SnoSki14 Posted Sunday at 08:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:32 PM 1 minute ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: Wait I thought winter was over? Quite a few had it cancelled on January 29th. Lol So far I'm seeing a bunch of pretty maps and no results. We'll see what happens in a few weeks. I continue to believe the boundary ends up further north. Great pattern for SNE points north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted Sunday at 08:33 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:33 PM 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: the 2 chances of accumulating snow we thought we had a good chance of the 6th and the 9th is mainly liquid now - Yup we're kicking that can. That's why we can't buy into colorful maps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Sunday at 08:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:34 PM 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: So far I'm seeing a bunch of pretty maps and no results. We'll see what happens in a few weeks. I continue to believe the boundary ends up further north. Great pattern for SNE points north. that seems to be the trend happened to the 6th and 9th events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Sunday at 08:35 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:35 PM 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: the 2 chances of accumulating snow we thought we had a good chance of the 6th and the 9th is mainly liquid now according to Upton at 3 pm update - no new storm threads in site..... Upton doesn't make the final call on who sees what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Sunday at 08:35 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:35 PM 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Yup we're kicking that can. That's why we can't buy into colorful maps. Who is kicking the can ? Jeez some of you are just miserable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Sunday at 08:36 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:36 PM Just now, NEG NAO said: that seems to be the trend happened to the 6th and 9th events Euro just came alot further south for the 9th from 0z. I do think that will be snow to rain down here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Sunday at 08:36 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:36 PM Just now, NEG NAO said: oh I forgot - you do - sorry......... I guess you haven't learned in 20 plus years. Forecasts change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted Sunday at 08:38 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:38 PM Just now, MJO812 said: Euro just came alot further south for the 9th from 0z. I do think that will be snow to rain down here . A slopfest is possible for sure. Better chance for more frozen with the 9th system however only a slight north trend would lead to mainly rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted Sunday at 08:39 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:39 PM Anything happening next 10 days outside of rain? 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 08:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:41 PM 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: yes sir - sorry he showed you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 08:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:41 PM 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Anything happening next 10 days outside of rain? 70’s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 08:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:41 PM 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: A slopfest is possible for sure. Better chance for more frozen with the 9th system however only a slight north trend would lead to mainly rain It doesn't change the fact that the pattern will get much better after the 10th. Let's just hope it doesn't lead to suppression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Sunday at 08:42 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:42 PM 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Who is kicking the can ? Jeez some of you are just miserable. Yeah the next 10 days is gravy before the pattern in scope occurs, or hopefully occurs. All the guidance is pointing to it so the chances are better than average. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted Sunday at 08:43 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:43 PM 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Have you looked at the other guidance for day 10-20 at 12z today? All caved towards the eps the Strat disruption can still cause block and cold without a full ssw or it being coupled. Strat disruption played a huge role in how cold the 14/15 winter was locally If the EPS 500 mb look verifies, then you would probably want to see more coupling than we have seen so far this season. This is why the -AO back in January faded pretty quickly. With coupling we would get more than a 5-7 day window where the gradient can finally sink to our south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Sunday at 08:43 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:43 PM 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: 70’s? the decade ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 08:44 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:44 PM 41 minutes ago, Dark Star said: BANDING anything is better than *puking* 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 08:44 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:44 PM 1 hour ago, bluewave said: There was no real forcing in the 8-1-2 regions. It was mostly In the 4-5 regions. So the +PNA -EPO -AO Niña mismatch pattern was being driven by something else. But it’s possible that the background forcing in 4-5 may have lead to the unfavorable Pacific Jet response. Since Suffolk got 30 inches of snow with a legit MJO 8 back in January 2022. Notice how much more favorable the forcing was closer to and east of the Dateline in January 2022 than in 2025. I’m not disagreeing that we had p8 in January 2022 but there was a 8-1-2 Mjo pass this past January. The roundy and RMM plots verify this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 08:46 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:46 PM 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: If the EPS 500 mb look verifies, then you would probably want to see more coupling than we have seen so far this season. This is why the -AO back in January faded pretty quickly. With coupling we would get more than a 5-7 day window where the gradient can finally sink to our south. This will last more then 5-7 days after mid month the fear will be suppression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted Sunday at 08:46 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:46 PM 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Who is kicking the can ? Jeez some of you are just miserable. How many inches of snow do you have since February 2022? I'm just wondering. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 08:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:48 PM 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Yeah the next 10 days is gravy before the pattern in scope occurs, or hopefully occurs. All the guidance is pointing to it so the chances are better than average. IMO The prime time will be from Super Bowl Sunday till Presidents’ Day. Then we will be In suppression city with very cold weather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted Sunday at 08:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:48 PM 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: This will last more then 5-7 days after mid month the fear will be suppression. Will always take my chances with cold and active Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted Sunday at 08:49 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:49 PM if we do no have any big snows on the horizon i rather it just be cold and dry good walking weather.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted Sunday at 08:50 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:50 PM I had said days ago don't buy into the 8th setup, even the 6th will be all rain at the coast probably because the high position is bad. The 8th has a chance of starting as something frozen but more likely PL or FZRA. Thereafter is where snow is more likely but still probably more of a classic SWFE where it goes snow to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted Sunday at 08:50 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:50 PM 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: IMO The prime time will be from Super Bowl Sunday till Presidents’ Day. Then we will be In suppression city with very cold weather Not necessarily. The SE ridge will keep fighting back as it does in Nina Febs. We could use some luck with where the gradient sets up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted Sunday at 08:50 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:50 PM My house is on the market now and open houses scheduled for next weekend. So we can bank on a blizzard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted Sunday at 08:51 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:51 PM Just now, psv88 said: My house is on the market now and open houses scheduled for next weekend. So we can bank on a blizzard. Where you moving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 08:51 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:51 PM Euro Ai has a decent front end Wednesday night and a good thump Saturday night. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted Sunday at 08:52 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:52 PM 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Not necessarily. The SE ridge will keep fighting back as it does in Nina Febs. I think the SE ridge is gonna be pretty much toasted after 2/15, but I don't fear suppression really as of now. I think likely lack of a strong -NAO should prevent that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 08:52 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:52 PM 1 minute ago, psv88 said: My house is on the market now and open houses scheduled for next weekend. So we can bank on a blizzard. Good luck. It’s a sellers market 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted Sunday at 08:52 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:52 PM 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Euro Ai has a decent front end Wednesday night and a good thump Saturday night. Best case scenario that we could hope for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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