February 2025

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps isn't that warm 

why bother-- if it's not going to snow it should be 60 and sunny

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

If we can keep getting at least pieces of cold air masses coming eastward after the first half of February, the PNA becomes less important due to the shortening of wave lengths. A number of the biggest storms during the second half of February have occurred with a PNA-. But let's see where we are as we near mid-February.

winter 1966-67 is a case in point with both the west coast and the east coast having a historically great winter in February and March.

 

[NEG NAO]

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps isn't that warm 

 

40 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Bring it

if it shows that 5 - 7 days out I will believe it plus it will be a one day or so warm up if it even verifies

[Monty]

22 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

why bother-- if it's not going to snow it should be 60 and sunny

If you reduced by just 50% the number of times you post just to tell us what kind of weather you prefer, the world will be a better place. 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, Monty said:

If you reduced by just 50% the number of times you post just to tell us what kind of weather you prefer, the world will be a better place. 

not happening

[NEG NAO]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Eps isn't that warm 

 

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Bring it

if it shows that 5 - 7 days out I will believe it plus it will be a one day or so warm up if it even verifies -12Z Euro AI

[MJO812]

Euro weeklies are cold with alot of precip for February

[NEG NAO]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro weeklies are cold with alot of precip for February

I would say 2009 -2010 could be an analog for this season IF it ends up being cold and very snowy in Feb - BIG IF though ! and not a prediction ! 2009 -2010 had 3 cold months below avg Dec - Feb - a basically low snowfall of a couple inches in January- BUT a snowier December......and all time snowiest Feb of 36 inches - we are overdue to break this precip drought one way or the other

[Stormlover74]

25 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I would say 2009 -2010 could be an analog for this season IF it ends up being cold and very snowy in Feb - BIG IF though ! and not a prediction ! 2009 -2010 had 3 cold months below avg Dec - Feb - a basically low snowfall of a couple inches in January- BUT a snowier December......and all time snowiest Feb of 36 inches - we are overdue to break this precip drought one way or the other

That was an el nino

[NEG NAO]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

That was an el nino

it doesn't matter in my opinion if 2 winters temperature and snowfall patterns are similar they can be analogs for one another IMO . Plus how long have we actually been categorizing El Nino and LaNina events since record keeping began ?

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

it doesn't matter in my opinion if 2 winters temperature and snowfall patterns are similar they can be analogs for one another IMO . Plus how long have we actually been categorizing El Nino and LaNina events since record keeping began ?

I don't think we're going to suddenly get 5-6" of precipitation like that February 

[LibertyBell]

40 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I would say 2009 -2010 could be an analog for this season IF it ends up being cold and very snowy in Feb - BIG IF though ! and not a prediction ! 2009 -2010 had 3 cold months below avg Dec - Feb - a basically low snowfall of a couple inches in January- BUT a snowier December......and all time snowiest Feb of 36 inches - we are overdue to break this precip drought one way or the other

we'll break it and probably go right back to it later in the season or in springtime.

I don't think it ever actually breaks, we just get respites from it for a few weeks.

 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

I don't think we're going to suddenly get 5-6" of precipitation like that February 

thats why I said its a BIG IF - but on the other hand extreme events seem to be common these last few years so I wouldn't close the door on the possibility....

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

thats why I said its a BIG IF - but on the other hand extreme events seem to be common these last few years so I wouldn't close the door on the possibility....

I highly doubt it. Feb will be warmer, wetter and perhaps snowier than January if we can time the precip during periods of colder temps

[Stormlover74]

I'll go +2 with 2 to 3" of precip

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I highly doubt it. Feb will be warmer, wetter and perhaps snowier than January if we can time the precip during periods of colder temps

considering how cold January has been and avg temps in February usually rise - it won't be difficult for it to be warmer - timing of storms in cold or warm periods is impossible to predict in advance.....

[NEG NAO]

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'll go +2 with 2 to 3" of precip

Good Luck getting the temperature 2 degrees above avg this winter in Feb.........I agree with your precip totals maybe 3- 4 inches though but temps closer to normal

[SnoSki14]

29 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Good Luck getting the temperature 2 degrees above avg this winter in Feb.........I agree with your precip totals maybe 3- 4 inches though but temps closer to normal

Really I think it should be pretty easy. Ensembles are quite warm. 

[NorthShoreWx]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

winter 1966-67 is a case in point with both the west coast and the east coast having a historically great winter in February and March.

 

66-67 was a great winter, but lots of thaws, some with cutters.  75" seasonal snowfall at OKX would have made people here happy, but the way it got there might have driven some over the edge.

My earliest memory of snow (or just about anything) is from that winter.

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

I don't think we're going to suddenly get 5-6" of precipitation like that February 

Suppression shouldn't be an issue next month . I don't see any big blocks.

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Really I think it should be pretty easy. Ensembles are quite warm. 

Next month will start off warm and then go back to a colder pattern. February should end up a cold month .

[MJO812]

Much better press for next weekends storm

[jm1220]

27 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Much better press for next weekends storm

Going into Feb gradient patterns are concerning. Might be great for Boston but cold rain/sleet here. It’s also still a Nina and Feb Nina’s try to pump the SE ridge. To our south is naturally starting to warm up and that will have more of an influence. We’d really need a strong high or confluence to keep us on the cold side of any gradient. 

[NEG NAO]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Next month will start off warm and then go back to a colder pattern. February should end up a cold month .

This is warm ?

[NEG NAO]

The 0Z Euro only has 1 above normal temp day the first week or 7 days of Feb, the above normal temps stay below the Mason Dixon line for the most part as the arctic air is close by to the north - individual storm chances to be determined - too far out for those details....

[Snowlover11]

we need a torch, sick of the cold and dryness.  If it ain’t gunna snow, get this cold the hell outta here.

[wdrag]

May begin a thread at 8A for 2/1-2 snow to rain LI and snow to ice interior suburbs...some accumulation all areas... for NYC probably  just minor but so early in the analysis. More at 8A. 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

66-67 was a great winter, but lots of thaws, some with cutters.  75" seasonal snowfall at OKX would have made people here happy, but the way it got there might have driven some over the edge.

My earliest memory of snow (or just about anything) is from that winter.

I remember when we were going for the record in 1995-96, Newsday put an article up about comparing it to the best winters at Upton and that was the winter 1995-96 was shooting for (and blew away by more than 15 inches thanks to that snowstorm in April.)

The things that make 1966-67 really stand out is it came at the end of a historically dry period and after our hottest summer on record to that point, the previous winter was an el nino that heavily favored areas south of us, and the winter got started off right with one of our snowiest Christmas eve storms on record.  The period from February through March was also historically snowy (30+ inches in each month at Upton) and featured Long Island's latest below 0 reading (close to the vernal equinox.)

There were no HECS blockbuster snowstorms that winter but we did get over a foot of snow in an event in February and an event in March.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

This is warm ?

warmer after the 2nd

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

Good Luck getting the temperature 2 degrees above avg this winter in Feb.........I agree with your precip totals maybe 3- 4 inches though but temps closer to normal

+2 is very doable. +5 maybe not.... I'd say +2 to +3

you can still get a lot of snow with +2 to +3