February 2025

[MJO812]

Ai euro has 3 storms next week 

[Allsnow]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

February 11-12 will be the make of break moment for the entire winter so far around NYC Metro. That 0z OP Euro was similar to the multi day KU event at the same time around 2-11-94 with that gradient. So getting the gradient to settle just in the right spot will key here to getting a more memorable storm around NYC. It’s why we need these big KU events for normal to above normal seasonal snowfall. But we really have to take the next few storms first to see what the actual track will be. Since the exact wave spacing and gradient location left in the wake of the previous storms will determine whether we can get something really special or not. Just 30 miles can mean everything for a spot like NYC.

3 day snow mean of 7 inches for NYC is very impressive on the eps 

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris, do you think if we get enough snow in these first couple of events that will make the track for that one sink farther south?  2/11-13 is the peak of snowfall climo around here, many famous snowstorms occurred in this time period!

 

We don’t get many successful gradient patterns around here like in 2014 and 1994. So I am not sure yet where the gradient will settle for next week after the next two storms. Those years were much colder than this winter has been. It’s always a challenge when the Southeast Ridge is battling a -AO block over the top. 30 miles can make the difference from the I-78 corridor into NYC between a great pattern and a disappointing one.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

We don’t get many successful gradient patterns around here like in 2014 and 1994. So I am not sure yet where the gradient will settle for next week after the next two storms. Those years were much colder than their year so far. It’s always a challenge when the Southeast Ridge is battling a -AO block over the top. 30 miles can make the difference from the I-78 corridor into NYC between a great pattern and a disappointing one.

I remember 1993-94 was pretty unsuccessful for us in January, we had a lot of rainy or snow to mix storms and even a historic ice storm that month sandwiched in between two subzero arctic outbreaks, but then we had a big thaw at the end of January and all the ice melted and that reset the pattern for the snowy pattern in February and March.  Both of those February events were predicted to change to rain but came in with such a heavy thump that they either didn't change over at all or only did at the very end.  I personally enjoyed that first storm in February 1994 more because it was my first experience with thundersnow and absolutely amazing snowfall rates of 4 inches an hour from 10 am to noon and the ground went from bare to heavy snow cover!  It's probably the heaviest day time snow I'd seen until January 2016 and January 2018!

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I remember 1993-94 was pretty unsuccessful for us in January, we had a lot of rainy or snow to mix storms and even a historic ice storm that month sandwiched in between two subzero arctic outbreaks, but then we had a big thaw at the end of January and all the ice melted and that reset the pattern for the snowy pattern in February and March.  Both of those February events were predicted to change to rain but came in with such a heavy thump that they either didn't change over at all or only did at the very end.  I personally enjoyed that first storm in February 1994 more because it was my first experience with thundersnow and absolutely amazing snowfall rates of 4 inches an hour from 10 am to noon and the ground went from bare to heavy snow cover!  It's probably the heaviest day time snow I'd seen until January 2016 and January 2018!

The first Feb 94 event saw alot of freezing rain or drizzle on top after the initial thump with temps in the teens

[brooklynwx99]

this is as robust as you will ever see the EPS

[Allsnow]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

this is as robust as you will ever see the EPS

Wow

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is as robust as you will ever see the EPS

wow Boston guys must be really excited, 21 inches there? Never saw that before on the EPS or any ensemble means for that matter.

 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Wow

 

looks like a Weeklies run lmao

also the pattern is still well established at that time. block is maturing

[Allsnow]

Euro AI is a big hit for next week. It then has a follow up system that drops 3-6 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Euro AI is a big hit for next week. It then has a follow up system that drops 3-6 

Another system president weekend haha

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro AI is a big hit for next week. It then has a follow up system that drops 3-6 

Wave 1

[Allsnow]

Timing seems to be Tuesday morning into early Wednesday Am 

[SACRUS]

 

29 / 9 cold today first of what seems like 4 or 5 snow/mix or frozen precip opportunities Thu, followed by a brief warm up Friday to low or mid 40s.  #2 Saturday on the mix charts or snow to mix charts.  Brief warm up Sunday low mid 40s.  Colder by Monday then #3 or combo # 3 and 4 between Tueday Night and Valentines morning.  Beyond there still active.  1.5 to 2.2 inches or precip over the next 7 days and a decent portion may fall frozen.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:
 

