February 2025

[STORMANLI]

41 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Cold air is at least not far away.  I don't want to post my NYC metro snow triangle again.  I've lived through the 70's and 80's with some pretty darn cold winters, but just poor patterns for snow.  They key ingredient is cold air.  The next is of course everything lining up just right.  We live in a zone where we typically straddle the 540 thickness line.  One slight tick one way or the other means less snow.  Then sometimes, we are in the model's bullseye, and then we get a subsidence zone right over us.  I am normally one cancelling winter by late January if the pattern has been miserable and continues to look so on the long range models.  This year is different.  We have hope.  The models aren't sniffing out cold or warm very well, but as long as Canada, especially eastern Canada has cold air, one can be optimistic.  Yes, year by year we are warming.  Around here especially, as we have learned on this site from the Labrador/Gulf Stream circulation slowing down.  We have men on base, we just need the timely hit...

Or Walk

Wild Pitch

Passed Ball

Catcher's Interference

Balk

Not Proud

[donsutherland1]

11 hours ago, Dark Star said:

I think Don said -2.1 degrees for January?  That's based on the previous 30 year average, which is a warmer average than taking the last 100 years or so.  If we took the last 100 year average, this January was right around normal, maybe a smidgen above normal?

NYC was 2.5° below normal. The mean temperature of 31.2° was 1.1° below the 1901-2000 January average.

[MJO812]

18z AI  Euro is very wintry midmonth

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

Cold air is at least not far away.  I don't want to post my NYC metro snow triangle again.  I've lived through the 70's and 80's with some pretty darn cold winters, but just poor patterns for snow.  They key ingredient is cold air.  The next is of course everything lining up just right.  We live in a zone where we typically straddle the 540 thickness line.  One slight tick one way or the other means less snow.  Then sometimes, we are in the model's bullseye, and then we get a subsidence zone right over us.  I am normally one cancelling winter by late January if the pattern has been miserable and continues to look so on the long range models.  This year is different.  We have hope.  The models aren't sniffing out cold or warm very well, but as long as Canada, especially eastern Canada has cold air, one can be optimistic.  Yes, year by year we are warming.  Around here especially, as we have learned on this site from the Labrador/Gulf Stream circulation slowing down.  We have men on base, we just need the timely hit...

80s had consistently small to moderate events along with very cold temps. 

Our averages are soaring now so those events have dwindled. Now it's all or nothing winters however climate change is affecting our weather patterns more than ever.

These new patterns are not favorable for significant snows so we're seeing more and more nothing years 

[wishcast_hater]

Climate change = bs. I’m sure the mods will delete this. Can’t challenge the narrative.


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[the_other_guy]

25 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Climate change = bs. I’m sure the mods will delete this. Can’t challenge the narrative.


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Ill bite…you see the numbers…give us your theory

[psv88]

3 hours ago, wishcast_hater said:

Climate change = bs. I’m sure the mods will delete this. Can’t challenge the narrative.


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You must not be a “numbers” kinda fella 

[Allsnow]

EPS snow mean was 8-9 inches for nyc overnight 

 

first threat looks to be super weekend 

[Allsnow]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

EPS snow mean was 8-9 inches for nyc overnight 

 

first threat looks to be super weekend 

The gefs as well are very snowy. Hopefully we end up on the right side of the boundary on a few of these storms 

 

First potential looks to be wed into Thursday 

[gravitylover]

I just want no snow the night of the 11th and 13th between here and Chicago. It's a miserable ride across PA when it's snowing and I have 2 days of meetings I have to bring stuff to. See what y'all can do to make that happen for me would ya

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

EPS snow mean was 8-9 inches for nyc overnight 

 

first threat looks to be super weekend 

It's all about that boundary. Right now it favors SNE and north 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

80s had consistently small to moderate events along with very cold temps. 

Our averages are soaring now so those events have dwindled. Now it's all or nothing winters however climate change is affecting our weather patterns more than ever.

These new patterns are not favorable for significant snows so we're seeing more and more nothing years 

I like the drier pattern of the -AMO, this is the kind if weather I grew up with.

 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

NYC was 2.7° below normal. The mean temperature of 31.2° was 1.1° below the 1901-2000 January average.

How does it compare with 1951-80 or 1961-90, Don? Those are the normals most of us grew up with.

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, STORMANLI said:

Or Walk

Wild Pitch

Passed Ball

Catcher's Interference

Balk

Not Proud

give me the hit over the other outcomes, those other outcomes only work when the bases are loaded or if there is a runner on third (in the case of passed ball, wild pitch and balk.)

 

[Allsnow]

47 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's all about that boundary. Right now it favors SNE and north 

The snow means are probably the best they looked all season fwiw 

[Allsnow]

The ensembles reloading the pattern after the 14th

 

[SnoSki14]

15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The snow means are probably the best they looked all season fwiw 

That's true but underestimate the SE ridge at your own peril. 

A little blocking would do wonders for us right now. 

[MJO812]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

That's true but underestimate the SE ridge at your own peril. 

A little blocking would do wonders for us right now. 

Agree

They are the best they looked all winter.  Our ridge in the east can be our friend if we get some help from the NAO.

[MJO812]

AI Euro is loaded with storm after storm. Mostly rain with some front end thumps on the model for the coast but it's very active .

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Agree

They are the best they looked all winter.  Our ridge in the east can be our friend if we get some help from the NAO.

And unfortunately any blocking is too far out on the ensembles right now. 

Personally think this is a SNE north gradient pattern. Think 08 though maybe a tad further south but time will tell

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

And unfortunately any blocking is too far out on the ensembles right now. 

Personally think this is a SNE north gradient pattern. Think 08 though maybe a tad further south but time will tell

I assume you mean 07-08? Even 07-08 was far better than this winter.... remember late in February we had an SWFE that gave us 6-8 inches of snow (even here on the south shore.)

 

[Allsnow]

31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's true but underestimate the SE ridge at your own peril. 

A little blocking would do wonders for us right now. 

We will still get front end stuff regardless 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We will still get front end stuff regardless 

That's how it use to be back in the day. Alot of snow to rain events.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

That's how it use to be back in the day. Alot of snow to rain events.

Not every storm will be snow but we should get something until the colder pattern sets in 2nd half of the month 

[Allsnow]

 

[Allsnow]

 

[dmillz25]

We have seen blocking trend stronger as it gets closer so it wouldn’t surprise me to see the boundary sag further south as well

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Not every storm will be snow but we should get something until the colder pattern sets in 2nd half of the month 

until? what will happen when the colder pattern sets in-- suppression or more snow?

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That's how it use to be back in the day. Alot of snow to rain events.

yes snow to rain is our normal climate at the coast.

[MJO812]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

yes snow to rain is our normal climate at the coast.

Yep. Hope those return. I don't mind a nice thump before turning to rain.