February 2025

[donsutherland1]

The EPS and EPS weeklies suggest that an AO+/PNA- pattern will prevail during most or all of the first half of February. Such a pattern comes with reduced prospects for 6" or more snow in the New York City area. Since 1950, 2 (13%) of 6" or greater snowstorms during February 1-15 occurred with an AO+/PNA-.

New York City Dates:
February 11-12, 1994 12.8"
February 13-14, 2014 12.5" (changed to heavy rain before going back to snow)

Both snowstorms had in common an unseasonably cold air mass as snow moved into the Middle Atlantic Region.
In general, the pattern can provide ideas, but synoptic details (the presence of a deep cold air mass) matter.

The 500 mb and temperature anomaly maps for both cases are below.

Currently, the long-range guidance does not show 1994- or 2014-type cold across much of the East. That was the critical detail that overcame an otherwise hostile pattern. Unless that changes (or the forecast pattern changes), prospects for a significant or major snowfall in the New York City area during the first half of February will likely be limited.

[LibertyBell]

31 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The EPS and EPS weeklies suggest that an AO+/PNA- pattern will prevail during most or all of the first half of February. Such a pattern comes with reduced prospects for 6" or more snow in the New York City area. Since 1950, 2 (13%) of 6" or greater snowstorms during February 1-15 occurred with an AO+/PNA-.

New York City Dates:
February 11-12, 1994 12.8"
February 13-14, 2014 12.5" (changed to heavy rain before going back to snow)

Both snowstorms had in common an unseasonably cold air mass as snow moved into the Middle Atlantic Region.
In general, the pattern can provide ideas, but synoptic details (the presence of a deep cold air mass) matter.

The 500 mb and temperature anomaly maps for both cases are below.

Currently, the long-range guidance does not show 1994- or 2014-type cold across much of the East. That was the critical detail that overcame an otherwise hostile pattern. Unless that changes (or the forecast pattern changes), prospects for a significant or major snowfall in the New York City area during the first half of February will likely be limited.

Figures that 1994 and 2014 would be only two analogs for snowstorms lol.  Where is all that historic cold that hit the Gulf Coast going, Don? Will we not get any more arctic shots in the upcoming month?

Perhaps we will be sunny and mild, that is the next best outcome.

[donsutherland1]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Figures that 1994 and 2014 would be only two analogs for snowstorms lol.  Where is all that historic cold that hit the Gulf Coast going, Don? Will we not get any more arctic shots in the upcoming month?

Perhaps we will be sunny and mild, that is the next best outcome.

The Gulf Coast snowstorm raced across the Atlantic, bombed out, and set wind records in Ireland. The cold is rapidly moderating.

In the longer-range, the cold will increasingly dump into the West with pieces coming eastward. The cold shots in the East could be more transient in nature, unlike with this month. There is some uncertainty, as the weekly guidance is warmer than the closing days of the EPS and GEFS. I expect all of this guidance to converge in coming days. But the absence of blocking suggests a more transient nature to the cold shots.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

The Gulf Coast snowstorm raced across the Atlantic, bombed out, and set wind records in Ireland. The cold is rapidly moderating.

In the longer-range, the cold will increasingly dump into the West with pieces coming eastward. The cold shots in the East could be more transient in nature, unlike with this month. There is some uncertainty, as the weekly guidance is warmer than the closing days of the EPS and GEFS. I expect all of this guidance to converge in coming days. But the absence of blocking suggests a more transient nature to the cold shots.

Looks like the arctic outbreak on the 30-31 will be our last for awhile Don and might get the January average to 29.4 or even below?

Warmup just in time for February 1.

 

[MJO812]

Don, this isn't a warm signal .The cold only goes out west because the EPO goes positive for 4 or 5 days then reverses.  We have seen this over and over again so far this winter.

All the long range warmth calls Hage busted so far this winter. The epo ridge has been consistent. 

This is all the models showing this.

[EastonSN+]

20 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The Gulf Coast snowstorm raced across the Atlantic, bombed out, and set wind records in Ireland. The cold is rapidly moderating.

In the longer-range, the cold will increasingly dump into the West with pieces coming eastward. The cold shots in the East could be more transient in nature, unlike with this month. There is some uncertainty, as the weekly guidance is warmer than the closing days of the EPS and GEFS. I expect all of this guidance to converge in coming days. But the absence of blocking suggests a more transient nature to the cold shots.

Thanks Don 

The difference between the gefs and the eps is the mjo where the EPS goes into the cod while the gefs stays in the warm phases for the next 15 days at least. 

It does appear that the wave will make it to phases 8, 1 and 2 approximately mid month February with of course the usual one to two week lag which would put us into the last week of February into the beginning of March. 

Given history it seems that March is snowy in La niñas with the old saying "March saved Winter". Would be fitting if the mjo has decent amplitude in phases 8 1 and 2 right at the start of March. 

