February 2025

[wdrag]

Moderators:  Probably good to pin 2/11-15.  I wont be thinking about 2/16-17 or anything beyond, until we get to Valentines Day and see what has happened between 2/8 and Valentines Day morning.  There's enough track the next week or so.

Hope everyone I84 corridor has plenty of snowblower gas and from what I can tell,  looks like NYC-LI may need some of that as well. 

Anything 2/16 and later should stay right here in the Feb thread, until we can get through much of next week. 

[EastonSN+]

36 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Still looks good to have a favorable pattern to the end of the month. 

Way out there but there is a PNA out west with blocking to the north here. Suppression would be the obvious risk here not cutter. That being said wow.

[anthonymm]

31 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Explain why it misses south and explain why it will be cutter city - at least when snowman wants to rain on everyone's parade he adds his scientific reasoning.

Trend is (not) your friend. Recent trends on both globals have been for weaker and suppressed. As for why cutters after, well we're in the 7 day range now and absolutely every model has everything after 1/12 cutting inland. Pretty simple.

[anthonymm]

20 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

It would be the ultimate Charlie Brown and/or kick in the nuts if we can't cash in on this pattern. Not like it's pinning our hopes on one storm so there's multiple chances. I'm always skeptical until we can hone in on a consensus roughly 3 days out but it's hard not to get at least a little excited by the possibilities.

The under always wins in recent years. If you have predicted significantly less snow for the area than what every model shows you'd have been right every single time since 2022.

[Franklin0529]

5 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Trend is (not) your friend. Recent trends on both globals have been for weaker and suppressed. As for why cutters after, well we're in the 7 day range now and absolutely every model has everything after 1/12 cutting inland. Pretty simple.

The GFS an euro EPS and gefs both are looking decent for a 6"+ snowfall Tuesday. What are you even talking about 

[vegan_edible]

7 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

The GFS an euro EPS and gefs both are looking decent for a 6"+ snowfall Tuesday. What are you even talking about 

this is the convo you're engaging with. 

 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Ok, rank your excitement on a scale of 1 to Cantore-Thundersnow for next week vs. the mid-Jan pattern that was quite cold and produced some snow for our area, but had two major storm miss us to the south.  :>)

The mid January pattern absolutely SUCKED! If we are only going to get 3 inches of snow for the entire month, I'd much rather it be in the 50s for the rest of the month.  Cold and dry is awful.

 

[North and West]

The mid January pattern absolutely SUCKED! If we are only going to get 3 inches of snow for the entire month, I'd much rather it be in the 50s for the rest of the month.  Cold and dry is awful.
 

I think it’s good for pest control, though. Not great for the drought.


.

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, North and West said:

I think it’s good for pest control, though. Not great for the drought.


.

You're most definitely right! I hope it means less spiders and mosquitos in the spring and summer.  I hope that cold and snowy stretch down south killed the Joro spiders too.

I'm not looking forward to spring, each of the last 3 years I've had at least one carpenter bee somehow make it into my house in May.

[MJO812]

Total snowfall on icon 

[EastonSN+]

4 hours ago, poolz1 said:

6Z GEFS moved toward the CMC ens look posted above.  Vey nice PAC pattern with everything else looking ripe as well.  

That is as close to a perfect look as you will see. Suppression less of an issue due to the Western Atlantic ridge, negative EPO bleeding into the PNA region. Trough in the middle of the country working with the Western Atlantic ridge to pull moisture up. Blocking far enough South to help mitigate suppression.

[eduggs]

I would pay money to never have to accidentally glance at a 300+hr anomaly chart.

[LibertyBell]

40 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

That is as close to a perfect look as you will see. Suppression less of an issue due to the Western Atlantic ridge, negative EPO bleeding into the PNA region. Trump in the middle of the country working with the Western Atlantic ridge to pull moisture up. Blocking far enough South to help mitigate suppression.

Thanks for the laugh lol

 

[eduggs]

On 2/3/2025 at 2:16 PM, eduggs said:

On 2/3/2025 at 2:11 PM, Allsnow said:

Frz rain will not be a issue around the metro 

Maybe not in Manhattan. But there were two icing events in the past week just outside of the concrete jungle. The upcoming "pattern" produces overrunning waves. That means mid-level warm layers and a ZR risk. The southwest mid-level flow and lack of strong SLP just make it harder to get heavy precipitation and a snow-supporting column together at the same time for more than a few hours.

