February 2025

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

every western ridge rolled over because of the northern stream and we couldn't get the two southern storms to turn the corner. that's not bad luck

Its never ever happened before?

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Its never ever happened before?

it has happened before several times

see December 1989 as one infamous example that was even more extreme.

 

[donsutherland1]

The first week of February will feature a temperature roller-coaster. February will get off to a relatively brisk start. However, moderation will follow after the weekend, but another brief cold shot is likely around mid-week before temperatures moderate yet again. Overall, the first week of February will likely wind up near or somewhat above normal in the New York City area.

There remains considerable uncertainty about the second half of the month. The ECMWF weeklies have again swung back to near normal temperatures after shifting to a warmer than normal outlook in recent days. There is greater confidence with precipitation coming out near or somewhat above normal.

The AO is now positive and is expected to remain predominantly positive through at least the first week of February. Since 1950, just 2 of 19 (11%) of storms with an AO of +2.000 or above during January 15-February 15 saw 6" or more of snow in New York City. In addition, the NAO is likely to remain at +1.000 or above through the first two weeks of February. Since 1950, just 1 of 18 (6%) of storms with an NAO of +0.900 or above saw 6" or more snow in New York City. That storm occurred with an AO of -1.769.  As a result, prospects for a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City area will likely be limited through the first 10-14 days of February. The low probability of a 6" or above snowstorm does not mean that there cannot be snowfall or there won't be snowfall. Smaller events are possible.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around January 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was +25.21 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.965 today.

 

[MJO812]

Gfs will still be much flatter than Euro for midweek.

[eduggs]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

You do not believe the mjo heading into phase 8 1 and 2 as well as the AO product to go negative on the ensembles is going to come to fruition? Or are you saying that early spring will follow that period?

1. The MJO often does not progress as modeled 3 weeks out.

2. The connection between MJO phase and local snowfall is relatively weak.

3. Over the past 10 years, the end of February tends to get spring like regardless of MJO phase.

[MJO812]

Just now, eduggs said:

1. The MJO often does not progress as modeled 3 weeks out.

2. The connection between MJO phase and local snowfall is relatively weak.

3. Over the past 10 years, the end of February tends to get spring like regardless of MJO phase.

Uh ? March has been more snowier than December for a while.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

1. The MJO often does not progress as modeled 3 weeks out.

2. The connection between MJO phase and local snowfall is relatively weak.

3. Over the past 10 years, the end of February tends to get spring like regardless of MJO phase.

This can't be a real post. 

[MJO812]

Where is the warmth on the models? It just dissapeared

[MJO812]

Superbowl Sunday has a nice front end for NYC . Great hit for the interior. 

[anthonymm]

4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Take that to the bank 

I have zero expectations rest of winter. Any snow would be a pleasant surprise imo

Rain’s almost always a lock. Specially when something when its the euro showing it. Idk why the weenies here are getting excited this pattern screams new england and interior. Also you dont know whats gonna happen after the 10th we cant forecast for shit past 10 days. Onto spring.

[MJO812]

[anthonymm]

4 hours ago, Allsnow said:

The ao was for negative for two months and we got nothing 

Right we’re just not favored to get snow currently. Have you not noticed that it hasnt snowed heavily in three years ? Do you think this is a coincidence? The city is taking a break from snow. 

[MJO812]

The TPV is modeled to be in East Canada 
That's why the MJO can't torch in 4 5 6.

[anthonymm]

3 hours ago, Rjay said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bruh.

And you prob have like 20" total over the last 3 seasons.

If you have to say the words “pattern change” and keep looking 300+ hours out on ensembles, you arent going to do well snowfall wise. We still have learned it dosent like to snow in our region in the 2020s! 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, anthonymm said:

If you have to say the words “pattern change” and keep looking 300+ hours out on ensembles, you arent going to do well snowfall wise. We still have learned it dosent like to snow in our region in the 2020s! 

