February 2025

[Stormlover74]

39 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I will say this, if this blocking is for real, once it decays and goes away, I think it’s full on, full bore spring, adios winter come early March. Which would be quite the change from the last many years 

So March of 2024 redux?

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah the perfect scenario is to have multiple snow events through the end of February then an early spring.

I'm totally fine with no/limited backdoor fronts season.

[EastonSN+]

17 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Lot of hits on WB 12Z EPS

Had to borrow from the Middle Atlantic forum. Please keep in mind 10 to 1 so sleet will bring it down a bit.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah the perfect scenario is to have multiple snow events through the end of February then an early spring.

even if this does happen there will be much melting in between. I don't see any kind of long sustained cold pattern like we had in January.

Thats probably a good thing

Highs in the 30s when it snows and highs in the 40s on the other days is just fine.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I will say this, if this blocking is for real, once it decays and goes away, I think it’s full on, full bore spring, adios winter come early March. Which would be quite the change from the last many years 

it sounds a lot like March 2010 (different enso phase but it describes the transition from February 2010 to March 2010 in the same way.)

 

[eduggs]

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Had to borrow from the Middle Atlantic forum. Please keep in mind 10 to 1 so sleet will bring it down a bit.

About 10% hit us solidly with multiple waves or one really big hit. In most of these cases we ride the boundary in a near ideal location for several days.The rest are one or more moderate hits with partial misses on the rest. I'd love to see the center of the action shift southeastward from NE, but I'm doubtful for now.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and brisk. Another system could bring snow changing to rain Saturday night into Sunday. New York City will likely see more snow than with today's storm (possibly a 1"-3"/2"-4" type event).

No exceptional warmth or cold is likely through at least February 14th. There remains uncertainty about the second half of the month with regard to temperature anomalies. Precipitation will likely be near or somewhat above normal.

The AO is positive and is expected to remain predominantly positive through the first week of February before falling sharply. Since 1950, just 2 of 19 (11%) of storms with an AO of +2.000 or above during January 15-February 15 saw 6" or more of snow in New York City. In addition, the NAO is likely to remain at +1.000 or above through the first 10-14 days of February. Since 1950, just 1 of 18 (6%) of storms with an NAO of +0.900 or above saw 6" or more snow in New York City. That storm occurred with an AO of -1.769.  As a result, prospects for a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City area will likely be limited through at least the first 10 days of February. The low probability of a 6" or above snowstorm does not mean that there cannot be snowfall or that there won't be snowfall. Smaller events are possible, as occurred on February 2 and today.

After February 10th, there could be a window of opportunity for a larger event, possibly 6" or more. The forecast pattern has some similarities with that February 8-9, 1994 when New York City picked up 9.0" of snow. However, the air mass during 1994 was substantially colder than the one that is forecast for next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.13°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was +31.65 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.259 today.

 

[MJO812]

[BoulderWX]

GFS with 7-10+ for almost everyone in the subforum. Verbatim it would be one that makes everyone happy 

[cleetussnow]

Just looked,   That thing only needed a modest bump north to get everyone into the warning criteria and here we go.  Good looking storm.

[wdrag]

Good afternoon all,

 

The new thread (2/11-15) that will incorporate two, possibly 3 events and will post between 730-8P.  A few of the graphics are ready but I want to steady myself with further checks and AI, all after I walk the dog and have dinner-a little tube time with my better half who tolerates my interest in wintry hazards.  This coming thread should satisfy next weeks 2 or 3 chances, and I see there are others later on. 

It's sloppy up here, max T 33,  0.6 sleet this morning.  I'll add a summary post to the 2/6 event tomorrow morning at 915AM in that thread.  

[MJO812]

So many snow events on gfs

[SnoSki14]

Just now, MJO812 said:

So many snow events on gfs

If next week works out then idc if it rains on Saturday 

[vegan_edible]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I will say this, if this blocking is for real, once it decays and goes away, I think it’s full on, full bore spring, adios winter come early March. Which would be quite the change from the last many years 

thank god for that. i dont really understand why folks like march snow. dont get me wrong im excited for these upcoming periods of tracking and hopefully scoring some snow. once march 1st hits i'd be happiest person on earth if it was 70 and sunny everyday

[SnoSki14]

Weenie happy hour GFS run

[BoulderWX]

13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Weenie happy hour GFS run

It would even get Central Park to 10” for the year…

…sorry, bad joke.

