February 2025

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is why I wasn’t expecting the -AO to last very long when it dropped below -5 a few weeks ago. These rapid rises have become the new normal in recent years. Notice how many 7+ sigma jumps we have had in recent years. This one was a +8.193 rise from the 15th to the 24th for a new 7th highest. Pretty wild following the greatest October rise on record last October. 

15Feb2025

-5.2570

0.

24Feb2025

2.9364

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii

 

#1……+10.790……3-11-21

#2…...+9.401…….1-16-16

#3……+9.256……3-2-56

#4……+9.039……4-21-13

#5……+8.522……1-25-05

#6…...+8.462…..1-15-77

#7…….+8.268….3-16-68

#8…….+7.793….2-25-01

#9…….+7.731….3-23-86

#10……+7.720…2-4-11
 

#11……+7.641…..3-5-70

#12…..+7.502…..1-19-85

#13……+7.387….3-20-78

#14……+7.240….10-23-24

#15……+7117……1-23-52

#16…..+7.066…1-24-08

#17……+7.043…3-19-15

#18……+7.038…2-10-76

Was the October extreme -AO foreshadow the one we just had?

We're also seeing a growing disconnect between the AO and the NAO.... was the NAO at all negative with either of these episodes?

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, wdrag said:

So far: This looks pretty accurate...

Walt could you shift that like 10 miles south, it cuts off part of Long Island.

6-12 inches of snow might be a little underdone.

Mt Pocono in the deep orange with 36-48 inches of snow?

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Montana has been consistently been getting the core of the cold in recent years. Even with the warm up last few days there are still at -20° for the month. This is their 4th top 10 coldest February since 2018.

 

Time Series Summary for Great Falls Area, MT (ThreadEx) - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1936	-5.2	0
2	2019	-0.2	0
3	2025	5.9	4
4	1922	9.0	0
5	1989	10.3	0
6	1899	11.0	0
7	2018	11.8	0
8	2021	12.4	0
9	1975	13.1	0
10	1978	14.4	0

 

Climatological Data for Great Falls Area, MT (ThreadEx) - February 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Sum	366	-82	-	-	1414	0	1.33	16.0	-
Average	15.3	-3.4	5.9	-20.0	-	-	-	-	5.1
Normal	36.7	15.2	25.9	-	937	0	0.51	8.7
2025-02-01	44	9	26.5	1.1	38	0	T	T	T
2025-02-02	10	-8	1.0	-24.4	64	0	0.02	0.7	T
2025-02-03	-3	-8	-5.5	-30.9	70	0	0.17	1.5	2
2025-02-04	-7	-9	-8.0	-33.4	73	0	0.20	2.4	2
2025-02-05	18	-11	3.5	-21.9	61	0	0.02	0.2	4
2025-02-06	11	-7	2.0	-23.4	63	0	T	T	4
2025-02-07	6	-8	-1.0	-26.4	66	0	0.28	2.1	4
2025-02-08	23	-8	7.5	-17.9	57	0	T	T	5
2025-02-09	13	-5	4.0	-21.4	61	0	0.06	1.8	7
2025-02-10	1	-29	-14.0	-39.5	79	0	0.04	0.7	5
2025-02-11	3	-25	-11.0	-36.5	76	0	T	T	5
2025-02-12	8	-18	-5.0	-30.6	70	0	T	0.1	5
2025-02-13	19	0	9.5	-16.2	55	0	T	T	5
2025-02-14	8	-2	3.0	-22.8	62	0	0.11	1.5	4
2025-02-15	3	-9	-3.0	-28.9	68	0	T	T	5
2025-02-16	4	-4	0.0	-26.0	65	0	0.17	1.9	5
2025-02-17	-2	-6	-4.0	-30.1	69	0	0.25	2.9	8
2025-02-18	-6	-22	-14.0	-40.3	79	0	0.01	0.2	10
2025-02-19	-6	-29	-17.5	-43.9	82	0	0.00	0.0	10
2025-02-20	36	-9	13.5	-13.1	51	0	0.00	0.0	9
2025-02-21	39	20	29.5	2.7	35	0	0.00	0.0	8
2025-02-22	42	36	39.0	12.0	26	0	0.00	0.0	6
2025-02-23	49	35	42.0	14.8	23	0	0.00	0.0	4
2025-02-24	53	35	44.0	16.5	21	0	0.00	M	M
2025-02-25	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-02-26	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-02-27	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-02-28	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M