 

[Allsnow]

21 minutes ago, eduggs said:

 

Did I miss the ice storm? 

[eduggs]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Did I miss the ice storm? 

Who said anything about an ice STORM?

[EastonSN+]

12 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Biggest potential on the extended EPS looks like the 30 day period  between February 18 and March 18.

Actually looks a lot like January's cold outbreak, albeit a bit muted.

[EastonSN+]

19 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest EPS extended.  Great potential in the upcoming weeks.

Extended so we all know the caveats. Would rather it show this than the opposite. 

Disclaimer, snowfall depiction does not guarantee snowfall in your backyard. Please review responsibly.

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Possible yes but EPS still looks amazing just have to get through the transition cutters potentially the 13-17th..  classic KU pattern post the 17th 

Great post by Seymour snow. Please know that part of that sub forum includes Fairfield county Connecticut only a few miles from New York City. 

[SnoSki14]

Pattern looks quite favorable rest of February and probably into March.

In fact it gets more favorable as the days drag on.

Not everything will be a hit but there will be many opportunities 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Pattern looks quite favorable rest of February and probably into March.

In fact it gets more favorable as the days drag on.

Not everything will be a hit but there will be many opportunities 

Weeklies are loaded into mid March

[donsutherland1]

Clouds will increase tomorrow. A storm will bring snow to the region tomorrow night into Sunday. New York City, Long Island, and coastal areas will likely see the snow change to sleet and then a period of rain or freezing rain. New York City and its nearby suburbs will likely see 2"-4" of snow. Areas well to the north and west of New York City will pick up 4"-8" with a few locally higher figures.

Another storm could affect the region during the middle of next week. Its exact track will be crucial to determining whether the region is merely grazed by the storm with a light accumulation or experiences a moderate to perhaps significant snowfall.

No exceptional warmth or cold is likely through at least February 14th. A generally colder outcome appears more likely than not during the second half of February. Precipitation will likely be near or somewhat above normal.

The NAO is likely to remain at +1.000 or above through the first 10 days of February. Since 1950, just 1 of 18 (6%) of storms with an NAO of +0.900 or above saw 6" or more snow in New York City. That storm occurred with an AO of -1.769.  As a result, prospects for a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City area will likely be limited through the first 10 days of February. The low probability of a 6" or above snowstorm does not mean that there cannot be snowfall or that there won't be snowfall. Smaller events are possible, as occurred on February 2 and February 6.

After February 10th, there could be a window of opportunity for a larger event, possibly 6" or more. The forecast pattern has some similarities with that February 8-9, 1994 when New York City picked up 9.0" of snow. However, the air mass during 1994 was substantially colder than the one that is forecast for next week. The exact synoptic details will be crucial to the outcome.

In general, patterns provide insight into potential. Synoptic details determine whether the potential is realized.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.13°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was +32.66 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.349 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.1° (2.8° below normal).

 

[North and West]

Pattern looks quite favorable rest of February and probably into March.
In fact it gets more favorable as the days drag on.
Not everything will be a hit but there will be many opportunities 

have we discussed the sun angle


.

[uofmiami]

1 minute ago, North and West said:

have we discussed the sun angle


.

That's a mid-March problem.

[bluewave]

56 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Pattern looks quite favorable rest of February and probably into March.

In fact it gets more favorable as the days drag on.

Not everything will be a hit but there will be many opportunities 

This looks like the first 5 SD 500 mb block near Greenland during the winter since February 2021.  So the million dollar question is whether our best snowfall opportunities will occur prior to and around the peak in mid-February or after. Back in 2021 when the AO went -5 the best snows came in before the block and not after it peaked. This is pretty much unknowable at this point.

But at the very least the magnitude of the block now argues for a colder than average February. Before the models started showing the block they were going for +1 to +2 pattern in the means for February. So this could be the first winter since 2002-2003 with all 3 winter months having a cold departure. We are now pretty much assured of having our first colder winter here since 2014-2015.

Regardless of the snowfall outcome, this block will be impressive even if doesn’t couple with the stratosphere. So more of a bottom up event. Longer range the models have the AO block weakening in later February and giving way to more of  +PNA which is pretty rare for a La Niña February.

5 SD 500 mb anomaly one of the most impressive of 2020s so far

 

 

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This looks like the first 5 SD 500 mb block near Greenland during the winter since February 2021.  So the million dollar question is whether our best snowfall opportunities will occur prior to and around the peak in mid-February or after. Back in 2021 when the AO went -5 the best snows came in before the block and not after it peaked. This is pretty much unknowable at this point.

