NorthShoreWx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: We are but people seem to think that applies only to below the M/D line What's in a name? I am 65 miles ENE of Plainfield and 20 miles due south of Bridgeport. Am I in no-mans land? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Another brief cold shot is likely tomorrow before temperatures moderate yet again. No exceptional warmth or cold is likely through at least February 10th. A period of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is likely tomorrow night and Thursday. Currently, this appears to be the kind of event that could bring a coating to 1" of snow and sleet to New York City and nearby suburbs and 1"-3" in its distant northern and western suburbs before the precipitation changes over to freezing rain (mainly outside the City) and rain. Northwest New Jersey into adjacent southeast New York could experience an extended period of freezing rain. There remains uncertainty about the second half of the month. Precipitation will likely be near or somewhat above normal. The AO is now positive and is expected to remain predominantly positive through the first week of February before falling sharply. Since 1950, just 2 of 19 (11%) of storms with an AO of +2.000 or above during January 15-February 15 saw 6" or more of snow in New York City. In addition, the NAO is likely to remain at +1.000 or above through the first 10-14 days of February. Since 1950, just 1 of 18 (6%) of storms with an NAO of +0.900 or above saw 6" or more snow in New York City. That storm occurred with an AO of -1.769. As a result, prospects for a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City area will likely be limited through at least the first 10 days of February. The low probability of a 6" or above snowstorm does not mean that there cannot be snowfall or that there won't be snowfall. Smaller events are possible, as occurred on February 2. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.13°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring. The SOI was +18.35 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.701 today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Gfs further northwest for next week 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Gefs looks more promising 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Gefs looks really good 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 No thread yet but CPC maintains...see below. If and when a thread from myself, will follow morning group input and start 4PM ish Thursday the 6th. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Couldn't you say the same any time during winter? Slight risk of snow....sort of like a slight risk of thunderstorms in summer.....and heck, having in laws in ME, I'd say the risk of heavy snow there is always more than slight.....until around the end of April lol This doesn't often happen in the the I95 corridor... so I think it is a good indicator we have a winter snow or winter mixed storm coming. CPC tends to be conservative. I noticed when they had it for the western part of the I84 corridor earlier this winter there was a winter storm. And, to my knowledge this is the only avenue the NWS-CPC has for broadcasting a possible extensive and/or large event for week two This is not your frequent slight risk of severe in summer where we still have some difficulty discerning extensive coverage vs isolated and also the power of the storms. This I think of more akin to a MDT summer risk, though I never was asked about this before. Hope that helps regarding my perspective=value and public benefit. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 5 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: That’s just nuts. I’d sign up for half of that. Then again maybe not! Quote 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Obviously stormvistas weenie snow maps are still glitched. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, Yanksfan said: That’s just nuts. I’d sign up for half of that. Then again maybe not! The StormVistaWx maps have a glitch in the algorithm that tabulates snow. It's showing values about twice the actual data. This has been a problem forever. Why are they still being used/shown? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 46 today. Another nice day. Can feel the sun getting warmer now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 49 today. Probably 10-13 degrees colder tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Records: Highs: EWR: 69 (1991) NYC: 68 (1991) LGA: 68 (1991) JFK: 68 (1991) Lows: EWR: 5 (2023) NYC: 0 (1918) LGA: 5 (2023) JFK: 4 (2023) Historical: 1842: A dreadful tornado passed over Mayfield, Kirkland, and other Cuyahoga and Lake Counties in Ohio. According to the Cleveland Herald, no less than 30 houses, barns, and buildings were entirely demolished or very much shattered. A "report from Kirtland says that one man and one child are dead." 1924: In Milwaukee, Wisconsin, 20.3 inches of snow fell in 24 hours. This ranks as the most snowfall in 24 hours since 1884. This storm caused over $1 million in damage. Streetcar and train service crippled. Snowdrifts of 8 to 10 feet high were common, along with much ice on trees and wires. Schools were closed, and several plate glass windows were broken. 1961 - The third great snowstorm of the winter season struck the northeastern U.S. Cortland NY received 40 inches of snow. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Gales lashed the northern Pacific coast and the coast of northern New England. A storm in the central U.S. produced five inches of snow at Rapid City SD. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - A winter storm produced heavy snow from the Upper Ohio Valley to New England, with up to 12 inches reported in Vermont and New Hampshire. Strong northerly winds in the Upper Midwest produced wind chill readings as cold as 60 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Two dozen cities in the south central and northwestern U.S. reported new record low temperatures for the date. The low of 14 below zero at Boise ID was a February record. A winter storm continued in the southwestern U.S. Alta UT reported 49 inches of snow in four days, Wolf Creek CO reported 66 inches in six days, including 28 inches in 24 hours, and up to 84 inches buried the ski resorts of northern New Mexico in three days. