February 2025

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Maybe you are confusing me with someone else. For snow event tracking, I generally ignore anything past day 10. And I heavily caveat anything past day 7. I also prefer to look at a mid- and upper levels (esp 500mb) instead of surface charts. Based on this I've thought for several days that we have a higher than usual threat of IP and ZR events. I'm possibly less optimistic than some on here for snow over the next 14 days primarily because I don't love the orientation and evolution of the jet stream(s).

What I do like a lot is the moisture feed, particularly on the GFS/GEFS that allows multiple weak SLP to generate moderate to signifant precipitation in multiple waves. But most of the good stuff is in the long range where ensemble spread is high and not all mid-range modeling is in agreement... so my excitement for snow is kept in check.

Frz rain will not be a issue around the metro 

[Allsnow]

24 hour snow mean for a day 9 threat. Impressive 

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Frz rain will not be a issue around the metro 

Maybe not in Manhattan. But there were two icing events in the past week just outside of the concrete jungle. The upcoming "pattern" produces overrunning waves. That means mid-level warm layers and a ZR risk. The southwest mid-level flow and lack of strong SLP just make it harder to get heavy precipitation and a snow-supporting column together at the same time for more than a few hours.

[Allsnow]

The eps snow mean still 12-13 for the metro. The highest I have seen it since February 2021 

[hudsonvalley21]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc ensembles and eps are very snowy. 

Wait a few more days and see how things look on Thursday before going all in.

 

 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The eps snow mean still 12-13 for the metro. The highest I have seen it since February 2021 

Same as geps

Insane

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

The eps snow mean still 12-13 for the metro. The highest I have seen it since February 2021 

We'll take it. It's a good mean and we have lots of threats to track. But I would prefer the threats be temporally reversed with the bigger ceiling snow threat (12th) moved to the shorter range and the lower ceiling threat (6th) pushed further out.

As is, we have less time for/chance of the minor events trending snowier and more chance of the currently modeled snowier threat trending less snowy. In other words, regression to the long-term mean. The sequence of "snow" events could easily end up minor/minor/miss or minor/minor/minor with a total accumulation of something like 4-8 inches. I think that would be a great result in the midst of a snow drought, but whether that would provide a sufficiently snowy appeal might depend on exactly how the snow to mix to rain progresses.

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Sure but we already have separate threads for those storms so by default this becomes the thread for current weather or talking about long range threats knowing of course their likelihood is low

Thats perfect.  
 

I’ve not looked at guidance ce but checking in and I have no intent or even a thought of anything. Beyond this weekend.  Let’s see if these next two can produce a grand total oF2-4”.  NYC   Take what we can get 

[Allsnow]

17 minutes ago, eduggs said:

We'll take it. It's a good mean and we have lots of threats to track. But I would prefer the threats be temporally reversed with the bigger ceiling snow threat (12th) moved to the shorter range and the lower ceiling threat (6th) pushed further out.

As is, we have less time for/chance of the minor events trending snowier and more chance of the currently modeled snowier threat trending less snowy. In other words, regression to the long-term mean. The sequence of "snow" events could easily end up minor/minor/miss or minor/minor/minor with a total accumulation of something like 4-8 inches. I think that would be a great result in the midst of a snow drought, but whether that would provide a sufficiently snowy appeal might depend on exactly how the snow to mix to rain progresses.

This week was always supposed to peppered with sloppy events. I consider it a win that NYC got 1 inch last night off a very meh event. 
 

The bigger events are now inside day 10 and it’s much better then the ensembles showing cutters/mild weather 

[Allsnow]

 

[bluewave]

50 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Regardless if we get a true ssw or just a displacement it will be very beneficial to continue snow/cold threats. That annular charts showing what looks like paint dripping is a good sign that the effects will Work its way down to our sensible weather.   This month will not be a typical Nina base February like you and I both thought would happen. 

While this is still very much a La Niña base state, a -AO signal emerged over the last 3-4 days of runs for the mid-February 10th through 20th period. The AO has been very volatile in recent years with big swings to positive and negative over short periods.