2021?

[wishcast_hater]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

2021?

Ant, you keep changing up that avatar, huh? I'm seeing alot of projections for TPV to stretch and possibly split in 2 which would bring back the cold after next week.  Hope that happens to shut up all the negative Nancies on this board. 

[MJO812]

Just now, wishcast_hater said:

Ant, you keep changing up that avatar, huh? I'm seeing alot of projections for TPV to stretch and possibly split in 2 which would bring back the cold after next week.  Hope that happens to shut up all the negative Nancies on this board. 

Try to bring us good luck lol

[anthonymm]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

2021?

Yea the one exceptional year. Delete it and its the lowest snowfall decade and nothing even comes close

[anthonymm]

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Oh look the GFS 200 hours out. That’s always gone well for us hasnt it.

[MJO812]

This guy joined Jan 10. Looks like a sock to me. Colin ?

[eduggs]

46 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Uh ? March has been more snowier than December for a while.

December hasn't been snowy either. But even the occasional times it has snowed in March, the sun comes out that afternoon or the next day and the temp spikes to 55F and everything melts. Spring.

[eduggs]

46 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This can't be a real post.

We are all very tired of LR anomaly charts. The lack of continuity at that range should convince you not to look at them.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

December hasn't been snowy either. But even the occasional times it has snowed in March, the sun comes out that afternoon or the next day and the temp spikes to 55F and everything melts. Spring.

That's the problem with March but it can snow and stick with the right pattern. 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

We are all very tired of LR anomaly charts. The lack of continuity at that range should convince you not to look at them.

Of course but all the models are starting to show the same thing. The cold is winning out this winter. It's just the lack of snow because the cold has been overpowering the ridge . For us. Coasties , we might have to risk snow to rain events for the near future. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That's the problem with March but it can snow and stick with the right pattern. 

It can snow AND stick in March? Whoa 

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, eduggs said:

December hasn't been snowy either. But even the occasional times it has snowed in March, the sun comes out that afternoon or the next day and the temp spikes to 55F and everything melts. Spring.

yeah no one really cares about snowcover in urban areas, it's a nuisance.  we just want to see snow falling from the sky.

forget March, you can get snow sticking during the day in April too

[North and West]

Yea the one exceptional year. Delete it and its the lowest snowfall decade and nothing even comes close

I disagree with that sentiment. That’s like the thought of “…We would have won the game except for the fastball that was clocked 450 feet into the second game.”

Well sure, you would have won, but you didn’t, because the fastball was clocked at the one point in the fifth inning during an otherwise well-pitched game.

It’s how averages work.


.

[anthonymm]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

This guy joined Jan 10. Looks like a sock to me. Colin ?

Not a sock account I discovered this forum a month ago. I promise I love snow just as much as the weenies here but I'm also a realist! Ive seen how dramatically snow has dropped off from 2021 and I really just dont think its our year yet. We have to get through this crap low snow decade.

[anthonymm]

36 minutes ago, North and West said:

I disagree with that sentiment. That’s like the thought of “…We would have won the game except for the fastball that was clocked 450 feet into the second game.”

Well sure, you would have won, but you didn’t, because the fastball was clocked at the one point in the fifth inning during an otherwise well-pitched game.

It’s how averages work.


.

Even if you count 2021 the 5 year average for central park is currently at all an time low. 

[wdrag]

Many opportunities this month, though I84 looks better for ice-snow but am monitoring for NYC-LI.  Sunday eve  snow-ice obs are a good fit for the Jan 31-Feb 2 thread, whatever there is. Models trending snowier CP with EPS near 1/2" CP.  I'm pretty sure much of Li will see snow, or a snow- ice-rain mix 6P-midnight and one model is starting snow showers midday Sunday. 

 

ALL 12z/1 ensembles have about 2.5" of qpf here next 16 days.   We'll see if that is overdone but at least its qpf.