February 2025

[donsutherland1]

The very mild weather will prevail into the first day of March before a brief shot of much colder air arrives for Sunday and Monday. Sunday and Monday will see temperatures top out in the lower and middle 30s in New York City. Temperatures will reebound quickly starting Tuesday.

No meaningful threats for a moderate or larger snowfall in the New York City area are likely through at least the middle of the first week of March.

There remain indications that a major pattern re-alignment could take place starting in the first week of March bringing an end to a persistently cold regime that has predominated through most of the winter. By mid-March, a sustained warmer than normal pattern could be in place. The pattern change will likely follow a brief but fairly sharp cold shot.

A strong PNA ridge is currently in place. Historical experience suggests that the presence of such a ridge at this time of year has been followed by the absence of major snowfalls in the New York City area.

The PNA reached +1.500 on February 19th and remained at or above +1.500 through February 23rd. In all 12 years that saw the PNA reach +1.500 or above on February 15 or later since 1950, the remainder of winter saw no 10" or greater snowstorms. If historic experience holds true yet again, that would make the Winter 2024-2025 the fourth consecutive winter without a 10" or above snowstorm in New York City. The last time that happened was during Winter 2016-2017 through Winter 2019-2020. Most of the 12 winters cited above went on to see some additional measurable snowfall with a few seeing a 6"+ storm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions have peaked and are beginning to fade. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was +1.92 today. The SOI was unchanged from the previous day for the first time since June 15, 2024.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.503 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 35.0° (0.9° below normal).

 

[Roger Smith]

9 hours ago, SACRUS said:

https://newenglandhistoricalsociety.com/great-snow-1717/

 

https://www.untappedhistory.com/single-post/2018/01/04/the-great-snow-of-1717

 

 

Those 1717 dates are Julian calendar, if they had been in Gregorian (that began in 1752 in the British colonies) it would have been eleven days later. There is a mention of a Sunday, Feb 24 -- this proves my point, calendars repeat every 28 years (except for missing leap years in 1800 and 1900). 308 years later (2025) is 28 x 11 ... so the 1717 calendar, if Gregorian (n.s.) would have a Sunday Feb 21. In the Julian calendar (eleven days were removed in 1752) it would be Feb 10, and so Feb 24 was also a Sunday. The significance is that the biggest snowfalls were in early to mid-march in our calendar, same timing as the blizzard of 1888. Sunday, Feb 24 is actually march 7 in modern calendar, and march 7 of 1717 would be march 18 if using new style. 

[bluewave]

February will finish very close to average temperatures with the late month warm up. The 7 station average is currently -0.1. And the winter finishes at -0.8°. But would be closer to 0.0° using the 1981-2010 climate normals which were about 1° cooler. 

Feb 2025

EWR….+0.4

NYC…..-1.6

LGA…..-0.9

JFK….+2.3

HPN….-0.6

BDR…-0.5

ISP.…+0.8

AVG…-0.1

Jan 2025

EWR…-1.4°

NYC…-2.5°

LGA….-2.0°

JFK…..-0.2°

HPN….-1.6°

BDR….-1.3°

ISP…...-1.5°

AVG…..-1.5°

Dec 2024

EWR….-0.1°

NYC….-0.9°

LGA…..-1.0°

JFK…..+0.1°

HPN….-1.6°

BDR…..-1.3°

ISP…….-0.6°

AVG….-0.8°

DJF AVG…..-0.8°

[SnoSki14]

Not a cold winter by any stretch. A very average one but it felt much colder due to wind chills and the fact that past winters were blowtorches. 

[EastonSN+]

14 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The very mild weather will prevail into the first day of March before a brief shot of much colder air arrives for Sunday and Monday. Sunday and Monday will see temperatures top out in the lower and middle 30s in New York City. Temperatures will reebound quickly starting Tuesday.

No meaningful threats for a moderate or larger snowfall in the New York City area are likely through at least the middle of the first week of March.

There remain indications that a major pattern re-alignment could take place starting in the first week of March bringing an end to a persistently cold regime that has predominated through most of the winter. By mid-March, a sustained warmer than normal pattern could be in place. The pattern change will likely follow a brief but fairly sharp cold shot.

A strong PNA ridge is currently in place. Historical experience suggests that the presence of such a ridge at this time of year has been followed by the absence of major snowfalls in the New York City area.

