February 2025

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, nycsnow said:

Euro has a 994 low into PA on the 28… good luck riding Canadian 

Euro track record the last storm was abysmal. I would not trust any of them pro snow or no snow. 
 

Fool me once shame on you, fool me 127 times and if you're a snow weenie you want to believe the 128th time will be different. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

its good for now, but when we get to summer I love higher temps during the day and lower temps at night.  the predominantly westerly wind will help accomplish that

 

I've never understood your desire for scorching heat. I love a summer day in the high 70's with a nice breeze.  You can take the 90's or what we seem to get so much now is the humid 80's. No thanks. 

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I've never understood your desire for scorching heat. I love a summer day in the high 70's with a nice breeze.  You can take the 90's or what we seem to get so much now is the humid 80's. No thanks. 

I think the point is more its going to get hot anyway so rather have hot dry weather with nighttime lows in the 60s than the hot and humid lows in the 70s

[LibertyBell]

27 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I've never understood your desire for scorching heat. I love a summer day in the high 70's with a nice breeze.  You can take the 90's or what we seem to get so much now is the humid 80's. No thanks. 

it has to be dry and then cool at night, which is great for sleeping.  Hot and dry during the day makes you feel extra energized and then cool at night is great for deep sleep

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I think the point is more its going to get hot anyway so rather have hot dry weather with nighttime lows in the 60s than the hot and humid lows in the 70s

1966 was a summer like this, as were 1993 and 1999 and 2002, more recently so was 2010.

Not the high dew point summers of the 2020s ick.

[LibertyBell]

51 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today, the preliminary PNA value is +1.663. Since 1980, there have been seven years where the PNA reached +1.500 or above during the February 15-29 period. Those cases did not feature any major snowstorms during March. Moreover, during the second half of February, strongly positive PNA regimes do not favor major snowstorms. Indeed, New York City received no 10" or greater snowstorms when the PNA was +1.000 or above during the second half of February through the remainder of the snow season (1950-2024).

All said, given the lack of model support for its solution and the historic data concerning strongly positive PNA events at this time of year, the 2/20 12z GGEM solution is very unlikely to verify. This does not mean that there can't be any snowfall for the remainder of this month or during March. It just means that major events are unlikely. There were some significant snowfalls (6"+), so that might be about the top end of what could reasonably be expected.

As always, sample size considerations and the low probability of an exceptional event can't be ruled out. But unless there is strong and consistent evidence for such an event, one should be skeptical about outlier model solutions such as that which was shown on this morning's GGEM run.

1992 and 2017 stand out, most people know what happened in March 2017 and we discussed March 1992 before, it was a mostly snowless winter with two events near the beginning of springtime.

March 1980 makes the cut too, but it had a smaller event.

 

 

[North and West]

Tick tock tick tock--days lengthening rapidly, Met spring starts in 8 days.    We're on borrowed time for anything decent-maybe 3 weeks left

Sun angle!


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[North and West]

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you’ve been waiting your whole life to post it


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[jm1220]

5 hours ago, psv88 said:

Gradual warming trend every day for the next 6 days. Upper 40s by end of next week. 
 

Spring is coming 

Maybe today can be our last sub-32 high. One can hope.

[Krs4Lfe]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Maybe today can be our last sub-32 high. One can hope.

And with that, we say farewell to winter and on to Spring. Only colder than average temps will allow for any marginal event down to the coast. Clock is rapidly ticking, time is almost up. 

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wow last winter was very bad at Boston with under 10 inches of snow, how many times has Boston had less than 10 inches of snow?

wasn't 2018-19 also a low snowfall season for all these locations?

Boston only had 3 seasons with below 10” of snow. So far they have had 3 top 10 lowest snowfall seasons during the 2020s. They had less snow the last 4 seasons combined than in 14-15. 

 

Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1936-1937	9.0	0
2	2011-2012	9.3	0
3	2023-2024	9.8	0
4	1972-1973	10.3	0
5	2022-2023	12.4	0
6	1979-1980	12.7	0
7	1994-1995	14.9	0
8	2001-2002	15.1	0
9	1988-1989	15.5	0
10	2019-2020	15.8	0

[Snowguy66]

The euro AI is starting to become consistent with a low pressure right off the East Coast next Saturday. This model is not shifting the low around like the other models are. Still a long ways out, but I'll be interested to see how this plays out especially on the AI.


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[Franklin0529]

2 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said:

The euro AI is starting to become consistent with a low pressure right off the East Coast next Saturday. This model is not shifting the low around like the other models are. Still a long ways out, but I'll be interested to see how this plays out especially on the AI.


