February 2025

[weatherpruf]

4 hours ago, psv88 said:

26 this morning, up to 43.

Florida is horrible in the summer. It rains every afternoon. Boating is miserable there in the summer. You are being chased by storms and when you are not it’s 7000 degrees and oppressive outside. Truly horrific and most people stay indoors. 
 

the winter in Florida is not great for boating either. It’s usually very windy and unless you are by the keys can often be very cool. 

We sold the family house in Hollywood in 2005 and never looked back. Nothing could make us return.

[winterwx21]

55 degrees here right now. Feels great out there. It'll be interesting to see if we can hit 60 this week. We have a shot tomorrow and Thursday. At least upper 50s. 

[FPizz]

8 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

55 degrees here right now. Feels great out there. It'll be interesting to see if we can hit 60 this week. We have a shot tomorrow and Thursday. At least upper 50s. 

The ice in my backyard area that doesn't get much sun during winter is finally melting.  It took a small hit yesterday, today is melting nicely. Seems like I have a paver issue though, so that isn't good.

[bluewave]

Actually feels pretty good out there today. Getting some melt of the leftover snowpack. As usual, Central NJ is the warmest with some spots already into the mid 50s.

[STORMANLI]

50°

And not raining.

Although there are thin BKN clouds @  around 25,000 feet.

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Once the TPV consolidates in mid-March, we could see our first 70° readings by St Patrick’s Day. 

The warm signal is actually increasing as we move closer in time. This is a big change from what we’ve seen since the end of November, when the warm signal would fall apart or get weaker as we got closer. By the Ides, we may very well see temps we haven’t experienced since late October 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The warm signal is actually increasing as we move closer in time. This is a big change from what we’ve seen since the end of November, when the warm signal would fall apart or get weaker as we got closer. By the Ides, we may very well see temps we haven’t experienced since late October 

Finally the warm calls on twitter will be correct 

 

I thought bamwx had a solid winter forecasting 

[Brian5671]

50 here-feels great

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Finally the warm calls on twitter will be correct 

 

I thought bamwx had a solid winter forecasting 

Yea. I think by the end of the 2nd week of March it’s over. Potential is there for temps to go way above normal by mid-March

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Finally the warm calls on twitter will be correct 

 

I thought bamwx had a solid winter forecasting 

They were good last yr too-nailed the torch winter

[Brian5671]

Just now, snowman19 said:

Yea. I think by the end of the 2nd week of March it’s over. Potential is there for temps to go way above normal by mid-March

Hopefully it stays that way-last yr we were warm first half of march, colder 2nd half

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yea. I think by the end of the 2nd week of March it’s over. Potential is there for temps to go way above normal by mid-March

Agreed. 

[Allsnow]

55 

 

feels great after the cold winter we had 

[weatherpruf]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

55 

 

feels great after the cold winter we had 

Muddy dog paws though....

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

Muddy dog paws though....

Mud season is here 

[cannoliman42]

Very nice here in NYC. Too bad there's still salt all over the roads and it won't be going anywhere anytime soon. I've never seen so much salt for a dusting of snow.

[Brian5671]

13 minutes ago, cannoliman42 said:

Very nice here in NYC. Too bad there's still salt all over the roads and it won't be going anywhere anytime soon. I've never seen so much salt for a dusting of snow.

Thursday maybe some rain showers

[psv88]

50 today. We begin the season where the sea breeze screws us…

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Yea. I think by the end of the 2nd week of March it’s over. Potential is there for temps to go way above normal by mid-March

not much of a call man by the second week of March it’s all over anyway. haha

 

[lee59]

45 here, south wind gusting to 24mph

[SACRUS]

4 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

55 here , warmest since 61 on Dec 29th

I was talking about here in CNJ.

 

NYC was 60 on the Dec 29th and 60 and the Dec 11th.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, cannoliman42 said:

Very nice here in NYC. Too bad there's still salt all over the roads and it won't be going anywhere anytime soon. I've never seen so much salt for a dusting of snow.

The excess salt runoff into the local waterways has been a big issue in recent years with the increased road salting. I have actually been on the roads where trucks were leaving a salty dust haze behind them. The local car wash business has been booming up here.

https://planetforward.org/story/road-salt-contaminates-water/

 

 

[Roger Smith]

LB, lowest winter maxima (Dec 1 to Feb 29):

Winter _________ max __ date(s) ______ Extended period as cold or colder

1880-1881 _____ 53 ___ Feb 12 _______ Nov 6 - Mar 15 (130d)

1904-1905 _____ 53 ___ Jan 1 ________ Nov 21 - Mar 17 (117d)

1872-1873 _____ 54 ___ Jan 17 _______ Nov 15 - Mar 22 (128d)

1874-1875 _____ 54 ___ Feb 24 _______ Nov 30 - Mar 11 (102d)

1882-1883 _____ 54 ___ Feb 4 ________ Nov 14 - Mar 1 (108d)

1903-1904 _____ 54 ___ Dec 13, Jan 23 _ Nov 18 - Mar 23 (126d)

since 1905, following cases are coldest since ...

