February 2025

[bluewave]

The period starting around the 12th could be our first shot at a coastal development. 
 

[wdrag]

7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

We only received a dusting here - you meant melted by this afternoon ? I wouldn't start any threads yet and the 6Z GFS is nonsense IMO - how many times this winter have we seen this kind of output on the GFS ? Just a couple of days ago it showed this similar solution and the next run it was cut in half or less totals

 

The thread is started... I played it conservative and I hope that can work for everyone. Even TV is talking about it.  I do think we need to be conservative on these threads in advance...play the ballpark but not get too hyped.  As I see it,  both the next two coming events are relatively minor to possibly moderate impact  but they will have impact on travel and be some fun for the forum. 

Banding could enhance in a stripe but overall 1/4-3/4" qpf wintry events are not heavyweights, still they are fun for the snow lover and especially the snow starved NYC-LI group.

If you want to check impact of last evenings basic 1" event I80 axis and 2-3" se NYS-CT...look at the school delays for an event that ended basically at midnight.   

I tend to focus on the hazard.  

You can check all the ensembles through 2/18 positive snow depth change... a conservative ensemble. Pretty impressive. As dry as it was in January... I think we're northern fringing a wetter normal than month.  I dont use Kuchera or 10 to 1 straight up on thread starts unless its short term. 

The most recent thread just ended was not a completely failure... though it was terrible missing that 36 hour+ period of dry weather between ice interior front end Friday morning and then last night's snow... and of course the northward shift of last Friday's ensembled snow.  The back part worked out better than the front. 

[Allsnow]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The period starting around the 12th could be our first shot at a coastal development. 
 

Pretty good consistency from the ensembles of a costal threat around that timeframe 

[SACRUS]

 

28 / 18 dusting of snow overnight.  4 days above normal and 4 near to below over the next 8 with about 1 - 1.5 inches of precip falling.  We'll see how much can be of the frozen variery.  Deep cold nearby north and west with the southern areas very springlike and warm.  Should be a very interesting period with many pieces of energy and systems to track so if one goes wet there should be several others to track for ice/white.  Coffee or Espresso your choice but its looking like one of those periods of tracking.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 64 (1991)
NYC: 64 (1991)
LGA: 64 (1991)
JFK: 62 (1991)


Lows:

EWR: 1 (1955)
NYC: 0 (1955)
LGA: 1 (1955)
JFK: 6 (1961)

 

Historical: 

 

1844: Boston Harbor was so thick with ice on this date that a channel had to be cut through the ice for the "Britannia" ship to leave with 30,000 letters for England.

1917 - Downtown Miami, FL, reported an all-time record low of 27 degrees. (David Ludlum)

1947 - The temperature at Tanacross, AK, plunged to a record 75 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum)

 

1959: At 12:55 am Central Time, a plane took off from runway 17 at the Mason City, Iowa airport, carrying the lives of Buddy Holly, Ritchie Valens, and J. P. "The Big Bopper" Richardson. At the time of departure, the weather was reported as light snow, a ceiling of 3,000 feet with sky obscured, visibility 6 miles, and winds from 20 to 30 mph. At around 9:35 am, Hubert Jerry Dwyer spotted the wreckage less than 6 miles northwest of the airport. The three musicians and the pilot died from this crash.

1987 - Wintry weather was confined to freezing drizzle and light snow in the northeastern U.S., and light rain and snow in the western U.S. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Arctic air continued to invade the central U.S. The temperature at Midland TX plunged from a record high of 80 degrees to 37 degrees in just three hours. Morning lows in the higher elevations of Wyoming were as cold as 38 degrees below zero. Heavy snow blanketed southwestern Colorado, with 16 inches reported at Steamboat Springs. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1989 - A winter storm brought heavy snow and high winds to the western U.S. Up to three feet of snow blanketed the Sierra Nevada of California, and buried parts of northeastern Washington State under three feet of snow in five days. High winds across Washington State reached 75 mph, with gusts to 105 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Severe cold gripped the north central U.S. The morning low of 29 degrees below zero at Casper WY was a record for the month of February. Wisdom MT hit 53 degrees below zero. Missoula MT reported a wind chill reading of 85 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather over the central Gulf coast states during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms spawned seven tornadoes in Alabama, including one which touched down north of Birmingham injuring fifteen people and causing nearly three million dollars damage. A tornado at Margaret injured eleven persons and caused a million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[SACRUS]

 

NYC

Feb 3,  : 17/4 inches of snowfall.

