February 2025

[steve392]

Snowing in mahwah.  Everything coated so far.

[North and West]

Here we go again with the sun angle

love the sun angle talk. most wonderful time of the year.


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[SnowGoose69]

18Z Euro is a bit colder at the start for the 6th, would definitely have snow for several hours on the next event too

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

18Z Euro is a bit colder at the start for the 6th, would definitely have snow for several hours on the next event too

Yup, about a inch of slop for Wednesday night 

[MJO812]

Snowy gefs

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Snow to rain was one of the things I hated most as a kid. Just rain at that point. Then we got spoiled for many years. Hopefully this upcoming pattern delivers even with that sun angle lol

If we get the rare 5-6” to rain, that’s usually fine with me because some is usually left by the end and it freezes solid behind the storm. Our big Dec 2020 and 2/1/21 storms had some rain or mix in them. But if it’s 1-3” to rain that washes it all away, to me that’s just pointless. 

[steve392]

Decent snow rates in mahwah and into Hawthorne, nj driving home. Got to hackensack and was more intense. All roads coated in powder. People forgetting where the lines are in the road. Ridiculous. 

[hudsonvalley21]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Snowy gefs

Tropical tidbits is stuck on hr 168 for total snow on the 18z run for the GFS.

[steve392]

Snow changing over the sleet/graupel in little ferry, nj

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

4 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Snow changing over the sleet/graupel in little ferry, nj

Put this in OBS 

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If we get the rare 5-6” to rain, that’s usually fine with me because some is usually left by the end and it freezes solid behind the storm. Our big Dec 2020 and 2/1/21 storms had some rain or mix in them. But if it’s 1-3” to rain that washes it all away, to me that’s just pointless. 

Yep I think 4" is the point where it's okay if it flips over.  I remember we had a storm in the early 90s (maybe Feb 93) with 4 inches of snow in 4 hours and then rain for 4 hours.  We got 4 inches and Central Park got 6 inches because they were snow for an extra 2 hours before it changed over there.  There was still enough snow left over at the end for it to look wintry here.

Anything less than 4 and it's not worth it.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Snow to rain was one of the things I hated most as a kid. Just rain at that point. Then we got spoiled for many years. Hopefully this upcoming pattern delivers even with that sun angle lol

When I was a kid and saw this happen I tried to calculate how high a wall would need to put up to block the warmer air from coming in off the ocean or failing that, how much liquid helium we'd need to dump into the ocean to freeze it solid.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, wishcast_hater said:

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They just had a child together!

[SnowGoose69]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yep I think 4" is the point where it's okay if it flips over.  I remember we had a storm in the early 90s (maybe Feb 93) with 4 inches of snow in 4 hours and then rain for 4 hours.  We got 4 inches and Central Park got 6 inches because they were snow for an extra 2 hours before it changed over there.  There was still enough snow left over at the end for it to look wintry here.

Anything less than 4 and it's not worth it.

 

It’s always smart to never go much over 3-5 in any snow to rain event here.  While to can exceed that it takes an extreme circumstance such as the 93 blizzard or very intense banding.  The November 2018 and 93 blizzard are only two snow to rain events I recall that were 6 or more.  Some came close like January 99 December 03 January 91 but all were about 5-5.5 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, North and West said:

A lot of people here are a lot smarter than I am, and I recognize the analytics behind their posts, but I always think of what I mentioned earlier when there are declarations and the emotional aspect behind them.


Always a good reminder that anyone who thinks they know exactly what is going to happen - whether it’s weather, business, demographics, sports, or more - they’re playing a type of confidence game. They’re hoping you don’t know that they don’t know as much they do.

In the past week, who saw the DeepSeek and Luka Doncic news coming? No one.

Always take all of these proclamations with several grains of salt.


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Ever wonder why the reason is that long range forecasts are so inaccurate? It's not just about not having the right tech or enough data..... what if it's that the future is in flux and it isn't set in stone until it actually happens? It would mean that no amount of AI or quantum computing could ever pin down something as specifically chaotic as snowfall amounts and rain/snow lines weeks or even days in advance.  Think about it, what if a whole myriad of futures is possible and little unpredictable chaotic black swan events can alter it radically so there really is no way to predict the future until it actually happens?

For us, an example of a black swan event was the Boxing Day blizzard in December 2010.  Before that snowstorm happened there was talk of a snowless winter because we had less than 3 inches of snow in December and you know how it goes with la ninas with less than 3 inches of snow by New Years Day.  When the GFS latched on to it, everyone laughed because none of the other models did.  The rest as they say is history.

