February 2025

[gravitylover]

55 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said:

Wait till we get a good dose of rain there’s more salt on the street than any snow we got this year. White gold for me. Busy times ahead. 

Do you own a car wash or a body shop? Those are the only businesses that benefit from so much road salt.

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

9 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Do you own a car wash or a body shop? Those are the only businesses that benefit from so much road salt.

I work for coned I am the one repairing the manhole fires. 

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Do you own a car wash or a body shop? Those are the only businesses that benefit from so much road salt.

I hope someone sues these people for damaging their cars.

The only thing that's going to stop those buffoons from putting out so much road salt is a big lawsuit.

And I'm here for it.

 

[bluewave]

20 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

meh I hope that ends up wrong, I want my historically dry January

The storm track pattern is shifting back to the Great Lakes now that the Southeast Ridge is making a comeback. So warmer storm tracks are now the risk rather than suppression. At least we can use the rainfall which is preferable to a dry suppression pattern.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The storm track pattern is shifting back to the Great Lakes now that the Southeast Ridge is making a comeback. So warmer storm tracks are now the risk rather than suppression. At least we can use the rainfall which is preferable to a dry suppression pattern.

It's really weird to see the models bust so badly and not in the long range either.  5 days out they had a big arctic outbreak for Thursday and Friday and this event wasn't supposed to come in until Saturday.  So we all thought the SE Ridge would wait until February 1st.

 

[EastonSN+]

No changes from yesterday. Still on track to reach phase 8 by the end of February. Also by mid-February the RNA that will occur will no longer be as detrimental to snowfall. 

 

[snowman19]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The storm track pattern is shifting back to the Great Lakes now that the Southeast Ridge is making a comeback. So warmer storm tracks are now the risk rather than suppression. At least we can use the rainfall which is preferable to a dry suppression pattern.

I talked about it in the La Niña thread, but I’m really doubting a big -NAO/-AO blocking come back in March like some are musing on twitter. All the La Niña March’s that ended up with -NAO/-AO blocking had legit major to even historic (2018) SSWEs. There are no signs of that (major SSW) on any modeling right now through at least mid-February. I’m not really seeing a mechanism on the modeling through mid-February that would cause a big upward heat flux from the troposphere to cause such an event, there’s nothing to indicate a top down (downwelling) warming either. Guess we’ll have to see but as of today, I am very skeptical of some big flip to -AO/-NAO blocking at the tail end of next month into March without a major stratospheric warming

[jm1220]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I talked about it in the La Niña thread, but I’m really doubting a big -NAO/-AO blocking come back in March like some are musing on twitter. All the La Niña March’s that ended up with -NAO/-AO blocking had legit major to even historic (2018) SSWEs. There are no signs of that (major SSW) on any modeling right now through at least mid-February. I’m not really seeing a mechanism on the modeling through mid-February that would cause a big upward heat flux from the troposphere to cause such an event, there’s nothing to indicate a top down (downwelling) warming either. Guess we’ll have to see but as of today, I am very skeptical of some big flip to -AO/-NAO blocking at the tail end of next month into March without a major stratospheric warming

Awesome, hopefully early Spring. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Awesome, hopefully early Spring. 

Hopefully the warmth starts in February and goes all year 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Hopefully the warmth starts in February and goes all year 

Eww who wants that ? We have enough warm months.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Awesome, hopefully early Spring. 

It's going to become so quiet in here unless something historic happens (could be anything, historic rainfall, historic dryness, historic high temperatures, etc.)

[LibertyBell]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Eww who wants that ? We have enough warm months.

Saves on heating costs though.

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I talked about it in the La Niña thread, but I’m really doubting a big -NAO/-AO blocking come back in March like some are musing on twitter. All the La Niña March’s that ended up with -NAO/-AO blocking had legit major to even historic (2018) SSWEs. There are no signs of that (major SSW) on any modeling right now through at least mid-February. I’m not really seeing a mechanism on the modeling through mid-February that would cause a big upward heat flux from the troposphere to cause such an event, there’s nothing to indicate a top down (downwelling) warming either. Guess we’ll have to see but as of today, I am very skeptical of some big flip to -AO/-NAO blocking at the tail end of next month into March without a major stratospheric warming

Snowman doesn't think winter will be back ? Wow shocking .

