February 2025

[CentralNJSnowman]

36 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I'm "assuming" that someone did a statistical study.  I understand the concept, but I disagree.  I believe we should use all years on record as the average.  Otherwise, it is still subjective, in my stubborn opinion.  

I would think that depends why one is asking the question of 'How does this winter compare to normal?'

If you're taking it as a given that the underlying averages are very different than they used to be, and you're interested in knowing how this winter compares to the current underlying averages, I think you'd limit the comparison to the past 12-15 years.  While that doesn't give a great sample size, your assumptions essentially mean that anything further back than that is irrelevant.

If you're trying to understand how this winter supports or refutes the idea that the underlying averages are changing, then you'd want to compare it to a much longer historical benchmark.

[Allsnow]

Pretty good tweet by bam. February probably isn’t a complete shutout for snow in nyc 

[Allsnow]

 

[snowman19]

@donsutherland1 Although twitterland has locked in/wishcasted an exact replica of the highly anomalous, historic February 2018 SSWE, in reality, what exactly happens is very, very far from being decided. For starters, we have a completely different, night and day QBO evolution, not even close, the current MJO progression and this La Niña event in no way, shape or form resembles 2018. Good luck getting an exact redux of an extremely rare, record-breaking SSWE within 7 years apart
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Allsnow]

@snowman19 I think we get one more shot at winter end of Feb into march. The normal caveats apply and it could just be cold without snow 

[Allsnow]

As far as the first half of the month, the ensembles have been snowy between the 8th-11th. I would not be shocked if we get some slop storm during that timeframe 

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

@snowman19 I think we get one more shot at winter end of Feb into march. The normal caveats apply and it could just be cold without snow 

Maybe, yes, but a February, 2018 SSWE redux? Lol I wish twitter and facebook lots of luck with that one, I think they’re going to need it…..

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

@donsutherland1 didn’t the cfs and euro weeklies all have a torch to start this winter? 

Not a torch, but a warmer than normal seasonal forecast.

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Maybe, yes, but a February, 2018 SSWE redux? Lol I wish twitter and facebook lots of luck with that one, I think they’re going to need it…..

How do you think the month goes for nyc? 
 

you nailed my February 17 2024 snowfall last year 

[cleetussnow]

strat warming = snow = voodoo.  Anytime strat warming enters the picture as the Winter's savior, it harkens the unwelcome entrance of Winter's Angel of Death instead.  Sorry but I don't care about strat warming.

[donsutherland1]

24 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@donsutherland1 Although twitterland has locked in/wishcasted an exact replica of the highly anomalous, historic February 2018 SSWE, in reality, what exactly happens is very, very far from being decided. For starters, we have a completely different, night and day QBO evolution, not even close, the current MJO progression and this La Niña event in no way, shape or form resembles 2018. Good luck getting an exact redux of an extremely rare, record-breaking SSWE within 7 years apart
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

IMO, there are some building blocks for a SSW, but there is no guarantee that things will come together. Even if they do, how it would propagate and what impact that would have remains to be seen. Having said that, I would be surprised to see something of the magnitude of 2018, much less the sensible weather impacts of March into April 2018.

[EastonSN+]

Weakening but still there and on target for late February.

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

How do you think the month goes for nyc? 
 

you nailed my February 17 2024 snowfall last year 

Lol I haven’t done well for temps this winter obviously but my guess is still February ends up with below normal snowfall. I think the gradient is north of us into CNE/NNE. I think the -PNA/SE ridge/+NAO/+AO/lack of a 50/50 low is an issue

[SnowGoose69]

I would not get too excited about 2/8.  I suspect there is high risk that ends up well to the north.  There is also a chance it could just be flat and nothing if again the whole progressiveness of the pattern is being underestimated at this range.  Overall it requires nearly perfect timing of everything to work

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

IMO, there are some building blocks for a SSW, but there is no guarantee that things will come together. Even if they do, how it would propagate and what impact that would have remains to be seen. Having said that, I would be surprised to see something of the magnitude of 2018, much less the sensible weather impacts of March into April 2018.

That ended up being the most snowfall in my lifetime from March 1st onwards with 27 inches (almost a full season average). However, even 25% of the impact is a massive win.

Will be interesting as it would align with phases 8,1 and 2.

 

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

That ended up being the most snowfall in my lifetime from March 1st onwards with 27 inches (almost a full season average). However, even 25% of the impact is a massive win.

Will be interesting as it would align with phases 8,1 and 2.

 

Its still early but I am becoming somewhat more optimistic perhaps we see a good 8-1-2 wave again.  In the last 2 days its evident the EPS has really has the GEFS move towards it on the MJO idea, at least in the near term.  The GEFS still seems to want to maybe kill the wave in 7 or late in 6 though.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Dark Star said:

I'm "assuming" that someone did a statistical study.  I understand the concept, but I disagree.  I believe we should use all years on record as the average.  Otherwise, it is still subjective, in my stubborn opinion.  