The PNA reached +1.500 on February 19th and remained at or above +1.500 through February 23rd. In all 12 years that saw the PNA reach +1.500 or above on February 15 or later since 1950, the remainder of winter saw no 10" or greater snowstorms. If historic experience holds true yet again, that would make the Winter 2024-2025 the fourth consecutive winter without a 10" or above snowstorm in New York City. The last time that happened was during Winter 2016-2017 through Winter 2019-2020. Most of the 12 winters cited above went on to see some additional measurable snowfall with a few seeing a 6"+ storm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions have peaked and are beginning to fade. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was +1.92 today. The SOI was unchanged from the previous day for the first time since June 15, 2024.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.503 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 35.0° (0.9° below normal).

 

Thanks as always Don for your work this winter. 

It's great to see that we finally had a meteorological winter with all three months below average. First cold winter in years. 

I do worry about the spring though as there are rumblings of an sswe, I don't remember the last time we had a truly hot April, I believe the last time we reached 80 was in April 2008?

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Not a cold winter by any stretch. A very average one but it felt much colder due to wind chills and the fact that past winters were blowtorches. 

This will go down as our mildest -EPO+PNA -AO winter. We don’t often get a combination of blocking over Western North America extending from Alaska down to the Western US at the same time we get block near and to the west of Greenland. The past years like 2002-2003, 1985-1986, 1976-1977, and 1962-1963 were colder to much colder. Snowfall was near the bottom similar to 1985-1986. Notice how the ridges became more expansive leading to a smaller and weaker 500mb low near the Northeast.

 

[SACRUS]

 

45 / 32 sunny.  warm the next two days before much colder Sun / Mon the back warmer 3/3 - 3/6.  Rain 050 - 1.00  Tue night into Wednesday.   Cooler between the 7 - 11th.  Beyond there could be warm / wet overall above normal.

 

[lee59]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

February will finish very close to average temperatures with the late month warm up. The 7 station average is currently -0.1. And the winter finishes at -0.8°. But would be closer to 0.0° using the 1981-2010 climate normals which were about 1° cooler. 

Feb 2025

EWR….+0.4

NYC…..-1.6

LGA…..-0.9

JFK….+2.3

HPN….-0.6

BDR…-0.5

ISP.…+0.8

AVG…-0.1

 

Jan 2025

EWR…-1.4°

NYC…-2.5°

LGA….-2.0°

JFK…..-0.2°

HPN….-1.6°

BDR….-1.3°

ISP…...-1.5°

AVG…..-1.5°

Dec 2024

EWR….-0.1°

NYC….-0.9°

LGA…..-1.0°

JFK…..+0.1°

HPN….-1.6°

BDR…..-1.3°

ISP…….-0.6°

AVG….-0.8°

DJF AVG…..-0.8°

Interesting that JFK with one day left in February is averaging 36.8. Similarly located recording stations being Islip at 34 and Farmingdale at 33.3. Quite a difference. 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:
 

Highs:

EWR: 68 (1976)
NYC: 677 (1976)
LGA: 66 (1976)
JFK: 66 (1976)


Lows:

EWR: 1 (1934)
NYC: 5 (1934)
LGA: 10 (2014)
JFK: 11 (2014)

Historical:
 

1846: William S. Forrest, in "Historical and Descriptive Sketches of Norfolk and Vicinity" in 1853, recorded the Great Gust of 1846. The Great Gust was a severe coastal storm that produced 5 feet waves in Norfolk. 

1900 - A massive storm spread record snows from Kansas to New York State. Snowfall totals rangeD up to 17.5 inches at Springfield IL and 43 inches at Rochester NY, with up to 60 inches in the Adirondack Mountains of New York State. (David Ludlum)

