February 2025

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Would eventually get grazed with 3 - 5 inches of snow in (1987) by the 23rd from that storm.  Very active winter but suppressed tracks.

Yes, much more snow even slightly to our south in Monmouth County where they had around 55 inches while we had around 25 inches (near normal.)

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

How about we average every hour of the day instead of just the high and low? Then we would have a much better index of the temperatures on a particular day.

I'm leery of using overnight temperatures because that's often the result of higher humidity and cloud cover rather than actual heat.

I do see your point of using frequency and hourly readings though, it creates a more accurate weighed average.

 

[JustinRP37]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

This is part of my argument for why summer heat should be judged by number of 90 degree and higher highs and why winter cold should be judged by number of 32 degree and lower highs.

 

This would be so incredibly terrible scientifically. Technically 89 degrees with a few point of 78 holds much more thermal energy than 98 and a few point of 48 thanks to the high specific heat of water. 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

This would be so incredibly terrible scientifically. Technically 89 degrees with a few point of 78 holds much more thermal energy than 98 and a few point of 48 thanks to the high specific heat of water. 

No it's not (and that low of a dew point never happens in our region with a high temperature of 98), Mt Holly said this earlier in a post too.  We're not talking about thermal energy, we're talking about more moisture in the air causing the artificially higher low temps. Actual high temperatures measure the average amount maximum amount of heat.  89 degrees with a dew point of 78 might feel worse but technically a temperature of 104 is much hotter regardless of humidity.  Dew point does not measure heat or temperature, it measures moisture.   Plus you can have temperatures over 100 degrees with dew points over 70 too which is what we had in our hottest summers (1991, 1993, 1999, 2002, 2010, 2011.) 98 with a dew point of 48 never happens here in my experience.  The least we would get is a temperature of 98 with a dew point in the 60s (to counter your example.)

Plus you're disregarding the fact that the lower temperatures are due to an onshore wind, not a *hotter* wind.  I'm pretty sure we are cycling towards a downsloping westerly wind pattern which will cause higher temperatures and lower dewpoints though, so that point is moot-- so I predict a return to the summers of the 90s to 2002 and the early 10s starting this summer.

 

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Thru the 21st

 

JFK: + 0.9
EWR: - 1.5
LGA: -2.8
NYC: -3.1

Ill call bullshit on the JFK number. Their numbers have been off all winter.

And we havent been landing on the 22s and 13s a lot…so the wind off the water argument doesnt hold. 

[the_other_guy]

Can we start warming up the fat lady? Aside from the first week of March, I think we are pulling out of this one…

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, eduggs said:

the daily high and low temperature even all that representative or comparable? Should it matter if a low temperature was achieved after a brief but precipitous drop vs. a constant temperature for 16 straight hours?

The total winter hours below freezing have been steadily decreasing  in NJ. This winter has been about as average as you can get. So we can say that the hourly temperatures closely track the daily highs, lows, and averages. 5 out of the 10 lowest total hours below freezing have occurred in the last decade. 8 out of the 10  highest years occurred prior to 2000.

 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=159&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&var=tmpf&dir=below&thres=32&month=winter&sdate=1001&edate=0430&year=2025&syear=1920&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

[JustinRP37]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

No it's not (and that low of a dew point never happens in our region with a high temperature of 98), Mt Holly said this earlier in a post too.  We're not talking about thermal energy, we're talking about more moisture in the air causing the artificially higher low temps. Actual high temperatures measure the average amount maximum amount of heat.  89 degrees with a dew point of 78 might feel worse but technically a temperature of 104 is much hotter regardless of humidity.  Dew point does not measure heat or temperature, it measures moisture.   Plus you can have temperatures over 100 degrees with dew points over 70 too which is what we had in our hottest summers (1991, 1993, 1999, 2002, 2010, 2011.) 98 with a dew point of 48 never happens here in my experience.  The least we would get is a temperature of 98 with a dew point in the 60s (to counter your example.)

Plus you're disregarding the fact that the lower temperatures are due to an onshore wind, not a *hotter* wind.  I'm pretty sure we are cycling towards a downsloping westerly wind pattern which will cause higher temperatures and lower dewpoints though, so that point is moot-- so I predict a return to the summers of the 90s to 2002 and the early 10s starting this summer.

