forkyfork Posted Thursday at 03:45 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:45 PM laugh away. wait til they mess with data assimilation and your snowmaps get even less accurate 4 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Thursday at 03:45 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:45 PM Just now, forkyfork said: laugh away. wait til they mess with data assimilation and your snowmaps get even less accurate maybe we can use DeepSeek to make better snowmaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Thursday at 03:47 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:47 PM Icon a nice hit for Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted Thursday at 03:50 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:50 PM This month could be the end of the drought here as the Euro seasonal is wet right through the summer. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_rain?area=GLOB&base_time=202502010000&stats=tsum&valid_time=202506040000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted Thursday at 03:52 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:52 PM 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: maybe we can use DeepSeek to make better snowmaps. i can make a forecast using maps from ecmwf.int. i doubt the people downplaying elon musk's takeover can 5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Thursday at 04:04 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:04 PM 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: This month could be the end of the drought here as the Euro seasonal is wet right through the summer. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_rain?area=GLOB&base_time=202502010000&stats=tsum&valid_time=202506040000 what would keep that drought from migrating east, Chris? aren't summers during la ninas usually extremely hot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Thursday at 04:07 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:07 PM 15 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i can make a forecast using maps from ecmwf.int. i doubt the people downplaying elon musk's takeover can it's always the naive people who downplay everything 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted Thursday at 04:12 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:12 PM Gfs big hit for Wednesday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Thursday at 04:14 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:14 PM Just now, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: Gfs big hit for Wednesday Yeah, more Tuesday night into Wednesday now but a stronger system. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 04:14 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:14 PM 1 minute ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: Gfs big hit for Wednesday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Thursday at 04:14 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:14 PM 52 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Jim Cantore made a bold call today, he said by next Friday, all the snowfall deficits all along the I-95 corridor will be gone. LOL we’ll see. ISP should have 17.3” by now, they have 4.8”. Maybe they got 0.5” today so that would be 5.3”. We have a shot on Sat PM but 3-5” would be a big win here so I’ll go 2-3” most likely before slop/rain (and not much of a N trend needed until it’s another maybe coating to an inch while SNE/Hudson Valley are the ones happy) that gets them to 7.8”. So they’d need something to deliver them a foot or more next week since this is our prime snow period and what they should have is going up fastest of the winter. Odds are strongly against that. I have 10” with that fell today and I should probably have 20” by now. LGA has done fairly well, maybe they have a shot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted Thursday at 04:22 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:22 PM GFS 12+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 04:25 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:25 PM 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Then another wave . Snow inland and snow to rain coast. Maybe a 3rd wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted Thursday at 05:05 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:05 PM CMC and UKMET are nice hits for Tuesday as well. This looks like by far our best threat of the winter, but obviously 5 days out is a long way to go when talking about a winter storm threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Thursday at 05:19 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:19 PM Arctic blocking going insane on the GEFS 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Thursday at 05:23 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:23 PM 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: Arctic blocking going insane on the GEFS The beginning of the good period. Doesn't look like a risk of the SE ridge linking with the NAO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted Thursday at 05:39 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:39 PM Is it greedy to want all 4 waves next week? Tue - Sun 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 06:00 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:00 PM Gefs goes crazy again with snowfall totals throughout the run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted Thursday at 06:09 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:09 PM The PSL and CDC pages are back online. Apparently, it was power maintenance that was responsible for their having been down earlier. Here's the after-the-maintenance banner: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Thursday at 06:20 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:20 PM 19 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs goes crazy again with snowfall totals throughout the run. The block was much stronger on this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted Thursday at 06:23 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:23 PM 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: Arctic blocking going insane on the GEFS Shorts weather at the North Pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Thursday at 06:43 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:43 PM very good agreement on an anomalous, west-based -NAO, 50/50 ULL, and vort digging into the Rockies. if you're looking for a bigger storm, this is the timeframe to watch. makes sense, as retrograding Scandinavian blocks often lead to larger storms when they decay 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted Thursday at 06:55 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:55 PM 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: very good agreement on an anomalous, west-based -NAO, 50/50 ULL, and vort digging into the Rockies. if you're looking for a bigger storm, this is the timeframe to watch. makes sense, as retrograding Scandinavian blocks often lead to larger storms when they decay I’ll bite. IF that look is actually real, again, big if, because we are talking about 2/19 here, it would be primed for a KU event up the coast in the 2/20-2/23 time frame. The caveat obviously being that’s it’s 14 days out and the EPS has shown long range pot of gold at the end of the rainbow mirages that suddenly disappear in the past (i.e., last winter’s long range phantoms) 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted Thursday at 06:56 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:56 PM 30 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Shorts weather at the North Pole. Yup. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Thursday at 07:03 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:03 PM 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I’ll bite. IF that look is actually real, again, big if, because we are talking about 2/19 here, it would be primed for a KU event up the coast in the 2/20-2/23 time frame. The caveat obviously being that’s it’s 14 days out and the EPS has shown long range pot of gold at the end of the rainbow mirages that suddenly disappear in the past (i.e., last winter’s long range phantoms) luckily there is potential beforehand for snowfall. that's just when the pattern ends which is a ways away 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Thursday at 07:14 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:14 PM 9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: luckily there is potential beforehand for snowfall. that's just when the pattern ends which is a ways away If I am not mistaken the block continues to decay which should extend the period till the end of the month. Essentially one extra week. Happy to stand corrected if warranted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted Thursday at 07:36 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:36 PM 22 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: If I am not mistaken the block continues to decay which should extend the period till the end of the month. Essentially one extra week. Happy to stand corrected if warranted. I will say this, if this blocking is for real, once it decays and goes away, I think it’s full on, full bore spring, adios winter come early March. Which would be quite the change from the last many years 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted Thursday at 07:39 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:39 PM 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: I will say this, if this blocking is for real, once it decays and goes away, I think it’s full on, full bore spring, adios winter come early March. Which would be quite the change from the last many years I'd be ok with that scenario. Getting my business kicking a month early would be ok. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted Thursday at 07:40 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:40 PM Is it just me but I noticed when a model run shows the Saturday storm trend south, it pushes the Tuesday/Wednesday threat south due to the fact of the first wave lowering heights in its wake and vice versa. That would make it difficult to have an impactful event with both storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Thursday at 07:47 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:47 PM 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I will say this, if this blocking is for real, once it decays and goes away, I think it’s full on, full bore spring, adios winter come early March. Which would be quite the change from the last many years Yeah the perfect scenario is to have multiple snow events through the end of February then an early spring. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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