Hopefully, the gradient can sink far enough south over that period for Central NJ to cash in. But it’s still very uncertain where the gradient will settle. Short range features like how amplified the trough out West gets along with AO strength will probably have to wait a while.

That being said, it’s uncertain how much beyond the 20th the -AO can last with the fast changes we have been seeing in recent years.

 

 

[Nibor]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

This week was always supposed to peppered with sloppy events. I consider it a win that NYC got 1 inch last night off a very meh event. 
 

The bigger events are now inside day 10 and it’s much better then the ensembles showing cutters/mild weather 

It looks active and the ensembles look good long term. I have no idea what the verification has been with the ensembles this winter but it’s seemed decently accurate unlike past winters where things kept getting kicked. Maybe someone with more knowledge can give more insight. 

[Allsnow]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While this is still very much a La Niña base state, a -AO signal emerged over the last 3-4 days of runs for the mid-February 10th through 20th period. The AO has been very volatile in recent years with big swings to positive and negative over short periods.

Hopefully, the gradient can sink far enough south over that period for Central NJ to cash in. But it’s still very uncertain where the gradient will settle. Short range features like how amplified the trough out West gets along with AO strength will probably have to wait a while.

That being said, it’s uncertain how much beyond the 20th the -AO can last with the fast changes we have been seeing in recent years.

 

 

-AO is imo is a result from the Strat hit happening at the end of this week 

and why do we care about snowfall in central nj? 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes. Stratospheric vortex basically elongated by 120h and fully split by D7…then I posted D10 at the bottom. This might have ramifications for prolonging the blocking into late February and March  if we get a full SSW with a clean split  

 

 

 

@snowman19

[bluewave]

38 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

-AO is imo is a result from the Strat hit happening at the end of this week 

and why do we care about snowfall in central nj? 

We can trace the -AO development back to that big wave break with the record low east of Hudson Bay last week. It lead to a near record Scandinavian Ridge which will retrograde back toward Greenland. Hopefully, something happening near Hudson Bay can finally be of some benefit this winter. By Central Jersey I am referring to anything from the I-78 and south for posters in that area. 
 

 

[eduggs]

Warm day today with 50s popping up in a few spots. Feels nice in the sun.

[MANDA]

5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Warm day today with 50s popping up in a few spots. Feels nice in the sun.

Sure made for a quick melt of the overnight snow.  Nothing left here.  More like a mid to late March type melt than the 3rd. of February.

[FPizz]

10 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Sure made for a quick melt of the overnight snow.  Nothing left here.  More like a mid to late March type melt than the 3rd. of February.

If it was 37 and sunny all the snow would have melted too.  

[eduggs]

4 minutes ago, FPizz said:

If it was 37 and sunny all the snow would have melted too.  

The wet bulb temp got above freezing today leading to melting even in shaded areas. At 37F it's more likely the wet bulb would have remained sub freezing, which would have limited melting.

[steve392]

Hit 52 in Dumont, nj.  

[bluewave]

I am definitely doing better here along on the CT Shoreline than I was back on the LI South Shore with these type of gradients. Picked up 3” earlier and still have 2” left on the colder surfaces. High of 43° here today. 

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am definitely doing better here along on the CT Shoreline than I was back on the LI South Shore with these type of gradients. Picked up 3” earlier and still have 2” left on the colder surfaces. High of 43° here today. 

Welcome to the CT shoreline team.

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Welcome to the CT shoreline team.

Thanks. Moved in near the end of the summer back in 2023. Enjoying the much better radiational cooling than I had back on the LI South Shore. Not too far from the Sound so still get great sea breezes in the warm season. 

[Allsnow]

lol at people surprised their inch of snow melted on a 50 degree day 

[BoulderWX]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

lol at people surprised their inch of snow melted on a 50 degree day 

Yeah, I thought I was missing something. People acting like 6” of snow disappeared.

[MJO812]

@snowman19

[Allsnow]

Just now, MJO812 said:

@snowman19

@snowman19!!!

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

@snowman19!!!

As good as a split

[MJO812]

[MJO812]