[BoulderWX]

27 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Good afternoon all,

 

The new thread (2/11-15) that will incorporate two, possibly 3 events and will post between 730-8P.  A few of the graphics are ready but I want to steady myself with further checks and AI, all after I walk the dog and have dinner-a little tube time with my better half who tolerates my interest in wintry hazards.  This coming thread should satisfy next weeks 2 or 3 chances, and I see there are others later on. 

It's sloppy up here, max T 33,  0.6 sleet this morning.  I'll add a summary post to the 2/6 event tomorrow morning at 915AM in that thread.  

Hahahaha I read this as “tub time with my better half” and was wondering what the hell you were doing on here if that was an option lol

tube time is also nice haha

[cleetussnow]

Whoa.  

[EastonSN+]

This is positive snow depth change and just through 294 lol.

[EastonSN+]

What's crazy is the pattern will likely last till the end of the month.

[MJO812]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

What's crazy is the pattern will likely last till the end of the month.

Or March 

[Franklin0529]

That GFS run was ran straight out of Anthony's basement. Holy shit

[hudsonvalley21]

50 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Good afternoon all,

 

The new thread (2/11-15) that will incorporate two, possibly 3 events and will post between 730-8P.  A few of the graphics are ready but I want to steady myself with further checks and AI, all after I walk the dog and have dinner-a little tube time with my better half who tolerates my interest in wintry hazards.  This coming thread should satisfy next weeks 2 or 3 chances, and I see there are others later on. 

It's sloppy up here, max T 33,  0.6 sleet this morning.  I'll add a summary post to the 2/6 event tomorrow morning at 915AM in that thread.  

Hope you enjoy your dinner and walk. It’s crazy that the GFS runs for the last several days have been pretty consistent with the QPF and snow amounts. What a pattern we are in.

 

[Snowlover11]

omg pants tent! gfs is wild!

[Nibor]

6 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Hope you enjoy your dinner and walk. It’s crazy that the GFS runs for the last several days have been pretty consistent with the QPF and snow amounts. What a pattern we are in.

 

[weatherpruf]

57 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Good afternoon all,

 

The new thread (2/11-15) that will incorporate two, possibly 3 events and will post between 730-8P.  A few of the graphics are ready but I want to steady myself with further checks and AI, all after I walk the dog and have dinner-a little tube time with my better half who tolerates my interest in wintry hazards.  This coming thread should satisfy next weeks 2 or 3 chances, and I see there are others later on. 

It's sloppy up here, max T 33,  0.6 sleet this morning.  I'll add a summary post to the 2/6 event tomorrow morning at 915AM in that thread.  

With my youngest starting a new job next week and having to drive on 287 I will be content to see every one of these events miss. New job said they only close for extreme weather....which in a lot of workplaces means only if the state orders nonessential workers to stay home....dear old dad would be pressed into service with the SUV, and I'd rather be doing something else......perspective does change over time...

[eduggs]

That was the best 10-day GFS run in a long long time IMO. The overall tenor isn't even that unlikely, especially with lower amplitude trofs and modest SLP that are less sensitive to error. But statistics say anything close to this is unlikely considering the standard model error beyond day 5. But wow.

[Nibor]

4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

With my youngest starting a new job next week and having to drive on 287 I will be content to see every one of these events miss. New job said they only close for extreme weather....which in a lot of workplaces means only if the state orders nonessential workers to stay home....dear old dad would be pressed into service with the SUV, and I'd rather be doing something else......perspective does change over time...

I'd be more concerned about PA drivers in normal weather.

[Yanksfan]

16 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Hope you enjoy your dinner and walk. It’s crazy that the GFS runs for the last several days have been pretty consistent with the QPF and snow amounts. What a pattern we are in.

 

Wow I would sign up for half of that and run with it!

[TriPol]

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

So March of 2024 redux?

As long as it's not March 2001.