February 2025

[eduggs]

The prolonged moist SW flow on the CMC is a thing of beauty. A stronger shortwave trof would raise heights along the coast and bring warmth (and a stronger SLP). Weak waves with a shallow trof angle is perfect here. Simple overrunning with waves Gulf moisture is sufficient for big snow. The finale at the end of the CMC is too far out to mean much, but man I'm really liking that run. GFS and ICON are different as expected for days 5-9... but they're not completely at odds either.

[eduggs]

I expect the 0z GEFS to look snowy out to 10 days judging from the early panels. It's 2+ waves spaced out from Tue to Fri (plus a little bit Wed night and Sat night).

[Franklin0529]

5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I expect the 0z GEFS to look snowy out to 10 days judging from the early panels. It's 2+ waves spaced out from Tue to Fri (plus a little bit Wed night and Sat night).

Pretty snowy, step back from earlier but still snowy 

[Franklin0529]

6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I expect the 0z GEFS to look snowy out to 10 days judging from the early panels. It's 2+ waves spaced out from Tue to Fri (plus a little bit Wed night and Sat night).

 

[Stormlover74]

Euro crushes us 11th-12th

[Franklin0529]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro crushes us 11th-12th

Yea? 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Franklin0529 said:

Yea? 

Probably some mixing south but 12+ for most

[Franklin0529]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro crushes us 11th-12th

Just seen it lol. That's what dreams are made of. Snows for like 24 hrs with 20" near the metro 

[NEG NAO]

0Z Euro is now showing snow amounts in the NYC metro similar to what the GFS was coming up with

[RU848789]

As many have said, great signal for a snowstorm on Tues/Weds. The three major ensemble means just look so pretty side-by-side, as it's not that often one sees such consistently snowy output across all 3 models 7+ days out, especially given that the ensembles usually have a bunch of member runs with little to no snow that drag the mean down a lot, but not here. Is there a betting market for snowstorms? 

I also like The WPC 7-day outlook already having most of our area in the 50-75% probability of at least 2.5" of snow, which is almost unheard of this far out - as well as the comment from WPC's Cody Snell in the Twitter thread below, saying the last time he could recall a situation like this was Jan-2016...

https://x.com/cody__snell/status/1887014767581389293