February 2025

[LoboLeader1]

 Currently 8 here in western MA, 16 back home in HPN.

[MJO812]

[jm1220]

5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

EPS snow mean now 11 inches for NYC 

 

the highest it has been all season 

If we can keep some kind of SE ridge and develop the block we may be in business. If we lose one we risk either suppression or the gradient being north of us. We really need both for this to work. As others point out, around Super Bowl timeframe is our prime period for bigger snowstorms. 

[MJO812]

AO is becoming favorable

NAO is slightly dropping

PNA looks to stay positive 

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

AO is becoming favorable

NAO is slightly dropping

PNA looks to stay positive 

This is a big and welcome change with the AO.

[SACRUS]

 

23 / 8 off a low of 9.  High clouds northern area east bound with some incoming clouds along the Jersey shore west bound.  Interesting look.  Bi polar pattern upcoming waxing and waning between the stronger cold to our north and the warmer (spring like) air to our south bordering near normal to slightly below.  Warmest days 2/6 with with stronger cold saturday 2/8.  We'll see how much of the 1 to 1.5 inches of liquid over the next week can fall in the frozen capacity.

 

[bluewave]

53 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

All the ensembles suite have a favorable pattern coming up .

You want the gradient to drop to our south. Otherwise it’s just a bunch of front end thumps changing to rain and 40s. The EPS had a better look beyond 10 days than the GEFS and GEPS. At least a ridge bridge like over the top  the EPS is advertising beyond 10 days could introduce a BM track potential for maybe around 5 days. But the whole mid-February pattern will come down to the EPS scoring a win before the pattern begins relaxing later in the month. 

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If we can keep some kind of SE ridge and develop the block we may be in business. If we lose one we risk either suppression or the gradient being north of us. We really need both for this to work. As others point out, around Super Bowl timeframe is our prime period for bigger snowstorms. 

Yeah I'd like someone to run some numbers and point out what our best 15 day period is for double digit (10"+) snowstorms, but I think it would be approximately from Feb 5 - Feb 20.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You want the gradient to drop to our south. Otherwise it’s just a bunch of front end thumps changing to rain and 40s. The EPS had a better look beyond 10 days than the GEFS and GEPS. At least a ridge bridge like over the top  the EPS is advertising beyond 10 days could introduce a BM track potential for maybe around 5 days. But the whole mid-February pattern will come down to the EPS scoring a win before the pattern begins relaxing later in the month. 

Around what time do you think the pattern begins to relax-- February 25th?

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

 

EWR: 62 (1973)
NYC: 59 (1988)
LGA: 59 (1988)
JFK: 56 (1973)


Lows:

EWR: -2 (1961)
NYC: -3 (1881)
LGA: -1 (1961)
JFK: -1 (1961)

Historical: 

 

1870: Congressman Halbert Paine, who represented Wisconsin's Second District, introduced a joint resolution in the House of Representatives “to authorize the Secretary of War to provide for taking meteorological observations at the military stations and other points in the interior of the continent, and for giving notice on the Northern Lakes and seaboard of the approach and force of storms.” The House adopted the resolution by unanimous consent and, two days later, it passed the Senate. Five days later, on Feb. 9, President Ulysses S. Grant signed the joint resolution into law, officially creating the nation's first weather service. 

 

1898: The naming of hurricanes after women was always the center of controversy. In the Southern Hemisphere near Australia, tropical cyclones were once called Willy-Willies. An Australian Meteorologist, Clement Wragge, is credited for giving girls names to tropical cyclones by the end of the 19th Century. On this date, Wragge's weather journal showed a Willy Willy named "Eline."

1952 - The only tropical storm of record to hit the U.S. in February moved out of the Gulf of Mexico and across southern Florida. It produced 60 mph winds, and two to four inches of rain. (2nd-3rd) (The Weather Channel)

 

1952: An area of low pressure moved out of the Gulf of Mexico and across southern Florida during the evening and late-night hours on February 2, 1952. It produced 60 mph winds and two to four inches of rain on February 2 and 3. The low pressure remains the only tropical storm to impact the United States in February. 

