nycwinter Posted Sunday at 05:54 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:54 AM 37 minutes ago, RU848789 said: As I just said elsewhere, who hacked the GFS? Fess up, lol... at least fantasy storms showing up on models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Sunday at 06:05 AM Share Posted Sunday at 06:05 AM 53 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Would be nice if the GFS had a clue. Right now I would go with the Euro solution as the most reasonable which is half as of 12Z of the GFS solution . GFS the last few runs has about 2 ft. plus for the region on avg through 384 hours while the Euro is about half that.........BUT this is only potential and we could end up with much less especially the way this winter has played out thus far...... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Sunday at 06:21 AM Share Posted Sunday at 06:21 AM 0Z Euro is getting back to reality IMO Models: ECMWF — Pivotal Weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 09:09 AM Share Posted Sunday at 09:09 AM EPS snow mean now 11 inches for NYC the highest it has been all season 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 09:13 AM Share Posted Sunday at 09:13 AM Gefs and eps all developed the nao with ridge bridge @snowman19 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Sunday at 09:24 AM Share Posted Sunday at 09:24 AM 11 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Gefs and eps all developed the nao with ridge bridge @snowman19 best EPS run i've seen since Feb 2021. ridiculous mean 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted Sunday at 09:35 AM Share Posted Sunday at 09:35 AM 27 minutes ago, Allsnow said: EPS snow mean now 11 inches for NYC the highest it has been all season Yeah it actually doesn't look cold/dry once blocking gets going. It would still be nice to score something before mid Feb though 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 10:02 AM Share Posted Sunday at 10:02 AM 28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yeah it actually doesn't look cold/dry once blocking gets going. It would still be nice to score something before mid Feb though It has 2-4 for Saturday into Sunday 11th to 12th the mean is very high for 95 lots of storms 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 11:11 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:11 AM 5 hours ago, NEG NAO said: Right now I would go with the Euro solution as the most reasonable which is half as of 12Z of the GFS solution . GFS the last few runs has about 2 ft. plus for the region on avg through 384 hours while the Euro is about half that.........BUT this is only potential and we could end up with much less especially the way this winter has played out thus far...... that the GFS is that high is GREAT even if it's not right, because how far off can it be? Even 1/3 of that amount would be just fine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 11:12 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:12 AM 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Gefs and eps all developed the nao with ridge bridge @snowman19 This is the main reason to be somewhat excited.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 11:13 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:13 AM 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: It has 2-4 for Saturday into Sunday 11th to 12th the mean is very high for 95 lots of storms and that is our classic period for big snowstorms. For NYC it's between February 5-20 and that is exactly when this pattern gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pellice Posted Sunday at 11:34 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:34 AM 7 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: My recollection whoever ran the server did not pay the bill and it just died for like 1-2 weeks then all of a sudden a notice came that the new site was coming. My recollection is that the guy who "owned" the site got mad about something and took it down suddenly. I remember pleas made to him to let the writers to offload it to someone else or at least download their own data and maps, and one who was friendly with the owner volunteered to approach him personally to beg for a reprieve, which I believe was granted. He would not permit the site itself to change hands. Again if I remember correctly, he left the site up long enough for a new site to be set up and announced. You didn't transfer, you had to sign up for the new site. *Some* of Eastern is still available on the Wayback machine, although I don't entirely understand how to navigate that site. The topmost referenced site under it led to an Indonesian wagering site. But somewhere I was able to pull up some old postings. Plus ça change ... capes Apr 23 2006, 10:03 PM Received a grand total of 3 inches for the event, and with tonights pulsing storms maybe will add a bit more. We desperately needed the rain, I just wish it did not come in a deluge. Not good for the grass seed I planted last week. Hard to believe there are some in here whining about a bust just because the QPF did not come out perfect. Some need to quit model hugging and learn not to take the maps literally. Both the GFS and NAM were pretty good at depicting the slow progression east of the closed low and the rich feed of moisture up the coast. BTW, I thought Mount Holly did an excellent job forecasting this event. Of course, they usually do. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted Sunday at 11:53 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:53 AM No new threads for me this morning...let's finish off tonight inn the Feb 2 thread. Feb 5-6, looks mainly interior but its possible we'll see 1/2-1" snow sleet CP-LI but want to be more certain. Feb 8-9 and Feb 11-14 could end up decent here but long ways to go before threading. You have the models. Attached the EPS chance of 0.10 water equiv glaze. This is impressive for this Wed-Thu... and also the chances for similar next weekend via the NWS ensemble. EPS for D7 is only about 30-40% but still impressive. Could be more snow-sleet with the one next weekend? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted Sunday at 11:57 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:57 AM Was not expecting this cold this am. 11 degrees in Mahwah, nj 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted Sunday at 12:19 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:19 PM You've seen the ensembles through the 16th... 2.5-3.5". That is good. Here's the chance of more than 2" as per the 50 member NAEFS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted Sunday at 12:23 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:23 PM Hopefully, the EPS can score a win here in mid-February. The GEFS and GEPS aren’t as strong with the blocking. But the EPS verbatim is a very nice look. My guess is that if the EPS is correct we’ll probably get a 5 day window before the pattern relaxes later in February. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 12:39 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:39 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 12:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:40 PM 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: Hopefully, the EPS can score a win here in mid-February. The GEFS and GEPS aren’t as strong with the blocking. But the EPS verbatim is a very nice look. My guess is that if the EPS is correct we’ll probably get a 5 day window before the pattern relaxes later in February. So this wont be a Feb 10 - 25 kind of 15 day window, Chris? What are you looking at for the peak of the pattern, from Feb 15-20? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 12:43 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:43 PM 45 minutes ago, steve392 said: Was not expecting this cold this am. 11 degrees in Mahwah, nj a gorgeous pink/purple sunrise here and 17 degrees !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted Sunday at 12:47 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:47 PM it can snow any day besides the 9th, im traveling to AC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted Sunday at 12:47 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:47 PM 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: a gorgeous pink/purple sunrise here and 17 degrees !! Just had the skies lighting up when i got in. Was nice looking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted Sunday at 12:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:48 PM 9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: So this wont be a Feb 10 - 25 kind of 15 day window, Chris? What are you looking at for the peak of the pattern, from Feb 15-20? The 5 day window would be the amount of time we could get the gradient to our south for more than just overrunning mixed precipitation events. You want the gradient to our south for a BM track. So when the pattern begins to relax we get a coastal development that takes a BM track. No guarantees yet since the GEFS and GEPS are weaker with the blocking. So we just have to let this play out and see if the Euro score a win with the much stronger blocking. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted Sunday at 12:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:56 PM 12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: a gorgeous pink/purple sunrise here and 17 degrees !! My sunrise was more of an amber, like my teeth... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted Sunday at 01:06 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:06 PM The week ahead: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted Sunday at 01:14 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:14 PM Looks like a lot of slop before a potentially more favorable snow window in mid Feb. Euro with the passage into MJO 8 shows why it's better with the blocking 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Sunday at 01:17 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:17 PM 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Looks like a lot of slop before a potentially more favorable snow window in mid Feb. Agreed plus Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow this morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 01:17 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:17 PM 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Looks like a lot of slop before a potentially more favorable snow window in mid Feb. agreed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Sunday at 01:35 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:35 PM 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Hopefully, the EPS can score a win here in mid-February. The GEFS and GEPS aren’t as strong with the blocking. But the EPS verbatim is a very nice look. My guess is that if the EPS is correct we’ll probably get a 5 day window before the pattern relaxes later in February. All the ensembles suite have a favorable pattern coming up . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted Sunday at 01:54 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:54 PM 1 hour ago, steve392 said: Was not expecting this cold this am. 11 degrees in Mahwah, nj 9f here this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted Sunday at 01:57 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:57 PM 15 in Syosset & 16 in Muttontown this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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