February 2025

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Take that to the bank 

I have zero expectations rest of winter. Any snow would be a pleasant surprise imo

We finally get some snow on the 15 fwiw 

 

after that a huge block basically sits over us which would probably keep the area dry haha. 

[brooklynwx99]

the ECMWF actually looks amazing aloft. massive blocking

[MJO812]

Just now, Allsnow said:

We finally get some snow on the 15 fwiw 

 

after that a huge block basically sits over us which would probably keep the area dry haha. 

That would be awful but I doubt that will happen like it did in January . The ridge looks to pump this time around.

[brooklynwx99]

i'm really liking the burgeoning blocking signal. it all checks out... -PNA leads to N Atl wavebreaking which allows for retrogression of the Scandi ridge. couple that with a significant stratospheric disruption at 50mb and you're cooking up a block

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We will snow this month. The question is how much.  Going to be an interesting month .

if it's like February 2008 as some have been talking about, we will get at least one decent event and it will be in the latter part of the month.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That would be awful but I doubt that will happen like it did in January . The ridge looks to pump this time around.

Snowman should be happy to hear this, he has been talking about the big ridge for February.

[MANDA]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

4 rainers before the 10th? ugh

Honestly, I'll take it.  Would rather some good snows but I'm done with all the nuisance type events.  We need the rain so I'll take that over bothersome light events.  I know some of you are in locations that are truly snow starved this season, I get it.  You will take pretty much anything.   

[MJO812]

Eps looks flatter than op for the 9th

[MANDA]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We will snow this month. The question is how much.  Going to be an interesting month .

Can't say I disagree with this statement.  Much will depend on the push of cold air from the the north and where surface boundary sets itself up.  This will vary from event to event.  Just know that if it stays mostly to the north there is going to be great disappointment.  Have to believe though that at least 1 or 2 events could produce some light to moderate snow totals for most of this sub forum before the month is over.  Going to be a lot of back and forth from one guidance cycle to the next over the coming week.

[jm1220]

Just now, MANDA said:

Honestly, I'll take it.  Would rather some good snows but I'm done with all the nuisance type events.  We need the rain so I'll take that over bothersome light events.  I know some of you are in locations that are truly snow starved this season, I get it.  You will take pretty much anything.   

Hopefully we get some rain this month to refill the reservoirs-there will be drought restrictions for sure if we don't recharge before summer. I'm sure there will be some other 2-3" type snow events this winter to get me over 10", hopefully to 15" but that's still well below average here, less than 50% of average. If we do get a block again but no SE ridge it just means more suppression. We need some way to amplify the pattern to get storms to come north but resistance via confluence or weaker block so it doesn't turn into a strong primary to Erie that cooks us before we have a chance at redevelopment offshore. The AO should be positive which as Don points out is unfavorable for significant snow in NYC. We have the same fast Pacific flow pattern which will try to kneecap the amplification needed or favor SWFEs if the SE ridge gets too dominant. There's a small window for something to work out here but we should be realistic that it's small, and that might be a front ender to rain. I can't think of many gradient/SWFE patterns that work here (at least S of I-84)-we get one-offs sometimes like 2/22/08, but the last time that really worked here was an epic example like 93-94.

I mean, there is the cold air to the north which could favor the front ender to rain if we have a good overrunning high for the SWFE to come into, but without some mechanism to prevent it from being scoured out or force redevelopments offshore in time, NYC is a very uphill climb. 

[Allsnow]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Hopefully we get some rain this month to refill the reservoirs-there will be drought restrictions for sure if we don't recharge before summer. I'm sure there will be some other 2-3" type snow events this winter to get me over 10", hopefully to 15" but that's still well below average here, less than 50% of average. If we do get a block again but no SE ridge it just means more suppression. We need some way to amplify the pattern to get storms to come north but resistance via confluence or weaker block so it doesn't turn into a strong primary to Erie that cooks us before we have a chance at redevelopment offshore. The AO should be positive which as Don points out is unfavorable for significant snow in NYC. We have the same fast Pacific flow pattern which will try to kneecap the amplification needed or favor SWFEs if the SE ridge gets too dominant. There's a small window for something to work out here but we should be realistic that it's small, and that might be a front ender to rain. I can't think of many gradient/SWFE patterns that work here (at least S of I-84)-we get one-offs sometimes like 2/22/08, but the last time that really worked here was an epic example like 93-94.

