Stormlover74 Posted yesterday at 04:15 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:15 AM A little light snow Saturday then over to heavy mixed precip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted yesterday at 04:18 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:18 AM 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: A little light snow Saturday then over to heavy mixed precip A few inches Wednesday night now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted yesterday at 04:20 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:20 AM 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: Agree it's very likely a bad prediction, but it's not wrong until it's wrong. Wtf are you talking about? I have snow plows going down my block. So wrong haha 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted yesterday at 04:37 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:37 AM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted yesterday at 04:37 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:37 AM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted yesterday at 04:39 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:39 AM Both gfs and cmc big hits for the 12th That date has been so steady on the guidance 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted yesterday at 04:42 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:42 AM 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Both gfs and cmc big hits for the 12th That date has been so steady on the guidance Yeah even if it's not all snow could be a nice front end hit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted yesterday at 05:32 AM Share Posted yesterday at 05:32 AM 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah even if it's not all snow could be a nice front end hit 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Fantasy Land - if it still shows this later in the week its for real...... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted yesterday at 05:42 AM Share Posted yesterday at 05:42 AM 9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Fa Fantasy Land - if it still shows this later in the week its for real...... Couple inches Wednesday maybe. Trending colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted yesterday at 06:08 AM Share Posted yesterday at 06:08 AM 0Z Euro in Fantasy Land Range similar to Canadian 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted yesterday at 06:32 AM Share Posted yesterday at 06:32 AM This evening was really nice for a few hours. CT esp looked solid on radar. But I think the mixing in ZR and elevated warm layer despite a cold surface is a sign of things to come. There looks to be several chances for snow coming up. Maybe we get lucky with a well timed front end thump. But out to 8 or 9 days or so it looks like mixed events at best. People like Walt forecast for the hazards. This evening, the driving was certainly very hazardous despite minor snow accumulations. But most of us are looking for more significant snow to enjoy outdoors. I'm excited for tracking but not yet optimistic for the goods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted yesterday at 08:54 AM Share Posted yesterday at 08:54 AM 13 hours ago, bluewave said: There was no real forcing in the 8-1-2 regions. It was mostly In the 4-5 regions. So the +PNA -EPO -AO Niña mismatch pattern was being driven by something else. But it’s possible that the background forcing in 4-5 may have lead to the unfavorable Pacific Jet response. Since Suffolk got 30 inches of snow with a legit MJO 8 back in January 2022. Notice how much more favorable the forcing was closer to and east of the Dateline in January 2022 than in 2025. While I agree that extratropical (non-MJO) forcing played a significant role in the cold Jan 2025 outcome across the eastern/central US, we need to be careful using VP averaged across an entire month. Subseasonal variability clearly played a role here. In addition, the NCEP reanalysis has some notable biases in VP - it tends to show overly positive VP anomalies near C/S. America and Africa. See Stanfield et. al 2024, A Climatological Analysis of Upper-Level Velocity Potential Using Global Weather Reanalysis, 1959–2020: https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/joc.8659 The vast majority of the cold anomalies in the eastern/central US occurred in the first two-thirds of Jan. From around Jan 23 onward it turned warmer than normal. The Jan 1-10 and Jan 11-20 VP anomalies show -VP anomalies migrating from the central/eastern Pacific and W. Atlantic, to the e. Atlantic and w. Africa. The magnitude is not as high as the negative anomalies that developed from the eastern IO to Maritime Continent in the Jan 21-31 period. However, especially in the Jan 11-20 period I would argue the MJO had a significant role, given the coherent wave of -VP (and corresponding +VP across the c/e. Pacific) that developed. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted yesterday at 10:59 AM Share Posted yesterday at 10:59 AM Wow gfs. Lost model lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted yesterday at 11:40 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:40 AM Good Monday morning everyone, Feb 3. my 2c on what seems to be ensembled ahead. Planning. Last night was a snow tease here. There's a pretty good chance that between now and March, much of the I84 corridor will see over a foot of snow, possibly 2 feet, Baltimore-Philly-NYC 6-12". Nothing is guaranteed but we're on the northern fringe of a wetter than normal pattern for the next month, with 30 day melted water equivalent probably at least 4" by March 7. Interstate 84 corridor snow depth (ne PA-nw NJ-NYS-CT-MA) will have almost constant snow cover between Feb 6-March 6 (last nights snowfall may melt completely by tomorrow afternoon). Patience will be helpful safely and comfortably navigating the multiple weather related hazardous travel delays and cancellations this month into possibly the first week of March. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted yesterday at 11:44 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:44 AM 44 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: Wow gfs. Lost model lol Gfs and gefs Epic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted yesterday at 11:45 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:45 AM Eps is rather snowy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted yesterday at 11:52 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:52 AM Euro weeklies 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted yesterday at 11:53 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:53 AM 7 hours ago, the_other_guy said: Wtf are you talking about? I have snow plows going down my block. So wrong haha Haha woke up with a couple of inches this morning, but I guess it wasn't accumulating snow? Maybe it is confectionary sugar? It is absolutely gorgeous outside this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted yesterday at 12:04 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:04 PM this retrograding and decaying Scandi block along with the elongated TPV is often a precursor to some of our larger storms, historically. there are risks before this occurs, mainly around the 8th and 12th, but there's certainly a window for a more prototypical coastal storm between the 18-23rd 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted yesterday at 12:07 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:07 PM 7 hours ago, jconsor said: While I agree that extratropical (non-MJO) forcing played a significant role in the cold Jan 2025 outcome across the eastern/central US, we need to be careful using VP averaged across an entire month. Subseasonal variability clearly played a role here. In addition, the NCEP reanalysis has some notable biases in VP - it tends to show overly positive VP anomalies near C/S. America and Africa. See Stanfield et. al 2024, A Climatological Analysis of Upper-Level Velocity Potential Using Global Weather Reanalysis, 1959–2020: https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/joc.8659 The vast majority of the cold anomalies in the eastern/central US occurred in the first two-thirds of Jan. From around Jan 23 onward it turned warmer than normal. The Jan 1-10 and Jan 11-20 VP anomalies show -VP anomalies migrating from the central/eastern Pacific and W. Atlantic, to the e. Atlantic and w. Africa. The magnitude is not as high as the negative anomalies that developed from the eastern IO to Maritime Continent in the Jan 21-31 period. However, especially in the Jan 11-20 period I would argue the MJO had a significant role, given the coherent wave of -VP (and corresponding +VP across the c/e. Pacific) that developed. Yeah, my point was that it was more a blend of forcing influences across the tropics rather than one well defined MJO pattern like we have seen in recent winters. This goes back to my research with the very strong forcing which occurred near the Maritime Continent back in October. The past La Niña cases similarly saw weaker MJO 4-6 activity from December into January with +PNA and -EPO mismatch patterns for La Niña. The opposite was true with weaker MJO 5 October La Niña patterns and then stronger through the winter. So there has been a well defined inverse relationship with the October to winter patterns. We can see the blend of forcing across the tropics from January 1-20. So we didn’t get the coherent MJO 8 response and 30 inches of snow at Islip which occurred in January 2022. The late January forcing near the Maritime Continent was more the La Niña interseasonal forcing shift which occurs closer to the start of February. This is why the Southeast Ridge typically emerges during La Niña Februaries. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted yesterday at 12:35 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:35 PM Another insane gefs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted yesterday at 12:46 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:46 PM 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Good Monday morning everyone, Feb 3. my 2c on what seems to be ensembled ahead. Planning. Last night was a snow tease here. There's a pretty good chance that between now and March, much of the I84 corridor will see over a foot of snow, possibly 2 feet, Baltimore-Philly-NYC 6-12". Nothing is guaranteed but we're on the northern fringe of a wetter than normal pattern for the next month, with 30 day melted water equivalent probably at least 4" by March 7. Interstate 84 corridor snow depth (ne PA-nw NJ-NYS-CT-MA) will have almost constant snow cover between Feb 6-March 6 (last nights snowfall may melt completely by tomorrow afternoon). Patience will be helpful safely and comfortably navigating the multiple weather related hazardous travel delays and cancellations this month into possibly the first week of March. We only received a dusting here - you meant melted by this afternoon ? I wouldn't start any threads yet and the 6Z GFS is nonsense IMO - how many times this winter have we seen this kind of output on the GFS ? Just a couple of days ago it showed this similar solution and the next run it was cut in half or less totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted yesterday at 12:50 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:50 PM Central Park with 0.5 inches yesterday. How much do they have now for the year? I wonder what the record number of accumulating snowfall events before reaching 10 inches for Central Park is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted yesterday at 12:51 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:51 PM 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: We only received a dusting here - you meant melted by this afternoon ? I wouldn't start any threads yet and the 6Z GFS is nonsense IMO - how many times this winter have we seen this kind of output on the GFS ? We haven't seen all the models agree like this in a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted yesterday at 12:52 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:52 PM 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: We haven't seen all the models agree like this in a while. you really believe we will have back to back MECS or higher next week ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted yesterday at 12:53 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:53 PM Still on track for late February into March taking in lag. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted yesterday at 12:53 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:53 PM Just now, NEG NAO said: you really believe we will have back to back MECS or higher next week ? No but I do believe we will be entering a very favorable pattern. Time to track 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted yesterday at 12:55 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:55 PM Just now, MJO812 said: No but I do believe we will be entering a very favorable pattern. Time to track True - I would cut the 06Z GFS totals in half IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted yesterday at 12:57 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:57 PM Im enjoying this winter. Cold. A lot of little events. Snow on the. ground for many days. For the first time in a long time, it feels like winter. Just need one big one 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted yesterday at 12:57 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:57 PM 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: True - I would cut the 06Z GFS totals in half IMO Same here. Even still that would be nice . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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