February 2025

[Yanksfan]

57 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

AO is becoming favorable

NAO is slightly dropping

PNA looks to stay positive 

I want a damn KU event. We’re overdue. Make it happen!

[MJO812]

Just now, Yanksfan said:

I want a damn KU event. We’re overdue. Make it happen!

Changing my picture might do the trick. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Changing my picture might do the trick. 

Change it to a map of January 1996, our biggest la nina snowstorm ever.

 

[EastonSN+]

Putting aside late February where Don mentioned an RNA has less of a negative impact, tonight in the next couple weeks may show that an RNA does not automatically mean a torch and no snowfall. A shallow RNA can be extremely beneficial. Again we do not want a trough to Baja which can overpower the other teleconnections. 

Usual caveats apply with regards to boundary and latitude.

[EastonSN+]

This is the gefs which is slower to get to phase 8 hence the southeast ridge driven by the RNA. 

To me this is a good luck, as suppression would be taken off the table for the most part and the blocking would limit the southeast ridge. Also the fact that we have plenty of cold on our side of the globe is an advantage in changeover events. 

I for one like to track snowfall totals, therefore if we get a two to four event washed away by rain it still counts as two to four for the yearly snowfall. 

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This is the gefs which is slower to get to phase 8 hence the southeast ridge driven by the RNA. 

To me this is a good luck, as suppression would be taken off the table for the most part and the blocking would limit the southeast ridge. Also the fact that we have plenty of cold on our side of the globe is an advantage in changeover events. 

I for one like to track snowfall totals, therefore if we get a two to four event washed away by rain it still counts as two to four for the yearly snowfall. 

Bluewave posted the 00z gefs(nothing wrong in that) which was not as strong with the block as 06z was this morning 

[Yanksfan]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Change it to a map of January 1996, our biggest la nina snowstorm ever.

 

In an alternate universe I would have loved to see March 2001 having lived up to its full potential. I’ll never forget the forecast write up from the NWS a few days before the big bust occurred. Downright ominous.

[Allsnow]

Hopefully this happens or @snowman19is going to have material for years to come haha 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Bluewave posted the 00z gefs(nothing wrong in that) which was not as strong with the block as 06z was this morning 

It's a matter of timing as well as strength. The gefs has a slower progression than the eps, not a dramatically different progression. 

The 6z may be speeding up the progression as earlier frames does have a higher Southeast ridge.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Hopefully this happens or @snowman19is going to have material for years to come haha 

 

 

Rest up and buckle up should be retired forever!

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Rest up and buckle up should be retired forever!

100% just provide the facts and the projections and leave it up to the individuals as to whether they want to hype it up in their heads are not

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Rest up and buckle up should be retired forever!

Strat and mjo Cold phases should give us a below avg 2nd half of the month. I’m just worried about suppression if that happens 

[EastonSN+]

14 minutes ago, frd said:

BAMM upcoming analogs based on the forecasted pattern

The upcoming pattern lines up rather nicely with years like 93,14 and 2021. The BIG wildcard could be the -NAO that might rival years like 2010 etc. There really isn't a great match overall for the upcoming -EPO/-PNA/-NAO/-AO mid Feb pattern. These look good for now.

Where did it snow in these years? Some heavy hitters in there.

 

 

The all model NAO forecast is remarkable. There will without a doubt be some big eastern US snow risks.

 

 

From the Middle Atlantic forum. This is a good example of not hyping, but rather stating facts and keeping expectations in check by stating looks good for now.

@Allsnow conscious that you posted this earlier as well.

[Dark Star]

26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Change it to a map of January 1996, our biggest la nina snowstorm ever.

 

epic

[EastonSN+]

30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Change it to a map of January 1996, our biggest la nina snowstorm ever.

 

That's mine and unfortunately hasn't been too helpful lately LOL.

[EastonSN+]

[MANDA]

59 minutes ago, Yanksfan said:

I want a damn KU event. We’re overdue. Make it happen!

