February 2025

[BoulderWX]

10 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I disagree that you can recognize a snow producing event 10+ days out with any reliability. This is not northern Honshu Japan. You can approximate longwave trofs and ridges and associated airmasses useful at the regional-scale. But local snowfall is typically driven by smaller scale features that are not accurately resolvable, even with ensemble modeling, at that distant time range.

Not to be rude but did you even read what I wrote? I never said anything about recognizing a snow event lol. I said you can recognize patterns. That doesn’t guarantee a thing, but it provides clues if you know what you’re looking at. 

[anthonymm]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Patterns change 

 

idk if you can get out of a low snow type pattern we’ve been in just three years. Look at the 80s.

[anthonymm]

12 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I disagree that you can recognize a snow producing event 10+ days out with any reliability. This is not northern Honshu Japan. You can approximate longwave trofs and ridges and associated airmasses useful at the regional-scale. But local snowfall is typically driven by smaller scale features that are not accurately resolvable, even with ensemble modeling, at that distant time range.

This 100%. In our region you cannot see a snowy pattern more than 7 days out. There is simply too much volatility and moving pieces. 

[eduggs]

5 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Not to be rude but did you even read what I wrote? I never said anything about recognizing a snow event lol. I said you can recognize patterns. That doesn’t guarantee a thing, but it provides clues if you know what you’re looking at. 

Yes I did read what you wrote. Every word.

Each synoptic setup or configuration of weather features is unique. But we are simple creates that like to lump things into simple boxes so we can interpret them based on black and white causal relationships. Sure we might be able to broadly anticipate regions of high latitude ridging and troughing 10+ days out... what we simplistically refer to as a "pattern." But that leaves a ton of uncertainty regarding the chance for snow in our backyards.

That is why I responded by talking about the LR prediction of snow vs. "pattern" because snow is what we're actually talking about.

[eduggs]

The 0z CMC looks like it moved further away from the GFS for next week. It doesn't have precipitation in the southeast early next week and shows a fairly zonal flow. Edited to add that it fortunately still has a significant event just delayed.

[eduggs]

41 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Not to be rude but did you even read what I wrote? I never said anything about recognizing a snow event lol. I said you can recognize patterns. That doesn’t guarantee a thing, but it provides clues if you know what you’re looking at. 

After many many years of model watching and weather tracking, I have not come across anyone who can interpret clues in LR modeling that can reliably predict snow events. Maybe I would grant that occasionally people are able to anticipate colder/warmer or wetter/drier than normal periods. And in the most simple sense, wetter+colder would give you a better than normal chance for snow.

But for the most part I think there are a lot of correlation-causation fallacies at work, perception bias, and a whole lot of other wishful thinking and delusion. It reminds me of stock traders who are convinced they can use their algorithms to pick winners when study after study shows that they perform not better than monkeys.

[vegan_edible]

57 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

idk if you can get out of a low snow type pattern we’ve been in just three years. Look at the 80s.

 

[wdrag]

Good morning: I know the middle of next week looks impressive but am a little concerned about the track slipping. south. No thread for the 12th-13th yet... trying to main focus on these next two events-

Those first two threads intact though I may adjust timing slightly slower arrival-departure on the 5th-6th but no change on that till this evening, if then.  

There definitely will be a pr ceding narrow snow streak  across s PA-n MD-DE-S NJ Wed and not sure if you looked at WSSI-P and NWS ensemble chance of 1/4" glaze... but the major icing impact looks to be central PA mountains to the nw suburbs of DC-Baltimore-Philly, whereas we get a little more snow on the front end up here. Also...note that qpf for the 5th-6th is not all that large when we get north of I80. 

I'll check back late today... keep these winter events on track. 

 

[wdrag]

Your call group:  I dont see much to excited about Valentines Day onward,  at least not yet... so if we didnt have these two events this week, I'd probably have started a thread this morning (Potential Winter Storm Tue 11th-Thu 13th).

My question to you: It looms large but as we know lots can wrong...  I can go ahead and start a new thread later today when I get home or wait til 4PM Thursday the 6th.  Your call--the idea is for the benefit of the forum.

IF the response is a general no, then continue in the Feb thread for another two days. Thanks in advance for your feedback... forum benefit. 

[LibertyBell]

On 2/2/2025 at 8:29 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

JFK east went over to rain.  LGA west I’m not sure they ever did.  Maybe for an hour or so they got some light rain but then it went back below freezing.  Most areas simply just dry slotted 

it only changed to rain in the last hour or two here from what I remember.  Around 8 inches at JFK?

[LibertyBell]

On 2/2/2025 at 8:22 PM, NorthShoreWx said:

December 2000 we had about 30 minutes of light rain before flipping back to a half inch of bonus snow.  Totalled just over 11".  Closer to 15" all snow just a few miles west of us.

One of my favorite storms, never changed to rain (the rain/snow line was north south rather than east west).