 

With all do respect as an environmental scientist, this is not true. We have had days in the high 90s with 50-60 dew points, even last year we did. Most of our record highs are with lower dew points. The reason why moisture in the air causes the higher low temps is because of the thermal energy of water vapor. A temperature of 104 is hotter, but if dry, it is much 'easier' to cool off. That is also what fuels storms, heat + humidity. It is also why those lows remain much higher. Throwing out that data because you think it is bogus is not wise. Sure super high temperatures are interesting to see, but a summer with very high humidity and warm overnight lows is telling in and off itself.

[SACRUS]

37 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Ill call bullshit on the JFK number. Their numbers have been off all winter.

And we havent been landing on the 22s and 13s a lot…so the wind off the water argument doesnt hold. 

Adding 

 

ISP : -0.8
 

NJ - EPA
TTN: -3.1
MMU: -1.7
ABE: -1.8
ACY: -1.8
PHL: -1.5

[SACRUS]

 

The trough is in the east Mar 2/3 - 5/6th and looks below normal that stretch with some colder departures 3-5th

 

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

With all do respect as an environmental scientist, this is not true. We have had days in the high 90s with 50-60 dew points, even last year we did. Most of our record highs are with lower dew points. The reason why moisture in the air causes the higher low temps is because of the thermal energy of water vapor. A temperature of 104 is hotter, but if dry, it is much 'easier' to cool off. That is also what fuels storms, heat + humidity. It is also why those lows remain much higher. Throwing out that data because you think it is bogus is not wise. Sure super high temperatures are interesting to see, but a summer with very high humidity and warm overnight lows is telling in and off itself.

Depends on what you call *lower* I dont consider dewpoints in the 60s to be comfortable, especially with temperatures around 100.

And again, like I said thermal energy isn't the same thing as actual heat.  Temperature is defined as the average amount of heat.  The National Weather Service ranks our hottest summers by number of 90 degree days.  If you look up hottest summers in NYC this is the measure you'll find. 

I agree what with you said about lower moisture being needed for extreme temperatures too, it's why our hottest summers are also our driest summers (it states that at the link I posted below too.)  It takes more energy for the sun to heat up a wet ground (and wet air) than it does for the sun to heat up dry ground (and dry air.)

 

I understand what high heat indices do to the body but it's like wind chill, it's not actual temperature.  The highest heat index we actually have had in the city was the one recorded in July 1995 from what I recall, it was a combination of a temperature of 103 degrees at LGA and a dew point of 82 if I remember correctly.

No data is being thrown out, we're just ranking hottest summers by highest temperature.  Something else that's been commented on in previous years is that we have fewer long heatwaves than we used to, our last 7+ day heatwave was back in 2002.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/heatwaves

 

I love this list because it corresponds well with my hottest summers list.

 

https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2012/07/revisiting-new-york-citys-hottest-summers-.html

 

• New York's five hottest summers (since 1869) have all occurred since 1960: 2010, 1966, 1993, 1983 and 1999.  The fact that just one of the years is from this century may surprise some since these years were so warm worldwide.  

• Two of New York's five hottest summers were also extremely dry.  1966 had the the driest summer on record, with every month receiving less than two inches of rain (1.17" in June; 1.25" in July and 1.89" in August).  The summer of 1999 was the fourth driest and featured the second driest June (0.59") and the driest July on record (0.44").  The combined rainfall of those two months was barely more than one inch (average rainfall in June and July is close to eight-and-a-half inches).

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The total winter hours below freezing have been steadily decreasing  in NJ. This winter has been about as average as you can get. So we can say that the hourly temperatures closely track the daily highs, lows, and averages. 5 out of the 10 lowest total hours below freezing have occurred in the last decade. 8 out of the 10  highest years occurred prior to 2000.

 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=159&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&var=tmpf&dir=below&thres=32&month=winter&sdate=1001&edate=0430&year=2025&syear=1920&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

Yes, I consider this an average winter too in terms of temperature, what makes it feel really cold is that wind.

 

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, I consider this an average winter too in terms of temperature, what makes it feel really cold is that wind.

 

How has this been an average winter when all three months are going to be below average temperature wise? 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

How has this been an average winter when all three months are going to be below average temperature wise? 

Just by the current warmer 30 year record and even by that standard JFK has been warmer than normal (just barely so within the envelop of average).  We've only had 9 officially *cold* days this winter too (days with a high of 32 or lower).

 

[Sampson]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

How has this been an average winter when all three months are going to be below average temperature wise? 