I mean, there is the cold air to the north which could favor the front ender to rain if we have a good overrunning high for the SWFE to come into, but without some mechanism to prevent it from being scoured out or force redevelopments offshore in time, NYC is a very uphill climb. 

The ao was for negative for two months and we got nothing 

[Allsnow]

[RU848789]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

The ao was for negative for two months and we got nothing 

We did get 10.6" from late Dec through late January, so not nothing, even if not as much as many thought we would get...

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, Allsnow said:

obviously not calling for anything that strong, but this does have similarities to March 2018. can't act like it doesn't. same -PNA to N ATL wavebreak that allows for a retrograde of the Scandi ridge into Greenland. combine that with a MJO pass through the Maritime Continent and a significant stratospheric disruption

[Allsnow]

EPS snow mean likes a front end Super Bowl Sunday and the following week for something bigger. It’s been very consistent in that thinking 

[psv88]

Just now, Allsnow said:

EPS snow mean likes a front end Super Bowl Sunday and the following week for something bigger. It’s been very consistent in that thinking 

Our peak snow climo period. First two weeks of February is when we typically clean up 

[Allsnow]

 

[NEG NAO]

Growing confidence that there are a few models that are agreeing about a moderate frozen event mid- late week 3-6 on the 12Z Euro - IMO need a few more runs in a row too gain more confidence and if they still agree after Sunday nights 0Z run - its thread time if Walt agrees

Models: GFS — Pivotal Weather

[eduggs]

9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Growing confidence that there are a few models that are agreeing about a moderate frozen event mid- late week 3-6 on the 12Z Euro - IMO need a few more runs in a row too gain more confidence and if they still agree after Sunday nights 0Z run - its thread time if Walt agrees

Models: GFS — Pivotal Weather

ECM doesn't seem to show much snow locally during that period. Or even through 10 days. Why do I think it will probably be right? And then a full pattern breakdown into an early spring. GFS and even CMC look decent with several wintry chances. Going to ride the edge at our latitude. Right now I'm thinking rain and ZR mostly.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

ECM doesn't seem to show much snow locally during that period. Or even through 10 days. Why do I think it will probably be right? And then a full pattern breakdown into an early spring. GFS and even CMC look decent with several wintry chances. Going to ride the edge at our latitude. Right now I'm thinking rain and ZR mostly.

Eps disagrees along with the other models. A pattern change is coming. 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, eduggs said:

ECM doesn't seem to show much snow locally during that period. Or even through 10 days. Why do I think it will probably be right? And then a full pattern breakdown into an early spring. GFS and even CMC look decent with several wintry chances. Going to ride the edge at our latitude. Right now I'm thinking rain and ZR mostly.

coastal areas don't get much ZR

probably wet snow or rain

 

[EastonSN+]

15 minutes ago, eduggs said:

ECM doesn't seem to show much snow locally during that period. Or even through 10 days. Why do I think it will probably be right? And then a full pattern breakdown into an early spring. GFS and even CMC look decent with several wintry chances. Going to ride the edge at our latitude. Right now I'm thinking rain and ZR mostly.

You do not believe the mjo heading into phase 8 1 and 2 as well as the AO product to go negative on the ensembles is going to come to fruition? Or are you saying that early spring will follow that period?

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, eduggs said:

ECM doesn't seem to show much snow locally during that period. Or even through 10 days. Why do I think it will probably be right? And then a full pattern breakdown into an early spring. GFS and even CMC look decent with several wintry chances. Going to ride the edge at our latitude. Right now I'm thinking rain and ZR mostly.

If anything it's the latter part of February where we'll have our best chances of getting snow.  The pattern will likely completely breakdown into spring in March.  It never happens in February, because in this month you can easily go from 60 one day to snow the next day-- seen it  a million times.  There's a chance that NYC could double its snowfall totals in a late February storm, similar to February 2008.

 

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

If anything it's the latter part of February where we'll have our best chances of getting snow.  The pattern will likely completely breakdown into spring in March.  It never happens in February, because in this month you can easily go from 60 one day to snow the next day-- seen it  a million times.  There's a chance that NYC could double its snowfall totals in a late February storm, similar to February 2008.

 

I think phases eight one and two as well as the length of the blocking time frame will easily lead into the second week of March. 

[Rjay]

On 11/25/2022 at 2:40 PM, MJO812 said:

Pattern change next weekend on eps ?

 

On 11/25/2022 at 2:51 PM, MJO812 said:

Same with 12z eps. Pattern change starts next weekend. 

