LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 05:13 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:13 PM 28 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The NAO chart is suspect. Here's the GEFS forecast from NCEP: On the official site, not a single member of the GEFS forecasts an NAO value near -2.000 by February 15. Also, for February 2010, the NAO was at or below -1.000 on 14/28 (50%) days and < 0 on all 28 days. That is not going to be the case this February. The NAO's preliminary values for February 1 and 2 are +1.269 and +1.535. A February 2010 NAO scenario is not on the table. Don, are the Euro HIRES and EPS nao projections accurate though, they have the NAO around -2 to even -3 (EPS) by the 15th also (between the 11th and the 17th)..... the Euro AI drops it down even lower than that all the way down to -5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 05:17 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:17 PM 21 minutes ago, jm1220 said: 12z GFS would just be a gut punch. But thing is it's totally feasible here. And it's that kind of winter. Still plenty of chances coming with that block established at the end of the run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted Sunday at 05:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:27 PM 11 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Still plenty of chances coming with that block established at the end of the run GEFS with much stronger Arctic blocking The window is after next weekend if anything is going to happen of consequence 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted Sunday at 05:29 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:29 PM 1 hour ago, Yanksfan said: In an alternate universe I would have loved to see March 2001 having lived up to its full potential. I’ll never forget the forecast write up from the NWS a few days before the big bust occurred. Downright ominous. Never saw a flake; just some light sleet. And that's when I learned that for my area, never expect a big one in March. Hasn't happened in my liftetime; however, you can get decent storms of 6-10 inches. Which is about the most this old guy can handle anyway. My friend just drove out to MI; there was a lot of snow cover through OH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 05:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:32 PM 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: Never saw a flake; just some light sleet. And that's when I learned that for my area, never expect a big one in March. Hasn't happened in my liftetime; however, you can get decent storms of 6-10 inches. Which is about the most this old guy can handle anyway. My friend just drove out to MI; there was a lot of snow cover through OH. OH did very well last month with the flow around the block and persistent systems tracking south of them 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted Sunday at 05:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:32 PM 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Hopefully this happens or @snowman19is going to have material for years to come haha I don't put much stock in this kind of stuff, but if its going to happen, Feb is the time for it, generally speaking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 05:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:32 PM 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: GEFS with much stronger Arctic blocking The window is after next weekend if anything is going to happen of consequence Crazy epo on the gefs which is further east this run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted Sunday at 05:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:34 PM 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Strat and mjo Cold phases should give us a below avg 2nd half of the month. I’m just worried about suppression if that happens Well my sump pump pipe has still not thawed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 05:35 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:35 PM 12z euro about .5 to a inch of slop Wednesday night before rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Sunday at 05:35 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:35 PM Off to the races...rest up..buckle up..cancel the 3 ring circus 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted Sunday at 05:37 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:37 PM 21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Don, are the Euro HIRES and EPS nao projections accurate though, they have the NAO around -2 to even -3 (EPS) by the 15th also (between the 11th and the 17th)..... the Euro AI drops it down even lower than that all the way down to -5. I only have vendor information. The ECMWF does not post teleconnection charts, so I can't verify whether a similar issue exists. The AI number is all but certain to be wrong. The record low value for the NAO is -3.254. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted Sunday at 05:37 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:37 PM The earliest chance of siggy snow is LR per usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 05:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:40 PM Good front end thump Saturday night on the euro. Not surprised because the ensembles have been hinting at that recently 3-5 inches for the metro 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 05:44 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:44 PM This is going to be a very snowy euro run. Another system setting up next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 05:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:48 PM 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: This is going to be a very snowy euro run. Another system setting up next week 2-12 moderate hit 4-8 area wide 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 05:50 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:50 PM All three systems fwiw pretty to look at 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Sunday at 05:50 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:50 PM 5 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: The earliest chance of siggy snow is LR per usual. We're seeing the usual trend north on the Wed event since it's a SWFE and no resistance to the north. Super Bowl weekend storm looks maybe slightly better but again a SWFE, no blocking to the north to force a southern track so it once again favors New England. Some cold air to start on the weekend event but without an overrunning high N of us it gets quickly scoured out, and there might not be much precip out ahead of the storm in the cold preceding air. The high is centered east of us which drives in southerly winds. I'm not big on either of these two upcoming events as you can tell, at least I-84 south. Maybe if this blocking mid-month really happens and we get some amplification to prevent everything getting crushed south like in Jan something can work. Until then zzzzzzz and carry the umbrella. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 05:53 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:53 PM 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: We're seeing the usual trend north on the Wed event since it's a SWFE and no resistance to the north. Super Bowl weekend storm looks maybe slightly better but again a SWFE, no blocking to the north to force a southern track so it once again favors New England. Some cold air to start on the weekend event but without an overrunning high N of us it gets quickly scoured out, and there might not be much precip out ahead of the storm in the cold preceding air. The high is centered east of us which drives in southerly winds. I'm not big on either of these two upcoming events as you can tell, at least I-84 south. Maybe if this blocking mid-month really happens and we get some amplification to prevent everything getting crushed south like in Jan something can work. Until then zzzzzzz and carry the umbrella. This is a depressing post considering the afternoon guidance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 05:54 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:54 PM Huge ridge bridge block on the op euro 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Sunday at 05:59 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:59 PM 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: All three systems fwiw pretty to look at still only out to 180 on Pivotal, lol..nice run though - lots of opportunities for good snows... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted Sunday at 06:00 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:00 PM Better late than never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 06:01 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:01 PM Just now, RU848789 said: still only out to 180 on Pivotal, lol..nice run though - lots of opportunities for good snows... Yup. Lots of potential. First front end thump chance will be Saturday night. Anything before that will just be slop/rain 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 06:01 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:01 PM Block is so much stronger than 06z on the gefs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Sunday at 06:06 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:06 PM 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Block is so much stronger than 06z on the gefs yup, looks like the EPS now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 06:18 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:18 PM Lots of support for Saturday night on the eps mean 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 06:21 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:21 PM 14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: yup, looks like the EPS now Yup, gefs completely caved to the euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Sunday at 06:23 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:23 PM 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Yup, gefs completely caved to the euro absolutely absurd lmao 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 06:26 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:26 PM 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: absolutely absurd lmao Hopefully it’s correct strat and mjo working In tandem 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Sunday at 06:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:27 PM Just now, Allsnow said: Hopefully it’s correct strat and mjo working In tandem yeah, the March 2018 comparisons are growing more and more legit. again, not quite as anomalous but the similarities are pretty glaring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 06:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:27 PM Just now, brooklynwx99 said: yeah, the March 2018 comparisons are growing more and more legit. again, not quite as anomalous but the similarities are pretty glaring 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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