February 2025

[MJO812]

Gfs back to shannigans

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

he's also in a prime spot for being in New England.  I think people in New England have a lot to be excited about (and looking at their forum posts they definitely are.) I just don't know how much of that we get, but if we get a few inches of snow here and there, I think we should be happy down here.  If we somehow make it to 20 inches of seasonal snowfall down here by the end of the season, that should be considered a win. It won't be a historic or great snowfall season but if we get close to average, we should be happy.

 

 

Truth be told I live in New England too in Easton Connecticut.

[wishcast_hater]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs back to shannigans

Please elaborate.

[LibertyBell]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This looks like the first 5 SD 500 mb block near Greenland during the winter since February 2021.  So the million dollar question is whether our best snowfall opportunities will occur prior to and around the peak in mid-February or after. Back in 2021 when the AO went -5 the best snows came in before the block and not after it peaked. This is pretty much unknowable at this point.

But at the very least the magnitude of the block now argues for a colder than average February. Before the models started showing the block they were going for +1 to +2 pattern in the means for February. So this could be the first winter since 2002-2003 with all 3 winter months having a cold departure. We are now pretty much assured of having our first colder winter here since 2014-2015.

Regardless of the snowfall outcome, this block will be impressive even if doesn’t couple with the stratosphere. So more of a bottom up event. Longer range the models have the AO block weakening in later February and giving way to more of  +PNA which is pretty rare for a La Niña February.

5 SD 500 mb anomaly one of the most impressive of 2020s so far

 

 

2002-03 was our last wall to wall winter, it's in a completely different category from this winter..... was that the last time we had DJFMA all colder than normal? I'm pretty sure it was the last time all of those months had snowfalls.  It was only bested by 1995-96 when we had snowfalls in NDJFMA a record 6 months in a row.

 

[EastonSN+]

GFS has the closest thing to a KU we can get. The only caveat is the changeover gets pretty far north again to about Central Jersey but given it's out there in time the details don't matter there is a banana high and a lot of moisture coming north.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Please elaborate.

Big snowstorm next weekend 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Truth be told I live in New England too in Easton Connecticut.

Yes, a perfect example of the differences between our latitude and New England is March 2001.  We had about 2-4 inches of snow here in March 2001, a major disappointment.  But as soon as you got a few miles north, Bridgeport had like a foot of snow.  Going east also helped, as parts of Suffolk County also had about a foot of snow.  

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

GFS has the closest thing to a KU we can get. The only caveat is the changeover gets pretty far north again to about Central Jersey but given it's out there in time the details don't matter there is a banana high and a lot of moisture coming north.

This is for next Tuesday?

 

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This is for next Tuesday?

 

No it's further out in time but it's more in line with the optimal time frame where the blocking becomes more established. Check out the high pressures and the slug of moisture.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

No it's further out in time but it's more in line with the optimal time frame where the blocking becomes more established. Check out the high pressures and the slug of moisture.

Wild, that looks a lot like PD2.  This is actually for Presidents Day weekend too.  The High to our north is in a prime position too and not moving offshore.

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wild, that looks a lot like PD2.  This is actually for Presidents Day weekend too.  The High to our north is in a prime position too and not moving offshore.

That confluence to the Northeast of Canada is holding the high pressures in place.

[MJO812]

Great gfs run

[LibertyBell]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

That confluence to the Northeast of Canada is holding the high pressures in place.

So the mix line south of us isn't much of a worry because there is arctic air pressing down?

That's what made PD2 a HECS, that arctic air resulted in high ratio snow, we got 26 inches at JFK.

[brooklynwx99]

24 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs back to shannigans

amazing Irish pub

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

So the mix line south of us isn't much of a worry because there is arctic air pressing down?

That's what made PD2 a HECS, that arctic air resulted in high ratio snow, we got 26 inches at JFK.

It will change 100 times and change dates too if it occurs but here is as far north as the mix gets. That dark red south of Long Island is extremely heavy snow.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

It will change 100 times and change dates too if it occurs but here is as far north as the mix gets. That dark red south of Long Island is extremely heavy snow.

The ending 

[EastonSN+]

Normally I wouldn't post maps like that that far in advance however just wanted to show the models perhaps are picking up on the blocking that is setting up in that time frame

[MJO812]

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

It will change 100 times and change dates too if it occurs but here is as far north as the mix gets. That dark red south of Long Island is extremely heavy snow.

The heaviest snow is usually just north of the mix line.  It will be interesting to see what the Euro and other models show.

[bluewave]

48 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I thought you said this pattern wouldn’t last long and this February would be warmer then avg with the Nina? 

That was based on the modeling at the end of last week before the -AO block started showing up. The first week of February so far has indeed been warmer than average and followed the La Niña script. But the wave break with the record low east of Hudson Bay shifted the whole pattern going forward. Models still have the -AO block peaking next week and gradually weakening later in the month as the block retrogrades back into +PNA.

[brooklynwx99]

I still think the greatest potential with this pattern exists around the 20th as the block fully retrogrades and weakens. just drool worthy synoptics with the TPV in SE Canada, west based -NAO ridging, and a vort showing up in the Rockies

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I still think the greatest potential with this pattern exists around the 20th as the block fully retrogrades and weakens. just drool worthy synoptics with the TPV in SE Canada, west based -NAO ridging, and a vort showing up in the Rockies

Meh. Get it within 5 days

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Meh. Get it within 5 days

lol this is much more fitting for the NYC subforum than the MA subforum where you often post

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Meh. Get it within 5 days

Mjo isn't even in 8 yet. Be patient

 

[bluewave]

46 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

2002-03 was our last wall to wall winter, it's in a completely different category from this winter..... was that the last time we had DJFMA all colder than normal? I'm pretty sure it was the last time all of those months had snowfalls.  It was only bested by 1995-96 when we had snowfalls in NDJFMA a record 6 months in a row.

 

2002-2003 was the last time that all of our climate sites had all 3 winter months with a negative temperature departure. But that was during a much colder climate normals period. So it’s easier to get a cold departure now with the much warmer normals. Since a cold departure now like during December would have been warm using the older climate normals period. Some of our stations had 3 in a row during 09-10 and others like Newark didn’t. This winter JFK finished above average back in December and Newark just managed a slight negative departure of -0.1. So nothing like the magnitude experienced in 2002-2003. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol this is much more fitting for the NYC subforum than the MA subforum where you often post

K. Let's revisit this in 13 days. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

K. Let's revisit this in 13 days. 

Okay

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Okay

Those are pretty but are talkng indices verifying or actual meaningful wintry westher? I.am focused on the latter. Dont  care if the ao is -6 SD if it isn't going to produce. 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Those are pretty but are talkng indices verifying or actual meaningful wintry westher? I.am focused on the latter. Dont  care if the ao is -6 SD if it isn't going to produce. 

I have no clue why people are so negative? This winter has been different than the past few winters with the cold air around. Now we are getting the precip.  Patience.

[SnoSki14]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I have no clue why people are so negative? This winter has been different than the past few winters with the cold air around. Now we are getting the precip.  Patience.

People want results instead of pretty Day 10+ maps. 

You can scream epic or amazing pattern all you want but unless something happens it's just fantasy.

Our amazing January pattern gave us almost nothing