1900: A massive storm produced record snow from Kansas to northwest Ohio and southern Michigan from February 27 to March 01. The observation at the University of Kansas in Lawrence reported 15 inches of snow on the 27th was "phenomenal; only one heavier snowfall has been recorded for any month, a depth of 16 inches on February 11th and 12th, 1894." (CD). The Coop near Wamego, KS, in the northeast part of Kansas, a record-breaking 24 inches fell in just 12 hours! Other snowfall amounts in Kansas include 19.0" in Abilene, 18.7" in Topeka, 18.0" in McPherson, and 18.0" in Ellinwood. Topeka saw 17.3" on February 27, the most recorded in 24 hours.  In Missouri, heavy snow fell over a considerable portion of the state on the 27th and 28th. From Bates, Cass, Jackson, and Platte counties in the west, to St. Charles, Lincoln, Pike, Ralls, Marion, Lewis, and Clark counties to the east, snowfall ranged from 10 to over 20 inches. The snow drifted severely in many places, and where the fall of snow exceeded 10 inches, railroads were blocked, and county roads rendered impassable for several days. A Coop in Darksville, in northern Randolph County, reported drifts from 6 to 8 feet deep in many places. Houstonia Pettis County's drifts were the worst for more than 30 years. Snowfall amounts in Missouri include 22" in Miami, 20" in Richmond, 13.9" in Columbia, and 13" in Kansas City and Jefferson City.The storm probably gave central and northern parts of Illinois some of the highest snowfall totals since 1830-1831. (CD) The Coop in Astoria measured an astonishing 37.8 inches with this storm! Coatsburg saw 26 inches.  Other snowfall amounts include 21" near Normal, 17.5" in Springfield, and 13" near Jacksonville.Heavy snow, freezing rain, and sleet occurred in Indiana from February 28 to March 01. In South Bend, 16" of snow fell, prompting street-car employees to work all night to keep the tracks open.  As a result, railroad traffic was delayed on all lines. Fairmount and Greensburg reported ice and sleet covered the ground on the 28th. Marion, in Grant County, observed the heaviest sleet storm in many years. Some snowfall amounts include 21" at Valparaiso Waterworks, 18" in Syracuse, Angola, and Fort Wayne, and 16" in South Bend and Huntington.  Northwestern Ohio and southern Michigan saw heavy snowfall from February 27 to March 01. The Coop in Wauseon Water Plant recorded 20.5" of snow.  Toledo received 20.2 inches. Grape, Michigan, west-northwest of Monroe, said the heavy snow made all roads impassable. Mail could not be delivered from Grape to Monroe due to badly drifted snow. Some snowfall amounts from southern Michigan include 18" in Hillsdale, Grape, and Somerset, 14" in Detroit, 13" in Lancing, and 12" in Kalamazoo.
 

1952 - An intense storm brought coastal sections of southeastern Massachusetts to a halt, stranding 3000 motorists on Lower Cape, and leaving ten thousand homes on the Cape without electricity. Winds gusting to 72 mph created mountainous snowdrifts of the 18 inches of snow which buried Nantucket and Hyannis. A barometric pressure reading of 29.02 inches was reported at the center of the storm. (The Weather Channel)

 

1952: A powerful Nor'easter hit Cape Cod with winds of 70-80 mph and snowfall amounts of 12-20 inches. These conditions created 12 feet drifts.

 

1962: Wilmington, North Carolina, reached a high temperature of 85 degrees. This is the warmest temperature on record during February. 

1987 - A powerful storm produced severe thunderstorms in Louisiana and Mississippi early in the day. About mid morning a monstrous tornado touched down near Moselle MS and grew to a width of two miles as it passed near Laurel MS. The tornado traveled a distance of 40 miles killing six persons, injuring 350 others, and causing 28.5 million dollars damage. The tornado swept homes right off their foundations, and tossed eighteen wheel trucks about like toys. Strong straight line winds associated with the powerful storm system gusted to 70 mph at Jonesboro AR and Carbondale IL. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms in California produced severe weather during the early morning hours. Strong thunderstorm winds, gusting to 74 mph, downed trees in the Sacramento area. Unseasonably mild weather prevailed in the northwestern U.S. The afternoon high of 71 degrees at Portland OR was a February record. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms in the southeast corner of the nation produced winds gusts to 58 mph at Fort Lauderdale FL, and a total of seven inches of rain. Heavy snow whitened parts of the Northern Plateau and the Northern Rockies, with ten inches reported at Marion MT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Showers and thunderstorms over the Southern Plains Region capped a record wet February for parts of Oklahoma. Totals for the month ranged up to 9.11 inches at McCurtain, with 4.63 inches reported at Oklahoma City. Snow and sleet fell across northern Oklahoma, with four inches reported at Freedom and Jefferson. Snow also spread across southern Kansas into Missouri and Arkansas, with six inches of snow reported at Harrison AR. In Alaska, February temperatures at Nome averaged 21 degrees below normal, ranging from -38 degrees to 29 degrees during the month. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2012 - The first confirmed February tornado in Nebraska state history struck Lincoln and Logan Counties shortly after 4PM. The EF-0 tornado was on the ground intermittently for up to six minutes and traveled 3 miles before dissipating in southwest Logan County. The path of the tornado was over open rangeland and cropland where limited damage occurred. Patches of snow were still on the ground at the time. (NWS North Platte)

[SACRUS]

 

NYC 
Feb 28 - Mar 1, 2005 : 7.7 Snow

EWR
Feb 28 - Mar 1, 2005: 9.5 inches of sow

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks as always Don for your work this winter. 