KU or BUST in my opinion.  Bring it or get me to Spring.  Don't need or want these little nuisance events.  Beyond annoying at this point mostly because they are just another excuse to do another major salt dump.

 

And I will add that no matter how "favorable" this upcoming patter looks to some it is not even close to anything that would yield a KU event.  Like I said yesterday I know some locations in this sub forum are snow starved and will take anything and I wish you all well, I really do but I can do without the little events.

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

FWIW, the historic cold outbreak and southern snow occurred between phases 1 and 2. Phase one looks very familiar where the Northeast had above average temps while the southeast had below (followed by phase two where we were all in the freezer).

[SnoSki14]

28 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Start and mjo Cold phases should give us a below avg 2nd half of the month. I’m just worried about suppression if that happens 

Oh it will don't worry. Zero expectations this month.

GFS OP looking less favorable already too

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Oh it will don't worry. Zero expectations this month.

GFS OP looking less favorable already too

LOL

[EastonSN+]

The GFS app is starting to show the changing pattern well. 

Positive snow depth change below (not kutchera). This is JUST through the 11th.

[winterwx21]

CMC looks good for next weekend's potential storm, but of course we're talking a week away. First we have to figure out what's gonna happen Wednesday.

I don't care if they are front end type of storms ... I'm just glad we have interesting times ahead with the potential of getting a decent amount of snow in February. It beats very cold and dry. 

[Allsnow]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

CMC looks good for next weekend's potential storm, but of course we're talking a week away. First we have to figure out what's gonna happen Wednesday.

I don't care if they are front end type of storms ... I'm just glad we have interesting times ahead with the potential of getting a decent amount of snow in February. It beats very cold and dry. 

Each system is going to be hard to figure out the rain/snow line more then 1-2 days out. Will depend on the sw strength etc until the block gets established 

[SnoSki14]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

LOL

CMC on the other hand is looking better. We'll see which way the Euro trends. 

[donsutherland1]

46 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

From the Middle Atlantic forum. This is a good example of not hyping, but rather stating facts and keeping expectations in check by stating looks good for now.

@Allsnow conscious that you posted this earlier as well.

The NAO chart is suspect.

Here's the GEFS forecast from NCEP:

On the official site, not a single member of the GEFS forecasts an NAO value near -2.000 by February 15.

Also, for February 2010, the NAO was at or below -1.000 on 14/28 (50%) days and < 0 on all 28 days. That is not going to be the case this February. The NAO's preliminary values for February 1 and 2 are +1.269 and +1.535. A February 2010 NAO scenario is not on the table.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

The NAO chart is suspect.

Here's the GEFS forecast from NCEP:

On the official site, not a single member of the GEFS forecasts an NAO value near -2.000 by February 15.

Also, for February 2010, the NAO was at or below -1.000 on 14/28 (50%) days and < 0 on all 28 days. That is not going to be the case this February. The NAO's preliminary values for February 1 and 2 are +1.269 and +1.535. A February 2010 NAO scenario is not on the table.

Thanks Don this is an interesting discrepancy. Of course 2010 is an extreme example, which we would probably want to avoid in this case as I would favor the Middle Atlantic more than our area.

[jm1220]

12z GFS would just be a gut punch. But thing is it's totally feasible here. And it's that kind of winter.

[EastonSN+]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

12z GFS would just be a gut punch. But thing is it's totally feasible here. And it's that kind of winter.

Yeah it is kind of funny though I've seen worse.

[NEG NAO]

13 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

12z GFS would just be a gut punch. But thing is it's totally feasible here. And it's that kind of winter.

12Z GFS highly suspect - unless the other models show the same type of sudden changes from their previous 6 -12 hours solutions......I am sure they are investigating if faulty or missing data messed up the run - and if 0Z goes back to its previous solutions we know it did......

[Stormlover74]

28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

CMC on the other hand is looking better. We'll see which way the Euro trends. 

It probably won't show anything. It's been so slow to budge. Then again it hasn't really been wrong either