EWR: 69 (1991)
NYC: 70 (1991)
LGA: 70 (1991)
JFK: 66 (1991)


Lows:

EWR: 3 (1996)
NYC: -6 (1918)
LGA: 6 (1995)
JFK: 7 (1996)

HIstorical:

1745: Today is National Weatherman/Meteorologist day, commemorating the birth of John Jeffries in 1745. Jeffries, one of America's first weather observers, began taking daily weather observations in Boston, MA, in 1774, and he made the first balloon observation in 1784. You can read a narrative from the Library of Congress of the two aerial voyages of Doctor Jeffries with Mons. Blanchard: with meteorological observations and remarks.  The first voyage was on November 13th, 1784, from London into Kent. The second was on January 7th, 1785, from England into France. 

1887 - San Francisco experienced its greatest snowstorm of record. Nearly four inches was reported in downtown San Francisco, and the western hills of the city received seven inches. Excited crowds went on a snowball throwing rampage. (David Ludlum)

 

1920: An intense nor'easter dumped 17.5 inches of snow over three days in New York City Central Park, New York. Boston, MA, saw 12.2 inches of snow on this day. 

 

1976: Record-breaking snowfall of just two inches fell in Sacramento, California. February 5, 1976, is the only time since November 1941 when snow was reported in Sacramento.

 

1986: A supercell thunderstorm tracked through the Tomball area northwest of Houston, TX, and produced four tornadoes along with damaging microburst winds and up to tennis ball size hail. An F3 tornado killed two people, injured 80 others, and devastated a mobile home park and the David Wayne Hooks Airport. In addition, 300 aircraft were either damaged or destroyed. Much of the more substantial hail was propelled by 60 to 80 mph winds, resulting in widespread moderate damage. The total damage from this storm was 80 million dollars.

1987 - Thunderstorms in the Southern Plains Region caused flooding in parts of south central Texas. Del Rio TX was soaked with two inches of rain in two hours prior to sunrise. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Cold and snow invaded the southern U.S. Roswell NM was buried under 16.5 inches of snow in 24 hours, an all-time record for that location. Parts of the Central Gulf Coast Region reported their first significant snow in fifteen years. Strong winds in Minnesota and the Dakotas produced wind chill readings as cold as 75 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Severe cold gripped much of the nation. Thirty cities reported new record low temperatures for the date. Morning lows of 9 above at Astoria OR and 27 below zero at Ely NV were records for February. In Alaska, Point Barrow warmed to 24 degrees above zero, and Nome reached 30 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - For the second time in two days, and the third time in a week, high winds plagued the northwestern U.S. Winds in Oregon gusted to 60 mph at Cape Disappointment, and wind gusts in Washington State reached 67 mph at Bellingham. The first in a series of cold fronts began to produce heavy snow in the mountains of Washington and Oregon. Ten inches of snow fell at Timberline OR. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2006 - Mount Washington Observatory in New Hampshire reaches a high of 41°F, the warmest February 5th on record at the summit and two degrees off the monthly mark, where records have been kept since 1932. The Weather Doctor

2008 - The deadliest round of tornadoes in nearly a quarter century kill 58 people in the south. The storms kill 32 people in Tennessee, 14 in Arkansas, seven in Kentucky and five in Alabama. Damage is likely to be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. The Weather Doctor

2008 - The Super Tuesday 2008 Tornado Outbreak has been one of the deadliest tornado outbreaks in the US, with 59 fatalities reported. So far, it ranks in the top 15 deadly tornado outbreaks (and the highest number of tornado deaths since 1985). According to the SPC Storm Reports, there were over 300 reports of tornadoes, large hail (up to 4.25 inches in diameter in Texas, Arkansas, and Missouri), and damaging wind gusts from Texas to Ohio and West Virginia. The outbreak produced at least 64 tornadoes, some producing EF-3 and EF-4 damage.