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It's a rainstorm isn't it ? No cold air really 

[Allsnow]

28 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

It's a rainstorm isn't it ? No cold air really 

Yup. No cold air to work with 

[Franklin0529]

36 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yup. No cold air to work with 

That's what I thought, the trend all year has been to de-amp in short range. Hopefully that'll help 

[Snowguy66]

I am more worried about low placement at this time.


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[TJW014]

Maybe bone dry for the rest of the month?

[donsutherland1]

A storm passing well south and east of New York City produced a significant snowfall in parts of the lower Middle Atlantic region yesterday into today. Some 12" or above amounts were recorded in the the Portsmouth and Virginia Beach areas, as well as parts of North Carolina. 1 SSE Macons Corner, VA picked up 13.0" of snow. 2 NNW Currituck, NC received 14.0" of snow.

Snowfall amounts included:
Norfolk: 11.0"
Raleigh: 2.6"
Richmond: 4.0"
Washington, DC: 0.1"

Norfolk has now received 16.8" of snow this winter. That makes Winter 2024-2025 its snowiest winter since Winter 2010-2011 when 21.2" fell.

A period of light snow or flurries from the associated upper low will bring a coating to 0.5" of snow in and around New York City. Somewhat higher amounts are possible from central New Jersey southward and across eastern Suffolk County.

It will turn milder late in the weekend and the milder weather will continue next week.

There remain indications that a major pattern re-alignment could take place starting in the first week of March.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions have peaked and are beginning to fade. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was -11.77 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.414 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.6° (2.3° below normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

A storm passing well south and east of New York City produced a significant snowfall in parts of the lower Middle Atlantic region yesterday into today. Some 12" or above amounts were recorded in the the Portsmouth and Virginia Beach areas, as well as parts of North Carolina. 1 SSE Macons Corner, VA picked up 13.0" of snow. 2 NNW Currituck, NC received 14.0" of snow.

Snowfall amounts included:
Norfolk: 11.0"
Raleigh: 2.6"
Richmond: 4.0"
Washington, DC: 0.1"

Norfolk has now received 16.8" of snow this winter. That makes Winter 2024-2025 its snowiest winter since Winter 2010-2011 when 21.2" fell.

A period of light snow or flurries from the associated upper low will bring a coating to 0.5" of snow in and around New York City. Somewhat higher amounts are possible from central New Jersey southward and across eastern Suffolk County.

It will turn milder late in the weekend and the milder weather will continue next week.

There remain indications that a major pattern re-alignment could take place starting in the first week of March.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions have peaked and are beginning to fade. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was -11.77 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.414 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.6° (2.3° below normal).

 

Don how much snow did Norfolk get in 09-10? Those 2 years back to back were their last snowy period.  Maybe this year is the start of another snowy period for them (and eventually for us)?

 

[donsutherland1]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don how much snow did Norfolk get in 09-10? Those 2 years back to back were their last snowy period.  Maybe this year is the start of another snowy period for them (and eventually for us)?

 

9.3”.

[coastalplainsnowman]

Don, I'm hoping you are going to do that "winter misery index" calculation / comparison for this winter when all is said and done.  Really curious to see how it will stack up if the winter stays on its current trajectory with regard to snow and temps.  Namely, whether the somewhat below normal temps will help this year land somewhere in the middle historically, despite the low snow totals.  Or, does the fact that the temps when compared to the last hundred years or so aren't all that cold after all will land it among the more miserable winters.

[donsutherland1]

18 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Don, I'm hoping you are going to do that "winter misery index" calculation / comparison for this winter when all is said and done.  Really curious to see how it will stack up if the winter stays on its current trajectory with regard to snow and temps.  Namely, whether the somewhat below normal temps will help this year land somewhere in the middle historically, despite the low snow totals.  Or, does the fact that the temps when compared to the last hundred years or so aren't all that cold after all will land it among the more miserable winters.

I will post the final rankings at the end of the season. Here's where things stood as of yesterday:

2024-2025 was marginally worse than 1965-1966. 2024-2025 was the worst ranked winter with a mean temperature to date of 34.3° or below.

[Dark Star]

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I will post the final rankings at the end of the season. Here's where things stood as of yesterday:

2024-2025 was marginally worse than 1965-1966. 2024-2025 was the worst ranked winter with a mean temperature to date of 34.3° or below.

As much as I have been frustrated, snow amount-wise, I'll still take this winter.

