February 2025

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I will say that wasn't voodoo. Maybe he means all the posts that imply confidently how the pattern will change, be epic etc. We all know those posts can go overboard.

 

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@donsutherland1 Although twitterland has locked in/wishcasted an exact replica of the highly anomalous, historic February 2018 SSWE, in reality, what exactly happens is very, very far from being decided. For starters, we have a completely different, night and day QBO evolution, not even close, the current MJO progression and this La Niña event in no way, shape or form resembles 2018. Good luck getting an exact redux of an extremely rare, record-breaking SSWE within 7 years apart
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[wdrag]

Hi! Looking at2/5-6 for an unlikely thread since mostly I84. Certainly no thread from myself prior to 2/2.

[brooklynwx99]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@donsutherland1 Although twitterland has locked in/wishcasted an exact replica of the highly anomalous, historic February 2018 SSWE, in reality, what exactly happens is very, very far from being decided. For starters, we have a completely different, night and day QBO evolution, not even close, the current MJO progression and this La Niña event in no way, shape or form resembles 2018. Good luck getting an exact redux of an extremely rare, record-breaking SSWE within 7 years apart
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

lol who are you following on twitter? i haven’t seen anybody “locking in” an exact repeat of March 2018. a 14 year old posting from his parents’ basement doesn’t count 

[brooklynwx99]

a weakening 50mb vortex (which there is good support for), Scandinavian ridging, and a -PNA are also solid precursors for -NAO later on. that’s about all i’ve seen from others on social media

[anthonymm]

23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it does sometimes.  15-16 had 40 inches of snow here with an average temperature of 40 degrees.  Very similar to 82-83 (but even snowier).

But you need a very strong el nino for that.

It really depends on how warm it gets.  Look at February 2018, it was a warm month during a la nina and we had a 5 inch snowstorm that month.

It can happen but don't expect it to stay on the ground more than a day or two.

This is the way I would put it:

if it's a strong el nino you can still get an HECS during a mild winter.  It may be the only major storm of the winter, but you can still get one.

If it's a la nina you probably won't get anything more than 4-6 inches in a single snowstorm in a mild winter, but it's still something.

Yup and we’re heading into a very mild-if not torch- pattern. Plus its much harder for the city to get snow these days so that 4-6 number you cite is probably more like 1-2 or 2-3 at best now. 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Yup and we’re heading into a very mild-if not torch- pattern. Plus its much harder for the city to get snow these days so that 4-6 number you cite is probably more like 1-2 or 2-3 at best now. 

If I were going to make a prediction, this is what I would say too.  We're not likely to get a 4" snowstorm because those have been hard to come by the last few years and NYC is not likely to get 10" on the season. 1-3 is doable though. To break the 4" snowless streak, let alone the 10" season snowless streak, we're going to need a good pattern.

[FPizz]

15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol who are you following on twitter? i haven’t seen anybody “locking in” an exact repeat of March 2018. a 14 year old posting from his parents’ basement doesn’t count 

He's been saying the same tired line about twitterland for years.  You would think he would have discovered the unfollow button by now. 

[anthonymm]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

If I were going to make a prediction, this is what I would say too.  We're not likely to get a 4" snowstorm because those have been hard to come by the last few years and NYC is not likely to get 10" on the season. 1-3 is doable though. To break the 4" snowless streak, let alone the 10" season snowless streak, we're going to need a good pattern.

100%, just look at the betting markets. Current prediction is around 3” for all of February. When you have to put your money where your mouth is you’ll be smart and aim low.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

100%, just look at the betting markets. Current prediction is around 3” for all of February. When you have to put your money where your mouth is you’ll be smart and aim low.

I didn't know there were betting markets for snow.....

It makes sense though 3" would get NYC to close to 9 inches and that will likely be it for the season.

[anthonymm]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I didn't know there were betting markets for snow.....

It makes sense though 3" would get NYC to close to 9 inches and that will likely be it for the season.

To give you an idea of how hard we've been sucking recently, 9 inches is the total combined snowfall in central park from 22/23 to 23/24. If we actually reach 10" that'll be snowier than the previous two winters combined lmao

[the_other_guy]

I’ll be the brave one I think February gets more snow than January.

I think we go AN for monthly temps, but we get a descent storm

[donsutherland1]

Given the discussion of the MJO, below is the experience for the second half of February when the MJO went into Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1 or above.

 

The key takeaway is that should the MJO go into Phase 8 at a high amplitude (1 or above) during the second half of February, that would indicate that New York City had a good chance of seeing at least some additional measurable snowfall this winter (and likely in Phase 8 or Phase 1).

 

[STORMANLI]

46 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I didn't know there were betting markets for snow.....

It makes sense though 3" would get NYC to close to 9 inches and that will likely be it for the season.

So I could just here a handicapping expert say

" Take  the snow and give the inches "

[donsutherland1]

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I didn't know there were betting markets for snow.....

It makes sense though 3" would get NYC to close to 9 inches and that will likely be it for the season.

It's speculation. Nothing more. Indeed, on January 1, the Kalshi betting forum expected 8.2" of snow for January in NYC. That initial idea was likely driven by persistence/recency bias--it had snowed 2.8" during the 12/21-31 period, therefore, the expectation was that more snow would follow.