2010 - A mega-snowstorm, which President Obama dubbed Snowmageddon, buried the Washington D.C. area with more than 30 inches of snow in some areas. At American University in Washington the official snowfall was 27.5 inches. Snowfall totals in the Washington DC area range from a low of 17.9 inches at Ronald Reagan National Airport to 40 inches in the northern suburb of Colesville, MD. Dulles Airport reported 32.4 inches, which established a new two-day snowfall record. The Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD, measured 24.8 inches from the storm breaking the record for the largest two day snowfall there. It is one of the worst blizzards in the city's history.

[mahk_webstah]

47 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Many historic storms have occurred in a set up just like this

February 1983

January 1996

PD2 February 2003

January 2016

all our greatest hits....

 

 

The only one that seems similar to me is PD2.  That was a week low with very strong over running with a jet that was five standard deviations I think. February 83 and January 1996 were Miller A

[SACRUS]

 

How much will fall in the frozen variety

 

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Timing seems to be Tuesday morning into early Wednesday Am 

24 hour plus snowstorm?

[MJO812]

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Another system president weekend haha

Best thing is this is happening in February, not March.  (March 2018 pattern would have been much snowier in February.)

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:
 

EWR: 69 (1991)
NYC: 70 (1991)
LGA: (1991)
JFK: 66 (1991)


Lows:

EWR: 3 (1996)
NYC: -6 (1918)
LGA: 6 (1995)
JFK: 7 (1996)

HIstorical:

1745: Today is National Weatherman/Meteorologist day, commemorating the birth of John Jeffries in 1745. Jeffries, one of America's first weather observers, began taking daily weather observations in Boston, MA, in 1774, and he made the first balloon observation in 1784. You can read a narrative from the Library of Congress of the two aerial voyages of Doctor Jeffries with Mons. Blanchard: with meteorological observations and remarks.  The first voyage was on November 13th, 1784, from London into Kent. The second was on January 7th, 1785, from England into France. 

1887 - San Francisco experienced its greatest snowstorm of record. Nearly four inches was reported in downtown San Francisco, and the western hills of the city received seven inches. Excited crowds went on a snowball throwing rampage. (David Ludlum)

 

1920: An intense nor'easter dumped 17.5 inches of snow over three days in New York City Central Park, New York. Boston, MA, saw 12.2 inches of snow on this day. 

 

1976: Record-breaking snowfall of just two inches fell in Sacramento, California. February 5, 1976, is the only time since November 1941 when snow was reported in Sacramento.

 

1986: A supercell thunderstorm tracked through the Tomball area northwest of Houston, TX, and produced four tornadoes along with damaging microburst winds and up to tennis ball size hail. An F3 tornado killed two people, injured 80 others, and devastated a mobile home park and the David Wayne Hooks Airport. In addition, 300 aircraft were either damaged or destroyed. Much of the more substantial hail was propelled by 60 to 80 mph winds, resulting in widespread moderate damage. The total damage from this storm was 80 million dollars.

1987 - Thunderstorms in the Southern Plains Region caused flooding in parts of south central Texas. Del Rio TX was soaked with two inches of rain in two hours prior to sunrise. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Cold and snow invaded the southern U.S. Roswell NM was buried under 16.5 inches of snow in 24 hours, an all-time record for that location. Parts of the Central Gulf Coast Region reported their first significant snow in fifteen years. Strong winds in Minnesota and the Dakotas produced wind chill readings as cold as 75 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Severe cold gripped much of the nation. Thirty cities reported new record low temperatures for the date. Morning lows of 9 above at Astoria OR and 27 below zero at Ely NV were records for February. In Alaska, Point Barrow warmed to 24 degrees above zero, and Nome reached 30 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - For the second time in two days, and the third time in a week, high winds plagued the northwestern U.S. Winds in Oregon gusted to 60 mph at Cape Disappointment, and wind gusts in Washington State reached 67 mph at Bellingham. The first in a series of cold fronts began to produce heavy snow in the mountains of Washington and Oregon. Ten inches of snow fell at Timberline OR. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2006 - Mount Washington Observatory in New Hampshire reaches a high of 41°F, the warmest February 5th on record at the summit and two degrees off the monthly mark, where records have been kept since 1932. The Weather Doctor