I agree. It’s the coldest winter in a decade. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Sampson said:

I agree. It’s the coldest winter in a decade. 

It's the coldest since 2017-18 going by number of cold days (highs of 32 or below).

The coldest this decade though (which doesn't say much about this decade.)

[psv88]

19 this morning. Lots of teens for lows this winter. Happy we are transitioning to spring slowly starting today. 

[LibertyBell]

While looking up heatwaves I found this, wow how did people put up with this all way back in 1896?

We post about ancient snowstorms all the time, here's an ancient heatwave... Teddy Roosevelt was NYC Police Commissioner haha.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1896_Eastern_North_America_heat_wave

 

The 1896 eastern North America heat wave was a 10-day heat wave in New York City, Boston, Newark and Chicago that killed about 1,500 people in August 1896.^[1][2][3]

History

[edit]

There were ten days of temperatures at least 90 °F (32 °C) with high humidity and little breeze.^[4] The temperatures in New York did not drop below 72 °F (22 °C) at night, with three consecutive nights at 80 °F (27 °C) or above. It killed more than the New York City draft riots and the Great Chicago Fire combined.^[2] A majority of the deaths were of working-class men in their twenties who performed manual labor.

The New York City Public Works Commissioner ordered that his workers' shifts be modified so they would not be working during midday, and he had fire hydrants opened to cool people on the street. Theodore Roosevelt, then New York City Police Commissioner, distributed free ice from local police stations. After accidental deaths from people falling off the roofs they were sleeping on, the New York City Parks Department allowed people to sleep in parks overnight.^[1][2]

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

While looking up heatwaves I found this, wow how did people put up with this all way back in 1896?

We post about ancient snowstorms all the time, here's an ancient heatwave... Teddy Roosevelt was NYC Police Commissioner haha.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1896_Eastern_North_America_heat_wave

 

The 1896 eastern North America heat wave was a 10-day heat wave in New York City, Boston, Newark and Chicago that killed about 1,500 people in August 1896.^[1][2][3]

History

[edit]

There were ten days of temperatures at least 90 °F (32 °C) with high humidity and little breeze.^[4] The temperatures in New York did not drop below 72 °F (22 °C) at night, with three consecutive nights at 80 °F (27 °C) or above. It killed more than the New York City draft riots and the Great Chicago Fire combined.^[2] A majority of the deaths were of working-class men in their twenties who performed manual labor.

The New York City Public Works Commissioner ordered that his workers' shifts be modified so they would not be working during midday, and he had fire hydrants opened to cool people on the street. Theodore Roosevelt, then New York City Police Commissioner, distributed free ice from local police stations. After accidental deaths from people falling off the roofs they were sleeping on, the New York City Parks Department allowed people to sleep in parks overnight.^[1][2]

https://www.life.com/history/heat-wave-photos-1950s/

 

this one is more well known

 

The summer of 1953 in New York City was torturous. The temperature was in the 90s (or higher) every day between July 15 and 21, and again between Aug. 24 and Sept. 4 a record-setting 12 days in a row. And that’s not even accounting for other  90-plus days in between.

[EastonSN+]

23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Just by the current warmer 30 year record and even by that standard JFK has been warmer than normal (just barely so within the envelop of average).  We've only had 9 officially *cold* days this winter too (days with a high of 32 or lower).

 

Doesn't matter it's still below average. JFK temperatures are suspect in my opinion they're way off the rest of the airports and Central Park.

[JustinRP37]

35 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Depends on what you call *lower* I dont consider dewpoints in the 60s to be comfortable, especially with temperatures around 100.

And again, like I said thermal energy isn't the same thing as actual heat.  Temperature is defined as the average amount of heat.  The National Weather Service ranks our hottest summers by number of 90 degree days.  If you look up hottest summers in NYC this is the measure you'll find. 

I agree what with you said about lower moisture being needed for extreme temperatures too, it's why our hottest summers are also our driest summers (it states that at the link I posted below too.)  It takes more energy for the sun to heat up a wet ground (and wet air) than it does for the sun to heat up dry ground (and dry air.)

 

I understand what high heat indices do to the body but it's like wind chill, it's not actual temperature.  The highest heat index we actually have had in the city was the one recorded in July 1995 from what I recall, it was a combination of a temperature of 103 degrees at LGA and a dew point of 82 if I remember correctly.

