February 2025

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

We don't know what's coming, particularly beyond day 10. Models could be far off with the longwave "pattern" and evolution they are advertising. The EC has one distinct snow threat out at the end of the mid-range. It also has a few minor snow threats before then. GFS and ensembles are similar but with timing differences. Depending on how shortwaves eject from the southwest US and interact with the longwave jet structure, there could be more than one "wave" of precipitation next week.

I'm assuming next week will be our best shot of a big snowstorm this winter. I obviously don't know that for sure, but we can't count of anything past 10 days. Getting a good hit inside 7 days on multiple ensemble means is worth a lot more than mega blocking and fantasy storms 2+ weeks from now.

Next week will make or break the winter imo 

 

The epo is going to pinch off which will probably allow a cutter president day weekend 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

well according to many, we're part of the midatlantic.

We are but people seem to think that applies only to below the M/D line

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Next week will make or break the winter imo 

 

The epo is going to pinch off which will probably allow a cutter president day weekend 

pattern reload after that?

 

[NEG NAO]

8 minutes ago, eduggs said:

We don't know what's coming, particularly beyond day 10. Models could be far off with the longwave "pattern" and evolution they are advertising. The EC has one distinct snow threat out at the end of the mid-range. It also has a few minor snow threats before then. GFS and ensembles are similar but with timing differences. Depending on how shortwaves eject from the southwest US and interact with the longwave jet structure, there could be more than one "wave" of precipitation next week.

I'm assuming next week will be our best shot of a big snowstorm this winter. I obviously don't know that for sure, but we can't count of anything past 10 days. Getting a good hit inside 7 days on multiple ensemble means is worth a lot more than mega blocking and fantasy storms 2+ weeks from now.

we don't know exactly what is coming past day 2 because every one of these potential events are borderline for various reasons........

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

pattern reload after that?

 

The Op runs definitely have more SE ridging than the ensemble average which tells me there probably are alot of ensemble members D12-16 that are not nearly as troffy or suppressed in the east as the GEFS/EPS average is

[eduggs]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it's seemed like a very long winter regardless of how much snow fell or not.  We do define our winters by temperatures and not the amount of snow that falls.

 

It's funny how relative perception can be. I was away for the 3 days of cold and moderate snowstorm in January and my feeling about winter is that I keep waiting for autumn to end and winter to start. My missing the core of winter clearly colors my perception.

I'm looking out my window at bare ground. The direct sun feels warm. Anytime the sun comes out the daily high temperature seems to reach at least 40. Some lakes and rivers are only partly frozen. I know statistically it's been a slightly colder than (recent) average winter, but from my little bubble it just hasn't felt like a real winter.

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Next week will make or break the winter imo 

 

The epo is going to pinch off which will probably allow a cutter president day weekend 

I agree. The risk with gradients is that we get mixed precipitation events when the systems really amped like the next few. Then if a system is too weak the confluence to the north can be too strong leading to suppression. What we want next week is a goldilocks scenario right in the middle. 

[EastonSN+]

10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Op runs definitely have more SE ridging than the ensemble average which tells me there probably are alot of ensemble members D12-16 that are not nearly as troffy or suppressed in the east as the GEFS/EPS average is

I see what you're saying as the operationals are ensemble member in and of themselves. 

That being said isn't the normal progression of blocking from the nao region Westward to the AO region and finally to the EPO region?

It seems that the Middle Atlantic form is pretty certain that the EPO will only be positive for a short time before returning negative which would align with the migration of The blocking.

[SnoSki14]

SE ridge linking with blocking on Euro...same ole song and dance. 

My 2-4" by the 20th is looking great

Actually think there's a good window late Feb into 1st week of March. Blocking gets situated and less western troughiness 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

SE ridge linking with blocking on Euro...same ole song and dance. 

My 2-4" by the 20th is looking great

What

[EastonSN+]

[Allsnow]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I agree. The risk with gradients is that we get mixed precipitation events when the systems really amped like the next few. Then if a system is too weak the confluence to the north can be too strong leading to suppression. What we want next week is a goldilocks scenario right in the middle. 

Thankfully, the ens continue to look snowy for early next week. 

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

SE ridge linking with blocking on Euro...same ole song and dance. 

My 2-4" by the 20th is looking great

Actually think there's a good window late Feb into 1st week of March. Blocking gets situated and less western troughiness 

Cool 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

well according to many, we're part of the midatlantic.

Those people should look at a map.

If you use geography as the guideline nothing in New York state would be considered Mid Atlantic. Maybe extreme southern Jersey and Southern most Pennsylavania you could make the argument.

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

SE ridge linking with blocking on Euro...same ole song and dance. 

My 2-4" by the 20th is looking great

Actually think there's a good window late Feb into 1st week of March. Blocking gets situated and less western troughiness 

congrats you managed to upset both snowman and mjo in the same post-- now that's what I call talent!

 

[LibertyBell]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I agree. The risk with gradients is that we get mixed precipitation events when the systems really amped like the next few. Then if a system is too weak the confluence to the north can be too strong leading to suppression. What we want next week is a goldilocks scenario right in the middle. 

but doesn't every storm have a gradient?

 

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, eduggs said:

It's funny how relative perception can be. I was away for the 3 days of cold and moderate snowstorm in January and my feeling about winter is that I keep waiting for autumn to end and winter to start. My missing the core of winter clearly colors my perception.

I'm looking out my window at bare ground. The direct sun feels warm. Anytime the sun comes out the daily high temperature seems to reach at least 40. Some lakes and rivers are only partly frozen. I know statistically it's been a slightly colder than (recent) average winter, but from my little bubble it just hasn't felt like a real winter.

it's also because of that darned wind, it feels much colder than it really has been.

