February 2025

[SnoSki14]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Does that include the inch that fell last night? 

No. This will be from Feb 5-20

[MJO812]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Does that include the inch that fell last night? 

I'm so confused.  What ridge trended stronger ? 

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm definitely screenshotting this.

Some posters will just be negative to be negative 

 

I’m all for different points of view and concerns with how things could go wrong. At the end of the day people want to see the results outside their window. 
 

But the last few posts from Snooki are just posts to be negative because of frustration. He will be all excited when we have 6-12 coming from one of these Sw storms. 
 

I remember his meltdown during the last event which gave him 4-5 inches 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Some posters will just be negative to be negative 

 

I’m all for different points of view and concerns with how things could go wrong. At the end of the day people want to see the results outside their window. 
 

But the last view posts from Snooki are just posts to be negative because of frustration. He will be all excited when we have 6-12 coming from one of these Sw storms. 
 

I remember his meltdown during the last event which gave him 4-5 inches 

He is a troll 

[Allsnow]

Just now, MJO812 said:

He is a troll 

I remember when he was the great poster from East Brunswick nj 

 

what happened to him? 

[MJO812]

Euro weeklies keep it going through March.

This is what happens when you have a neutral to weak la Nina combined with favorable mjo and disruption of the PV.

[Allsnow]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Euro weeklies keep it going through March.

This is what happens when you have a neutral to weak la Nina combined with favorable mjo and disruption of the PV.

Going to be a very cold 2nd half of February because of the mjo and pv 

 

[MJO812]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Going to be a very cold 2nd half of February because of the mjo and pv 

 

This isn't a normal February in a La Niña year. 

[Stormlover74]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Going to be a very cold 2nd half of February because of the mjo and pv 

 

Bust?

[Nibor]

27 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs

How am I supposed to take these clown maps seriously from Storm Vista when 21-30 are basically the same red.

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, Franklin0529 said:

Impressive coming from you. Hope it holds 

so do I hope it holds.

In the meantime, you may have noticed a WSA already posted parts of western PA and WVA mountains.  

My guess trimming the usually overdone ZR amount in the EPS, spotty 1/4" glaze thickness likely in each storm. At least spotty power problems central PA, possibly into the Poconos. Not yet a done deal but glad a watch is already out.  Think you'll see more watches post sometime tomorrow and then the associated bordering advisories  by 4A Wednesday.  

I'll be making note of snowfall from 2/5-28 at CP and nw NJ and see if the ensembles were at least half right. 

Finally...multiple models including the globals starting to pick up on the mesoscale banding feature in PA Wednesday.  That one could be a narrow band of 1-3" slippery daylight snowfall vcnty CXY-PHL or CXY-ILG or could it shift a bit north to KTTN?  Pretty sure something happens 12 hr in advance of the primary 9 hour pcpn event down in se PA southern NJ. 

[Franklin0529]

Just now, wdrag said:

so do I hope it holds.

In the meantime, you may have noticed a WSA already posted parts of western PA and WVA mountains.  

My guess trimming the usually overdone ZR amount in the EPS, spotty 1/4" glaze thickness likely in each storm. At least spotty power problems central PA, possibly into the Poconos. Not yet a done deal but glad a watch is already out.  Think you'll see more watches post sometime tomorrow and then the associated bordering advisories  by 4A Wednesday.  

I'll be making note of snowfall from 2/5-28 at CP and nw NJ and see if the ensembles were at least half right. 

Finally...multiple models including the globals starting to pick up on the mesoscale banding feature in PA Wednesday.  That one could be a narrow band of 1-3" slippery daylight snowfall vcnty CXY-PHL or CXY-ILG or could it shift a bit north to KTTN?  Pretty sure something happens 12 hr in advance of the primary 9 hour pcpn event down in se PA southern NJ. 

As always Walt. Thank you for your contribution. Hopefully we can cash in these next couple weeks!! Been a long time coming 

[donsutherland1]

36 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Some posters will just be negative to be negative 

 

I’m all for different points of view and concerns with how things could go wrong. At the end of the day people want to see the results outside their window. 
 

But the last few posts from Snooki are just posts to be negative because of frustration. He will be all excited when we have 6-12 coming from one of these Sw storms. 
 

I remember his meltdown during the last event which gave him 4-5 inches 

After the 10th things should be a lot more promising should the AO go negative. An AO-/NAO below +0.8 is viable.

[wdrag]

Just now, Franklin0529 said:

As always Walt. Thank you for your contribution. Hopefully we can cash in these next couple weeks!! Been a long time coming 

Nothing done yet... this is maybe where catch our breath and or do a reality check tomorrow, along with NWS discussions and views on what is or should be coming.

 

It's highly unusual for us to see a train of disturbances light up the storm track in more or less the same general area for 3 weeks.  I dont want us to have to punt down the line.  Hoping we can get some of this accumulation done by Sunday night. 

[BoulderWX]

58 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Latest euro weeklies

I won’t hate on your excitement and I don’t disagree that the upcoming pattern looks conducive for snowfall. But I can’t understand why we’re posting maps past 180 hours let alone 300. This is why when we get a couple of decent storms, people are disappointed because of fantasy maps. It’s the same thing we decry about twitter. 
 

we get the pattern is getting better. We don’t need these maps

[Rjay]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Some posters will just be negative to be negative 

 

I’m all for different points of view and concerns with how things could go wrong. At the end of the day people want to see the results outside their window. 
 