[bluewave]

With gradient patterns we generally have to take it one storm at a time. Since each storm coming through the fast flow determines exactly where the gradient will be for the storm behind it. So I agree with the sentiment that any snowfall forecasts beyond around 5 days are very uncertain. Typically the snow to mix to rain occurs between I-78 to I-84. But it’s possible that after the 10th we can get a storm or two that comes in a little further south than over the next week or so. As for the longevity of this pattern it’s even more uncertain beyond the 20th. So just enjoy the active pattern for now. 

[LibertyBell]

34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

With gradient patterns we generally have to take it one storm at a time. Since each storm coming through the fast flow determines exactly where the gradient will be for the storm behind it. So I agree with the sentiment that any snowfall forecasts beyond around 5 days are very uncertain. Typically the snow to mix to rain occurs between I-78 to I-84. But it’s possible that after the 10th we can get a storm or two that comes in a little further south than over the next week or so. As for the longevity of this pattern it’s even more uncertain beyond the 20th. So just enjoy the active pattern for now. 

is it possible we get into a suppressed pattern after the 14th and we go cold and dry like we were in January, Chris?

 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

is it possible we get into a suppressed pattern after the 14th and we go cold and dry like we were in January, Chris?

 

I doubt it. We don't have a big block this time.

[EastonSN+]

The wave looks a little healthier now heading to phase 8. Looking at the pic below seems to be inline with the same track as the last wave. 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

With gradient patterns we generally have to take it one storm at a time. Since each storm coming through the fast flow determines exactly where the gradient will be for the storm behind it. So I agree with the sentiment that any snowfall forecasts beyond around 5 days are very uncertain. Typically the snow to mix to rain occurs between I-78 to I-84. But it’s possible that after the 10th we can get a storm or two that comes in a little further south than over the next week or so. As for the longevity of this pattern it’s even more uncertain beyond the 20th. So just enjoy the active pattern for now. 

Mjo and Strat favor the pattern continuing after the 20th. 
 

Are you seeing a Nina blow torch to end the month? 

[EastonSN+]

26 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I doubt it. We don't have a big block this time.

Yeah, at least for now it looks to be strong but not to the level of the last blocking episode. 

 

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Mjo and Strat favor the pattern continuing after the 20th. 
 

Are you seeing a Nina blow torch to end the month? 

We have no idea how long this will continue past the 20th since this is more of a reflective event which is subject to reversal longer range.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We have no idea how long this will continue past the 20th since this is more of a reflective event which is subject to reversal longer range.

 

 

How does the upcoming stratospheric event play into this?

[BoulderWX]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Your call group:  I dont see much to excited about Valentines Day onward,  at least not yet... so if we didnt have these two events this week, I'd probably have started a thread this morning (Potential Winter Storm Tue 11th-Thu 13th).

My question to you: It looms large but as we know lots can wrong...  I can go ahead and start a new thread later today when I get home or wait til 4PM Thursday the 6th.  Your call--the idea is for the benefit of the forum.

IF the response is a general no, then continue in the Feb thread for another two days. Thanks in advance for your feedback... forum benefit. 

Between the two we already have open and this one, my preference would be to wait a couple more days and get better idea of the potential. We’ll still have more than enough lead time. 

[TriPol]

9 hours ago, anthonymm said:

This 100%. In our region you cannot see a snowy pattern more than 7 days out. There is simply too much volatility and moving pieces. 

February 2006's 384 JMA called. It wants its historic blizzard back.

[cleetussnow]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Your call group:  I dont see much to excited about Valentines Day onward,  at least not yet... so if we didnt have these two events this week, I'd probably have started a thread this morning (Potential Winter Storm Tue 11th-Thu 13th).

My question to you: It looms large but as we know lots can wrong...  I can go ahead and start a new thread later today when I get home or wait til 4PM Thursday the 6th.  Your call--the idea is for the benefit of the forum.

IF the response is a general no, then continue in the Feb thread for another two days. Thanks in advance for your feedback... forum benefit. 

Wait til Thursday is my vote

[Stormlover74]

30 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Wait til Thursday is my vote

I agree. Let's get event #1 out of the way first

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I agree. Let's get event #1 out of the way first

Agree. To many threads currently 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Agree. To many threads currently 

Where has snowman disappeared to?

[Neblizzard]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Where has snowman disappeared to?

Forecast discussion thread obsessing about how strong La Niña is getting.  Daily limited poster now for years .   His trolling didn’t get him brownie points. 

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Where has snowman disappeared to?

Idk. I hope everything is okay…

 

He normally is pretty active for a daily limit poster 

[wdrag]

RE; Feb 11-13. Enough feedback via comments and no go ahead comments, that I'll wait til 4P Thu.  

The only tipping point-caveat is if CPC or WPC goes moderate risk for a major event (heavy snow) in any post after 330PM today.  That would be blaring a message of concern due to potential extensive cover of 3+, interruptions etc and force us to get on-board.

For now, this can and will wait barring any CPC-WPC confident messaging. Thank you all!

 

 

 

[eduggs]

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

All riding on that one storm next week. Hopefully the guidance is correct