Allsnow Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 EPS snow mean continues to increase for NYC metro up to 13 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 33 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Huge ridge bridge block on the op euro There's definitely some promising developments but we need to see actual hits. Day 10+ maps are pretty to look at but we need results. So focus on one system at a time. Looking to see if we can score anything tonight and then midweek. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Just now, SnoSki14 said: There's definitely some promising developments but we need to see actual hits. Day 10+ maps are pretty to look at but we need results. So focus on one system at a time. Looking to see if we can score anything tonight and then midweek. Definitely first shot is this weekend imo. Then we see what happens around the 12/13th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: @CoastalWx 192h now…almost inside a week now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Definitely first shot is this weekend imo. Then we see what happens around the 12/13th Watch us end up in a screw zone with earlier systems targeting SNE & north and mid Feb systems favoring southern areas due to TPV suppression. That's kind of what the Euro shows 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: If I'm not mistaken your referencing the 5-day window for an opportunity for a benchmark track/heavy snowfall correct? With regards to temperatures and light events like tonight, our window should extend another 10 days given that we still need to traverse through phases one and two, which I believe each phase has a muted Southeast ridge due to ridging out west. The MJO hasn’t been driving the pattern this winter. This has been a combination of tropical forcing in multiple regions. So expectations based on past MJO events haven’t worked out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Rest up and buckle up should be retired forever!Also, “ripping.” It could just be “it’s snowing hard.”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: The MJO hasn’t been driving the pattern this winter. This has been a combination of tropical forcing in multiple regions. So expectations based on past MJO events haven’t worked out. You don’t think it helped enhance the cold across the states in January with 8-1-2 passage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 11 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The stratosphere and troposphere have been decoupled this winter. So our fortunes will probably rise or fall on what happens closer to 500mb. Hopefully, the EPS ends up being more correct than the other guidance day 10 to 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: The stratosphere and troposphere have been decoupled this winter. So our fortunes will probably rise or fall on what happens closer to 500mb. Hopefully, the EPS ends up being more correct than the other guidance day 10 to 20. Have you looked at the other guidance for day 10-20 at 12z today? All caved towards the eps the Strat disruption can still cause block and cold without a full ssw or it being coupled. Strat disruption played a huge role in how cold the 14/15 winter was locally 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Still just 29 degrees here. Temp isn't going anywhere near forecast today because it's cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 24 minutes ago, Allsnow said: You don’t think it helped enhance the cold across the states in January with 8-1-2 passage? There was no real forcing in the 8-1-2 regions. It was mostly In the 4-5 regions. So the +PNA -EPO -AO Niña mismatch pattern was being driven by something else. But it’s possible that the background forcing in 4-5 may have lead to the unfavorable Pacific Jet response. Since Suffolk got 30 inches of snow with a legit MJO 8 back in January 2022. Notice how much more favorable the forcing was closer to and east of the Dateline in January 2022 than in 2025. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Most robust we've seen in quite a while. We will see what ptypes fall where. Just nice to see the QPF for a change. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 That is a cold looking pattern for around mid-month. It is 10-14 days out so we'll see if it backs off as time goes on but will be impressive if it verifies. We'll need to get our snow before pattern potentially becomes suppressive, at least for a while around mid-month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 22 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Still just 29 degrees here. Temp isn't going anywhere near forecast today because it's cloudy. Yup, temp bust today. Haven’t gotten above 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 cold and active. love to see it 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 19 minutes ago, MANDA said: That is a cold looking pattern for around mid-month. It is 10-14 days out so we'll see if it backs off as time goes on but will be impressive if it verifies. We'll need to get our snow before pattern potentially becomes suppressive, at least for a while around mid-month. ugh not more suppression..... why can't it be suppressed until it reaches the ocean and then climb up the coast? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: yeah, the March 2018 comparisons are growing more and more legit. again, not quite as anomalous but the similarities are pretty glaring Maybe not quite as anomalous because it's February and not March? A few of those systems were quite borderline so more snow should be expected than we had that month since we're still in the middle of winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: All three systems fwiw pretty to look at It's interesting that there's 15.1 inches south of us in Delaware and 14.6 inches north of us in CT, so are these 3 systems a mix of SWFE and suppressed? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: It's interesting that there's 15.1 inches south of us in Delaware and 14.6 inches north of us in CT, so are these 3 systems a mix of SWFE and suppressed? Ridiculous I give that a 10% chance of verifying 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 hour ago, North and West said: Also, “ripping.” It could just be “it’s snowing hard.” . BANDING 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Nice shift to colder on the ECMWF weeklies. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 MJO is going strongly into phase 8, 1 and 2. The period will last at least a few weeks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Nice shift to colder on the ECMWF weeklies. Let’s go!!!! mean snowfall 25 for nyc haha 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: MJO is going strongly into phase 8, 1 and 2. The period will last at least a few weeks. Wait I thought winter was over? Quite a few had it cancelled on January 29th. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Euro weeklies colder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Just now, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: Wait I thought winter was over? Not anytime soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 the 2 chances of accumulating snow we thought we had a good chance of the 6th and the 9th is mainly liquid now according to Upton at 3 pm update - no new storm threads in site..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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