1935-1936 _____ 56 ___ Dec 9 ________ Nov 29 - Mar 9 (101d)

1963-1964 _____ 55 ___ Dec 8, Jan 25 _ Dec 1 - Mar 1 (92d)

1976-1977 _____ 58 ___ Feb 25 _______ Nov 28 - Mar 4 (97d)

1977-1978 _____ 58 ___ Jan 9 _________Nov 18 - Mar 20 (123 d)

1981-1982 _____ 58 ___ Dec 2, Jan 4, Feb 1 _ Nov 28 - Mar 11 (104d)

1986-1987 _____ 59 ___ Dec 3 ________ Nov 27 - Mar 6 (100d) 

2003-2004 ____ 59 ___ Feb 29 _______ Nov 29 - Feb 29 (93d)

... ... ... 

additional winters no max 60 or above not in above list

56 _ 1883-1884, 1909-1910, 1910-1911, 1926-1927

57 _ 1870-1871, 1871-1872, 1888-1889, 1894-1895, 1896-1897, 1898-1899, 1907-1908, 1922-1923

58 _ 1876-1877, 1887-1888, 1892-1893, 1913-1914, 1925-1926, 1930-1931, 1933-1934, 1944-1945, 1961-1962

59 _ 1877-1878, 1890-1891, 1893-1894, 1899-1900, 1900-1901, 1917-1918, 1947-1948, 1955-1956, 1957-1958

... a total of 43 winters (no max 60 or above)

... five since 1975 and eleven since 1940

 

Also, longest intervals no max 60 or above (incl all >120d and recent or 53, 54 max cases)

Winter __________ interval

1894-1895 ______ 156d _Nov 4 - Apr 8

1880-1881 ______ 155d _Nov 6 - Apr 9

1876-1877 ______ 151d _Nov 15 - Apr 14

1871-1872 ______ 148d _Nov 2 - Mar 28

1899-1900 ______ 147d _Nov 10 - Apr 5 (weak, sev'l 59F in Dec)

1890-1891 ______ 145d _Nov 19 - Apr 12

1872-1873 ______ 142d _Nov 13 - Apr 3

1900-1901 ______ 136d _Nov 27 - Apr 11

1907-1908 ______ 136d _Nov 11 - Mar 25 

1904-1905 ______ 134d _Nov 4 - Mar 17

1892-1893 ______ 133d _Nov 19 - Mar 31

1930-1931 ______ 132d _Nov 23 - Apr 3

1910-1911 _______ 131d _Nov 11 - Mar 21

1887-1888 ______ 129d _Nov 29 -Apr 5

1903-1904 ______ 129d _Nov 18 - Mar 25

1925-1926 ______ 128d _Nov 17 - Mar 24

1947-1948 ______ 128d _Nov 9 - Mar 15

1961-1962 ______ 127d _Nov 18 - Mar 24

1874-1875 ______ 126d _Nov 24 - Mar 29 

1957-1958 ______ 126d _Nov 30 - Apr 4

1977-1978 ______ 125d _Nov 18 - Mar 22 

1893-1894 _____ 123d _Nov 3 - Mar 5

1888-1889 ______ 122d _Nov 11 - Mar 12

1913-1914 ______ 122d _ Nov 24 - Mar 25

1981-1982 ______ 122d _Nov 28 - Mar 29

1898-1899 ______ 120d _Nov 12 - Mar 11

(recent or very cold only below ... a lot of 56-59F cases were 100-119 days below 60F)

1882-1883 ______ 108d _Nov 14 - Mar 1 

1935-1936 ______ 108d _Nov 29 - Mar 16 

1986-1987 ______ 100d _Nov 27 - Mar 6  

1976-1977 _______ 97d _Nov 28 - Mar 4

1963-1964 _______ 96d _Nov 30 - Mar 4

2003-2004 ______ 93d _Nov 29 - Feb 29

 

 

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The excess salt runoff into the local waterways has been a big issue in recent years with the increased road salting. I have actually been on the roads where trucks were leaving a salty dust haze behind them. The local car wash business has been booming up here.

https://planetforward.org/story/road-salt-contaminates-water/

 

 

Wonder what the effects on asthma are; we know that the drying Salton Sea and Aral Sea had profound effects on lung health.

[donsutherland1]

Mild weather will prevail through the remainder of the month. The warmth will crest from tomorrow through Thursday. High temperatures will top out in the lower and perhaps middle 50s during that time in New York City. Washington, DC will likely see highs reach the lower and middle 60s. Boston could reach or exceed 50° at least once. Afterward, high temperatures will cool somewhat to the middle and upper 40s to end February.

No meaningful threats for a moderate or larger snowfall in the New York City area are likely through the remainder of February.

There remain indications that a major pattern re-alignment could take place starting in the first week of March bringing an end to a persistently cold regime that has predominated through most of the winter. By mid-month, a sustained warmer than normal pattern could be in place. The pattern change will likely follow a brief but fairly sharp cold shot.

A powerful PNA ridge is currently in place. Historical experience suggests that the presence of such a ridge at this time of year has been followed by the absence of major snowfalls in the New York City area.

The PNA reached +1.500 on February 19th and remained at or above +1.500 through February 23rd. In all 12 years that saw the PNA reach +1.500 or above on February 15 or later since 1950, the remainder of winter saw no 10" or greater snowstorms. If historic experience holds true yet again, that would make the Winter 2024-2025 the fourth consecutive winter without a 10" or above snowstorm in New York City. The last time that happened was during Winter 2016-2017 through Winter 2019-2020. Most of the 12 winters cited above went on to see some additional measurable snowfall with a few seeing a 6"+ storm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions have peaked and are beginning to fade. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was +11.58 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.936 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.2° (1.7° below normal).

 

[Brian5671]

Still 40 degrees here at 8:30pm

[ag3]

Today could hit 60, IMO

[SnoSki14]

8 minutes ago, ag3 said:

Today could hit 60, IMO

Not just today either. 

[MJO812]

27 minutes ago, ag3 said:

Today could hit 60, IMO

Too early for this crap

[bluewave]

One of the more dramatic shifts from winter to spring for parts of the U.S.