The fact that the EPO seems to want to stay negative would suggest that cold would be at least at our side of the globe if the mjo does cooperate, which phase eight would suggest a trough in the east. If blocking is absent perhaps we avoid the suppression look this time. Looking at the plant below I do not see how we avoid phases 8 1 and 2. 

Of course March is always a wild card with shorter wavelengths leading to bowling ball type storms.

 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Don, this isn't a warm signal .The cold only goes out west because the EPO goes positive for 4 or 5 days then reverses.  We have seen this over and over again so far this winter.

All the long range warmth calls Hage busted so far this winter. The epo ridge has been consistent. 

This is all the models showing this.

isn't this above freezing? looks like an inland/upstate snow signal

[MJO812]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

isn't this above freezing? looks like an inland/upstate snow signal

You have a risk with the ridge but I rather take my chance with this than the suppression pattern. 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Don 

The difference between the gefs and the eps is the mjo where the EPS goes into the cod while the gefs stays in the warm phases for the next 15 days at least. 

It does appear that the wave will make it to phases 8, 1 and 2 approximately mid month February with of course the usual one to two week lag which would put us into the last week of February into the beginning of March. 

Given history it seems that March is snowy in La niñas with the old saying "March saved Winter". Would be fitting if the mjo has decent amplitude in phases 8 1 and 2 right at the start of March. 

The fact that the EPO seems to want to stay negative would suggest that cold would be at least at our side of the globe if the mjo does cooperate, which phase eight would suggest a trough in the east. If blocking is absent perhaps we avoid the suppression look this time. Looking at the plant below I do not see how we avoid phases 8 1 and 2. 

Of course March is always a wild card with shorter wavelengths leading to bowling ball type storms.

 

One thing that seems to be true with March is that it's snowy if either December or January or both were snowy.  If we don't have much snow in the first half of winter then March is usually not snowy either.

 

[MJO812]

Grain of salt with the SV maps but the pattern gets better after the 1st week of February. All the ensembles show a quick change to cold weather .

[EastonSN+]

18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

One thing that seems to be true with March is that it's snowy if either December or January or both were snowy.  If we don't have much snow in the first half of winter then March is usually not snowy either.

 

Yeah the years we have a Gulf of Alaska trough flooding Canada with warm air is lights out the entire winter.

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Grain of salt with the SV maps but the pattern gets better after the 1st week of February. All the ensembles show a quick change to cold weather .

so just the typical thaw we have in the middle of winter that only lasts a week or two

Even our best winters had these thaws (1993-94 and 1995-96).

 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

so just the typical thaw we have in the middle of winter that only lasts a week or two

Even our best winters had these thaws (1993-94 and 1995-96).

 

Yeah it's really tracing the mjo. Per my post above to Don that wave should reach phase 8 the second or third week of February, then we have the one to two week lag. Given that the EPO seems to want to be negative the entire winter we will have ample cold on our side of the globe therefore providing cold air to tap into if the track is right.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah it's really tracing the mjo. Per my post above to Don that wave should reach phase 8 the second or third week of February, then we have the one to two week lag. Given that the EPO seems to want to be negative the entire winter we will have ample cold on our side of the globe therefore providing cold air to tap into if the track is right.

Makes me think we might be going back towards an early 2010s type of pattern for the next few years (though probably not as cold as those winters.)

[Dark Star]

35 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Don 

The difference between the gefs and the eps is the mjo where the EPS goes into the cod while the gefs stays in the warm phases for the next 15 days at least. 

It does appear that the wave will make it to phases 8, 1 and 2 approximately mid month February with of course the usual one to two week lag which would put us into the last week of February into the beginning of March. 

Given history it seems that March is snowy in La niñas with the old saying "March saved Winter". Would be fitting if the mjo has decent amplitude in phases 8 1 and 2 right at the start of March. 

The fact that the EPO seems to want to stay negative would suggest that cold would be at least at our side of the globe if the mjo does cooperate, which phase eight would suggest a trough in the east. If blocking is absent perhaps we avoid the suppression look this time. Looking at the plant below I do not see how we avoid phases 8 1 and 2. 

Of course March is always a wild card with shorter wavelengths leading to bowling ball type storms.

 

I appreciate all the long range discussions.  Thanks.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Makes me think we might be going back towards an early 2010s type of pattern for the next few years (though probably not as cold as those winters.)

I honestly think we have long-term patterns and 2000 to 2018 is a mirror image of 55 through 69. I think we have to look at 70 through 99 where we had five really good Winters. For me personally I don't think we're going back to the early 2000s. That being said, we have seen, storm track wise, the 1970s and 1980s where the Gulf Coast and Southeast are getting hit. Even in the warm winters in the last few years Tennessee and the Delmarva have gotten higher than average snowfall. I guess the good news to that would be in our warmer climate we can still have record snows in Florida and a trace of snow in May LOL. 

