eduggs Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 The prolonged moist SW flow on the CMC is a thing of beauty. A stronger shortwave trof would raise heights along the coast and bring warmth (and a stronger SLP). Weak waves with a shallow trof angle is perfect here. Simple overrunning with waves Gulf moisture is sufficient for big snow. The finale at the end of the CMC is too far out to mean much, but man I'm really liking that run. GFS and ICON are different as expected for days 5-9... but they're not completely at odds either. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I expect the 0z GEFS to look snowy out to 10 days judging from the early panels. It's 2+ waves spaced out from Tue to Fri (plus a little bit Wed night and Sat night). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 5 minutes ago, eduggs said: I expect the 0z GEFS to look snowy out to 10 days judging from the early panels. It's 2+ waves spaced out from Tue to Fri (plus a little bit Wed night and Sat night). Pretty snowy, step back from earlier but still snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 6 minutes ago, eduggs said: I expect the 0z GEFS to look snowy out to 10 days judging from the early panels. It's 2+ waves spaced out from Tue to Fri (plus a little bit Wed night and Sat night). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Euro crushes us 11th-12th 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Euro crushes us 11th-12th Yea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, Franklin0529 said: Yea? Probably some mixing south but 12+ for most 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Euro crushes us 11th-12th Just seen it lol. That's what dreams are made of. Snows for like 24 hrs with 20" near the metro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 0Z Euro is now showing snow amounts in the NYC metro similar to what the GFS was coming up with 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 As many have said, great signal for a snowstorm on Tues/Weds. The three major ensemble means just look so pretty side-by-side, as it's not that often one sees such consistently snowy output across all 3 models 7+ days out, especially given that the ensembles usually have a bunch of member runs with little to no snow that drag the mean down a lot, but not here. Is there a betting market for snowstorms? I also like The WPC 7-day outlook already having most of our area in the 50-75% probability of at least 2.5" of snow, which is almost unheard of this far out - as well as the comment from WPC's Cody Snell in the Twitter thread below, saying the last time he could recall a situation like this was Jan-2016... https://x.com/cody__snell/status/1887014767581389293 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 6 hours ago, eduggs said: I really like the 0z CMC evolution for next week. Not saying it's right - just that it shows how we could get big snow numbers. Ride the boundary from Tuesday all the way through Friday. We're almost perfectly on the edge of the steady moisture plume and just enough cold air the whole period. No intense SLP, but it's not needed. The run didn't show the huge snow numbers, but QPF could easy be underdone with that depiction. No thread but am thinking keeping threads simple and just going for one thread Feb 10-15. I'll wait til Thursday afternoon before starting as guided yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 WPC D7. attached and the early WSSI-P which has low probability of a major winter storm I95 corridor...first time I've ever seen in this short time this experimental product is publicly available this season. If subforum, sentiment changes this afternoon, I can start the thread for 2/10-15 and leave it wide open for what may transpire. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 6z gfs and gefs looks amazing 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 This is a tease... and might be an inch or more too high but the last 5 cycles of the 00z/GEFS has offer 4+" of melted w.e. to I80 southward (yellow) in the next 23 days... impressive if this occurs. This data extends beyond what I've shown here... it trickles in between 02z-03z the next day. Example: the 00z/4 GEFS extended beyond 16 days wasn't available to me until about 03z/5. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 39 minutes ago, wdrag said: This is a tease... and might be an inch or more too high but the last 5 cycles of the 00z/GEFS has offer 4+" of melted w.e. to I80 southward (yellow) in the next 23 days... impressive if this occurs. This data extends beyond what I've shown here... it trickles in between 02z-03z the next day. Example: the 00z/4 GEFS extended beyond 16 days wasn't available to me until about 03z/5. We keep going from really wet to really dry, is this the flip back to wet and how long might this wet period last? Will it be as extreme as the dry period has been since 9/24? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 12 minutes ago, gravitylover said: We keep going from really wet to really dry, is this the flip back to wet and how long might this wet period last? Will it be as extreme as the dry period has been since 9/24? Classic case of hydroclimate volatility which makes accurate long range precipitation forecasting very challenging in the new climate. https://weatherwest.com/archives/43181 Hydroclimate volatility broadly refers to unusually rapid and/or high magnitude swings between unusually wet and dry conditions (or vice versa) relative to what is typical for a given location and season. Such rapid transitions can often generate hazards that are distinct from their constituent wet and dry extremes (e.g., floods and droughts), meaning that hydroclimate volatility can yield overall societal and ecological risks that are “greater than the sum of their parts.” 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, gravitylover said: We keep going from really wet to really dry, is this the flip back to wet and how long might this wet period last? Will it be as extreme as the dry period has been since 9/24? Never really sure...we'll see if this really happens.Maybe we'll have a spring flood season if we can get a deep snowpack in the interior... by March 1. Dont' know but guidance offers the option. Pattern via 00z/4 GEFS only, looks favorable into the first week or two f March, even if we lose the ne Canada block since the 5H ridge will probably pop again in AK and modeling still has an active storm track lower Mississippi Valley through the Ohio Valley into the mid Atlantic states (Nina). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: Classic case of hydroclimate volatility which makes accurate long range precipitation forecasting very challenging in the new climate. https://weatherwest.com/archives/43181 Hydroclimate volatility broadly refers to unusually rapid and/or high magnitude swings between unusually wet and dry conditions (or vice versa) relative to what is typical for a given location and season. Such rapid transitions can often generate hazards that are distinct from their constituent wet and dry extremes (e.g., floods and droughts), meaning that hydroclimate volatility can yield overall societal and ecological risks that are “greater than the sum of their parts.” I like this a lot...my experience too. Wonder if folks ar underpaying impacts coming tomorrow morning. Going to be pretty intense I think between 4A-10A. new 06z/5 EC demonstrates with S+ pockets (red on Pivatol). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 February 11-12 will be the make of break moment for the entire winter so far around NYC Metro. That 0z OP Euro was similar to the multi day KU event at the same time around 2-11-94 with that gradient. So getting the gradient to settle just in the right spot will key here to getting a more memorable storm around NYC. It’s why we need these big KU events for normal to above normal seasonal snowfall. But we really have to take the next few storms first to see what the actual track will be. Since the exact wave spacing and gradient location left in the wake of the previous storms will determine whether we can get something really special or not. Just 30 miles can mean everything for a spot like NYC. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Looking further out as the block decays we could have additional snowfall as this look is not overly suppressive (a bit of a WAR). Yes with the EPO as presented the temperatures will not be that cold, however plenty cold enough for late February (this has a look of average temps). Again average temps with precipitation due to the war is a good look for late February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 7 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Probably some mixing south but 12+ for most Mixing only for Belmar and points south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 The wave has finally amplified per below. We remain on track for phase 8 for late February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: February 11-12 will be the make of break moment for the entire winter so far around NYC Metro. That 0z OP Euro was similar to the multi day KU event at the same time around 2-11-94 with that gradient. So getting the gradient to settle just in the right spot will key here to getting a more memorable storm around NYC. It’s why we need these big KU events for normal to above normal seasonal snowfall. But we really have to take the next few storms first to see what the actual track will be. Since the exact wave spacing and gradient location left in the wake of the previous storms will determine whether we can get something really special or not. Just 30 miles can mean everything for a spot like NYC. Chris, do you think if we get enough snow in these first couple of events that will make the track for that one sink farther south? 2/11-13 is the peak of snowfall climo around here, many famous snowstorms occurred in this time period! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 44 minutes ago, gravitylover said: We keep going from really wet to really dry, is this the flip back to wet and how long might this wet period last? Will it be as extreme as the dry period has been since 9/24? we'll go back to very dry in time for Spring and Summer. The last two Springs have been dry so count on it getting dry April and beyond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 36 minutes ago, bluewave said: Classic case of hydroclimate volatility which makes accurate long range precipitation forecasting very challenging in the new climate. https://weatherwest.com/archives/43181 Hydroclimate volatility broadly refers to unusually rapid and/or high magnitude swings between unusually wet and dry conditions (or vice versa) relative to what is typical for a given location and season. Such rapid transitions can often generate hazards that are distinct from their constituent wet and dry extremes (e.g., floods and droughts), meaning that hydroclimate volatility can yield overall societal and ecological risks that are “greater than the sum of their parts.” it also makes the weather a lot more fun and exciting to have record dry periods and record wet periods-- instead of just record wet periods like we've had for the last two decades. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/3/2025 at 5:00 PM, bluewave said: Thanks. Moved in near the end of the summer back in 2023. Enjoying the much better radiational cooling than I had back on the LI South Shore. Not too far from the Sound so still get great sea breezes in the warm season. You will do much better of course with SWFEs and pure Miller A's. What you'll do worse on our low pressures due south where there tends to be a dry slot in Central and Eastern Connecticut. Long Island never seems to get into the dry slot possibly due to the Long Island sound. In March of 2018 we're supposed to get one to two feet and ended up with one to three inches due to cold dry air draining down the Connecticut River valley. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 8 hours ago, eduggs said: I really like the 0z CMC evolution for next week. Not saying it's right - just that it shows how we could get big snow numbers. Ride the boundary from Tuesday all the way through Friday. We're almost perfectly on the edge of the steady moisture plume and just enough cold air the whole period. No intense SLP, but it's not needed. The run didn't show the huge snow numbers, but QPF could easy be underdone with that depiction. Many historic storms have occurred in a set up just like this February 1983 January 1996 PD2 February 2003 January 2016 all our greatest hits.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 10 hours ago, SACRUS said: NYC Feb 4, 1961: 2 day storm total of 17.4 inches of snowfall. Feb 4, 1995: 10.9 inches of snowfall from the seasons largest snowstorm (nor'eatser) Thanks for reminding me Tony, February 1961 was another HECS in a pattern very similar to this and it was JFK's biggest snowstorm (24.1 inches) prior to PD2 2003. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: The wave has finally amplified per below. We remain on track for phase 8 for late February. Showing the gefs which is now starting to reflect the mjo passage in the longer range. Key differences to the eps from a negative perspective is the presence of an actual Southeast ridge, however, where are the EPS loses the negative EPO, the gefs keeps a semblance of it therefore there would be colder air nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 10 hours ago, SACRUS said: 49 today. Probably 10-13 degrees colder tomorrow. Tony, is this the winter with one of the fewest number of 50 degree highs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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