February 2025

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Because a recent 10 year average would mask the warming even more since the base state is so much higher than it used to be. January was only considered cold here since we moved the goal posts to make it easier to get a colder month. If we left the original climo in place, then it would have been a warmer January in the Northeast.

 

Why do we care about whether or not we mask warming? I thought the purpose was just a show if a temperature is warmer or colder than an average temperature given a standard baseline in the current time frame we live in? Perhaps it's easier if the departures from average are given on three baselines of 10 years 30 years and 50 years at one Time to cover multiple generations? 

[North and West]

Plenty of places to live without seasons. Phoenix being a popular destination without humidity and clouds! Also still close to epic skiing. 

I didn’t intend to single you out; more so, people just enjoy complaining with like-minded people. Hope that makes sense.


.

[dseagull]

Its about time to comb through some historical data and current teleconnections to see what the spring transition season may hold in store for us.  

 

Spring coastals are more impactful for shore communities than most pay attention to.  Cold and rainy springs (with wind on weekends) have an economic impact that goes unrecognized unless you live here or work in part of the economy that depends on "good-weather" weekends leading up to summer.  Another side hustle of mine is boat hauling to and from ramps and yards.   Despite the cold winter, I already have plenty of calls from folks looking to schedule launching their boats.   They always ask what i think would be the best day. 

 

My response is usually, "i don't have a crystal ball for a month out, but if you like to gamble, it's a fun game."   Not much snow down here on barnegat bay, and sadly I'm getting accustomed to the less snowy winters.  Would have loved 1 big KU event, but I'm not sure I'll be around for another 10-15 year snowy pattern again during my lifetime.   The cold didn't seem particularly brutal to me this year, but the duration was absolutely recognizable.   Hunting was stellar, especially with the drought.   

 

Now im ready for my nine months of 24/7 work... and thunderstorms.  It was April 1, 2023 when I had to rescue a stranded vessel with two crew under a tornado warning, which wound up only producing quarter size hail and some gusts to 65 in my exact location.  When you basically live on the water all summer, lightning begins to fascinate and scare the chit out of you at the same time.  I'm looking forward to getting back to my "office."

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

So then why not use a 50-year average as a baseline or 100 year average? 

I just don't get the point of continuously caveating that it was something different in the past as that is the past it does not affect the present. It's either warmer or colder compared to a certain baseline. If someone has to put in extra work to continue to say "but in the past this would have happened" then it's not efficient. If a 30-year baseline is not correct because someone has to keep caveating over and over again then something needs to change. Either change the baseline to be shorter like 10 years to be more relevant to the current time or expand the baseline so that someone doesn't have to continually say over and over again that it was different in the past. 

I just don't see the added value of caveating that it was different in the past than a current departure from average.

I have a better idea.  Let's use the 30 year average we are all used to, from the era we grew up in.  1951-80 or 1961-90 or both averaged out.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

How do people on here not enjoy nice cold mornings? You feel invigorated when you take that deep breath in. Very weird how once we get to February some are just like naw let's torch. Spring is our most miserable season here from super hot to cold to many many days of cloudy and gloom with mist and 40 degrees. I'm an extreme guy give me winter and summer. I'm glad Killington's snowiest month is March and they are already ahead of Park City for snowfall this year. I think I need to move further north.

Cold is fine, the wind really sucks.  

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

30 year temperature averages began to be used when we had a stable climate. So you could look at a departure and know whether it was actually warmer or colder. In a rapidly warming climate each 10 year update masks the warming process. This is why rankings make more sense. It takes larger and larger cold departures to get a top 10 or top 20 coldest month and a smaller positive departure for a top 10 or top 20 warmest month. 
It’s why the Northeast has had over 50 top 10 warmest months since 2010 and only 1 top 10 coldest. By just looking at the 1991-2020 departures you would miss this key distinction. So we should probably just use the 1951-1980 base period in order for the rankings to match the departures like NASA does.

 

 

Agree we need a static baseline and I would pick either 1951-80 or 1961-90 or average out those two.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

I just don't think it holds any value to caveat that it was colder in the past. For instance if a reader looked and saw that we are below average temperature wise I don't think they would say well I wonder if we would still be below average 200 years ago (exaggeration).

The 30-year averages take care of themselves as they adjust as the decades roll on so there's really no need to compare to the past which is just that the past.

It's kind of like saying well the Yankees won the world series this year with a great hitting team however this Yankee lineup is nowhere near the 1927 lineup. What's the point in stating it?

We dont care about 1927 because none of us were here in 1927.  We care about the period of time we grew up in-- and by the way I always compare the current malfunctioning teams vs the great 1990s Yankees and how much more complete those teams were (didn't strike out much, hit the ball to al fields, higher contact rate, etc.)

And for the record, the 1998 Yankees would have absolutely --DESTROYED-- the 1927 Yankees.

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

We really needed the much warmer 1991-2020 climate normals in order to finally get a colder winter across the area. The 7 station average is currently -0.9° since December 1st. In the old days this would have been an average winter to slightly warmer than average. Reminds me of the cooler summers in recent years which would have been considered a little warmer than the older era climate normals. 
 