No data is being thrown out, we're just ranking hottest summers by highest temperature.  Something else that's been commented on in previous years is that we have fewer long heatwaves than we used to, our last 7+ day heatwave was back in 2002.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/heatwaves

 

I love this list because it corresponds well with my hottest summers list.

 

https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2012/07/revisiting-new-york-citys-hottest-summers-.html

 

• New York's five hottest summers (since 1869) have all occurred since 1960: 2010, 1966, 1993, 1983 and 1999.  The fact that just one of the years is from this century may surprise some since these years were so warm worldwide.  

• Two of New York's five hottest summers were also extremely dry.  1966 had the the driest summer on record, with every month receiving less than two inches of rain (1.17" in June; 1.25" in July and 1.89" in August).  The summer of 1999 was the fourth driest and featured the second driest June (0.59") and the driest July on record (0.44").  The combined rainfall of those two months was barely more than one inch (average rainfall in June and July is close to eight-and-a-half inches).

I'm merely pushing back on the people saying average temperatures don't matter. Sure a summer can have 30+ 90 degree days, but if it cools off to the 50s/60s each night with low humidity that isn't as bad as a summer that has overnight lows in the upper 70s with 70 dew points. People died back in the day from lack of air conditioning and infrastructure. We won't get heat waves anymore with dew points in the 50s because of our environment today, but it does matter. Merely looking at the number of 90+ degree days is not a good representation of 'climate' that is why we use averages. That is all I was pointing out. 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I'm merely pushing back on the people saying average temperatures don't matter. Sure a summer can have 30+ 90 degree days, but if it cools off to the 50s/60s each night with low humidity that isn't as bad as a summer that has overnight lows in the upper 70s with 70 dew points. People died back in the day from lack of air conditioning and infrastructure. We won't get heat waves anymore with dew points in the 50s because of our environment today, but it does matter. Merely looking at the number of 90+ degree days is not a good representation of 'climate' that is why we use averages. That is all I was pointing out. 

Hey did you read about that super heat wave back in 1896? I was genuinely shocked to read about it, 1,500+ people died it was over 90 for highs every night and 72 or higher every night for lows both for 10 days consecutively including three days in a low of lows in the 80s.  That must have been hell to live through before we even had electricity.

I don't think just looking at averages is good enough either, we probably need something that combines both.  That site I mentioned actually has a great way of doing it that measures both. This addresses some of your points and still preserves my memory of the summers I consider the hottest. There's a chart on this page too.  The reason why concentration of 90 degree days addresses your point better, I think, is because if you have many days in a row at or above 90 this usually means that the lows are higher than 70 too (see 1896 as the first example of this.)

 

https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2013/07/how-hot-is-hot-concentration-of-90-degree-days.html

 

Looking at the number of 90-degree days as the sole criterion for gauging how hot a summer has been is a fairly standard measure, but it can be misleading.  For instance, it doesn't take into account the fact that in some years 90-degree days are spread over considerably more weeks than other years.  That is the subject of this analysis.  For my purposes I'll be referring to the period between a year's first and last 90-degree day as the "window".  New York's typical 90-degree window (based on 1980-2020) is a few days shy of 13 weeks, starting in late May and continuing thru late August.  During this window, one in five days, on average, will see a high in the 90s or triple digits. 

 

Looking at records dating back to 1872, the most 90-degree days in a year has been 39 - and it happened twice - in 1991 and 1993.  However, while 1991's occurred over a lengthy span of 23 weeks, 1993's were more concentrated, occurring over five fewer weeks.  1991's hot days, in other words, were more "diluted".  While 1991 experienced 90-degree temperatures during 24% of its "window", 1993's corresponding figure was 31%. 

Yet, neither of these hot summers come close to 1999.  Although that year had ten fewer 90-degree days, they were concentrated in a sixty-day window.  That means that close to half of the days during its 90-degree window were in the 90s.  And 1988 wasn't far behind, with 33 90-degree days over 77 days (43% concentration).  Four other years with a considerable number of 90-degree days (24 or more) also had a higher concentration of 90-degree temperatures than either 1991 or 1993.  So, you be the judge over which summer was hotter.  

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Doesn't matter it's still below average. JFK temperatures are suspect in my opinion they're way off the rest of the airports and Central Park.

you can use a variety of metrics like number of cold (below 32 degree highs).  The predominantly westerly wind is the reason, it's a downsloping wind so it's warmer here (we see this in the summer too when a westerly wind makes JFK hotter than the park.)