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - A winter storm produced heavy snow in the northeastern U.S. Snowfall totals in Maine ranged up to 13 inches at Gorham, with 11 inches reported at Portland. Totals in New Hampshire ranged up to 14 inches at Franconia, with 13 inches reported at Portsmouth. A mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain caused numerous traffic accidents in eastern New York State resulting in three deaths and fourteen injuries. Subzero cold also gripped parts of the northeastern U.S. Caribou ME and Houlton ME reported morning lows of 15 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1995: A massive nor'easter pounded areas from the southern Mid-Atlantic to northern New England. It would be the only significant storm in the 94-95 winter season. Over 20 inches of snow buried parts of upstate New York. Wind chills dropped as cold as 40 degrees below zero. Behind the storm, arctic air crossing the relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes produced intense lake effect squalls for nearly two weeks from the 4th through the 14th. Snowfall totals for the storm ranged from near two to seven feet. During the storm east of Lake Ontario, snow was falling at the incredible rate of five inches an hour! The heavy snow combined with strong winds produced whiteouts and hazardous driving. Actual storm totals downwind of Lake Erie included: Erie County: West Seneca 39 inches, Orchard Park 36 inches, Cheektowaga 36 inches, Colden 32 inches, and Buffalo Airport 31 inches; Genesee County: Corfu 38 inches; Chautauqua County: Sinclairville 27 inches and Jamestown 15 inches. Downwind of Lake Ontario, storm totals included: Oswego County: Palermo 85 inches, Fulton 60 inches, and Oswego 46 inches; Lewis County: Montague 66 inches, Highmarket 48 inches, and Lowville 36 inches; Cayuga County: Fairhaven 36 inches, Wayne County: Wolcott 22 inches; and Jefferson County: Adams 47 inches. 2004 - 7.15 inches of rain deluges Pinson, AL, setting an all-time record rainfall over 24 hours for the town. The Weather Doctor 2007 - Kahului reports a minimum temperature of 54°F, a daily low temperature record for the date. The Weather Doctor 2011 - A winter storm settled four to six inches of snow over northern Texas, including Dallas, just days before the Super Bowl between the Pittsburg Steelers and the Green Bay Packers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 12 minutes ago, psv88 said: 46 today. Another nice day. Can feel the sun getting warmer now Can definitely feel it. Higher sun angle, and the birds are getting a little more chatty. Maybe another couple-three weeks of wintery weather would be nice, then some spring on the other side, and with that, hopefully some spring rains. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 NYC Feb 4, 1961: 2 day storm total of 17.4 inches of snowfall. Feb 4, 1995: 10.9 inches of snowfall from the seasons largest snowstorm (nor'eatser) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Icon and total snowfall for the whole run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 GFS is South for next Tuesday. Virginia gets like 20" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, Franklin0529 said: GFS is South for next Tuesday. Virginia gets like 20" Good. Let it stay there on the gfs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Good. Let it stay there on the gfs. I mean I guess, storms haven't been trending north this year. It'll change a 100 more times i know 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Good. Let it stay there on the gfs. One storm at a time. Next week will change a lot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Two keys to this setup: 1. We need the energy to be vigorous and consolidated. The 0z GFS, as we just saw, has a few weak pieces of energy running around instead of one big, strong one. The Canadian also does this to a lesser extent. If the energy doesn’t consolidate this either misses to the south or gives us a weak light snow event or two. 2. The high to the north needs to keep pressing down. Let’s say we have our strong shortwave to the southwest, but the high trends much weaker. This causes the storm to be another front end snow to ice/rain event. Not only does a strong high to the north keep temperatures cold, but it enhances the thermal gradient which increases lift and makes the snow heavier, despite a sfc low that’s not as strong. This is why PDII was such a big storm with a low that never really bombed out like most KU storms. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Cmc has 2 snow events next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 hours ago, wdrag said: This doesn't often happen in the the I95 corridor... so I think it is a good indicator we have a winter snow or winter mixed storm coming. CPC tends to be conservative. I noticed when they had it for the western part of the I84 corridor earlier this winter there was a winter storm. And, to my knowledge this is the only avenue the NWS-CPC has for broadcasting a possible extensive and/or large event for week two This is not your frequent slight risk of severe in summer where we still have some difficulty discerning extensive coverage vs isolated and also the power of the storms. This I think of more akin to a MDT summer risk, though I never was asked about this before. Hope that helps regarding my perspective=value and public benefit. it does indeed. many thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I really like the 0z CMC evolution for next week. Not saying it's right - just that it shows how we could get big snow numbers. Ride the boundary from Tuesday all the way through Friday. We're almost perfectly on the edge of the steady moisture plume and just enough cold air the whole period. No intense SLP, but it's not needed. The run didn't show the huge snow numbers, but QPF could easy be underdone with that depiction. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc has 2 snow events next week Ukie's a total miss. At least through Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Gefs much better than op for next week 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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