EWR….-0.7°

NYC….-1.8°

LGA….-1.6°

JFK…..+0.8°

HPN…..-1.2°

BDR…..-1.2°

ISP……-0.8°

AVG….-0.9°

the summers were most definitely hotter in the 90s and the early 10s.  I go by number of 90 and 100 degree days, not minimum temperatures, which are more a function of humidity not heat (unless the high temperature is also very high.)

Why is JFK so much warmer, must be the westerly wind, this is a good sign for a hot and dry summer too.

[JustinRP37]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Cold is fine, the wind really sucks.  

I honestly can't remember a winter with as many wind holds on ski lifts as this year. 

[EastonSN+]

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I have a better idea.  Let's use the 30 year average we are all used to, from the era we grew up in.  1951-80 or 1961-90 or both averaged out.

I just think if it's above average now or below average now that's all that matters whether we put in a 30-year average or a 50 or average or a 10 year average. Today, is it warmer or colder than average. I don't think there's a need to compare to the past as the environment is always changing through history and will continue to do so, so one inherently knows it's going to be different for various reasons. I know a colder than average temperature today is not going to be colder than average during the ice age, and likely would be way below average during the formation of the Earth. 

Can't live in the past man. The past is gone.

[guinness77]

March 2nd, baby. My body is ready. 
 

 

to be disappointed 

[Brian5671]

14 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I honestly can't remember a winter with as many wind holds on ski lifts as this year. 

And March is usually a windy month too...

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I just think if it's above average now or below average now that's all that matters whether we put in a 30-year average or a 50 or average or a 10 year average. Today, is it warmer or colder than average. I don't think there's a need to compare to the past as the environment is always changing through history and will continue to do so, so one inherently knows it's going to be different for various reasons. I know a colder than average temperature today is not going to be colder than average during the ice age, and likely would be way below average during the formation of the Earth. 

Can't live in the past man. The past is gone.

Then there is no point keeping averages at all though, because averages are all about comparing to the past, even if it's the 10 years ago past.

 

[Allsnow]

 

[Allsnow]

 

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Then there is no point keeping averages at all though, because averages are all about comparing to the past, even if it's the 10 years ago past.

 

Yeah but you want to know if it's above or below average right that's the whole star of the conversation. My point was taking an average from the past not taking the current average. 

[bluewave]

42 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the summers were most definitely hotter in the 90s and the early 10s.  I go by number of 90 and 100 degree days, not minimum temperatures, which are more a function of humidity not heat (unless the high temperature is also very high.)

Why is JFK so much warmer, must be the westerly wind, this is a good sign for a hot and dry summer too.

Only if you focus on coastal sections like JFK where the sea breezes have been dominating over the last decade. New Jersey has had multiple seasons with over 40 days reaching 90°. Plus they nearly got to 10 days reaching 100° back in 2022 if the dry pattern lasted a little longer.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Only if you focus on coastal sections like JFK where the sea breezes have been dominating over the last decade. New Jersey has had multiple seasons with over 40 days reaching 90°. Plus they nearly got to 10 days reaching 100° back in 2022 if the dry pattern lasted a little longer.

But it's hard to find a hotter summer at Newark than 1993, that was a historic heatwave with 9 days over 100 including 5 in a row.  We haven't seen that since, they also set the record for most 90 and 100 degree days then (new records set in 2010.)

We definitely need that dry pattern and I feel like we'll beat those records from the 90s and early 10s, with our new dry pattern.  The consistency of the westerlies since last year is very telling.

 

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

I like this, measuring winter cold by number of 32 degree or lower highs and measuring summer heat by number of 90 degree or higher highs.

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah but you want to know if it's above or below average right that's the whole star of the conversation. My point was taking an average from the past not taking the current average. 

I dont like averages anyway, I feel like they dumb down the finer details which are more important.

I like measuring winter cold by number of 32 degree or lower highs and measuring summer heat by number of 90 degree or higher highs.

[bluewave]

This was a great example of gradient patterns favoring areas to our north.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

36 so far chilly, breezy.  Dry weekend warmup Sunday.  

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 80 (2018)
NYC: 78 (2018)
LGA: 79 (2018)
JFK: 65 (2018)


Lows:

EWR: 6 (1959)
NYC: 5 (1968)
LGA: 6 (1968)
JFK: 5 (1968)

 

Historical:

1918 - A spectacular chinook wind at Granville, ND, caused the temperature to spurt from a morning low of 33 degrees below zero to an afternoon high of 50 degrees above zero. (David Ludlum)

1935 - Frequent duststorms occurred in eastern Colorado during the month, forcing schools to close and people to stay indoors. A fatality occurred on this date when two section cars collided on the railroad near Arriba CO, due to poor visibility. (The Weather Channel)

 

1936 - The temperature at Langdon, ND, climbed above zero for the first time in six weeks. Readings never got above freezing during all three winter months. (David Ludlum)

1971 - An outbreak of tornadoes hit northeastern Louisiana and northern and central Mississippi. The tornadoes claimed 121 lives, including 110 in Mississippi. Three tornadoes accounted for 118 of the deaths. There are 1600 persons injured, 900 homes were destroyed or badly damaged, and total damage was 19 million dollars. (David Ludlum)

1971 - Elk City, OK, was buried under 36 inches of snow to establish a 24 hour snowfall record for the state. (David Ludlum)

1971: A tornado outbreak struck portions of the Lower Mississippi River Valley and the Southeastern United States on February 21–22nd. The two-day tornado outbreak produced at least 19 tornadoes, probably several more, primarily brief events in rural areas, and killed 123 people across three states. The tornadoes "virtually leveled" entire communities in the state of Mississippi.