 

On 11/30/2022 at 11:25 AM, MJO812 said:

Gfs brings the pattern change in earlier next week. 

 

On 12/3/2022 at 8:34 AM, MJO812 said:

We should all hang in there and be patient. Do you really think the models will be wrong with the pattern change and many meteorologists also ?

 

On 12/4/2022 at 10:21 PM, MJO812 said:

Yes they are for mid month . Gfs has been trending favorable every run. The pattern change is coming and mid month should start the wintry process.

 

On 12/7/2022 at 7:40 AM, MJO812 said:

Finally the gefs and gfs agrees with the other models about the pattern change next weekend.

 

On 12/13/2022 at 8:10 AM, MJO812 said:

That's what people want when they hear pattern change. 

 

On 12/5/2022 at 9:00 AM, MJO812 said:

Keep denying the pattern change . Nothing even suggests those temps in mid to late December .

I'm still amazed how you can't see the pattern moving forward to be the best we had in years.

 

On 11/29/2023 at 10:05 AM, MJO812 said:

Evem Paul Roundy is expecting a big pattern change to cold in the 2nd half . 

Everyone is expecting the MJO to go into the favorable phases.

 

 

On 12/21/2023 at 9:18 AM, MJO812 said:

Too far out to say if or how much snow we will get. Pattern change is finally coming. 

 

On 12/21/2023 at 11:34 AM, MJO812 said:

Loving the models not pushing back the pattern change . Maybe by NYE?

 

On 12/21/2023 at 9:32 PM, MJO812 said:

DT on board with a big pattern change 

 

On 12/22/2023 at 6:38 AM, MJO812 said:

Mjo still moving along nicely 

Pattern change is moving up

( I'm going to get weenied again by snowman19)

 

On 12/22/2023 at 7:36 PM, MJO812 said:

Can we just enjoy the fact that the models are actually showing a pattern change and it's gaining traction. 

 

 

On 12/27/2023 at 10:34 AM, MJO812 said:

Ensembles look good. Pattern change starts this week. Question is how long.

 

On 12/29/2023 at 8:37 AM, MJO812 said:

Your daily DT talk

He is still watching a few chances of storms in early January and a pattern change is underway. 

 

 

On 1/26/2024 at 1:54 PM, MJO812 said:

Euro and gfs are pretty siniliar. Big pattern change.

 

On 2/2/2024 at 3:47 PM, MJO812 said:

Who ? There is alot of data supporting a pattern change. 

 

On 2/5/2024 at 12:16 AM, MJO812 said:

It's hard to ignore all the signals for a pattern change . It will get colder and it will snow but the question is how much .

 

On 12/25/2024 at 12:29 PM, MJO812 said:

We have been averaging positive with the PNA. There are no signs of it going negative in the near future. 

Just enjoy the pattern change in early to mid January instead of worrying about what's going to happen in late winter.

Anything past 300 hours is gravy.

 

31 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps disagrees along with the other models. A pattern change is coming. 

Bruh.

And you prob have like 20" total over the last 3 seasons.

[BxEngine]

I mean…he was more correct than some of the typical doomers around here. We just didnt get the snow. Not many predicted a colder than normal first half of winter lol

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, BxEngine said:

I mean…he was more correct than some of the typical doomers around here. We just didnt get the snow. Not many predicted a colder than normal first half of winter lol

the pattern did occur. just benefited south of the Mason-Dixon line the most. it happens

[Rjay]

9 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

I mean…he was more correct than some of the typical doomers around here. We just didnt get the snow. Not many predicted a colder than normal first half of winter lol

These posts go back years.  When metsfan talks about pattern changes hes talking about snow.   Idc what he says, we all know it.  Tbh this board wouldn't be the same if he didn't post on it but I have to rib him bc of how aggressive he gets when you don't believe "it's coming" lol.  

[eduggs]

37 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps disagrees along with the other models. A pattern change is coming. 

EPS is not snowy outside of NNE. I would advise caution at this juncture unless you don't mind bitter disappointment. The 300mb jet is pretty far north over this period. We are only briefly and periodically tickling the cold.

Everything could break right. Overrunning often overperforms locally. We don't need high amplitude waves and they come every 2-3 days. But from memory at our latitude ZR to rain is more likely than snow or snow to IP. Still... I'll be begging for and dreaming of snow.

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the pattern did occur. just benefited south of the Mason-Dixon line the most. it happens

Weather patterns will always change.  The latest one was a cold/dry result with lots of bad luck.