February 2025

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

We are but people seem to think that applies only to below the M/D line

What's in a name?

I am 65 miles ENE of Plainfield and 20 miles due south of Bridgeport.  Am I in no-mans land?

[donsutherland1]

Another brief cold shot is likely tomorrow before temperatures moderate yet again. No exceptional warmth or cold is likely through at least February 10th.

A period of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is likely tomorrow night and Thursday. Currently, this appears to be the kind of event that could bring a coating to 1" of snow and sleet to New York City and nearby suburbs and 1"-3" in its distant northern and western suburbs before the precipitation changes over to freezing rain (mainly outside the City) and rain. Northwest New Jersey into adjacent southeast New York could experience an extended period of freezing rain.

There remains uncertainty about the second half of the month. Precipitation will likely be near or somewhat above normal.

The AO is now positive and is expected to remain predominantly positive through the first week of February before falling sharply. Since 1950, just 2 of 19 (11%) of storms with an AO of +2.000 or above during January 15-February 15 saw 6" or more of snow in New York City. In addition, the NAO is likely to remain at +1.000 or above through the first 10-14 days of February. Since 1950, just 1 of 18 (6%) of storms with an NAO of +0.900 or above saw 6" or more snow in New York City. That storm occurred with an AO of -1.769.  As a result, prospects for a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City area will likely be limited through at least the first 10 days of February. The low probability of a 6" or above snowstorm does not mean that there cannot be snowfall or that there won't be snowfall. Smaller events are possible, as occurred on February 2.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.13°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was +18.35 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.701 today.

 

[MJO812]

Gfs further northwest for next week

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

Gefs looks more promising 

[Franklin0529]

Gefs looks really good 

[Franklin0529]