February 2025

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

What? An average cannot be calculated without looking at the past. This post makes no sense at all. 

My point was why compare a negative or positive departure calculated from a current 30 year average against a past 30-year average. Ie if it's a negative one departure for this month using the current 30 years baseline, why should we compare that to a PAST 30 year average from say 1970 to 1999? 

[NorthShoreWx]

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

So then why not use a 50-year average as a baseline or 100 year average? 

I just don't get the point of continuously caveating that it was something different in the past as that is the past it does not affect the present. It's either warmer or colder compared to a certain baseline. If someone has to put in extra work to continue to say "but in the past this would have happened" then it's not efficient. If a 30-year baseline is not correct because someone has to keep caveating over and over again then something needs to change. Either change the baseline to be shorter like 10 years to be more relevant to the current time or expand the baseline so that someone doesn't have to continually say over and over again that it was different in the past. 

I just don't see the added value of caveating that it was different in the past than a current departure from average.

I was suggesting a non-meteorological reason why some (potentially including myself) might do that.

I wasn't necessarily disagreeing with the rest.  I think there are pros and cons to the choices of time periods to define as a baseline.  As for the caveating of multiple posts with ~'the past was different' being inefficient, it's better than ending every sentence with "lol", lol.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This was a great example of gradient patterns favoring areas to our north.

 

 

There was sooner or later going to be a stretch that nailed New England, Montreal, etc. Once the SWFE train starts in a Nina winter they get hammered. I can't think of the last time a pattern like this was good at our latitude, maybe 93-94 which is a once per century type winter and also would be warmer today. We need some kind of help from the southern stream for much of our snow, northern stream dominated patterns vary between bad and horrendous for snow south of I-84 and the fast Pacific jet makes it even worse. Plenty of dry windy cold though.

February was/has been decent but could've been so much better. 

[NorthShoreWx]

3 hours ago, vegan_edible said:

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/seasonal-affective-disorder/symptoms-causes/syc-20364651

From the link that you posted:

"Don't brush off that yearly feeling as simply a case of the "winter blues" or a seasonal funk that you have to tough out on your own. Take steps to keep your mood and motivation steady throughout the year."

Getting out and allowing yourself to enjoy a cold morning sounds like a big step to combating SAD.

https://www.rvia.org/news-insights/physical-and-mental-benefits-outdoor-recreation

https://extension.usu.edu/healthwellness/physical/does-physical-activity-improve-symptoms-of-seasonal-affective-disorder

 

[donsutherland1]

The coldest weather of this month is now moving into the past. It will turn milder late in the weekend. This milder weather will then continue next week.

The middle of next week could become quite mild with the mercury reaching 50° or above in New York City. Washington, DC could see highs reach 60° or above.

There remain indications that a major pattern re-alignment could take place starting in the first week of March bringing an end to a persistently cold regime that has predominated through most of the winter. The pattern change will likely follow a brief but fairly sharp cold shot.

A powerful PNA ridge is currently in place. Historical experience suggests that the presence of such a ridge at this time of year has been followed by the absence of major snowfalls in the New York City area.

The PNA reached +1.500 on February 19th and currently stands at +1.776. In all 12 years that saw the PNA reach +1.500 or above on February 15 or later since 1950, the remainder of winter saw no 10" or greater snowstorms. If historic experience holds true yet again, that would make the Winter 2024-2025 the fourth consecutive winter without a 10" or above snowstorm in New York City. The last time that happened was during Winter 2016-2017 through Winter 2019-2020. Most of the 12 winters cited above went on to see some additional measurable snowfall with a few seeing a 6"+ storm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions have peaked and are beginning to fade. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was -5.24 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.800 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.7° (2.2° below normal).

 

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I was suggesting a non-meteorological reason why some (potentially including myself) might do that.

I wasn't necessarily disagreeing with the rest.  I think there are pros and cons to the choices of time periods to define as a baseline.  As for the caveating of multiple posts with ~'the past was different' being inefficient, it's better than ending every sentence with "lol", lol.

although there is statistical reasoning, I find the 30 year temperature averages arbitrary.  They don't base  record highs or lows from it, nor do they base average seasonal snowfall on it.  

[eduggs]

On the subject of temperature records... is anybody concerned about how temperature departures are calculated? Is averaging the daily high and low temperature even all that representative or comparable? Should it matter if a low temperature was achieved after a brief but precipitous drop vs. a constant temperature for 16 straight hours? All this fussing about reference periods and minor anomalies... when the method of calculation is hardly precise or rigorously scientific.