Generally I'd agree with you, but the issue is that some stations have a much longer POR than other stations, so for example, you can't compare Central Park's 150+ years of numbers vs some other station (likely an airport) which has many fewer years in their POR.  I think 60 years is a good middle ground, because most of our airports had started to accumulate weather data 60 years ago.

 

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

That ended up being the most snowfall in my lifetime from March 1st onwards with 27 inches (almost a full season average). However, even 25% of the impact is a massive win.

Will be interesting as it would align with phases 8,1 and 2.

 

Mine was March 2015

2014-2015 was absolutely amazing in February and March.

January was pretty good too, but some people are still stuck on the January 2015 *disappointment* of 10 inches of snow.

2014-15 was head and shoulders above 2013-14 which wasn't as great at the coast.

[EastonSN+]

21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Mine was March 2015

2014-2015 was absolutely amazing in February and March.

January was pretty good too, but some people are still stuck on the January 2015 *disappointment* of 10 inches of snow.

2014-15 was head and shoulders above 2013-14 which wasn't as great at the coast.

14/15 was great too and colder. I had 20.5 IMBY 

[anthonymm]

15 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Just curious. How are you so sure with two full months where it can snow left 

Cause the pattern is recent years has been no snow. We couldnt get decent snow with a freezing January what makes u think we'll get it with a SE ridge niña February lmao

[anthonymm]

3 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Damn straight.

 

enjoy 55 and rain followed by cold for all those rooting for this pattern

 

much better off with the cold pattern and little events here and there

 

Always better to be fighting suppression then fighting warm air in this new warmer climate

Absolutely! I'd much rather take the cold and worry about suppression giving me 1-3" instead of 0" and 1" of rain with a SE ridge type pattern.

[Allsnow]

Interesting to see the gfs go towards more of a press of the cold at the end of next week. The euro Ai has been showing this for a few days now. 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Interesting to see the gfs go towards more of a press of the cold at the end of next week. The euro Ai has been showing this for a few days now. 

PV hanging around....

[anthonymm]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Lol I haven’t done well for temps this winter obviously but my guess is still February ends up with below normal snowfall. I think the gradient is north of us into CNE/NNE. I think the -PNA/SE ridge/+NAO/+AO/lack of a 50/50 low is an issue

Every single last teleconnection is wrong for NYC snow. The only good one is -EPO. The most important things to get snow into the city is a huge +PNA ridge in Montana + weakly negative NAO. Without one of these things you can kiss anything above an inch or two in February goodbye

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

PV hanging around....

CMC as well. I don’t expect much snow here next week but the AI has done a great job in the medium range showing trends 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Lol I haven’t done well for temps this winter obviously but my guess is still February ends up with below normal snowfall. I think the gradient is north of us into CNE/NNE. I think the -PNA/SE ridge/+NAO/+AO/lack of a 50/50 low is an issue

Let's be brave... make a prediction, will NYC get more snow in February than they got in January? It doesn't have to be a snowy February for that to happen, they don't even need a 4" storm for it to happen, all they need is 3.1" of snow.  Do you think January will end up NYC's snowiest month this season or will it be February with a worse pattern for snowfall?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I would not get too excited about 2/8.  I suspect there is high risk that ends up well to the north.  There is also a chance it could just be flat and nothing if again the whole progressiveness of the pattern is being underestimated at this range.  Overall it requires nearly perfect timing of everything to work

that's pretty much the story of this entire season

[anthonymm]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Let's be brave... make a prediction, will NYC get more snow in February than they got in January? It doesn't have to be a snowy February for that to happen, they don't even need a 4" storm for it to happen, all they need is 3.1" of snow.  Do you think January will end up NYC's snowiest month this season or will it be February with a worse pattern for snowfall?

 

January will absolutely be snowier. NYC does not do well with any amount of warm anomalies. SE ridge pretty much kills any chance for snow around here. I would not be surprised if February does not pick up 2" even. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, anthonymm said:

January will absolutely be snowier. NYC does not do well with any amount of warm anomalies. SE ridge pretty much kills any chance for snow around here. I would not be surprised if February does not pick up 2" even. 

it does sometimes.  15-16 had 40 inches of snow here with an average temperature of 40 degrees.  Very similar to 82-83 (but even snowier).

But you need a very strong el nino for that.

It really depends on how warm it gets.  Look at February 2018, it was a warm month during a la nina and we had a 5 inch snowstorm that month.

It can happen but don't expect it to stay on the ground more than a day or two.

This is the way I would put it:

if it's a strong el nino you can still get an HECS during a mild winter.  It may be the only major storm of the winter, but you can still get one.

If it's a la nina you probably won't get anything more than 4-6 inches in a single snowstorm in a mild winter, but it's still something.

[Brian5671]

25 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

CMC as well. I don’t expect much snow here next week but the AI has done a great job in the medium range showing trends 

The big warmth is all but gone next week-Euro had 60's and 70's for a couple of days