February 2025

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, eduggs said:

EPS is not snowy outside of NNE. I would advise caution at this juncture unless you don't mind bitter disappointment. The 300mb jet is pretty far north over this period. We are only briefly and periodically tickling the cold.

Everything could break right. Overrunning often overperforms locally. We don't need high amplitude waves and they come every 2-3 days. But from memory at our latitude ZR to rain is more likely than snow or snow to IP. Still... I'll be begging for and dreaming of snow.

Agreed that the next two weeks are going to be a little tough for the general area. 

We should have a much better opportunity second half of February into March.

[eduggs]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Agreed that the next two weeks are going to be a little tough for the general area. 

We should have a much better opportunity second half of February into March.

LR is always a crap shoot regardless of how good guidance looks. I don't even like to look beyond 14 days. It almost always leads to a cycle of excitement and heartbreak or just outright depression.

[Allsnow]

11 minutes ago, eduggs said:

EPS is not snowy outside of NNE. I would advise caution at this juncture unless you don't mind bitter disappointment. The 300mb jet is pretty far north over this period. We are only briefly and periodically tickling the cold.

Everything could break right. Overrunning often overperforms locally. We don't need high amplitude waves and they come every 2-3 days. But from memory at our latitude ZR to rain is more likely than snow or snow to IP. Still... I'll be begging for and dreaming of snow.

The eps snow mean is 8 inches for nyc for the entire run 

 

how is that not snowy? 

[eduggs]

46 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

coastal areas don't get much ZR

probably wet snow or rain

 

I think that's a bit of a myth. Sure the immediate shoreline doesn't get a ton of ZR, but most of the coastal plane is susceptible. Particularly W, N, and NE suburbs of NYC.

[Allsnow]

 

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The eps snow mean is 8 inches for nyc for the entire run 

 

how is that not snowy? 

Almost no utility outside of 240 hrs. Snow mean in that range is 1-2" across the metro from south to north.

[MJO812]

21 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the pattern did occur. just benefited south of the Mason-Dixon line the most. it happens

Same people calling for warmth all winter is back in force this week calling for more warmth as the models show a change.

[SnoSki14]

The Euro/EPS is not the king it used to be though so there's that but not having it show much isn't good either 

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Almost no utility outside of 240 hrs. Snow mean in that range is 1-2" across the metro from south to north.

Stop. It’s 3-5 

[Allsnow]

Furthermore, the op was probably the most amped for Super Bowl Sunday then the rest of the members 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Furthermore, the op was probably the most amped for Super Bowl Sunday then the rest of the members 

Euro does have an over amplification bias so I do think it'll trend somewhat towards the other models

[NEG NAO]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

no snow at all would also be a surprise, that's the point

The Euro total snowfall is reasonable IMO as compared to the GFS 2 feet of frozen snow.sleet

[eduggs]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Stop. It’s 3-5 

 

You're right. 1-2" is snow depth mean at 240hr.

[forkyfork]

24 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Weather patterns will always change.  The latest one was a cold/dry result with lots of bad luck.  

every western ridge rolled over because of the northern stream and we couldn't get the two southern storms to turn the corner. that's not bad luck

[Allsnow]

12 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

every western ridge rolled over because of the northern stream and we couldn't get the two southern storms to turn the corner. that's not bad luck

The gulf coast getting 6-12 definitely has a degree of luck in it especially with how warm our winters have been recently 

[BxEngine]

40 minutes ago, Rjay said:

These posts go back years.  When metsfan talks about pattern changes hes talking about snow.   Idc what he says, we all know it.  Tbh this board wouldn't be the same if he didn't post on it but I have to rib him bc of how aggressive he gets when you don't believe "it's coming" lol.  

Of course. Hes been here 20 years and still is optimistic to a fault…mostly because he cant read a damn map (sorry metsfan lol). But some people here act like we deserve great patterns and avg 100” a year. “Omg 3”? wake me up when its showing a foot”. Jesus christ. As a whole, our sub avg roughly between 25-40” with higher amounts further northwest. That means most years we wont get that because coastal storms giving us big events arent happening. But if you dont want to talk about a few inches here and there, or the cold snap (relative, still warm as hell comparatively but at least the damn ponds froze), why even bother having an account here? Its really really odd behavior. The literal 180 of metsfan. 