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It’s always smart to never go much over 3-5 in any snow to rain event here.  While to can exceed that it takes an extreme circumstance such as the 93 blizzard or very intense banding.  The November 2018 and 93 blizzard are only two snow to rain events I recall that were 6 or more.  Some came close like January 99 December 03 January 91 but all were about 5-5.5 

January 1991 is the one I remember from the early 90s I think.  We hadn't had a 6+ event in a long time and everyone was excited that we'd get a 6 inch snowstorm even though it would change to rain later.  It snowed most of the day and didn't change to rain until after it was dark, which was perfect timing, the reverse (snow at night rain during the day) would not be as nice.  Of course the following month, February 1991 I think it was, we had the 36 hour 9 inch snowstorm, so we ended the 6 inch snowless streak with a bang (and a busted forecast, as no snow was predicted, it was just supposed to be a frontal passage- and neither BOS nor PHL got snow like we did.)

On the topic of snow to rain, wasn't January 87 another heavy snow to rain storm? Maybe just at the end?

[NorthShoreWx]

20 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It’s always smart to never go much over 3-5 in any snow to rain event here.  While to can exceed that it takes an extreme circumstance such as the 93 blizzard or very intense banding.  The November 2018 and 93 blizzard are only two snow to rain events I recall that were 6 or more.  Some came close like January 99 December 03 January 91 but all were about 5-5.5 

December 2000 we had about 30 minutes of light rain before flipping back to a half inch of bonus snow.  Totalled just over 11".  Closer to 15" all snow just a few miles west of us.

[NorthShoreWx]

23 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It’s always smart to never go much over 3-5 in any snow to rain event here.  While to can exceed that it takes an extreme circumstance such as the 93 blizzard or very intense banding.  The November 2018 and 93 blizzard are only two snow to rain events I recall that were 6 or more.  Some came close like January 99 December 03 January 91 but all were about 5-5.5 

February 1972, 6" to heavy rain that washed most of it away to 6" more on the backside in Syosset.  I was a wee one at the time, but it must have been a range of emotions.  Not ironically, I mostly remember the snowy parts...and great sledding the next day.

[SnowGoose69]

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

January 1991 is the one I remember from the early 90s I think.  We hadn't had a 6+ event in a long time and everyone was excited that we'd get a 6 inch snowstorm even though it would change to rain later.  It snowed most of the day and didn't change to rain until after it was dark, which was perfect timing, the reverse (snow at night rain during the day) would not be as nice.  Of course the following month, February 1991 I think it was, we had the 36 hour 9 inch snowstorm, so we ended the 6 inch snowless streak with a bang (and a busted forecast, as no snow was predicted, it was just supposed to be a frontal passage- and neither BOS nor PHL got snow like we did.)

On the topic of snow to rain, wasn't January 87 another heavy snow to rain storm? Maybe just at the end?

JFK east went over to rain.  LGA west I’m not sure they ever did.  Maybe for an hour or so they got some light rain but then it went back below freezing.  Most areas simply just dry slotted 

[weatherpruf]

53 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yep I think 4" is the point where it's okay if it flips over.  I remember we had a storm in the early 90s (maybe Feb 93) with 4 inches of snow in 4 hours and then rain for 4 hours.  We got 4 inches and Central Park got 6 inches because they were snow for an extra 2 hours before it changed over there.  There was still enough snow left over at the end for it to look wintry here.

Anything less than 4 and it's not worth it.

 

I've seen 4 washed away if it rained steady enough. But I'll take anything this year. Snow to rain, sleet, you name it. Course I don't want my daughter driving to work in it.....

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I've seen 4 washed away if it rained steady enough. But I'll take anything this year. Snow to rain, sleet, you name it. Course I don't want my daughter driving to work in it.....

On 12/15/03 there was probably 6” that by the end was all washed away. It can definitely happen but once over 4-5” it’s tough unless temps really spike up to the 40s. 

[Allsnow]

AI is colder for Wednesday night and still has the thump for Saturday night 

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

AI is colder for Wednesday night and still has the thump for Saturday night 

It's very early but think the 12-13th has the best potential to deliver something of substance aka more than 1-2" of slop. 

[RU848789]

23 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

AI is colder for Wednesday night and still has the thump for Saturday night 

Hey neighbor - I'm in Florida until Tuesday, so need some intel on tonight's snow.  Radar looks decent right now and a friend in town said we had a dusting, but I'm worried none of my friends is going to measure for me  It's. all on your shoulders now, lol.  

[the_other_guy]

where is the guy that declared winter and accumulating snowfall over on 1/29?

that prediction may have been the worst in the history of the forum 

[RU848789]

4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

where is the guy that declared winter and accumulating snowfall over on 1/29?

that prediction may have been the worst in the history of the forum 

Agree it's very likely a bad prediction, but it's not wrong until it's wrong.  

[Roger Smith]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

They just had a child together!

Phil was seeing other groundhogs -- and even badgers and skunks. This is why I am not a philophile.

 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Agree it's very likely a bad prediction, but it's not wrong until it's wrong.  

He is already wrong and that was foolish.

[Stormlover74]

[weatherpruf]

Feb 6…. Not a lucky day in these parts. Strange, my daughter brought home a friend she hadn’t seen since 2/7/10 when they were little kids and we drove to the Camden aquarium to see the drifts, I mean , the fish….he is 22 now.