[North and West]

As much as I have been frustrated, snow amount-wise, I'll still take this winter.

I think for people of a certain age, it had the feel of winter when you (me) were a kid; cold, dry, with snow all around you but never seemingly at your home.


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[bluewave]

Last February was a much snowier one for spots like New Brunswick even though it was 5° warmer. The Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet was able to relax for 5 days when we had the record STJ with the El Niño. But the part of the area that really did well was pretty limited. 

 

Climatological Data for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - February 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Sum	793	497	-	-	651	0	3.00	4.1	-
Average	39.7	24.9	32.3	-0.3	-	-	-	-	0.3
Normal	42.0	23.3	32.6	-	648	0	2.09	6.9
2025-02-01	49	34	41.5	10.2	23	0	0.12	0.0	0
2025-02-02	38	17	27.5	-3.9	37	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-02-03	32	18	25.0	-6.5	40	0	T	T	0
2025-02-04	51	26	38.5	6.9	26	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-02-05	49	27	38.0	6.3	27	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-02-06	37	27	32.0	0.1	33	0	0.26	0.2	T
2025-02-07	40	33	36.5	4.5	28	0	0.15	0.0	0
2025-02-08	44	23	33.5	1.4	31	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-02-09	35	27	31.0	-1.3	34	0	0.67	1.2	2
2025-02-10	37	27	32.0	-0.4	33	0	0.03	0.0	1
2025-02-11	39	20	29.5	-3.1	35	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-02-12	36	25	30.5	-2.3	34	0	0.23	1.7	2
2025-02-13	39	31	35.0	2.1	30	0	0.20	0.0	0
2025-02-14	47	29	38.0	4.9	27	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-02-15	37	24	30.5	-2.8	34	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-02-16	37	31	34.0	0.5	31	0	0.74	1.0	0
2025-02-17	47	29	38.0	4.3	27	0	0.60	0.0	0
2025-02-18	37	19	28.0	-5.9	37	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-02-19	29	15	22.0	-12.1	43	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-02-20	33	15	24.0	-10.3	41	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-02-21	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-02-22	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-02-23	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-02-24	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-02-25	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-02-26	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-02-27	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-02-28	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M

 

Climatological Data for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - February 2024
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Sum	1381	820	-	-	777	0	1.90	16.0	-
Average	47.6	28.3	37.9	4.5	-	-	-	-	0.9
Normal	42.8	24.0	33.4	-	885	0	2.97	9.3
2024-02-01	40	29	34.5	3.2	30	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-02-02	48	30	39.0	7.6	26	0	0.12	0.0	0
2024-02-03	44	32	38.0	6.5	27	0	0.08	0.0	0
2024-02-04	47	27	37.0	5.4	28	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-02-05	49	25	37.0	5.3	28	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-02-06	48	23	35.5	3.6	29	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-02-07	45	24	34.5	2.5	30	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-02-08	49	26	37.5	5.4	27	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-02-09	56	30	43.0	10.7	22	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-02-10	60	37	48.5	16.1	16	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-02-11	59	41	50.0	17.4	15	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-02-12	48	33	40.5	7.7	24	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-02-13	48	32	40.0	7.1	25	0	0.62	4.0	4
2024-02-14	43	30	36.5	3.4	28	0	0.14	1.0	2
2024-02-15	38	23	30.5	-2.8	34	0	0.00	0.0	2
2024-02-16	42	26	34.0	0.5	31	0	0.00	0.0	1
2024-02-17	44	30	37.0	3.3	28	0	0.38	11.0	11
2024-02-18	37	18	27.5	-6.4	37	0	T	T	3
2024-02-19	42	24	33.0	-1.1	32	0	0.00	0.0	2
2024-02-20	43	23	33.0	-1.3	32	0	0.00	0.0	1
2024-02-21	41	20	30.5	-4.0	34	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-02-22	43	23	33.0	-1.7	32	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-02-23	50	29	39.5	4.5	25	0	0.14	0.0	0
2024-02-24	48	36	42.0	6.8	23	0	0.01	0.0	0
2024-02-25	45	20	32.5	-2.9	32	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-02-26	42	25	33.5	-2.2	31	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-02-27	56	32	44.0	8.1	21	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-02-28	63	42	52.5	16.3	12	0	0.21	0.0	0
2024-02-29	63	30	46.5	10.2	18	0	0.20	0.0	0

 

 

[Allsnow]

@donsutherland1 how similar was this winter to 1989? 
 

obviously warmer but still below avg for starters 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

As much as I have been frustrated, snow amount-wise, I'll still take this winter.