1987 - Low pressure over central California produced gale force winds along the coast, and produced thunderstorms which pelted Stockton, Oakland and San Jose with small hail. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A storm tracking across southern Canada produced high winds in the north central U.S., with gusted to 90 mph reported at Boulder CO. The high winds snapped trees and power lines, and ripped shingles off roofs. The Kentucky Fried Chicken Bucket was blown off their store in Havre MT. An eighteen foot fiberglass bear was blown off its stand along a store front in west Cody WY, and sailed east into downtown Cody before the owners were able to transport their wandering bear back home in a horse trailer. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing during the morning hours spread severe weather across Georgia and the Carolinas. Strong thunderstorm winds caused one death and thirteen injuries in North Carolina, and another four injuries in South Carolina. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Overnight thunderstorms produced heavy rain in central Texas. Rainfall totals ranged up to 2.80 inches at Camp Verde, with 2.20 inches reported at Leakey. Thunderstorms early in the day produced high winds in southern Texas, with wind gusts to 60 mph reported at Alice. Daytime thunderstorms in eastern Texas drenched Rosenberg with four inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2013: An astonishing 515 cm (202.8" or almost 17') level of snow depth was measured at Sukayu Onsen, Aomori on Honshu Island in Japan, on February 21, 2013, the deepest snow measured at an official weather site in Japan records. (Last Updated in 2020). 

[vegan_edible]

2 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

I'm not miserable and judging by how skiing and snowboarding is growing rapidly I think there are more and more winter lovers. Plenty of climates to enjoy in the country. I always ask people why live where you are miserable? 

 

Plenty of places to live without seasons. Phoenix being a popular destination without humidity and clouds! Also still close to epic skiing. 

i agree with you, but my stance on winter is from thanksgiving until the end of january, im a happy camper with as much cold and snow as possible. i start getting a little nuts by the beginning of february. having said that, i've lived in southern california and i love it, but miss living in actual fall and winter. so its really a double edged sword. i've spent a good amount of time in pheonix too, the winters are nice, summer is miserable. 

[SACRUS]

On 2/19/2025 at 8:48 AM, SACRUS said:

 

Cold period

Cold period

2/17

NYC: 36 / 26 (-5)
LGA: 38 / 27 (-4)
EWR: 38 / 27 (-3)
JFK: 39 / 29 (-1)

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

2/18

JFK: 32 / 22 (-8)
EWR: 30 / 20 (-11)
NYC: 27/19  (-13)
LGA: 28 / 20 (-13)

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

2/19

EWR: 34 / 17 (-10)
NYC: 30 / 17 (-13)
LGA: 31 / 18 (-12)
JFK: 36 / 20 (-6)

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

2/20

EWR: 31 / 19 (-11)
NYC: 29 / 18 (-13)
LGA: 30 / 19 (-12)
JFK: 34 / 20 (-8)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[SACRUS]

 

Dry but suspect this changes with Thu (2/27) and the next weekend 28 - 3/2

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

I honestly can't remember a winter with as many wind holds on ski lifts as this year. 

Yeah, this was the first time at spots like Newark that the average wind gusts have been over 30 mph since January 1st.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=140&network=NJ_ASOS&station=EWR&syear=1928&sday=0101&eday=0220&varname=avg_wind_gust&w=none&thres=30&year=2025&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, this was the first time at spots like Newark that the average wind gusts have been over 30 mph since January 1st.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=140&network=NJ_ASOS&station=EWR&syear=1928&sday=0101&eday=0220&varname=avg_wind_gust&w=none&thres=30&year=2025&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

 

 

Does warming lead to greater average winds. I would think a warmer world would actually lead to more stability (smaller gradients, temperature differences). 

[psv88]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

I just think if it's above average now or below average now that's all that matters whether we put in a 30-year average or a 50 or average or a 10 year average. Today, is it warmer or colder than average. I don't think there's a need to compare to the past as the environment is always changing through history and will continue to do so, so one inherently knows it's going to be different for various reasons. I know a colder than average temperature today is not going to be colder than average during the ice age, and likely would be way below average during the formation of the Earth. 

Can't live in the past man. The past is gone.

What? An average cannot be calculated without looking at the past. This post makes no sense at all. 

[forkyfork]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Does warming lead to greater average winds. I would think a warmer world would actually lead to more stability (smaller gradients, temperature differences). 

i wonder if it's from our cold shots being fully mixed out every time