February 2025

[brooklynwx99]

the thing that's really wild about these runs is that they're prolific before the most favorable window, which is when the block rots. these runs have DC-NYC getting 1-2 feet through the 16th, which is when the block is still developing. the timeframe from the 16-23rd is when you'd expect to see the greatest shot at a true MECS

so the fact that ensembles are showing 8-12" from NYC to DC without a well defined MECS signal is ridiculous

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, CentralNJSnowman said:

Not sure what you mean about the CMC.  It seems to have all the same waves (more or less).  Just has the first couple without the front-end snow and the third one missing just south of us.

I'm actually amazed that all of the models have been showing fairly similar things consistently, run after run for the past 3 days in the 7-14 day range.  Whether this all ends up giving us much snow has been inconsistent, but big picture I don't think I've ever seen them this consistent at this range.

If we have believed the GFS past 5-7 days this winter and it verified we would have had 10 feet of snow already

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You love the cmc way too much . Why isn't it believable? It's a very favorable pattern coming up. Gefs agrees on a big pattern .

The GFS/GEFS is usually wrong past days 5-7 - but then again every dog has its day

[CentralNJSnowman]

8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

If we have believed the GFS past 5-7 days this winter and it verified we would have had 10 feet of snow already

Yes, I remember this run very well...

But there are two big differences:

The global models have all been somewhat in agreement on the period from Feb 6-13

The screenshot I attached lasted for literally one model run.  But all of the models have now been showing a consistent procession of waves in more or less the same place for the past few days of model runs

I have no idea whether any of these will lead to substantial snow, but I like our odds a lot better than at any other time this winter.

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@Allsnow The models have really started to bail on the SSW and an SPV split. It’s becoming more of a wave reflection event now and a major SSWE and split is looking less and less likely:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Crazy how bad they are at this stuff

[eduggs]

15 minutes ago, CentralNJSnowman said:

Not sure what you mean about the CMC.  It seems to have all the same waves (more or less).  Just has the first couple without the front-end snow and the third one missing just south of us.

I'm actually amazed that all of the models have been showing fairly similar things consistently, run after run for the past 3 days in the 7-14 day range.  Whether this all ends up giving us much snow has been inconsistent, but big picture I don't think I've ever seen them this consistent at this range.

The difference is visible on the 500mb (h5) charts. Sorry for not posting the picture, but it's easy enough to check. The 0z/12z CMC squash the wave/sequence of waves around day 10. The GFS has a moist flow from the southwest at h5.

[MJO812]

Gefs likes the 12th

[NEG NAO]

19 minutes ago, CentralNJSnowman said:

Yes, I remember this run very well...

But there are two big differences:

The global models have all been somewhat in agreement on the period from Feb 6-13

The screenshot I attached lasted for literally one model run.  But all of the models have now been showing a consistent procession of waves in more or less the same place for the past few days of model runs

I have no idea whether any of these will lead to substantial snow, but I like our odds a lot better than at any other time this winter.

thanks for proving my point about the long range GFS/GEFS suite of models nonsense

[eduggs]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs likes the 12th

Still very large spread with respect to timing and intensity of precipitation/features at that time frame. Let's get it to day 5 looking like this with less spread...

[eduggs]

The constant theme on here is to overhype bigger, LR threats and underhype smaller, short range threats. (Walt and others are distinct counter examples).

We should probably try to consider the expected value (in snowfall) of a potential future threat. That takes into account likelihood and magnitude. Obviously something modeled at day 9 is much less likely to produce than day 3.

Last night was the 2nd biggest snowfall I've observed locally this winter (missed the Jan snow). It was also the hairiest driving I've experienced this winter. Last night's snow walk with the parachute bombs to end it and no change to rain or mix was full-on winter mode for me. Let's take to the bank what's right in front of us cause we can't count on anything past day 5.

[Stormlover74]

Sure but we already have separate threads for those storms so by default this becomes the thread for current weather or talking about long range threats knowing of course their likelihood is low

[winterwx21]

Mid 40s feels good out there today. I'm going hunting this afternoon for the last time this season. Gonna be a nice afternoon to be out there. 