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it's also because of that darned wind, it feels much colder than it really has been.

The 1.5" we got over a few hours Sunday night felt like a big deal. That's how far the bar's fallen in recent years.

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Those people should look at a map.

If you use geography as the guideline nothing in New York state would be considered Mid Atlantic. Maybe extreme southern Jersey and Southern most Pennsylavania you could make the argument.

Our climo (around NYC/western LI) is a transition between Mid-Atlantic/DC like and SNE like. So we can benefit from both types of winter storms that hit each or get missed/porked by both. The Hudson Valley is a transition between western New England and E PA. The eastern half of LI I’d say is more New England, specifically RI and SE Mass. 

[EastonSN+]

I will be honest, I'm not sure I understand why the look going past President's Day is not a better than average look for snowfall. 

The blocking remains, therefore pure cutters should be limited. 

Is the problem that the block is too far north? 

If anything it seems we are following the same pattern as the last passage through eight one and two, where we had a large snow storm at the start of The blocking period which favored the Mid-Atlantic, which the GFS is currently showing, followed by a wave providing a light to moderate snowfall with a GFS is showing, followed by a trough in the east which the ensembles are showing. 

Therefore I would believe past President's Day, obviously not forever but for a week or two, should be at the very least colder than average with the main risk being suppression just like the last passage through eight one and two. 

 

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

but doesn't every storm have a gradient?

 

This is the first time we had a gradient pattern in the 2020s with the SE Ridge battling blocking over the top.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Gefs at 318hrs for the worriers in the group.

 

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, moves towards the typical KU pattern at that point

 

[Allsnow]

10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I will be honest, I'm not sure I understand why the look going past President's Day is not a better than average look for snowfall. 

The blocking remains, therefore pure cutters should be limited. 

Is the problem that the block is too far north? 

If anything it seems we are following the same pattern as the last passage through eight one and two, where we had a large snow storm at the start of The blocking period which favored the Mid-Atlantic, which the GFS is currently showing, followed by a wave providing a light to moderate snowfall with a GFS is showing, followed by a trough in the east which the ensembles are showing. 

Therefore I would believe past President's Day, obviously not forever but for a week or two, should be at the very least colder than average with the main risk being suppression just like the last passage through eight one and two. 

 

I do think the pattern looks good for after the 15th but between 13th and 16th the h5 look favors a cutter. 

[eduggs]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I will be honest, I'm not sure I understand why the look going past President's Day is not a better than average look for snowfall. 

The blocking remains, therefore pure cutters should be limited. 

Is the problem that the block is too far north? 

If anything it seems we are following the same pattern as the last passage through eight one and two, where we had a large snow storm at the start of The blocking period which favored the Mid-Atlantic, which the GFS is currently showing, followed by a wave providing a light to moderate snowfall with a GFS is showing, followed by a trough in the east which the ensembles are showing. 

Therefore I would believe past President's Day, obviously not forever but for a week or two, should be at the very least colder than average with the main risk being suppression just like the last passage through eight one and two. 

 

Do you really think you can correlate a continental-scale numerical index with a sequence of storms on the east coast of the US?

[bluewave]

Today is a great example of how much of a change can occur with an ensemble mean from 360 hrs to 240hrs. The biggest change at day 10 is the much deeper trough digging into the West around Valentine’s Day. So any speculation based on the present 360 hr run is going to look different when it gets to 240 then 120 and 0 hrs. This is why you want to maximize opportunities closer in since you don’t know what the pattern is going to look like from day 10 and beyond. 

New run

 

Old run

 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Today is a great example of how much of a change can occur with an ensemble mean from 360 hrs to 240hrs. The biggest change at day 10 is the much deeper trough digging into the West around Valentine’s Day. So any speculation based on the present 360 hr run is going to look different when it gets to 240 then 120 and 0 hrs. This is why you want to maximize opportunities closer in since you don’t know what the pattern is going to look like from day 10 and beyond. 

New run

 

Old run

 

Not a bad look . We will be getting a favorable MJO.

[MANDA]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Today is a great example of how much of a change can occur with an ensemble mean from 360 hrs to 240hrs. The biggest change at day 10 is the much deeper trough digging into the West around Valentine’s Day. So any speculation based on the present 360 hr run is going to look different when it gets to 240 then 120 and 0 hrs. This is why you want to maximize opportunities closer in since you don’t know what the pattern is going to look like from day 10 and beyond. 

New run

 

Old run

 

To say there are some substantial differences on those two maps might be an understatement.

[EastonSN+]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not a bad look . We will be getting a favorable MJO.

Blocking Did strengthen even though the trough is a little deeper out in the West. After this time frame is when the trough migrates East. That ridge may be due to an amped up Storm cutting which has been on the models.

[EastonSN+]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Today is a great example of how much of a change can occur with an ensemble mean from 360 hrs to 240hrs. The biggest change at day 10 is the much deeper trough digging into the West around Valentine’s Day. So any speculation based on the present 360 hr run is going to look different when it gets to 240 then 120 and 0 hrs. This is why you want to maximize opportunities closer in since you don’t know what the pattern is going to look like from day 10 and beyond. 

New run

 

Old run

 

I will be honest neither one of those frames look good for our area for snowfall. The old one had more of a spread while the newer run looks more realistic and probably from a storm amping out west. 

What we ended up doing was trading a deeper RNA for stronger blocking.

[NEG NAO]

Both of these next 2 minor events in the immediate NYC metro look to have minor accumulations of 1 - 3 inches and with the second event on Sunday turning to rain and temps in the low 40's most areas around NYC and immediate suburbs will have little or no snow left on the ground after Monday IMO. Amazing how when we get close to these events they end up being no big deals.....