Feb 3 , 1996:   7.5 inches of snowfall

 

Feb 3, 2014: 8.1 inches of snowfall

[SACRUS]

 

1961 17.4 inches NYC

 

[SACRUS]

 

Feb 1996

 

 

[SACRUS]

Feb 3 2014 8 inches at NYC

 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/storm_summaries/2014/storm5/stormsum_2.html

 

https://www.weather.gov/phi/02032014wss

[Allsnow]

56 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Central Park with 0.5 inches yesterday.

How much do they have now for the year? 

I wonder what the record number of accumulating snowfall events before reaching 10 inches for Central Park is.

1 inch yesterday 

 

6.8 YTD 

[wdrag]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

 

Good Monday morning everyone, Feb 3. my 2c on what seems to be ensembled ahead.  Planning. Last night was a snow tease here. There's a pretty good chance that between now and March, much of the I84 corridor will see over a foot of snow, possibly 2 feet, Baltimore-Philly-NYC 6-12". Nothing is guaranteed but we're on the northern fringe of a wetter than normal pattern for the next month, with 30 day melted water equivalent probably at least 4" by March 7. Interstate 84 corridor snow depth (ne PA-nw NJ-NYS-CT-MA) will have almost constant snow cover between Feb 6-March 6 (last nights snowfall may melt completely by tomorrow afternoon). 

Patience will be helpful safely and comfortably navigating the multiple weather related hazardous travel delays and cancellations this month into possibly the first week of March. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Following up further... I did mean snowmelt TOMORROW afternoon.  No mixing today, Lots of clouds and maybe an inversion. I didnt check ACARS aircraft sounding this morning but temps will struggle to rise unless full sunshine.  Yes, we'll melt this afternoon-especially LI and s of I80 in NJ-PA but I think tomorrow is the better day for melting 80 to 100 percent of what fell last night then we refresh a bit Wednesday night. 

[eduggs]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

 

Good Monday morning everyone, Feb 3. my 2c on what seems to be ensembled ahead.  Planning. Last night was a snow tease here. There's a pretty good chance that between now and March, much of the I84 corridor will see over a foot of snow, possibly 2 feet, Baltimore-Philly-NYC 6-12". Nothing is guaranteed but we're on the northern fringe of a wetter than normal pattern for the next month, with 30 day melted water equivalent probably at least 4" by March 7. Interstate 84 corridor snow depth (ne PA-nw NJ-NYS-CT-MA) will have almost constant snow cover between Feb 6-March 6 (last nights snowfall may melt completely by tomorrow afternoon). 

Patience will be helpful safely and comfortably navigating the multiple weather related hazardous travel delays and cancellations this month into possibly the first week of March. 

 

 

God I hope so. It's been a long time since we had a good stretch of events backing events. For me personally it's been even longer due to moving around.

The next 2 snow threats locally both look to have a pronounced warm layer aloft. I'm dubious of big snow locally (though it's possible with big QPF at the onlet). These are wintry threats for sure but possibly only light snow accumulations. The big modeled snow is out at day 9 and beyond. I'm hopeful about this period but I just can't get too excited. Too much can go wrong at that range.

[wdrag]

Perfect timing on the new pins RJAY and unpinning the now self assessed closure of Jan 31-Feb 2.  At least we got an inch LI n shore and NYC (which I could see on the Tunnel approach traffic cams)

For those interested in combined snowfall via the NWS BOM only through the 10th... (beyond the 10th has NYC up to 6+ by the 13th.  Lets start with the next two events, whatever they are...right now the NWS BOM has the attached. 

 

[MANDA]

1.2" here with a melted total of .13".

[SnowGoose69]

Some signs the ensembles may be bailing on the SSW.  IMO I have no issues with that, I think the pattern is otherwise going to be favorable anyway, give me a good few weeks with chances for snow and don't prolong the cold til like 4/15 which is a risk if we get a SSW.