It's great to see that we finally had a meteorological winter with all three months below average. First cold winter in years. 

I do worry about the spring though as there are rumblings of an sswe, I don't remember the last time we had a truly hot April, I believe the last time we reached 80 was in April 2008?

we had an sswe in late March 2010 and hot April, an sswe in late March does not mean cool April, 92 in early April 2010

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:
 

Highs:

EWR: 68 (1976)
NYC: 677 (1976)
LGA: 66 (1976)
JFK: 66 (1976)


Lows:

EWR: 1 (1934)
NYC: 5 (1934)
LGA: 10 (2014)
JFK: 11 (2014)

Historical:
 

1846: William S. Forrest, in "Historical and Descriptive Sketches of Norfolk and Vicinity" in 1853, recorded the Great Gust of 1846. The Great Gust was a severe coastal storm that produced 5 feet waves in Norfolk. 

1900 - A massive storm spread record snows from Kansas to New York State. Snowfall totals rangeD up to 17.5 inches at Springfield IL and 43 inches at Rochester NY, with up to 60 inches in the Adirondack Mountains of New York State. (David Ludlum)

1900: A massive storm produced record snow from Kansas to northwest Ohio and southern Michigan from February 27 to March 01. The observation at the University of Kansas in Lawrence reported 15 inches of snow on the 27th was "phenomenal; only one heavier snowfall has been recorded for any month, a depth of 16 inches on February 11th and 12th, 1894." (CD). The Coop near Wamego, KS, in the northeast part of Kansas, a record-breaking 24 inches fell in just 12 hours! Other snowfall amounts in Kansas include 19.0" in Abilene, 18.7" in Topeka, 18.0" in McPherson, and 18.0" in Ellinwood. Topeka saw 17.3" on February 27, the most recorded in 24 hours.  In Missouri, heavy snow fell over a considerable portion of the state on the 27th and 28th. From Bates, Cass, Jackson, and Platte counties in the west, to St. Charles, Lincoln, Pike, Ralls, Marion, Lewis, and Clark counties to the east, snowfall ranged from 10 to over 20 inches. The snow drifted severely in many places, and where the fall of snow exceeded 10 inches, railroads were blocked, and county roads rendered impassable for several days. A Coop in Darksville, in northern Randolph County, reported drifts from 6 to 8 feet deep in many places. Houstonia Pettis County's drifts were the worst for more than 30 years. Snowfall amounts in Missouri include 22" in Miami, 20" in Richmond, 13.9" in Columbia, and 13" in Kansas City and Jefferson City.The storm probably gave central and northern parts of Illinois some of the highest snowfall totals since 1830-1831. (CD) The Coop in Astoria measured an astonishing 37.8 inches with this storm! Coatsburg saw 26 inches.  Other snowfall amounts include 21" near Normal, 17.5" in Springfield, and 13" near Jacksonville.Heavy snow, freezing rain, and sleet occurred in Indiana from February 28 to March 01. In South Bend, 16" of snow fell, prompting street-car employees to work all night to keep the tracks open.  As a result, railroad traffic was delayed on all lines. Fairmount and Greensburg reported ice and sleet covered the ground on the 28th. Marion, in Grant County, observed the heaviest sleet storm in many years. Some snowfall amounts include 21" at Valparaiso Waterworks, 18" in Syracuse, Angola, and Fort Wayne, and 16" in South Bend and Huntington.  Northwestern Ohio and southern Michigan saw heavy snowfall from February 27 to March 01. The Coop in Wauseon Water Plant recorded 20.5" of snow.  Toledo received 20.2 inches. Grape, Michigan, west-northwest of Monroe, said the heavy snow made all roads impassable. Mail could not be delivered from Grape to Monroe due to badly drifted snow. Some snowfall amounts from southern Michigan include 18" in Hillsdale, Grape, and Somerset, 14" in Detroit, 13" in Lancing, and 12" in Kalamazoo.
 

1952 - An intense storm brought coastal sections of southeastern Massachusetts to a halt, stranding 3000 motorists on Lower Cape, and leaving ten thousand homes on the Cape without electricity. Winds gusting to 72 mph created mountainous snowdrifts of the 18 inches of snow which buried Nantucket and Hyannis. A barometric pressure reading of 29.02 inches was reported at the center of the storm. (The Weather Channel)

 

1952: A powerful Nor'easter hit Cape Cod with winds of 70-80 mph and snowfall amounts of 12-20 inches. These conditions created 12 feet drifts.