I think we need to do a lot of research into the 1970s and 1980s where the exact same thing we're having now is occurring. Warm and wet cold and dry. 

Blue Wave has identified the fast flow as a culprit for storms missing us. Is this why the same thing happened in the 70s and '80s, increasing volatility aside? 

Some positives I have seen this winter: 

1. The warm ocean pool in Indonesia has failed to keep the mjo in a negative phases like we fear last year. 

2. We can still have low average temperature Winters for multiple months. 

3. We will not have perpetual troughs in the West Coast diving to Baja causing the southeast ridge to connect to the nao. 

4. Not all in our blockings are now South based.

[NEG NAO]

50 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Don, this isn't a warm signal .The cold only goes out west because the EPO goes positive for 4 or 5 days then reverses.  We have seen this over and over again so far this winter.

All the long range warmth calls Hage busted so far this winter. The epo ridge has been consistent. 

This is all the models showing this.

I wouldn't trust any model long range past 5 - 7 days - check this out on the EURO AI

last nights 0Z vs, todays 06Z

[donsutherland1]

55 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Don, this isn't a warm signal .The cold only goes out west because the EPO goes positive for 4 or 5 days then reverses.  We have seen this over and over again so far this winter.

All the long range warmth calls Hage busted so far this winter. The epo ridge has been consistent. 

This is all the models showing this.

I don't expect a torch. It will be warmer than it has been but not exceptionally warm. Whether that changes during the second half of the month remains to be seen given the limits of model skill.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

I wouldn't trust any model long range past 5 - 7 days - check this out on the EURO AI

last nights 0Z vs, todays 06Z

This is the benefit of the negative EPO and the cold being on our side of the globe. For this period we either need a follow-up wave after a cutter or a standard wave that does not over amplify. Either would suffice. 

If we can score one or two snow events during this period then we reach the cold mjo phases which could lead to additional snowfall chances, this time absent extreme blocking which should hold back the suppression.

[MJO812]

First week of February looks shot with milder weather and cutters. After that the pattern should get better.

[Stormlover74]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

First week of February looks shot with milder weather and cutters. After that the pattern should get better.

And not even much rain unfortunately 

[NEG NAO]

28 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

First week of February looks shot with milder weather and cutters. After that the pattern should get better.

like I said previously don't believe any models past 5 - 7 days - 12Z Canadian does not agree with you or GFS still alot of cold around

[SnowGoose69]

I might lean more towards the GEFS right now given its handled the MJO better.  the GEPS/EPS probably are getting colder faster since they are not pushing it through 4-5-6

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Don 

The difference between the gefs and the eps is the mjo where the EPS goes into the cod while the gefs stays in the warm phases for the next 15 days at least. 

It does appear that the wave will make it to phases 8, 1 and 2 approximately mid month February with of course the usual one to two week lag which would put us into the last week of February into the beginning of March. 

Given history it seems that March is snowy in La niñas with the old saying "March saved Winter". Would be fitting if the mjo has decent amplitude in phases 8 1 and 2 right at the start of March. 

The fact that the EPO seems to want to stay negative would suggest that cold would be at least at our side of the globe if the mjo does cooperate, which phase eight would suggest a trough in the east. If blocking is absent perhaps we avoid the suppression look this time. Looking at the plant below I do not see how we avoid phases 8 1 and 2. 

Of course March is always a wild card with shorter wavelengths leading to bowling ball type storms.

 

If we can keep getting at least pieces of cold air masses coming eastward after the first half of February, the PNA becomes less important due to the shortening of wave lengths. A number of the biggest storms during the second half of February have occurred with a PNA-. But let's see where we are as we near mid-February.

[NEG NAO]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

I might lean more towards the GEFS right now given its handled the MJO better.  the GEPS/EPS probably are getting colder faster since they are not pushing it through 4-5-6

the other problem is the MJO is going into the extreme right side of the Neutral Circle and there is some disagreements amongst guidance if it will enter 4-5-6 or stay in the Neutral Zone and make a left hand turn towards the colder phases - STAY TUNED !

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

the other problem is the MJO is going into the extreme right side of the Neutral Circle and there is some disagreements amongst guidance if it will enter 4-5-6 or stay in the Neutral Zone and make a left hand turn towards the colder phases - STAY TUNED !

The one thing I will say is this winter the GEFS amplitude has tended to be a bit too strong so it might end up between the two

[Allsnow]

We done for a while 

 

hopefully NYC can get to 10 or over 4 in one storm But that looks increasingly unlikely 

[Stormlover74]

Bring it

[Allsnow]

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Bring it

We will have a Bluewave post soon about this potential and how we haven’t had a week to start February without 60 since the mega Nino in 2016 

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Bring it

Eps isn't that warm