[MJO812]

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

GEFS more or less moving that way, still has a ton of members going into nothing or even back into 2-3 but more today seem to be moving towards 8-1 than previous days

[vegan_edible]

9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Some signs the ensembles may be bailing on the SSW.  IMO I have no issues with that, I think the pattern is otherwise going to be favorable anyway, give me a good few weeks with chances for snow and don't prolong the cold til like 4/15 which is a risk if we get a SSW.

really hope we get a good stretch the next few weeks. then march 1st its 70 and sunny for the foreseeable future

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Pretty good consistency from the ensembles of a costal threat around that timeframe 

That period may serve as a test of how far south we can get the gradient. Real battle setting up between the Southeast Ridge and -AO block over the top with its high pressure. Hopefully, we can eventually get the gradient far enough south so the areas closer to Central Jersey can cash in a bit. But with so much pattern volatility, we may not now how far south the gradient eventually drops this month until we get to within about 120 hrs of the event. 

[snowman19]

36 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Some signs the ensembles may be bailing on the SSW.  IMO I have no issues with that, I think the pattern is otherwise going to be favorable anyway, give me a good few weeks with chances for snow and don't prolong the cold til like 4/15 which is a risk if we get a SSW.

@Allsnow The models have really started to bail on the SSW and an SPV split. It’s becoming more of a wave reflection event now and a major SSWE and split is looking less and less likely:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MANDA]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That period may serve as a test of how far south we can get the gradient. Real battle setting up between the Southeast Ridge and -AO block over the top with its high pressure. Hopefully, we can eventually get the gradient far enough south so the areas closer to Central Jersey can cash in a bit. But with so much pattern volatility, we may not now how far south the gradient eventually drops this month until we get to within about 120 hrs of the event. 

Might be more like 60-72 hours.

[bluewave]

36 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Might be more like 60-72 hours.

Definitely could be. Having the Southeast Ridge allows the WAA near 750 to 850mb to push the temperatures above freezing. This is what we are seeing forecast for the next several events through around the 10th. The models like the NAM actually do pretty good with this warm tongue once within around 48 hrs. 

Beyond February 10th things become more uncertain as to where the gradient will settle. A slightly weaker -AO than forecast could allow the Southeast Ridge to flex a bit more than the current long range forecasts indicate. A stronger -AO could suppress the Southeast Ridge a bit. Plus a wildcard may be how strong a vort diggs into the West.

 

[MJO812]

Here comes the 12th on the gfs

[MJO812]

Part 2 coming behind it 

[eduggs]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Here comes the 12th on the gfs

Trof axis from MT to Baja is a little unnerving. But really good moisture feed. Multiple wave threat.

[eduggs]

The GFS is very wet over a 2+ week period. But the CMC is not on the wave train. ECM mostly supports the GFS.

[NEG NAO]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Following up further... I did mean snowmelt TOMORROW afternoon.  No mixing today, Lots of clouds and maybe an inversion. I didnt check ACARS aircraft sounding this morning but temps will struggle to rise unless full sunshine.  Yes, we'll melt this afternoon-especially LI and s of I80 in NJ-PA but I think tomorrow is the better day for melting 80 to 100 percent of what fell last night then we refresh a bit Wednesday night. 

Middlesex/Union County NJ border at 11:50 A.M temp is 42 and not a trace of snow on the ground completely melted -its not melting up northern NJ yet ?

[NEG NAO]

12Z Canadian not that impressive through 10 days - this is more believable then the 12Z GooFuS model

[CentralNJSnowman]

17 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The GFS is very wet over a 2+ week period. But the CMC is not on the wave train. ECM mostly supports the GFS.

Not sure what you mean about the CMC.  It seems to have all the same waves (more or less).  Just has the first couple without the front-end snow and the third one missing just south of us.

I'm actually amazed that all of the models have been showing fairly similar things consistently, run after run for the past 3 days in the 7-14 day range.  Whether this all ends up giving us much snow has been inconsistent, but big picture I don't think I've ever seen them this consistent at this range.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z Canadian not that impressive through 10 days - this is more believable then the 12Z GooFuS model

You love the cmc way too much . Why isn't it believable? It's a very favorable pattern coming up. Gefs agrees on a big pattern .