But at the very least the magnitude of the block now argues for a colder than average February. Before the models started showing the block they were going for +1 to +2 pattern in the means for February. So this could be the first winter since 2002-2003 with all 3 winter months having a cold departure. We are now pretty much assured of having our first colder winter here since 2014-2015.

Regardless of the snowfall outcome, this block will be impressive even if doesn’t couple with the stratosphere. So more of a bottom up event. Longer range the models have the AO block weakening in later February and giving way to more of  +PNA which is pretty rare for a La Niña February.

5 SD 500 mb anomaly one of the most impressive of 2020s so far

 

 

You're in a prime spot for the next event this weekend being further east.

The weeklies did show the favorable pattern lasting into mid-march. Devil is in the details of course and past success does not guarantee future results.

[LibertyBell]

54 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Clouds will increase tomorrow. A storm will bring snow to the region tomorrow night into Sunday. New York City, Long Island, and coastal areas will likely see the snow change to sleet and then a period of rain or freezing rain. New York City and its nearby suburbs will likely see 2"-4" of snow. Areas well to the north and west of New York City will pick up 4"-8" with a few locally higher figures.

Another storm could affect the region during the middle of next week. Its exact track will be crucial to determining whether the region is merely grazed by the storm with a light accumulation or experiences a moderate to perhaps significant snowfall.

No exceptional warmth or cold is likely through at least February 14th. A generally colder outcome appears more likely than not during the second half of February. Precipitation will likely be near or somewhat above normal.

The NAO is likely to remain at +1.000 or above through the first 10 days of February. Since 1950, just 1 of 18 (6%) of storms with an NAO of +0.900 or above saw 6" or more snow in New York City. That storm occurred with an AO of -1.769.  As a result, prospects for a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City area will likely be limited through the first 10 days of February. The low probability of a 6" or above snowstorm does not mean that there cannot be snowfall or that there won't be snowfall. Smaller events are possible, as occurred on February 2 and February 6.

After February 10th, there could be a window of opportunity for a larger event, possibly 6" or more. The forecast pattern has some similarities with that February 8-9, 1994 when New York City picked up 9.0" of snow. However, the air mass during 1994 was substantially colder than the one that is forecast for next week. The exact synoptic details will be crucial to the outcome.

In general, patterns provide insight into potential. Synoptic details determine whether the potential is realized.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.13°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was +32.66 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.349 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.1° (2.8° below normal).

 

the colder than normal February is a shocker, when was the last time all three months DJF were below normal? and DJFM if all four months are colder than normal?

 

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

You're in a prime spot for the next event this weekend being further east.

The weeklies did show the favorable pattern lasting into mid-march. Devil is in the details of course and past success does not guarantee future results.

he's also in a prime spot for being in New England.  I think people in New England have a lot to be excited about (and looking at their forum posts they definitely are.) I just don't know how much of that we get, but if we get a few inches of snow here and there, I think we should be happy down here.  If we somehow make it to 20 inches of seasonal snowfall down here by the end of the season, that should be considered a win. It won't be a historic or great snowfall season but if we get close to average, we should be happy.

 

 

[Allsnow]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This looks like the first 5 SD 500 mb block near Greenland during the winter since February 2021.  So the million dollar question is whether our best snowfall opportunities will occur prior to and around the peak in mid-February or after. Back in 2021 when the AO went -5 the best snows came in before the block and not after it peaked. This is pretty much unknowable at this point.

But at the very least the magnitude of the block now argues for a colder than average February. Before the models started showing the block they were going for +1 to +2 pattern in the means for February. So this could be the first winter since 2002-2003 with all 3 winter months having a cold departure. We are now pretty much assured of having our first colder winter here since 2014-2015.

Regardless of the snowfall outcome, this block will be impressive even if doesn’t couple with the stratosphere. So more of a bottom up event. Longer range the models have the AO block weakening in later February and giving way to more of  +PNA which is pretty rare for a La Niña February.

5 SD 500 mb anomaly one of the most impressive of 2020s so far

 

 

I thought you said this pattern wouldn’t last long and this February would be warmer then avg with the Nina? 

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

You're in a prime spot for the next event this weekend being further east.

The weeklies did show the favorable pattern lasting into mid-march. Devil is in the details of course and past success does not guarantee future results.

Being in New England will definitely guarantee results lol.