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February 2025

TriPol

By TriPol,
in New York City Metro

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Cobalt
Cobalt

Wonder whatever happened to this guy

brooklynwx99
brooklynwx99

the 6th and 8th look like potential front end thumps. i doubt they’re all snow or anything like that but some here sneezing at the potential for 2-4” to mix to rain is laughable given how lame the las

wdrag
wdrag

The 00z/3 EPS has above normal snowfall here every week in Feb except the projected very cold one 2/18-24. I've never seen this... probably part of why CPC has us outlooked 2/11-15 I hope so

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rclab

rclab

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I guess you haven't learned in 20 plus years. Forecasts change.

I’ll like your new avatar. Although I do miss your little snowman along with forky’s beautiful elder doll avatars from years ago. I was looking to buy the HO engine but decided to post the screenshot when I saw the caption that was captured. When the warm season arrives we’ll look back and laugh or perhaps cry. Stay well Anthony and hopeful. As always ….

 

 

 

IMG_1146.png

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brooklynwx99

brooklynwx99

Posted
Posted

the 6th and 8th look like potential front end thumps. i doubt they’re all snow or anything like that but some here sneezing at the potential for 2-4” to mix to rain is laughable given how lame the last few years have been

after the 10th things really open up. it’s also, you know, snowing this evening

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Cobalt

Cobalt

Posted
Posted
On 11/5/2024 at 8:56 AM, qg_omega said:

one of the easiest winter forecasts in a long time, look at last year and the year before and extrapolate forward.

On 11/5/2024 at 8:55 AM, qg_omega said:

Nothing has changed, maritime heatwave if anything is strongest its ever been.  Warm and snow less winter is on its way +4 to +8.

On 11/2/2024 at 4:31 PM, qg_omega said:

+4 to +8, 2027 may be ok

On 11/2/2024 at 8:04 AM, qg_omega said:

great job, think your dec - mar average is too low given all the indices you list predicted above.  Will be hard to not be 4+ given the above.

On 10/5/2024 at 1:39 PM, qg_omega said:

 

Alaska below normal we are going to be 4 to 6 above normal

On 9/28/2024 at 12:27 PM, qg_omega said:

4-5-6 all winter

On 9/22/2024 at 1:16 PM, qg_omega said:

Mjo will be lopping 456 all winter, nothing else really matters

On 8/18/2024 at 12:31 PM, qg_omega said:

+4 to +8 DJF early call

On 8/16/2024 at 9:43 PM, qg_omega said:

Warmest winter ever looks increasingly likely 

On 7/19/2024 at 3:10 PM, qg_omega said:

Looks like another record warm and snowless winter incoming.  

 

Wonder whatever happened to this guy

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the 6th and 8th look like potential front end thumps. i doubt they’re all snow or anything like that but some here sneezing at the potential for 2-4” to mix to rain is laughable given how lame the last few years have been

after the 10th things really open up. it’s also, you know, snowing this evening

Agreed. They could trend either way as we get closer. Both systems will not be pure snowstorms as that will wait until after the 10th. 
 

 

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Nibor

Nibor

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the 6th and 8th look like potential front end thumps. i doubt they’re all snow or anything like that but some here sneezing at the potential for 2-4” to mix to rain is laughable given how lame the last few years have been

after the 10th things really open up. it’s also, you know, snowing this evening

Listen here bud, if it ain’t 2 feet it might as well be *insert cliche* because I’m one speed. 

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Cobalt

Cobalt

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

People need to stop saying things with certainty so far out. It’s cringey. 

Should bring pause to whenever a qg_omega or snowman type person comes out of the gate predicting warmth. Are they making a knowledge-based call in accordance to guidance, analogs, etc, or are they betting on persistence giving them an easy win? It's not rocket science to bet on AN each year, they'll be right 8/10 times nowadays. It's the 2/10 where their true character and intentions come to light. 

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

This morning, temperatures were mainly in the teens in and around New York City. Moderation will follow tomorrow, but another brief cold shot is likely around mid-week before temperatures moderate yet again.

In addition, a period of light snow or flurries is possible tonight as warmer air moves northward. A coating to an inch is possible, mainly outside New York City. Some of the distant suburbs could pick up 1"-3" of snow.

There remains uncertainty about the second half of the month. The ECMWF weeklies have now shifted to below normal temperatures after moving to a warmer than normal outlook. The AO is now forecast to go strongly negative. These recent developments increase prospects for a colder pattern. Precipitation will likely be near or somewhat above normal.

The AO is now positive and is expected to remain predominantly positive through the first week of February before falling sharply. Since 1950, just 2 of 19 (11%) of storms with an AO of +2.000 or above during January 15-February 15 saw 6" or more of snow in New York City. In addition, the NAO is likely to remain at +1.000 or above through the first 10-14 days of February. Since 1950, just 1 of 18 (6%) of storms with an NAO of +0.900 or above saw 6" or more snow in New York City. That storm occurred with an AO of -1.769.  As a result, prospects for a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City area will likely be limited through at least the first 10 days of February. The low probability of a 6" or above snowstorm does not mean that there cannot be snowfall or there won't be snowfall. Smaller events are possible.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around January 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was +20.51 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.913 today.

 

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North and West

North and West

Posted
Posted
 
Wonder whatever happened to this guy

A lot of people here are a lot smarter than I am, and I recognize the analytics behind their posts, but I always think of what I mentioned earlier when there are declarations and the emotional aspect behind them.

 

Always a good reminder that anyone who thinks they know exactly what is going to happen - whether it’s weather, business, demographics, sports, or more - they’re playing a type of confidence game. They’re hoping you don’t know that they don’t know as much they do.

In the past week, who saw the DeepSeek and Luka Doncic news coming? No one.

Always take all of these proclamations with several grains of salt.


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Rjay

Rjay

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the 6th and 8th look like potential front end thumps. i doubt they’re all snow or anything like that but some here sneezing at the potential for 2-4” to mix to rain is laughable given how lame the last few years have been

after the 10th things really open up. it’s also, you know, snowing this evening

Personally I hate these snow to rain events with a passion. You don't get to enjoy the snow and then it goes from a waterlogged nightmare to an icy nightmare followed by another waterlogged nightmare.  I do love to watch the snow fall prior to the changeover though. 

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WestBabylonWeather

WestBabylonWeather

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Personally I hate these snow to rain events with a passion. You don't get to enjoy the snow and then it goes from a waterlogged nightmare to an icy nightmare followed by another waterlogged nightmare.  I do love to watch the snow fall prior to the changeover though. 

Snow to rain was one of the things I hated most as a kid. Just rain at that point. Then we got spoiled for many years. Hopefully this upcoming pattern delivers even with that sun angle lol

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, wdrag said:

As time allows, will prob get a thread going for Feb5-6, roughly Noon-noon,  for less than 1" snow/sleet LI/CP/I95 east, and longer ice interior. Need time to catch up as was at Point Pleasant today... including good seafood at Spikes.  Will check in at 8P.

 

For less than 1 inch - no thread needed IMO -sorry - but the 18Z GFS has up to 3

 

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