Isn't this well predicted by climate models? The core of the cold will be going to interior mountainous locations while near coastal areas will warm more quickly.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, SACRUS said:

48 / 28 partly cloudy.  Warm the next few days, chance at 60 Wed or Thu with light rain/showers.  Mainly dry the next 7 days with colder still forevast by Sunday 3/2 - 3/5.  Overall may lean colder than normal till the 10/11th.  Beyond there warmup but we'll see if its warm or slightly warm/wet.

 

If we are cold for that many days we'll be the only part of the country that is.  Looks like 90% of the country will be warm throughout including the upper midwest.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 68 (1976)
NYC: 75 (1930)
LGA: 68 (1976)
JFK: 65 (1996)


Lows:

EWR: 10 (1990)
NYC: 1 (1914)
LGA: 12 (1990)
JFK: 12 (1990)

Historical:

 

1914: Heavy snow fell over a good portion of South Carolina and North Carolina on February 24-26, 1914. Snowfall amounts include 18 inches near Society Hill, SC, 14 inches in Fayetteville, NC, 13 inches at Darlington, SC, 11.7 inches at Columbia, SC, 8.1 inches at Charlotte, SC, and 7.2 inches at Greensboro, NC, and 7.0 inches at Raleigh, NC.

1922 - The temperature at Los Angeles, CA, soared to 92 degrees to establish a record for the month of February. (David Ludlum)

 

1934: An outbreak of six tornadoes killed nineteen in Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. The hardest-hit areas were Bowden, GA, and Shady Grove, AL. An estimated F4 tornado damaged or destroyed 90 homes, many in the Shady Grove community. One home in Lauderdale County, Mississippi, was picked up, thrown 400 feet, and blown to bits. Six family members were killed in the house. Three deaths occurred in two homes, and one preacher was killed during services.

1977 - Dust reduced visibilities from eastern Virginia through the southeastern states to Florida between the 24th and the 28th. The dust originated in the western Great Plains on the 22nd and 23rd, with wind gusts above 100 mph reported at Guadalupe Pass TX, at White Sands NM, in Sherman County KS, and in eastern Colorado. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Low pressure in Nevada produced snow from the southwestern U.S. to the Dakotas. Snowfall totals in Arizona ranged up to 82 inches at Alpine. Flagstaff AZ reported 23 inches of snow in 24 hours. Other heavier snowfall totals included 20 inches at Daggett NV, 24 inches at Brian Head UT, 24 inches at Red Lodge MT, and 26 inches at Angel Fire NM. Snow at Los Alamos NM pushed their snowfall total for the winter past their previous record of 123.5 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Overnight snow squalls in the Lower Great Lakes Region buried Pulaski NY under 17 inches of snow. Sunny and mild weather prevailed across the rest of the nation. Havre MT reported a record high of 66 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thirteen cities in Florida reported record low temperatures for the date, including Jacksonville with a reading of 24 degrees. Severe cold in Florida claimed three lives, and resulted in 250 to 300 million dollars crop damage. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the central U.S. Dodge City KS reported record high of 80 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Snow spread across the northeastern U.S. Massachusetts was blanketed with 8 to 15 inches of snow, 5 to 10 inches was reported in Rhode Island, and totals in Connecticut ranged up to 10.5 inches at New Canaan. In central New York State, snow and high winds resulted in a number of chain-reaction multiple accidents, and a total of 108 persons were injured. Snow and high winds created white-out conditions along Interstate 87 in Saratoga County NY. Subzero cold was reported from Minnesota through Michigan to northern New England. Duluth MN reported a record low of 26 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2009 - Two Alaskan communities set their all-time records for highest windspeed. St. Paul registers a wind of 91 mph, and on St George Island the wind reaches 94 mph.