[EastonSN+]

More specific details on the other thread, however, a light snow event will happen tomorrow night. 

[Rjay]

7 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Of course. Hes been here 20 years and still is optimistic to a fault…mostly because he cant read a damn map (sorry metsfan lol). But some people here act like we deserve great patterns and avg 100” a year. “Omg 3”? wake me up when its showing a foot”. Jesus christ. As a whole, our sub avg roughly between 25-40” with higher amounts further northwest. That means most years we wont get that because coastal storms giving us big events arent happening. But if you dont want to talk about a few inches here and there, or the cold snap (relative, still warm as hell comparatively but at least the damn ponds froze), why even bother having an account here? Its really really odd behavior. The literal 180 of metsfan. 

My point is pattern change talk = snow on this forum no matter what they say.  

[Rjay]

Also it's way too easy to get this thread to turn "HOT!" lol 

[NEG NAO]

8 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Of course. Hes been here 20 years and still is optimistic to a fault…mostly because he cant read a damn map (sorry metsfan lol). But some people here act like we deserve great patterns and avg 100” a year. “Omg 3”? wake me up when its showing a foot”. Jesus christ. As a whole, our sub avg roughly between 25-40” with higher amounts further northwest. That means most years we wont get that because coastal storms giving us big events arent happening. But if you dont want to talk about a few inches here and there, or the cold snap (relative, still warm as hell comparatively but at least the damn ponds froze), why even bother having an account here? Its really really odd behavior. The literal 180 of metsfan. 

This forum opened in November 2010 - a little over 14 years ago and wasn't the old forum called Eastern Weather ? Many of us were members there .Can't remember why that forum closed and this one was created - a history lesson please ?

[Allsnow]

@donsutherland1 weeklies are now cold for the end of the month 

[donsutherland1]

31 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@donsutherland1 weeklies are now cold for the end of the month 

Yes. They have gone back. Hopefully, that will be the outcome that verifies. 

[Monty]

35 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

This forum opened in November 2010 - a little over 14 years ago and wasn't the old forum called Eastern Weather ? Many of us were members there .Can't remember why that forum closed and this one was created - a history lesson please ?

Oh goodness there's been so many stops along the road.

AmericanWx

USAwx

33/rain

EasternUS

severeWx

Wright-Weather (the DT vs. meteotrade fights... I'd pay money to live through those again)

And I've only heard about some predecessor called vistawx maybe?

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

I think that's a bit of a myth. Sure the immediate shoreline doesn't get a ton of ZR, but most of the coastal plane is susceptible. Particularly W, N, and NE suburbs of NYC.

I think 3-5 inches of snow in February is way more likely than a 0.1 inch of ZR

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

I mean…he was more correct than some of the typical doomers around here. We just didnt get the snow. Not many predicted a colder than normal first half of winter lol

and like the NWS themselves said, there's been more snow this January than the last two Januarys combined.

People just need to reassess what they consider snowy, 3 inches of snow in a month is actually pretty good now.

 

[LibertyBell]

59 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The gulf coast getting 6-12 definitely has a degree of luck in it especially with how warm our winters have been recently 

the waters of the gulf were excessively warm thats why they got those extreme snowfall totals

 

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, Monty said:

Oh goodness there's been so many stops along the road.

AmericanWx

USAwx

33/rain

EasternUS

severeWx

Wright-Weather (the DT vs. meteotrade fights... I'd pay money to live through those again)

And I've only heard about some predecessor called vistawx maybe?

I'm on about several forums and several Facebook pages.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Weather patterns will always change.  The latest one was a cold/dry result with lots of bad luck.  

there's no such thing as luck bro, this has happened before and will happen again, it's because of the fast pacific jet and we're just in a very dry pattern and have been for months.

 

[MJO812]

This is for Monday 

[BxEngine]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm on about several forums and several Facebook pages.

“Im on about several” is a quintessential metsfan sentence lol