1956 - A record snowstorm in New Mexico and west Texas began on Ground Hog's Day. The storm produced 15 inches of snow at Roswell NM, and up to 33 inches in the Texas Panhandle. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A fast moving arctic front brought snow and high winds to the north central U.S. Winds gusted to 69 mph at Brookings SD. Big Falls MN reported nine inches of snow. Record warmth was reported just ahead of the front. Burlington IA reported a record high of 59 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A dying low pressure system over southern California deluged the San Diego coastal mountains with more than four inches of rain causing half a million dollars damage. Arctic air invading the north central U.S. sent the mercury plunging to 38 degrees below zero at Park Rapids MN. Raleigh NC reported a record high of 75 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Bitter cold air covered much of the central U.S. Butte MT reported a wind chill reading of 91 degrees below zero, Salt Lake City UT was blanketed with 11.9 inches of snow in 24 hours, and winds around Reno NV gusted to 80 mph. Unseasonably warm weather continued in the southeastern U.S. Twenty-eight cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Wilmington NC with a reading of 80 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather in the Lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon and evening hours. One person was injured in a tornado near Reidheimer LA. Thunderstorms northeast of Brandon MS produced hail three inches in diameter along with high winds which downed or snapped off one hundred trees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1996 - An Arctic outbreak that lasted from late January through early February produced nearly 400 hundred record lows, 15 all-time low readings, and over 50 new record lows. Four states recorded their all-time record low temperatures, including Tower, Minnesota, on this date with a reading of 60 degrees below zero, canceling Tower's annual Icebox Days festival because it is too cold. Locations that reported their all-time record low or tied included: Cresco, IA: -36°, Osage, IA: -34°, Charles City, IA tied their record low with -32° and Lancaster, WI tied their all-time record low with -31°. International Falls, MN, and Glasgow, MT set records for February with -45° and -38°, respectively. The temperature at Embarrass, MN, plummeted to -53°. Rochester, MN, dipped to -34° for its coldest temperature in 45 years. Green Bay, WI only reached -16° for the high temperature for the day, their coldest

 

2006 - New Orleans is struck by two tornadoes, collapsing at least one previously damaged house and battering Louis Armstrong International Airport. The Weather Doctor

2008 - Hilo, HI, is deluged by 10.82 inches of rain in a period of 24 hours, breaking the previous record set in 1969 by 3.5 inches. The Weather Doctor

2011 - A high temperature of 44°F registered at Sky Harbor Airport in Phoenix, AZ, sets an all-time February record for the coldest high temperature for the city. The Weather Doctor

[TriPol]

I'm sick of these cold shots without any snow.

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

AO is becoming favorable

NAO is slightly dropping

PNA looks to stay positive 

Looks like primetime begins on or after February 7th and the AO bottoms out around the 15th.  If we extend this outward it should become positive again by the 23rd, so we should score something by or before then.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

Highs:

 

EWR: 62 (1973)
NYC: 59 (1988)
LGA: 59 (1988)
JFK: 56 (1973)


Lows:

EWR: -2 (1961)
NYC: -3 (1881)
LGA: -1 (1961)
JFK: -1 (1961)

Historical: 

 

1870: Congressman Halbert Paine, who represented Wisconsin's Second District, introduced a joint resolution in the House of Representatives “to authorize the Secretary of War to provide for taking meteorological observations at the military stations and other points in the interior of the continent, and for giving notice on the Northern Lakes and seaboard of the approach and force of storms.” The House adopted the resolution by unanimous consent and, two days later, it passed the Senate. Five days later, on Feb. 9, President Ulysses S. Grant signed the joint resolution into law, officially creating the nation's first weather service. 

 

1898: The naming of hurricanes after women was always the center of controversy. In the Southern Hemisphere near Australia, tropical cyclones were once called Willy-Willies. An Australian Meteorologist, Clement Wragge, is credited for giving girls names to tropical cyclones by the end of the 19th Century. On this date, Wragge's weather journal showed a Willy Willy named "Eline."