 

2010: A powerful nor'easter spread significant snow and windy conditions across the Middle Atlantic region from Thursday, February 25 into Friday, February 26. An area of low pressure developed off the Carolina coast late Wednesday night, February 24, and then strengthened as it tracked northward to near Long Island, New York, by Thursday evening. As low pressure aloft deepened over the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday night into Friday, the surface low retrograded and moved westward into northern New Jersey and southern New York. By February 27, the low pushed into southern New England and gradually weakened over the weekend. Strong wind gusts were measured throughout the Middle Atlantic region due to this coastal storm. Some of the highest wind gusts recorded include 62 mph measured at Cape May, New Jersey; 52 mph at the Atlantic City Marina; 51 mph at the Mount Pocono Airport and Lewes, Delaware; and 50 mph at Dover Air Force Base. In addition, wind gusts of 40 mph or higher were recorded in Philadelphia, Wilmington, and Allentown. Considerable blowing and drifting snow resulted, especially from the Poconos eastward into northern New Jersey. Snow drifts as high as 3 to 5 feet were seen across portions of Warren and Sussex counties in New Jersey. Total accumulations of 20 inches or more were recorded from Morris and Sussex counties in New Jersey, westward into Monroe County, Pennsylvania. In addition, a band of 12 to 18 inches of snow accumulation was measured from Warren and Morris counties in New Jersey westward to Lehigh County, Pennsylvania. In addition to snow that accumulated during the daytime on Thursday, many locations across the region experienced a heavier burst of snow with gusty winds Thursday night into early Friday, thanks to additional moisture wrapped around the low-pressure system. Some areas saw snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour, mainly from northern New Jersey and into the Poconos. Central Park ended the month with 36.9 inches of snow, making this the snowiest month since records began in 1869.

 

2017: An EF1 tornado was confirmed in Goshen and Conway County, MA. This tornado was the first-ever recorded in February for M.A. since records began. T

Lows:

EWR: 10 (1990)
NYC: 1 (1914)
LGA: 12 (1990)
JFK: 12 (1990)

 

Interesting that a couple of weeks after this we were in the mid to upper 80s lol

 

1990 - Snow spread across the northeastern U.S. Massachusetts was blanketed with 8 to 15 inches of snow, 5 to 10 inches was reported in Rhode Island, and totals in Connecticut ranged up to 10.5 inches at New Canaan. In central New York State, snow and high winds resulted in a number of chain-reaction multiple accidents, and a total of 108 persons were injured. Snow and high winds created white-out conditions along Interstate 87 in Saratoga County NY. Subzero cold was reported from Minnesota through Michigan to northern New England. Duluth MN reported a record low of 26 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

Did we get any snow out of that, Tony?

 