But the last few posts from Snooki are just posts to be negative because of frustration. He will be all excited when we have 6-12 coming from one of these Sw storms. 
 

I remember his meltdown during the last event which gave him 4-5 inches 

The pattern is just so active.  Odds favor something working out at some point. And if it's multiple somethings it will be a fun month. 

[anthonymm]

7 hours ago, eduggs said:

We'll take it. It's a good mean and we have lots of threats to track. But I would prefer the threats be temporally reversed with the bigger ceiling snow threat (12th) moved to the shorter range and the lower ceiling threat (6th) pushed further out.

As is, we have less time for/chance of the minor events trending snowier and more chance of the currently modeled snowier threat trending less snowy. In other words, regression to the long-term mean. The sequence of "snow" events could easily end up minor/minor/miss or minor/minor/minor with a total accumulation of something like 4-8 inches. I think that would be a great result in the midst of a snow drought, but whether that would provide a sufficiently snowy appeal might depend on exactly how the snow to mix to rain progresses.

100%. I can easily see the first two bring 1 inch of slop and the storm 9 days out that people are hyping to no end bringing 3"ish to the city lol. Going for the under is always wise these days. Dont know how people havent learned yet.

[eduggs]

[anthonymm]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Watch us end up with 2" tops. GFS is on crack 

I can see 3-4" for the city at the end of this.

[eduggs]

10 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

100%. I can easily see the first two bring 1 inch of slop and the storm 9 days out that people are hyping to no end bringing 3"ish to the city lol. Going for the under is always wise these days. Dont know how people havent learned yet.

That's my feeling as well.
But I keep reminding myself that it's also possible for some or all of the next 4 modeled events to work out positively for snow. And most of the time over the past few winters we had nothing to track. So we should embrace the excitement for this period I think.

[anthonymm]

Folks: Unless the euro is showing a bomb in your backyard at a 3 day lead time, expect to get a LOT less than what the long range gfs shows lmao. 9 days out snow forecasts are GARBAGE.

[anthonymm]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

That's my feeling as well.
But I keep reminding myself that it's also possible for some or all of the next 4 modeled events to work out positively for snow. And most of the time over the past few winters we had nothing to track. So we should embrace the excitement for this period I think.

Yea I can get the excitement but the fact that we've gotten essentially nothing notable since Feb 2022 despite plenty of these long ragne fantasy setups is not helping the case. The pattern has been low snow, when in doubt go with the pattern.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Yea I can get the excitement but the fact that we've gotten essentially nothing notable since Feb 2022 despite plenty of these long ragne fantasy setups is not helping the case. The pattern has been low snow, when in doubt go with the pattern.

Patterns change 

 

[BoulderWX]

5 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Folks: Unless the euro is showing a bomb in your backyard at a 3 day lead time, expect to get a LOT less than what the long range gfs shows lmao. 9 days out snow forecasts are GARBAGE.

Even IF you’re one hundred percent correct, you understand you have the option to not follow along until three days out. you haven’t offered anything of substance other than saying we won’t get as much snow as the ops show. That doesn’t take any knowledge or skill. I don’t like snow maps past 3-4 days but you can definitely recognize patterns out to 10-15 days for sure. 

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

I can see 3-4" for the city at the end of this.

For the whole month ?

[Tatamy]

8 minutes ago, eduggs said:

That's my feeling as well.
But I keep reminding myself that it's also possible for some or all of the next 4 modeled events to work out positively for snow. And most of the time over the past few winters we had nothing to track. So we should embrace the excitement for this period I think.

Thanks for posting an ensemble mean.  It amazes me how often colorful clown maps of extended range OP runs are posted.  There are people here who really believe that it is part of our climatic  mean that we will see one or more KU storms every winter.

[eduggs]

3 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

can definitely recognize patterns out to 10-15 days for sure. 

I disagree that you can recognize a snow producing event 10+ days out with any reliability. This is not northern Honshu Japan. You can approximate longwave trofs and ridges and associated airmasses useful at the regional-scale. But local snowfall is typically driven by smaller scale features that are not accurately resolvable, even with ensemble modeling, at that distant time range.

[the_other_guy]

I don’t understand why we keep talking about storms two weeks from now.

 

There’s snow coming in tomorrow night. There may be more snow on Sunday.

 

There are real events at our doorstep and we are chasing phantom possibilities on the 16th that can only lead to disappointment. I dont get the psychology behind it.

In my experience on here, if you are looking at a perfect setup 10 plus days out…it isnt going to work out as depicted

[Stormlover74]

Just now, the_other_guy said:

I don’t understand why we keep talking about storms two weeks from now.

 

There’s snow coming in tomorrow night. There may be more snow on Sunday.

 

There are real events at our doorstep and we are chasing phantom possibilities on the 16th that can only lead to disappointment. I dont get the psychology behind it.

In my experience on here, if you are looking at a perfect setup 10 plus days out…it isnt going to work out as depicted

As I said earlier we have separate threads for those threats therefore this thread is to talk about weather occurring now or in the long range. We know it's probably not going to happen as modeled. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I don’t understand why we keep talking about storms two weeks from now.

 

There’s snow coming in tomorrow night. There may be more snow on Sunday.

 

There are real events at our doorstep and we are chasing phantom possibilities on the 16th that can only lead to disappointment. I dont get the psychology behind it.

In my experience on here, if you are looking at a perfect setup 10 plus days out…it isnt going to work out as depicted

Weenies