2008 - The deadliest round of tornadoes in nearly a quarter century kill 58 people in the south. The storms kill 32 people in Tennessee, 14 in Arkansas, seven in Kentucky and five in Alabama. Damage is likely to be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. The Weather Doctor

2008 - The Super Tuesday 2008 Tornado Outbreak has been one of the deadliest tornado outbreaks in the US, with 59 fatalities reported. So far, it ranks in the top 15 deadly tornado outbreaks (and the highest number of tornado deaths since 1985). According to the SPC Storm Reports, there were over 300 reports of tornadoes, large hail (up to 4.25 inches in diameter in Texas, Arkansas, and Missouri), and damaging wind gusts from Texas to Ohio and West Virginia. The outbreak produced at least 64 tornadoes, some producing EF-3 and EF-4 damage.

2010 - A mega-snowstorm, which President Obama dubbed Snowmageddon, buried the Washington D.C. area with more than 30 inches of snow in some areas. At American University in Washington the official snowfall was 27.5 inches. Snowfall totals in the Washington DC area range from a low of 17.9 inches at Ronald Reagan National Airport to 40 inches in the northern suburb of Colesville, MD. Dulles Airport reported 32.4 inches, which established a new two-day snowfall record. The Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD, measured 24.8 inches from the storm breaking the record for the largest two day snowfall there. It is one of the worst blizzards in the city's history.

This storm will forever live in infamy up here, but I don't get why they call it one of their *worst* blizzards in DC instead of one of their *BEST* blizzards in history.

2010 - A mega-snowstorm, which President Obama dubbed Snowmageddon, buried the Washington D.C. area with more than 30 inches of snow in some areas. At American University in Washington the official snowfall was 27.5 inches. Snowfall totals in the Washington DC area range from a low of 17.9 inches at Ronald Reagan National Airport to 40 inches in the northern suburb of Colesville, MD. Dulles Airport reported 32.4 inches, which established a new two-day snowfall record. The Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD, measured 24.8 inches from the storm breaking the record for the largest two day snowfall there. It is one of the worst blizzards in the city's history.

 

also, Tony you missed the record high for LGA from 1991 (which became one of our hottest summers to be tied two years later in 1993 for number of 90+ degree days).

EWR: 69 (1991)
NYC: 70 (1991)
LGA: (1991)
JFK: 66 (1991)


Lows:

EWR: 3 (1996)
NYC: -6 (1918)
LGA: 6 (1995)
JFK: 7 (1996)

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:
 

EWR: 69 (1991)
NYC: 70 (1991)
LGA: (1991)
JFK: 66 (1991)


Lows:

EWR: 3 (1996)
NYC: -6 (1918)
LGA: 6 (1995)
JFK: 7 (1996)

HIstorical:

1745: Today is National Weatherman/Meteorologist day, commemorating the birth of John Jeffries in 1745. Jeffries, one of America's first weather observers, began taking daily weather observations in Boston, MA, in 1774, and he made the first balloon observation in 1784. You can read a narrative from the Library of Congress of the two aerial voyages of Doctor Jeffries with Mons. Blanchard: with meteorological observations and remarks.  The first voyage was on November 13th, 1784, from London into Kent. The second was on January 7th, 1785, from England into France. 

1887 - San Francisco experienced its greatest snowstorm of record. Nearly four inches was reported in downtown San Francisco, and the western hills of the city received seven inches. Excited crowds went on a snowball throwing rampage. (David Ludlum)

 

1920: An intense nor'easter dumped 17.5 inches of snow over three days in New York City Central Park, New York. Boston, MA, saw 12.2 inches of snow on this day. 

 

1976: Record-breaking snowfall of just two inches fell in Sacramento, California. February 5, 1976, is the only time since November 1941 when snow was reported in Sacramento.