2010: A powerful nor'easter spread significant snow and windy conditions across the Middle Atlantic region from Thursday, February 25 into Friday, February 26. An area of low pressure developed off the Carolina coast late Wednesday night, February 24, and then strengthened as it tracked northward to near Long Island, New York, by Thursday evening. As low pressure aloft deepened over the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday night into Friday, the surface low retrograded and moved westward into northern New Jersey and southern New York. By February 27, the low pushed into southern New England and gradually weakened over the weekend. Strong wind gusts were measured throughout the Middle Atlantic region due to this coastal storm. Some of the highest wind gusts recorded include 62 mph measured at Cape May, New Jersey; 52 mph at the Atlantic City Marina; 51 mph at the Mount Pocono Airport and Lewes, Delaware; and 50 mph at Dover Air Force Base. In addition, wind gusts of 40 mph or higher were recorded in Philadelphia, Wilmington, and Allentown. Considerable blowing and drifting snow resulted, especially from the Poconos eastward into northern New Jersey. Snow drifts as high as 3 to 5 feet were seen across portions of Warren and Sussex counties in New Jersey. Total accumulations of 20 inches or more were recorded from Morris and Sussex counties in New Jersey, westward into Monroe County, Pennsylvania. In addition, a band of 12 to 18 inches of snow accumulation was measured from Warren and Morris counties in New Jersey westward to Lehigh County, Pennsylvania. In addition to snow that accumulated during the daytime on Thursday, many locations across the region experienced a heavier burst of snow with gusty winds Thursday night into early Friday, thanks to additional moisture wrapped around the low-pressure system. Some areas saw snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour, mainly from northern New Jersey and into the Poconos. Central Park ended the month with 36.9 inches of snow, making this the snowiest month since records began in 1869.

 

The anniversary of the snowicane!!

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Feb 25-26, 2010

 

20.6 inches of snow

 

What a great storm!  Outside of the March 1888 blizzard (which is ancient history), was the snowicane our latest 20 inch snowstorm in NYC history, Tony?

[LibertyBell]

On 2/24/2025 at 2:39 PM, snowman19 said:

The warm signal is actually increasing as we move closer in time. This is a big change from what we’ve seen since the end of November, when the warm signal would fall apart or get weaker as we got closer. By the Ides, we may very well see temps we haven’t experienced since late October 

We were in the 80s multiple times in the first week or so of November, could we hit that again in March?

[LibertyBell]

21 hours ago, bluewave said:

The excess salt runoff into the local waterways has been a big issue in recent years with the increased road salting. I have actually been on the roads where trucks were leaving a salty dust haze behind them. The local car wash business has been booming up here.

https://planetforward.org/story/road-salt-contaminates-water/

 

 

all kinds of issues with this, we are screwing up our waterways.  Fertilizers washing down into them is another one, it causes those toxic algae blooms in the summer.

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Wonder what the effects on asthma are; we know that the drying Salton Sea and Aral Sea had profound effects on lung health.

This and those fertilizers I mentioned that cause toxic algae blooms in the summer.

[bluewave]

59 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Isn't this well predicted by climate models? The core of the cold will be going to interior mountainous locations while near coastal areas will warm more quickly.

 

Montana is one of the few spots on the planet that got colder instead of warmer with the updated 91-20 climate normals compared to 81-10.

 

 

[psv88]

Despite the warmth the last 3 days, zero signs of any life outside. Not even a bulb coming up. Usually something is making moves by now

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Despite the warmth the last 3 days, zero signs of any life outside. Not even a bulb coming up. Usually something is making moves by now

ground seems partially frozen here-water sitting on top probably has nowhere to go

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

ground seems partially frozen here-water sitting on top probably has nowhere to go

Yea that makes sense. Ground may still be frozen or just thawed out. It has that very soft feel on top, so probably still thawing. I expect some growth by the weekend 

[uofmiami]

8 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yea that makes sense. Ground may still be frozen or just thawed out. It has that very soft feel on top, so probably still thawing. I expect some growth by the weekend 

Ground is frozen good.  I was going to have some french drainage put in to alleviate leak in basement & contractor had said frost line was 10" down.  I'm sure it's only a couple of inches now but need some more warmth before we see anything growing, I'd say going to be another couple of weeks with full sun before growth.

[ag3]

Home station reached 59.9 degrees.

Fabulous day.