Everyone get your shovels ready

[EastonSN+]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I talked about it in the La Niña thread, but I’m really doubting a big -NAO/-AO blocking come back in March like some are musing on twitter. All the La Niña March’s that ended up with -NAO/-AO blocking had legit major to even historic (2018) SSWEs. There are no signs of that (major SSW) on any modeling right now through at least mid-February. I’m not really seeing a mechanism on the modeling through mid-February that would cause a big upward heat flux from the troposphere to cause such an event, there’s nothing to indicate a top down (downwelling) warming either. Guess we’ll have to see but as of today, I am very skeptical of some big flip to -AO/-NAO blocking at the tail end of next month into March without a major stratospheric warming

There's another way to get to a good snowfall setup without an sswe. If we can get the mjo to phase 8 which it's moving in that direction, we do not need the aforementioned sswe. Also as we know the volatility that is associated with late February and March can lead to bowling ball Lows which can take a favorable track and have high intensity. 

Not saying it's definite, or predicting/calling for a snowy period, however, the wave is definitely heading toward phase 8 and that is a colder phase.

So I believe the right call at this point in time is that it is unlikely to have an sswe, however, we are likely heading toward a colder phase of the mjo and therefore we may have another 2 to 4 week period which is conducive to snowfall. 

Just like we can't definitely say we're heading toward a snowy period, we cannot definitively say that we are going to torch and the Southeast ridge is going to rule, and for some reason the mjo is just going to fall flat and not continue moving to phase eight (intensity can fluctuate wherever it'll still move there).

Unless there is some research to the contrary, I am happy to take a look (i.e. analogs matching the current setup, mjo inclusive, which state 75% of the time in the current conditions we had zero snowfall and above normal temps through March).

[vegan_edible]

honestly, as january comes to a close i think its normal that we'd like to see some warmth. my seasonal depression is at an all time high and with no *legitimate* snowfall opportunities on the horizon i hope for some warmth. toss a 3-5" event in there somewhere and i think we're all happy. 

 

the most snow ive seen this season was when I was in albany for the holidays, snowed multiple times. that kinda made up for the past few dumpster fire winters we've had down here. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, vegan_edible said:

honestly, as january comes to a close i think its normal that we'd like to see some warmth. my seasonal depression is at an all time high and with no *legitimate* snowfall opportunities on the horizon i hope for some warmth. toss a 3-5" event in there somewhere and i think we're all happy. 

 

the most snow ive seen this season was when I was in albany for the holidays, snowed multiple times. that kinda made up for the past few dumpster fire winters we've had down here. 

that's why my favorite kind of climate is snow without much cold.  In other words, get a lot of snow but let it be warm and sunny in between snowstorms.  Snowcover for a week or so is nice, but I don't want it to be cold for an entire month.  And I absolutely hate rain, so when it's not snowing it should be sunny :-)

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

No changes from yesterday. Still on track to reach phase 8 by the end of February. Also by mid-February the RNA that will occur will no longer be as detrimental to snowfall. 

 

To help avoid confusion the below aligns with the wave progression of the previous snip. 

[psv88]

Time to close the shades for a few weeks. I’m sure we will get a few inches of slop in February or March but it isn’t looking good!

[SnowGoose69]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The storm track pattern is shifting back to the Great Lakes now that the Southeast Ridge is making a comeback. So warmer storm tracks are now the risk rather than suppression. At least we can use the rainfall which is preferable to a dry suppression pattern.

 

I would not even call this a SE ridge.  This is more of just a broad southern US ridge...most warmth will be centered more in places like OK/TX/AR/KS the next 2 weeks than SC/GA/FL/AL.  This pattern looks more El Nino like to me over the US than it does La Nina

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

I would not even call this a SE ridge.  This is more of just a broad southern US ridge...most warmth will be centered more in places like OK/TX/AR/KS the next 2 weeks than SC/GA/FL/AL.  This pattern looks more El Nino like to me over the US than it does La Nina

The ridge emerges in the Southern Plains first than expands eastward over time through the Southeast and eventually Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. 

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, vegan_edible said:

honestly, as january comes to a close i think its normal that we'd like to see some warmth. my seasonal depression is at an all time high and with no *legitimate* snowfall opportunities on the horizon i hope for some warmth. toss a 3-5" event in there somewhere and i think we're all happy. 

 

the most snow ive seen this season was when I was in albany for the holidays, snowed multiple times. that kinda made up for the past few dumpster fire winters we've had down here. 

