eduggs Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago CMC ens have 4 or 5 snow threats in the next 10 days. 0z showed a healthy ens mean for snow. Definitely uncommon. Of course it could fall apart quickly since 0z had us on the favorable side of the boundary from Sun to Sat next week. As everyone is well aware, if one feature is off four threats can turn into one tenuous threat really quickly. But the last time I remember a trackable period like this was in 2015 I think... so it's not that common. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago February 2021 was the last time we had a higher number of days in a calendar month with measurable snowfall in NYC. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of FebClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1964 11 0 - 1920 11 0 2 1926 10 0 3 1962 9 0 - 1924 9 0 - 1923 9 0 - 1916 9 0 4 2021 8 0 - 2014 8 0 - 1936 8 0 - 1914 8 0 5 2015 7 0 - 1994 7 0 - 1972 7 0 - 1950 7 0 - 1883 7 0 - 1879 7 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: Like I said when it’s within 72 hours I’ll get excited. The pattern upcoming has potential but we’ve seen plenty of examples of it falling apart. The ensemble agreement is encouraging. I think it's interesting because where we reside on the east coast, typically we don't jackpot in any scenario, we get the northern edge of storms that hit the DelMarVa and the southern edge of the storms that hit New England. Winters and storms where we get the most snow are very rare. You can see this reflected in the number of 20 inch snowstorms-- both Baltimore and Boston have had more 20 inch snowstorms than NYC has had. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 45 minutes ago, bluewave said: February 2021 was the last time we had a higher number of days in a calendar month with measurable snowfall in NYC. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of FebClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1964 11 0 - 1920 11 0 2 1926 10 0 3 1962 9 0 - 1924 9 0 - 1923 9 0 - 1916 9 0 4 2021 8 0 - 2014 8 0 - 1936 8 0 - 1914 8 0 5 2015 7 0 - 1994 7 0 - 1972 7 0 - 1950 7 0 - 1883 7 0 - 1879 7 0 Look at 1920 up there. February 1920 might have been our most anomalous storm of all time, even beyond March 1888 ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 46 minutes ago, bluewave said: February 2021 was the last time we had a higher number of days in a calendar month with measurable snowfall in NYC. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of FebClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1964 11 0 - 1920 11 0 2 1926 10 0 3 1962 9 0 - 1924 9 0 - 1923 9 0 - 1916 9 0 4 2021 8 0 - 2014 8 0 - 1936 8 0 - 1914 8 0 5 2015 7 0 - 1994 7 0 - 1972 7 0 - 1950 7 0 - 1883 7 0 - 1879 7 0 2014 and 2015 back to back were pretty great!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Big storm coming on gfs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Valentines day storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago The Tuesday storm is a miss south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Valentines day storm Great storm verbatim for SNE but we’d still cash in on a nice front end thump. 180+ so just another possibility at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Valentines day 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Valentines day storm Can't keep chasing day 10 storms 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Can't keep chasing day 10 storms No one is 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Canadian is a disaster. Whiffs storm 1 next week and nearly does the same for storm 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago I like the 9th and the 14th. VD is an auspicious date for storms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: No one is The Tuesday storm is a whiff now, so now your chasing vday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago And yes I know it's gonna change a hundred times more 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: The Tuesday storm is a whiff now, so now your chasing vday This is an active pattern with a lot of players to watch. every 3 days there is a wave to monitor since it's so supportive of storms. Don't turn your back on any one of them off of 1 model run! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: The Tuesday storm is a whiff now, so now your chasing vday Models don't know which wave to focus on. We are all tracking each wave. No one is forcing you to do so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Just now, cleetussnow said: This is an active pattern with a lot of players to watch. every 3 days there is a wave to monitor since it's so supportive of storms. Don't turn your back on any one of them off of 1 model run! Bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago This will end up as one storm, more like the 06Z AI shows. You might see some type of real wimpy weak front running wave as the AI also shows over NC/VA the day before, but this long drawn out slow multi wave idea I don't think happens 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJSnowman Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: The Tuesday storm is a whiff now, so now your chasing vday I know he said Valentines Day, but both the GFS and the CMC are showing that storm starting early on the 13th, and long gone by the 14th...so arguably only about seven and a half days away. Still long range...but not AS long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Models don't know which wave to focus on. We are all tracking each wave. No one is forcing you to do so. I agree here. One storm at a time. I'm just focusing on tonight into tomorrow morning first to see what happens. Colder/snowier outcome would probably lead to the same for next system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Hi! I've seen some comments on too many threads... When it rains it pours-so to speak, or in this case we've been begging for snow in NYC, but it doesn't all come at once. The various threads respond to the model prognosis and of course allow the obs for each event. I understand about pain... switching back and forth. The next thread will incorporate multiple days, and possibly 2 or 3 grazers, or one or 2 larger events. It will title something like this: "Discussion and OBS for the M-Fri Feb 10-14...1-3 wintry event(s)/or possibly a moderate-major winter storm" I do want to eliminate Feb 6 thread, before starting the latter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Anyone got gefs?? At work can't access Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Maybe it's just me but I can't get excited about possibilities a week to week and a half from now especially with such a parade of storms with one effecting the next, lots of volatility. Just too much has to go right to get real snowstorms here. Within 3 days with a snow depiction and that'll get my attention. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Gefs looks nice better than the op . Which one is usually more reliable at this time frame ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Just now, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: Gefs looks nice better than the op . Which one is usually more reliable at this time frame ? I’d use ensembles this far out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Looks like Tuesday is trending much drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Ukie is great for the area hopefully euro follows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Midday Wednesday 2/5 D7 ensembles from WPC. Holding steady. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago GEPS is ridiculous. has 15" on the mean with this pattern still in place 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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