[Volcanic Winter]

Not caught up in our thread yet so forgive me if this has been posted recently, but I saw this and found it interesting (in a painful sort of way ):

The Delmarva and VA/NC coasts on south really did unbelievably well, not so much inland or north of VA.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

There was sooner or later going to be a stretch that nailed New England, Montreal, etc. Once the SWFE train starts in a Nina winter they get hammered. I can't think of the last time a pattern like this was good at our latitude, maybe 93-94 which is a once per century type winter and also would be warmer today. We need some kind of help from the southern stream for much of our snow, northern stream dominated patterns vary between bad and horrendous for snow south of I-84 and the fast Pacific jet makes it even worse. Plenty of dry windy cold though.

February was/has been decent but could've been so much better. 

This may be one of the few times a gradient pattern has combined with a suppression pattern to produce that snow hole from PA into our area. In the old days we would usually get one or the other. Now we are getting cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks all within a few days of each other. 

 

[jm1220]

41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This may be one of the few times a gradient pattern has combined with a suppression pattern to produce that snow hole from PA into our area. In the old days we would usually get one or the other. Now we are getting cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks all within a few days of each other. 

 

Just have to laugh. 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 80 (2018)
NYC: 78 (2018)
LGA: 79 (2018)
JFK: 65 (2018)


Lows:

EWR: 6 (1959)
NYC: 5 (1968)
LGA: 6 (1968)
JFK: 5 (1968)

 

Historical:

1918 - A spectacular chinook wind at Granville, ND, caused the temperature to spurt from a morning low of 33 degrees below zero to an afternoon high of 50 degrees above zero. (David Ludlum)

1935 - Frequent duststorms occurred in eastern Colorado during the month, forcing schools to close and people to stay indoors. A fatality occurred on this date when two section cars collided on the railroad near Arriba CO, due to poor visibility. (The Weather Channel)

 

1936 - The temperature at Langdon, ND, climbed above zero for the first time in six weeks. Readings never got above freezing during all three winter months. (David Ludlum)

1971 - An outbreak of tornadoes hit northeastern Louisiana and northern and central Mississippi. The tornadoes claimed 121 lives, including 110 in Mississippi. Three tornadoes accounted for 118 of the deaths. There are 1600 persons injured, 900 homes were destroyed or badly damaged, and total damage was 19 million dollars. (David Ludlum)

1971 - Elk City, OK, was buried under 36 inches of snow to establish a 24 hour snowfall record for the state. (David Ludlum)

1971: A tornado outbreak struck portions of the Lower Mississippi River Valley and the Southeastern United States on February 21–22nd. The two-day tornado outbreak produced at least 19 tornadoes, probably several more, primarily brief events in rural areas, and killed 123 people across three states. The tornadoes "virtually leveled" entire communities in the state of Mississippi.

1987 - Low pressure over central California produced gale force winds along the coast, and produced thunderstorms which pelted Stockton, Oakland and San Jose with small hail. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A storm tracking across southern Canada produced high winds in the north central U.S., with gusted to 90 mph reported at Boulder CO. The high winds snapped trees and power lines, and ripped shingles off roofs. The Kentucky Fried Chicken Bucket was blown off their store in Havre MT. An eighteen foot fiberglass bear was blown off its stand along a store front in west Cody WY, and sailed east into downtown Cody before the owners were able to transport their wandering bear back home in a horse trailer. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing during the morning hours spread severe weather across Georgia and the Carolinas. Strong thunderstorm winds caused one death and thirteen injuries in North Carolina, and another four injuries in South Carolina. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Overnight thunderstorms produced heavy rain in central Texas. Rainfall totals ranged up to 2.80 inches at Camp Verde, with 2.20 inches reported at Leakey. Thunderstorms early in the day produced high winds in southern Texas, with wind gusts to 60 mph reported at Alice. Daytime thunderstorms in eastern Texas drenched Rosenberg with four inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2013: An astonishing 515 cm (202.8" or almost 17') level of snow depth was measured at Sukayu Onsen, Aomori on Honshu Island in Japan, on February 21, 2013, the deepest snow measured at an official weather site in Japan records. (Last Updated in 2020). 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 80 (2018)
NYC: 78 (2018)
LGA: 79 (2018)
JFK: 65 (2018)

 

we were left out of this warmth over here.....  honestly, I've seen warmer days in both January and February when we've hit the 70s here (most notably January 6, 2006, on the 11 year anniversary of the January 1996 blizzard.)Lows:

EWR: 6 (1959)
NYC: 5 (1968)
LGA: 6 (1968)
JFK: 5 (1968)

 

1967-68 was a very cold and dry winter, similar to this one.

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Just have to laugh. 

I suspect our snowfall peaked in 17-18 and this is just par for the course post peak. State College had their peak in 03-04 and then began a decline. But they were still able to have some good years in the mix from time to time. But noting like the 1960s to early 2000s. Almost  like an extended version of our 09-10 to 17-18. Hopefully, we can return to at least occasional benchmark storms and not have the extended lack of favorable storm tracks like State College has experienced. 
 