1952 - The only tropical storm of record to hit the U.S. in February moved out of the Gulf of Mexico and across southern Florida. It produced 60 mph winds, and two to four inches of rain. (2nd-3rd) (The Weather Channel)

 

1952: An area of low pressure moved out of the Gulf of Mexico and across southern Florida during the evening and late-night hours on February 2, 1952. It produced 60 mph winds and two to four inches of rain on February 2 and 3. The low pressure remains the only tropical storm to impact the United States in February. 

1956 - A record snowstorm in New Mexico and west Texas began on Ground Hog's Day. The storm produced 15 inches of snow at Roswell NM, and up to 33 inches in the Texas Panhandle. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A fast moving arctic front brought snow and high winds to the north central U.S. Winds gusted to 69 mph at Brookings SD. Big Falls MN reported nine inches of snow. Record warmth was reported just ahead of the front. Burlington IA reported a record high of 59 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A dying low pressure system over southern California deluged the San Diego coastal mountains with more than four inches of rain causing half a million dollars damage. Arctic air invading the north central U.S. sent the mercury plunging to 38 degrees below zero at Park Rapids MN. Raleigh NC reported a record high of 75 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Bitter cold air covered much of the central U.S. Butte MT reported a wind chill reading of 91 degrees below zero, Salt Lake City UT was blanketed with 11.9 inches of snow in 24 hours, and winds around Reno NV gusted to 80 mph. Unseasonably warm weather continued in the southeastern U.S. Twenty-eight cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Wilmington NC with a reading of 80 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather in the Lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon and evening hours. One person was injured in a tornado near Reidheimer LA. Thunderstorms northeast of Brandon MS produced hail three inches in diameter along with high winds which downed or snapped off one hundred trees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1996 - An Arctic outbreak that lasted from late January through early February produced nearly 400 hundred record lows, 15 all-time low readings, and over 50 new record lows. Four states recorded their all-time record low temperatures, including Tower, Minnesota, on this date with a reading of 60 degrees below zero, canceling Tower's annual Icebox Days festival because it is too cold. Locations that reported their all-time record low or tied included: Cresco, IA: -36°, Osage, IA: -34°, Charles City, IA tied their record low with -32° and Lancaster, WI tied their all-time record low with -31°. International Falls, MN, and Glasgow, MT set records for February with -45° and -38°, respectively. The temperature at Embarrass, MN, plummeted to -53°. Rochester, MN, dipped to -34° for its coldest temperature in 45 years. Green Bay, WI only reached -16° for the high temperature for the day, their coldest

 

2006 - New Orleans is struck by two tornadoes, collapsing at least one previously damaged house and battering Louis Armstrong International Airport. The Weather Doctor

2008 - Hilo, HI, is deluged by 10.82 inches of rain in a period of 24 hours, breaking the previous record set in 1969 by 3.5 inches. The Weather Doctor

2011 - A high temperature of 44°F registered at Sky Harbor Airport in Phoenix, AZ, sets an all-time February record for the coldest high temperature for the city. The Weather Doctor

Lows:

EWR: -2 (1961)
NYC: -3 (1881)
LGA: -1 (1961)
JFK: -1 (1961)

 

Tony was this great arctic outbreak in February 1961 just before the HECS that dumped 25.1" of snow at JFK? Their biggest snowstorm until PD2 (2003)!

 

[North and West]

.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, North and West said:

.

Here's to 1961 the coldest Groundhogs Day of all time, soon to be followed by a 2 foot blizzard!!

 

[Allsnow]

27 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If we can keep some kind of SE ridge and develop the block we may be in business. If we lose one we risk either suppression or the gradient being north of us. We really need both for this to work. As others point out, around Super Bowl timeframe is our prime period for bigger snowstorms. 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Daylight Feb 2

10H:10M

Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 5:15PM

Gaining 2M:15S today

Gained roughly 55 minutes of daylight since the Dec 21st lull
Sunrise : is 16 minutes earlier than the 7:20 AM (latest Jan 1 - 7) or 24 minutes earlier than the 7:28 (Nov 2 DST)
Sunset is 47 minutes later than the 4:28 (earliest Dec 2 - 12)

 

Roughly equivalent to November 7th

 

 

[North and West]

 

Always a good reminder that anyone who thinks they know exactly what is going to happen - whether it’s weather, business, demographics, sports, or more - they’re playing a type of confidence game. They’re hoping you don’t know that they don’t know as much they do.