Also, we haven't had any lows in the single digits or lower-- this is an important component of our colder winters.

 

[psv88]

The warm waters of the Great Lakes clearly kept JFK warmer 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thought you might find this interesting-- ironic this was published in 2010, our current record hottest summer.

 

https://www.npr.org/2010/08/11/129127924/the-heat-wave-of-1896-and-the-rise-of-roosevelt?ft=1&f=1022

 

The Heat Wave Of 1896 And The Rise Of Roosevelt

August 11, 201012:00 PM ET

Heard on Fresh Air

 

Listen· 20:5920-Minute ListenPlaylist

TranscriptToggle more options

 

Enlarge this image

As many as 100,000 people were crammed into tenement-style dwellings in New York's Lower East Side in the latter half of the 19th century. The overcrowded, poorly ventilated tenements became ovens during New York's 1896 heat wave, which killed nearly 1,500 people. Above, the yard of a tenement at Park Avene and 107th Street, circa 1900.

Library of Congress Prints and Photographs

During the summer of 1896, a 10-day heat wave killed nearly 1,500 people, many of them tenement-dwellers, across New York City. Many thousands of people were crammed into tenements on the Lower East Side, with no air conditioning, little circulating air and no running water. Families were packed together -- with five to six people sharing a single room. Extra space on the floor was rented out to single men -- many of whom worked six days a week doing manual labor out in the sun.

The funny thing about 1896 is that it had an extremely snowy back end of winter and holds the record for snowiest March on record with over 30 inches of snow (and that was the snowiest month on record and the only month with 30 inches or more of snow at NYC until February 2010 (36.0) and then January 2011 (36.9)

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, I consider this an average winter too in terms of temperature, what makes it feel really cold is that wind.

 

Yeah, strongest average gusts on record for JFK since January 1st made it feel much colder. My guess is that the record downslope component at JFK is why they were locally warmer than the other sites. Since dowslope flow off the moraine is always warmest closer to JFK. Plus the winds staying up at night prevented them from the radiational cooling they usually get relative to the other nearby city sites. 
 

Data for December 1, 2024 through February 22, 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	MONTAUK AIRPORT	WBAN	38.1
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	35.8
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	35.0
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	34.2
NY	PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL	ICAO	34.2
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	34.1
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	33.6
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	33.5
CT	NEW HAVEN TWEED AP	WBAN	33.4
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	33.1
NY	ORIENT POINT STATE PARK	COOP	33.1
NY	FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	33.0
NY	SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT	WBAN	33.0

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, strongest average gusts on record for JFK made it feel much colder. My guess is that the record downslope component at JFK is why they were locally warmer than the other sites. Since dowslope flow off the moraine is always warmest closer to JFK. Plus the winds staying up at night prevented them from the radiational cooling they usually get relative to the other nearby city sites. 
 

 

Yes this is what I wrote too, it's why 2010 had a hotter summer at JFK than at Central Park, there was consistent downslope.  We need a dry downsloping wind to have a very hot summer here with many 90 degree temps (over 30) and even 100+ degrees.  Which is why I think this summer will be hotter than the last few have been here.

I didn't know about the highest average gusts wow.  I hope those offshore wind farms are operational now to take advantage of all this wind power!

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, strongest average gusts on record for JFK made it feel much colder. My guess is that the record downslope component at JFK is why they were locally warmer than the other sites. Since dowslope flow off the moraine is always warmest closer to JFK. Plus the winds staying up at night prevented them from the radiational cooling they usually get relative to the other nearby city sites. 
 

 

It's interesting how 1995-96 is both our most snowiest and least windiest winter on record too!!

[EastonSN+]

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

you can use a variety of metrics like number of cold (below 32 degree highs).  The predominantly westerly wind is the reason, it's a downsloping wind so it's warmer here (we see this in the summer too when a westerly wind makes JFK hotter than the park.)

Also, we haven't had any lows in the single digits or lower-- this is an important component of our colder winters.

 

I guess what is cold or warm is ultimately determined by the individual. To me this is a cold winter to others maybe not so much guess there's no way to all agree on a measurement. Some may think it's hot cause we are probably+5 from 1812.

[psv88]

42 today, forecast was 36. Beautiful out there. Remaining snowpack melting away