 

1962: Wilmington, North Carolina, reached a high temperature of 85 degrees. This is the warmest temperature on record during February. 

1987 - A powerful storm produced severe thunderstorms in Louisiana and Mississippi early in the day. About mid morning a monstrous tornado touched down near Moselle MS and grew to a width of two miles as it passed near Laurel MS. The tornado traveled a distance of 40 miles killing six persons, injuring 350 others, and causing 28.5 million dollars damage. The tornado swept homes right off their foundations, and tossed eighteen wheel trucks about like toys. Strong straight line winds associated with the powerful storm system gusted to 70 mph at Jonesboro AR and Carbondale IL. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms in California produced severe weather during the early morning hours. Strong thunderstorm winds, gusting to 74 mph, downed trees in the Sacramento area. Unseasonably mild weather prevailed in the northwestern U.S. The afternoon high of 71 degrees at Portland OR was a February record. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms in the southeast corner of the nation produced winds gusts to 58 mph at Fort Lauderdale FL, and a total of seven inches of rain. Heavy snow whitened parts of the Northern Plateau and the Northern Rockies, with ten inches reported at Marion MT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Showers and thunderstorms over the Southern Plains Region capped a record wet February for parts of Oklahoma. Totals for the month ranged up to 9.11 inches at McCurtain, with 4.63 inches reported at Oklahoma City. Snow and sleet fell across northern Oklahoma, with four inches reported at Freedom and Jefferson. Snow also spread across southern Kansas into Missouri and Arkansas, with six inches of snow reported at Harrison AR. In Alaska, February temperatures at Nome averaged 21 degrees below normal, ranging from -38 degrees to 29 degrees during the month. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2012 - The first confirmed February tornado in Nebraska state history struck Lincoln and Logan Counties shortly after 4PM. The EF-0 tornado was on the ground intermittently for up to six minutes and traveled 3 miles before dissipating in southwest Logan County. The path of the tornado was over open rangeland and cropland where limited damage occurred. Patches of snow were still on the ground at the time. (NWS North Platte)

Lows:

EWR: 1 (1934)
NYC: 5 (1934)
LGA: 10 (2014)
JFK: 11 (2014)

wow February 1934 ended historically cold just as it began and February 2014 ended almost as cold as February 2015

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

NYC

Feb 28 - Mar 1, 2005 : 7.7 Snow

1952 - An intense storm brought coastal sections of southeastern Massachusetts to a halt, stranding 3000 motorists on Lower Cape, and leaving ten thousand homes on the Cape without electricity. Winds gusting to 72 mph created mountainous snowdrifts of the 18 inches of snow which buried Nantucket and Hyannis. A barometric pressure reading of 29.02 inches was reported at the center of the storm. (The Weather Channel)

 

1952: A powerful Nor'easter hit Cape Cod with winds of 70-80 mph and snowfall amounts of 12-20 inches. These conditions created 12 feet drifts.

 

any snow here with this storm, Tony?

 

[MANDA]

February precipitation = 3.14".  February snowfall = 5.70", spread out over 7 events.

Not sure any of that was worth buckling up for.

Pretty sad if you ask me.

[SACRUS]

32 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1952 - An intense storm brought coastal sections of southeastern Massachusetts to a halt, stranding 3000 motorists on Lower Cape, and leaving ten thousand homes on the Cape without electricity. Winds gusting to 72 mph created mountainous snowdrifts of the 18 inches of snow which buried Nantucket and Hyannis. A barometric pressure reading of 29.02 inches was reported at the center of the storm. (The Weather Channel)

 

1952: A powerful Nor'easter hit Cape Cod with winds of 70-80 mph and snowfall amounts of 12-20 inches. These conditions created 12 feet drifts.

 

any snow here with this storm, Tony?

 

 

Nothing till a secod storm Mar 1 dumped 3 - 6 in the NYC/NJ metro area

[EastonSN+]

45 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

we had an sswe in late March 2010 and hot April, an sswe in late March does not mean cool April, 92 in early April 2010

I am so sick of cloudy damp cool April's. 

[SACRUS]

 

Closing in on >1.00 Tuesday PM- Wednesday.  Salt slayer

 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I am so sick of cloudy damp cool April's. 

hopefully we get a continuation of the westerlies that have predominated since last October that would keep it sunny and warm.

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I am so sick of cloudy damp cool April's. 

The good thing is, the stratosphere and troposphere haven’t coupled once since November. We’ve seen how many stratospheric displacements and wave reflections that haven’t coupled now? So why should this one, if it even happens?