Average IMBY is low to mid-30 inches of snow a year. That’s not happening without a miracle turnaround. I have 8” or so and looking at goose-egg in the near future. I’m sure there will be another snow system before spring to get most of us to 10”+ but that’s still way below average and we’re getting closer to the time of year where it won’t stick around for long. So I’m fine with it being warm enough to do activities outside and just be done with another fail winter, 3 failures in a row. Get it out of here if it won’t snow, and this winter had the added kick in the teeth of it being snowy to our south. Hopefully we do get some needed rain to refill the reservoirs and water table for summer. 

[Allsnow]

37 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Time to close the shades for a few weeks. I’m sure we will get a few inches of slop in February or March but it isn’t looking good!

All that is left for this winter is reading posts from people chasing the p8 mjo and Bluewave on repeat 

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

There's another way to get to a good snowfall setup without an sswe. If we can get the mjo to phase 8 which it's moving in that direction, we do not need the aforementioned sswe. Also as we know the volatility that is associated with late February and March can lead to bowling ball Lows which can take a favorable track and have high intensity. 

Not saying it's definite, or predicting/calling for a snowy period, however, the wave is definitely heading toward phase 8 and that is a colder phase.

So I believe the right call at this point in time is that it is unlikely to have an sswe, however, we are likely heading toward a colder phase of the mjo and therefore we may have another 2 to 4 week period which is conducive to snowfall. 

Just like we can't definitely say we're heading toward a snowy period, we cannot definitively say that we are going to torch and the Southeast ridge is going to rule, and for some reason the mjo is just going to fall flat and not continue moving to phase eight (intensity can fluctuate wherever it'll still move there).

Unless there is some research to the contrary, I am happy to take a look (i.e. analogs matching the current setup, mjo inclusive, which state 75% of the time in the current conditions we had zero snowfall and above normal temps through March).

My memory is poor, but I thought we were moving towards a phase 8 last winter, then just disappeared?

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

My memory is poor, but I thought we were moving towards a phase 8 last winter, then just disappeared?

Yep the "big pattern" was going to show up in mid Feb and go for a month-what we got was a few days of cold and a couple small snow events then right back to the warmth that had dominated the winter

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

All that is left for this winter is reading posts from people chasing the p8 mjo and Bluewave on repeat 

We've been chasing the mostly elusive Ph 8 MJO for about 5 yrs now, why stop?

[EastonSN+]

27 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

My memory is poor, but I thought we were moving towards a phase 8 last winter, then just disappeared?

What sometimes occurs is the wave will weaken and become ineffective, or as they say go into the cod. 

However looking at the snip I provided originally, while weakening, the wave looks to have enough amplitude to have a downstream effect.

On a side note, Don mentioned that shorter wavelengths, starting mid-February, can counter the effects of an RNA (the driver of the dreaded southeast ridge). 

Last year there was a lot of discussion about the warm Waters around Indonesia and north of Australia causing a perpetual phase four five six. However this year the warm Waters seem to have little effect on the mjo, not sure entirely why however this year we got into phase 1 with a good amplitude which we could not do last year. Perhaps the waters there are starting to cool or water in other locations are rising therefore allowing for the wave to continue.

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Yep the "big pattern" was going to show up in mid Feb and go for a month-what we got was a few days of cold and a couple small snow events then right back to the warmth that had dominated the winter

Those were two good snow events here, a 4.5 incher and a 6 incher in the same week!  

[LibertyBell]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

What sometimes occurs is the wave will weaken and become ineffective, or as they say go into the cod. 

However looking at the snip I provided originally, while weakening, the wave looks to have enough amplitude to have a downstream effect.

On a side note, Don mentioned that shorter wavelengths, starting mid-February, can counter the effects of an RNA (the driver of the dreaded southeast ridge). 

Last year there was a lot of discussion about the warm Waters around Indonesia and north of Australia causing a perpetual phase four five six. However this year the warm Waters seem to have little effect on the mjo, not sure entirely why however this year we got into phase 1 with a good amplitude which we could not do last year. Perhaps the waters there are starting to cool or water in other locations are rising therefore allowing for the wave to continue.

People just focus on Central Park but if you look at JFK from last February, we had two moderate snowfalls in the same week 4.5 inches and 6 inches just a few days apart.

[snowman19]

45 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

All that is left for this winter is reading posts from people chasing the p8 mjo and Bluewave on repeat 

At least so far this winter, we haven’t been chasing phantom SSWE mirages on the long range models

[Brian5671]

18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Those were two good snow events here, a 4.5 incher and a 6 incher in the same week!  

We lucked out last year given that there were 10 days or so of "Real winter" we maximized snow potential on the brief cold shots.   This year plenty of cold, just no moisture