In the past week, who saw the DeepSeek and Luka Doncic news coming? No one.

Always take all of these proclamations with several grains of salt.


.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

so a stratospheric polar vortex disruption is also *canonical* la nina?

 

[North and West]

 
Daylight Feb 2
10H:10M
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 5:15PM
 
Gained roughly 55 minutes of daylight since the Dec 21st lull
Sunrise : is 16 minutes earlier than the 7:20 AM (latest Jan 1 - 7) or 24 minutes earlier than the 7:28 (Nov 2 DST)
Sunset is 47 minutes later than the 4:28 (earliest Dec 2 - 12)
 
Roughly equivalent to November 7th

.

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

 

It’s kind of weird how Dr. Amy Butler, Judah Cohen and Jason Furtado are not hyping this up at all. Haven’t heard anything about HM getting on board for a big SSWE either. If this was imminent, you’d think one of them would be talking about it right now. We’ll see I guess 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, North and West said:

Always a good reminder that anyone who thinks they know exactly what is going to happen - whether it’s weather, business, demographics, sports, or more - they’re playing a type of confidence game. They’re hoping you don’t know that they don’t know as much they do.

In the past week, who saw the DeepSeek and Luka Doncic news coming? No one.

Always take all of these proclamations with several grains of salt.


.

the wisest people are those who realize that the more they learn, the more there is yet left to learn.

 

[SACRUS]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

 

 

Tony was this great arctic outbreak in February 1961 just before the HECS that dumped 25.1" of snow at JFK? Their biggest snowstorm until PD2 (2003)!

 

 

yes it was snow fell early Feb 3  and when done the next day 17.4 inches at NYC.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

yes it was snow fell early Feb 3  and when done the next day 17.4 inches at NYC.

Thanks, Tony, back then we used to have subzero arctic shots followed quickly by HECS!

[MJO812]

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You want the gradient to drop to our south. Otherwise it’s just a bunch of front end thumps changing to rain and 40s. The EPS had a better look beyond 10 days than the GEFS and GEPS. At least a ridge bridge like over the top  the EPS is advertising beyond 10 days could introduce a BM track potential for maybe around 5 days. But the whole mid-February pattern will come down to the EPS scoring a win before the pattern begins relaxing later in the month. 

If the pattern relaxes later in the month. Too far out to say. All depends on how fast the MJO goes through 8.

[Allsnow]

 

[North and West]

the wisest people are those who realize that the more they learn, the more there is yet left to learn.
 

.

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Gefs and eps all developed the nao with ridge bridge 

 

@snowman19

Saw that. Let’s see if it holds. As far as this week and next weekend, I think those end up mostly New England events. I think the pattern is not favorable for snowstorms here during that time frame. Not sure about the following week though 

[EastonSN+]

The wave looks a little stronger today as it heads toward phase eight. The eps at the bottom is showing signs of blocking in the trough migrating East. 

 

[EastonSN+]

48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You want the gradient to drop to our south. Otherwise it’s just a bunch of front end thumps changing to rain and 40s. The EPS had a better look beyond 10 days than the GEFS and GEPS. At least a ridge bridge like over the top  the EPS is advertising beyond 10 days could introduce a BM track potential for maybe around 5 days. But the whole mid-February pattern will come down to the EPS scoring a win before the pattern begins relaxing later in the month. 

If I'm not mistaken your referencing the 5-day window for an opportunity for a benchmark track/heavy snowfall correct? 

With regards to temperatures and light events like tonight, our window should extend another 10 days given that we still need to traverse through phases one and two, which I believe each phase has a muted Southeast ridge due to ridging out west.