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures surged to springlike levels. High temperatures included:

Atlantic City: 62°
Baltimore: 66°
Boston: 53°
Bridgeport: 52°
Islip: 55°
New York City-Central Park: 57°
New York City-JFK Airport: 55°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57°
Newark: 58°
Philadelphia: 59°
Washington, DC: 68°

The very mild weather will prevail through the remainder of the month. High temperatures will top out in the lower and middle 50s tomorrow and Thursday in New York City. Washington, DC will likely see highs reach the middle and upper 60s. Boston could see temperatures reach or exceed 50°. Afterward, high temperatures will cool somewhat to the middle and upper 40s to end February.

A few showers are possible on Thursday and Friday. No meaningful threats for a moderate or larger snowfall in the New York City area are likely through at least the middle of the first week of March.

There remain indications that a major pattern re-alignment could take place starting in the first week of March bringing an end to a persistently cold regime that has predominated through most of the winter. By mid-March, a sustained warmer than normal pattern could be in place. The pattern change will likely follow a brief but fairly sharp cold shot.

A strong PNA ridge is currently in place. Historical experience suggests that the presence of such a ridge at this time of year has been followed by the absence of major snowfalls in the New York City area.

The PNA reached +1.500 on February 19th and remained at or above +1.500 through February 23rd. In all 12 years that saw the PNA reach +1.500 or above on February 15 or later since 1950, the remainder of winter saw no 10" or greater snowstorms. If historic experience holds true yet again, that would make the Winter 2024-2025 the fourth consecutive winter without a 10" or above snowstorm in New York City. The last time that happened was during Winter 2016-2017 through Winter 2019-2020. Most of the 12 winters cited above went on to see some additional measurable snowfall with a few seeing a 6"+ storm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions have peaked and are beginning to fade. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was +8.60 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.292 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.5° (1.4° below normal).

 

[winterwx21]

10 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I thought you said 60F wasn't happening or that I was trolling 

Yeah I was surprised that a few people called you out for saying we'd flirt with 60. You'd think people would know by now that our warmups usually overperform. Not a surprise that we're close to 60 this week. It hit 61 here today. 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Despite the warmth the last 3 days, zero signs of any life outside. Not even a bulb coming up. Usually something is making moves by now

Ground has been frozen for a while 

[SACRUS]

 

I got to 63 and the warmest since Dec 11th (64)

[Rjay]

8 hours ago, FPizz said:

Valentine Nebraska, Feb 20th -33, todays forecast high 69, 102 degree difference if that high pans out

Valentine made it to 71 between hours.  

[wdrag]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Walt could you shift that like 10 miles south, it cuts off part of Long Island.

6-12 inches of snow might be a little underdone.

Mt Pocono in the deep orange with 36-48 inches of snow?

I think this is pretty good... YES Poconos had big early season and damaging snow storm with 10-20+" wet snow.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

I think this is pretty good... YES Poconos had big early season and damaging snow storm with 10-20+" wet snow.

I have just over 19” for the season here so for me it’s accurate. 

[psv88]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I have just over 19” for the season here so for me it’s accurate. 

Same. I’m guessing 12” line goes down to the southern state and then it drops off from there to the beaches. 

[NorthShoreWx]

4 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I have just over 19” for the season here so for me it’s accurate. 

18.3" here (approx 50% of average)

10.8" for February (only 0.9" below average)

27 days with at least 1" of snow cover and 46 days with at least a trace.

No records, but enough presence to remember what snow looks like.

It's all gone now except for sheltered areas and piles.

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I have just over 19” for the season here so for me it’s accurate. 

The 6-12 probably should be more like 10-15 but they don't use that gradation, JFK was on the lower end of the totals, there weren't any reports of under 12.0 anywhere around here.

edit-- for western Nassau county the 12.0 line does go right down to the water, so it does seem to be accurate for here.

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, psv88 said:

Same. I’m guessing 12” line goes down to the southern state and then it drops off from there to the beaches. 

I think JFK was at the lower end of the totals with 12.0.  I'm not sure that the transition is all that smooth since there were some storms in which the extreme south shore did better.

edit-- for western Nassau county the 12.0 line does go right down to the water, so it does seem to be accurate for here.