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, eduggs said:

On the subject of temperature records... is anybody concerned about how temperature departures are calculated? Is averaging the daily high and low temperature even all that representative or comparable? Should it matter if a low temperature was achieved after a brief but precipitous drop vs. a constant temperature for 16 straight hours? All this fussing about reference periods and minor anomalies... when the method of calculation is hardly precise or rigorously scientific.

This is part of my argument for why summer heat should be judged by number of 90 degree and higher highs and why winter cold should be judged by number of 32 degree and lower highs.

 

[bluewave]

39 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This is part of my argument for why summer heat should be judged by number of 90 degree and higher highs and why winter cold should be judged by number of 32 degree and lower highs.

 

By that metric JFK hasn’t had much cold this winter as the 7 highs at or below 32° weren’t that much more than the last two winters.

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending number of High temperatures at or below 32°

2024-2025	7	221
2023-2024	5	0
2022-2023	4	0
2021-2022	14	0
2020-2021	10	0
2019-2020	2	0
2018-2019	10	0
2017-2018	21	0
2016-2017	9	0
2015-2016	9	0
2014-2015	23	0
2013-2014	27	0
2012-2013	10	0
2011-2012	4	0
2010-2011	18	0
2009-2010	17	0
2008-2009	21	0
2007-2008	5	0
2006-2007	18	0
2005-2006	9	0
2004-2005	19	0
2003-2004	25	0
2002-2003	28	0
2001-2002	1	0
2000-2001	19	0
1999-2000	21	0
1998-1999	14	0
1997-1998	3	0
1996-1997	10	0
1995-1996	22	0
1994-1995	9	0
1993-1994	27	0

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

By that metric JFK hasn’t had much cold this winter as the 7 highs at or below 32° weren’t that much more than the last two winters.

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending number of High temperatures at or below 32°

2024-2025	7	221
2023-2024	5	0
2022-2023	4	0
2021-2022	14	0
2020-2021	10	0
2019-2020	2	0
2018-2019	10	0
2017-2018	21	0
2016-2017	9	0
2015-2016	9	0
2014-2015	23	0
2013-2014	27	0
2012-2013	10	0
2011-2012	4	0
2010-2011	18	0
2009-2010	17	0
2008-2009	21	0
2007-2008	5	0
2006-2007	18	0
2005-2006	9	0
2004-2005	19	0
2003-2004	25	0
2002-2003	28	0
2001-2002	1	0
2000-2001	19	0
1999-2000	21	0
1998-1999	14	0
1997-1998	3	0
1996-1997	10	0
1995-1996	22	0
1994-1995	9	0
1993-1994	27	0

Yes, it was the wind that made it feel so cold.  We didn't even have any single digit temperatures.

We weren't that cold by average temperatures either, weren't all 3 months above normal at JFK?

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

By that metric JFK hasn’t had much cold this winter as the 7 highs at or below 32° weren’t that much more than the last two winters.

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending number of High temperatures at or below 32°

2024-2025	7	221
2023-2024	5	0
2022-2023	4	0
2021-2022	14	0
2020-2021	10	0
2019-2020	2	0
2018-2019	10	0
2017-2018	21	0
2016-2017	9	0
2015-2016	9	0
2014-2015	23	0
2013-2014	27	0
2012-2013	10	0
2011-2012	4	0
2010-2011	18	0
2009-2010	17	0
2008-2009	21	0
2007-2008	5	0
2006-2007	18	0
2005-2006	9	0
2004-2005	19	0
2003-2004	25	0
2002-2003	28	0
2001-2002	1	0
2000-2001	19	0
1999-2000	21	0
1998-1999	14	0
1997-1998	3	0
1996-1997	10	0
1995-1996	22	0
1994-1995	9	0
1993-1994	27	0

What's the record in this regard for JFK, Chris? Has any winter had 30 or more such days-- maybe 1976-77?

 

Wild, our last truly cold winter (20 or more such days) was 2017-18... and how great were 2013-14, the entire 2002-03 to 2004-05 period and 1995-96 and 1993-94.

[Volcanic Winter]

Down to 13 overnight, don’t think this was forecasted (I saw like 20-22). Good radiative conditions?  

[BxEngine]

33 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Down to 13 overnight, don’t think this was forecasted (I saw like 20-22). Good radiative conditions?  

Yeah wind kinda subsided for a few hours, at least up here. 

[Brian5671]

Last morning in the teens for awhile with the warming trend that starts today...

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Last morning in the teens for awhile with the warming trend that starts today...

Hopefully the last morning in the teens for the rest of the season.

It's actually been in the low 20s here.

[SACRUS]

 

26  / 12 and sunny / dry weekend.  40s next two days then 50s mid week, warmer spots may touch 60 on Tuesday.   Warmer than normal 2/24 - 3/1.  Sharp cold turn 3/2 - 3/9.