[brooklynwx99]

lol

[brooklynwx99]

also, big signal on the GEFS for the 12th

[vegan_edible]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Crazy how bad they are at this stuff

excellent work

[forkyfork]

not a fan of the compressed zonal flow under the blocking 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Long duration wintry event on the EC form ~Tue the 11th through Thurs the 13. Similar to the 2-wave GFS run but with flurries/snow showers to bridge the events. I'd prefer the sharp baroclinicity be a little further south. This could easily morph into another mostly mix to rain scenario without a little more buffer.

Or it can morph into a long snow event. I see alot of people like to downplay events.

[North and West]

really hope we get a good stretch the next few weeks. then march 1st its 70 and sunny for the foreseeable future

this is the plot of Camelot


.

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

Middlesex/Union County NJ border at 11:50 A.M temp is 42 and not a trace of snow on the ground completely melted -its not melting up northern NJ yet ?

Just scant traces left here.  Had 1.2" early this morning.

[NEG NAO]

12Z Euro

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z Euro

Seems more realistic. 

[eduggs]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Or it can morph into a long snow event. I see alot of people like to downplay events.

Sure, anything is possible. But since not-snow is more likely than snow and this is still in the long range, I think it's reasonable to hedge against a snowier outcome for now. The next 14 days are far from a slam dunk. I think some snow is very likely, but I'm not sold on anything significant for the metro.

[brooklynwx99]

24 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

not a fan of the compressed zonal flow under the blocking 

luckily with this kind of thermal gradient you can get a significant event with like a 1015mb low

[Allsnow]

14 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Sure, anything is possible. But since not-snow is more likely than snow and this is still in the long range, I think it's reasonable to hedge against a snowier outcome for now. The next 14 days are far from a slam dunk. I think some snow is very likely, but I'm not sold on anything significant for the metro.

The next 14 days have been very snowy on all the ensembles. You have swayed with the wind the past few days on every model run. The threat for next week has been very consistent on the models and yes lots of spread because it’s over a week away…

[Allsnow]

36 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Long duration wintry event on the EC form ~Tue the 11th through Thurs the 13. Similar to the 2-wave GFS run but with flurries/snow showers to bridge the events. I'd prefer the sharp baroclinicity be a little further south. This could easily morph into another mostly mix to rain scenario without a little more buffer.

CMC and Euro Ai have it suppressed 

 

its 9 days away 

[Allsnow]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@Allsnow The models have really started to bail on the SSW and an SPV split. It’s becoming more of a wave reflection event now and a major SSWE and split is looking less and less likely:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regardless if we get a true ssw or just a displacement it will be very beneficial to continue snow/cold threats. That annular charts showing what looks like paint dripping is a good sign that the effects will Work its way down to our sensible weather.   This month will not be a typical Nina base February like you and I both thought would happen. 

[eduggs]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The next 14 days have been very snowy on all the ensembles. You have swayed with the wind the past few days on every model run. The threat for next week has been very consistent on the models and yes lots of spread because it’s over a week away…

Maybe you are confusing me with someone else. For snow event tracking, I generally ignore anything past day 10. And I heavily caveat anything past day 7. I also prefer to look at a mid- and upper levels (esp 500mb) instead of surface charts. Based on this I've thought for several days that we have a higher than usual threat of IP and ZR events. I'm possibly less optimistic than some on here for snow over the next 14 days primarily because I don't love the orientation and evolution of the jet stream(s).

What I do like a lot is the moisture feed, particularly on the GFS/GEFS that allows multiple weak SLP to generate moderate to signifant precipitation in multiple waves. But most of the good stuff is in the long range where ensemble spread is high and not all mid-range modeling is in agreement... so my excitement for snow is kept in check.

[eduggs]

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

CMC and Euro Ai have it suppressed 

 

its 9 days away 

Yes so we have 2 obvious failure modes. Hence the caution w/respect to snow prospects.

[MJO812]

Just now, eduggs said:

Yes so we have 2 obvious failure modes. Hence the caution w/respect to snow prospects.

Cmc ensembles and eps are very snowy. 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Yes so we have 2 obvious failure modes. Hence the caution w/respect to snow prospects.

It just shows the spread currently for something 9 days outs. The warmest of models still give nyc a significant snowstorm next week before any type of changeover