 

1986: A supercell thunderstorm tracked through the Tomball area northwest of Houston, TX, and produced four tornadoes along with damaging microburst winds and up to tennis ball size hail. An F3 tornado killed two people, injured 80 others, and devastated a mobile home park and the David Wayne Hooks Airport. In addition, 300 aircraft were either damaged or destroyed. Much of the more substantial hail was propelled by 60 to 80 mph winds, resulting in widespread moderate damage. The total damage from this storm was 80 million dollars.

1987 - Thunderstorms in the Southern Plains Region caused flooding in parts of south central Texas. Del Rio TX was soaked with two inches of rain in two hours prior to sunrise. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Cold and snow invaded the southern U.S. Roswell NM was buried under 16.5 inches of snow in 24 hours, an all-time record for that location. Parts of the Central Gulf Coast Region reported their first significant snow in fifteen years. Strong winds in Minnesota and the Dakotas produced wind chill readings as cold as 75 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Severe cold gripped much of the nation. Thirty cities reported new record low temperatures for the date. Morning lows of 9 above at Astoria OR and 27 below zero at Ely NV were records for February. In Alaska, Point Barrow warmed to 24 degrees above zero, and Nome reached 30 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - For the second time in two days, and the third time in a week, high winds plagued the northwestern U.S. Winds in Oregon gusted to 60 mph at Cape Disappointment, and wind gusts in Washington State reached 67 mph at Bellingham. The first in a series of cold fronts began to produce heavy snow in the mountains of Washington and Oregon. Ten inches of snow fell at Timberline OR. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2006 - Mount Washington Observatory in New Hampshire reaches a high of 41°F, the warmest February 5th on record at the summit and two degrees off the monthly mark, where records have been kept since 1932. The Weather Doctor

2008 - The deadliest round of tornadoes in nearly a quarter century kill 58 people in the south. The storms kill 32 people in Tennessee, 14 in Arkansas, seven in Kentucky and five in Alabama. Damage is likely to be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. The Weather Doctor

2008 - The Super Tuesday 2008 Tornado Outbreak has been one of the deadliest tornado outbreaks in the US, with 59 fatalities reported. So far, it ranks in the top 15 deadly tornado outbreaks (and the highest number of tornado deaths since 1985). According to the SPC Storm Reports, there were over 300 reports of tornadoes, large hail (up to 4.25 inches in diameter in Texas, Arkansas, and Missouri), and damaging wind gusts from Texas to Ohio and West Virginia. The outbreak produced at least 64 tornadoes, some producing EF-3 and EF-4 damage.

2010 - A mega-snowstorm, which President Obama dubbed Snowmageddon, buried the Washington D.C. area with more than 30 inches of snow in some areas. At American University in Washington the official snowfall was 27.5 inches. Snowfall totals in the Washington DC area range from a low of 17.9 inches at Ronald Reagan National Airport to 40 inches in the northern suburb of Colesville, MD. Dulles Airport reported 32.4 inches, which established a new two-day snowfall record. The Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD, measured 24.8 inches from the storm breaking the record for the largest two day snowfall there. It is one of the worst blizzards in the city's history.

1920: An intense nor'easter dumped 17.5 inches of snow over three days in New York City Central Park, New York. Boston, MA, saw 12.2 inches of snow on this day. 

 

Tony is this the infamous 18 inch sleet storm that gave us 5 inches of LE over 3 days? Why don't we get these kinds of multiday events anymore?

 

 

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

This is just insane 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said:

This is just insane 

Drought buster.

[Allsnow]

29 and cloudy currently 

 

We have went from dry/cold to cold for 24hours just before precipitation 

[Allsnow]

 

[SACRUS]

24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This storm wil

EWR: 69 (1991)
NYC: 70 (1991)
LGA:70  (1991)
JFK: 66 (1991)


Lows:

EWR: 3 (1996)
NYC: -6 (1918)
LGA: 6 (1995)
JFK: 7 (1996)

 

70 in LGA - 1991

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

Did you see his next post where he said that Boston could get 54 inches of snow next week?

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Did you see his next post where he said that Boston could get 54 inches of snow next week?

Like I said when it’s within 72 hours I’ll get excited. The pattern upcoming has potential but we’ve seen plenty of examples of it falling apart. The ensemble agreement is encouraging. 

[eduggs]