Today, it's still showing 3.5" for January. January has seen 3.0", and none of the guidance for several days had shown any measurable snow for the City through the remainder of January.

[anthonymm]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It's speculation. Nothing more. Indeed, on January 1, the Kalshi betting forum expected 8.2" of snow for January in NYC. That initial idea was likely driven by persistence/recency bias--it had snowed 2.8" during the 12/21-31 period, therefore, the expectation was that more snow would follow.

Today, it's still showing 3.5" for January. January has seen 3.0", and none of the guidance for several days had shown any measurable snow for the City through the remainder of January.

After the threat of suppression was made obvious after the beginning of the month it quickly corrected. Also the recency bias probably isnt why they went with around 8" in the beginning, its probably just because 8" is around the average Jan snowfall. If anything recency bias would lead you to think (correctly) that this Jan would be very below average in terms of snow. I'm sticking with my guns, its a multiyear low snow cycle. It isnt meant to snow much for us in the 2020s.

[eduggs]

This next two weeks smells like a cold/dry - warm/rain period with maybe a little ZR mixed in for a wintry appeal. A few model cycles might tease us with front end overrunning snow, but I suspect whichever model shows the least snow will verify best. Hopefully my impression turns out completely wrong or at least things change for the better mid month. Unfortunately over the past 10 years, by mid-Feb it starts to feel like spring.

[Allsnow]

 

[donsutherland1]

Here are the most four recent cycles for the GFS and ECMWF with initial forecast horizons of 168 hours, 240 hours, and 360 hours for total snowfall for New York City

 

:

 

EPS Estimates: 168 hours: < 1"; 240 hours: 1"; 360 hours: 6"

GEFS Estimates: 168 hours: 0"; 240 hours: 0"; 360 hours: 1"

 

 

 

[Eduardo]

4 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

strat warming = snow = voodoo.  Anytime strat warming enters the picture as the Winter's savior, it harkens the unwelcome entrance of Winter's Angel of Death instead.  Sorry but I don't care about strat warming.

I always saw them as more of a crapshoot since, in the event of one, you face the risk of shunting all of the cold to the other side of the pole.  That’s why I always cringe when there’s SSW talk in the beginning of the winter.  You chance burning up valuable climo periods.   On the flip side though, when we get toward the waning days of the winter, why not roll the dice on the possibility of some bonus winter wx?

[Allsnow]

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

I've been using the 1989-90 analog for a month now lol.

But believe it or not in this era of climate change, there is no way FM will be as warm as JFM were in 1990.

I would like to know what caused that early April snowfall event in 1990 after it was in the mid 80s for 3 straight days in middle March.  Was that the result of an SSW in 1990?

 

[bluewave]

Textbook La Niña progression heading into February. The -EPO ridge pulls back to the west allowing the Southeast Ridge to rebound. So February is in track for our first warmer than average temperature departure month this winter. 
 

 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

I always saw them as more of a crapshoot since, in the event of one, you face the risk of shunting all of the cold to the other side of the pole.  That’s why I always cringe when there’s SSW talk in the beginning of the winter.  You chance burning up valuable climo periods.   On the flip side though, when we get toward the waning days of the winter, why not roll the dice on the possibility of some bonus winter wx?

why can't we ever have enough cold to have cold on -BOTH- sides of the pole? Has anyone ever thought about THAT?

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, bluewave said:

Textbook La Niña progression heading into February. The -EPO ridge pulls back to the west allowing the Southeast Ridge to rebound. So February is in track for our first warmer than average temperature departure month this winter. 
 

 

hopefully warm enough to bring the storm track closer to us.  This might mean more snow in February than we got in January.  That would be a win.

 

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I didn't know there were betting markets for snow.....

It makes sense though 3" would get NYC to close to 9 inches and that will likely be it for the season.

I want in on this action!!!

[Dark Star]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

hopefully warm enough to bring the storm track closer to us.  This might mean more snow in February than we got in January.  That would be a win.

 

Now it's too warm.  

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Textbook La Niña progression heading into February. The -EPO ridge pulls back to the west allowing the Southeast Ridge to rebound. So February is in track for our first warmer than average temperature departure month this winter. 
 

 

2nd half of the month will be a wildcard 

 

 

[eduggs]

I guess Feb 9th plus/minus is the best window right now according to ensembles for a possible snow threat. Maybe another low chance threat around the 6th? With the jet stream configuration, anything for the next 2 weeks feels like a long shot.

[Allsnow]

Just now, eduggs said:

I guess Feb 9th plus/minus is the best window right now according to ensembles for a possible snow threat. Maybe another low chance threat around the 6th? With the jet stream configuration, anything for the next 2 weeks feels like a long shot.

Yeah, ensembles continue to hint of a follow up wave 9-10 and perhaps a swfe 12-13th 

 

anything before those dates is rain most likely 

[Gravity Wave]

2 hours ago, anthonymm said:

100%, just look at the betting markets. Current prediction is around 3” for all of February. When you have to put your money where your mouth is you’ll be smart and aim low.

Wait, you can bet on NYC snowfall? A few seasons years of putting the house on the under and I'll be able to retire.