I enjoyed every little snowfall, too.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

I enjoyed every little snowfall, too.

the cold and wind not so much....

[LibertyBell]

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Last February was a much snowier one for spots like New Brunswick even though it was 5° warmer. The Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet was able to relax for 5 days when we had the record STJ with the El Niño. But the part of the area that really did well was pretty limited. 

 

Climatological Data for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - February 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Sum	793	497	-	-	651	0	3.00	4.1	-
Average	39.7	24.9	32.3	-0.3	-	-	-	-	0.3
Normal	42.0	23.3	32.6	-	648	0	2.09	6.9
2025-02-01	49	34	41.5	10.2	23	0	0.12	0.0	0
2025-02-02	38	17	27.5	-3.9	37	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-02-03	32	18	25.0	-6.5	40	0	T	T	0
2025-02-04	51	26	38.5	6.9	26	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-02-05	49	27	38.0	6.3	27	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-02-06	37	27	32.0	0.1	33	0	0.26	0.2	T
2025-02-07	40	33	36.5	4.5	28	0	0.15	0.0	0
2025-02-08	44	23	33.5	1.4	31	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-02-09	35	27	31.0	-1.3	34	0	0.67	1.2	2
2025-02-10	37	27	32.0	-0.4	33	0	0.03	0.0	1
2025-02-11	39	20	29.5	-3.1	35	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-02-12	36	25	30.5	-2.3	34	0	0.23	1.7	2
2025-02-13	39	31	35.0	2.1	30	0	0.20	0.0	0
2025-02-14	47	29	38.0	4.9	27	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-02-15	37	24	30.5	-2.8	34	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-02-16	37	31	34.0	0.5	31	0	0.74	1.0	0
2025-02-17	47	29	38.0	4.3	27	0	0.60	0.0	0
2025-02-18	37	19	28.0	-5.9	37	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-02-19	29	15	22.0	-12.1	43	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-02-20	33	15	24.0	-10.3	41	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-02-21	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-02-22	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-02-23	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-02-24	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-02-25	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-02-26	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-02-27	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-02-28	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M

 

Climatological Data for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - February 2024
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Sum	1381	820	-	-	777	0	1.90	16.0	-
Average	47.6	28.3	37.9	4.5	-	-	-	-	0.9
Normal	42.8	24.0	33.4	-	885	0	2.97	9.3
2024-02-01	40	29	34.5	3.2	30	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-02-02	48	30	39.0	7.6	26	0	0.12	0.0	0
2024-02-03	44	32	38.0	6.5	27	0	0.08	0.0	0
2024-02-04	47	27	37.0	5.4	28	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-02-05	49	25	37.0	5.3	28	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-02-06	48	23	35.5	3.6	29	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-02-07	45	24	34.5	2.5	30	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-02-08	49	26	37.5	5.4	27	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-02-09	56	30	43.0	10.7	22	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-02-10	60	37	48.5	16.1	16	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-02-11	59	41	50.0	17.4	15	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-02-12	48	33	40.5	7.7	24	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-02-13	48	32	40.0	7.1	25	0	0.62	4.0	4
2024-02-14	43	30	36.5	3.4	28	0	0.14	1.0	2
2024-02-15	38	23	30.5	-2.8	34	0	0.00	0.0	2
2024-02-16	42	26	34.0	0.5	31	0	0.00	0.0	1
2024-02-17	44	30	37.0	3.3	28	0	0.38	11.0	11
2024-02-18	37	18	27.5	-6.4	37	0	T	T	3
2024-02-19	42	24	33.0	-1.1	32	0	0.00	0.0	2
2024-02-20	43	23	33.0	-1.3	32	0	0.00	0.0	1
2024-02-21	41	20	30.5	-4.0	34	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-02-22	43	23	33.0	-1.7	32	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-02-23	50	29	39.5	4.5	25	0	0.14	0.0	0
2024-02-24	48	36	42.0	6.8	23	0	0.01	0.0	0
2024-02-25	45	20	32.5	-2.9	32	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-02-26	42	25	33.5	-2.2	31	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-02-27	56	32	44.0	8.1	21	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-02-28	63	42	52.5	16.3	12	0	0.21	0.0	0
2024-02-29	63	30	46.5	10.2	18	0	0.20	0.0	0

 

 

we did very well on the south shore too, Chris!

question, that says it's the second strongest jet stream winds-- when did we have our strongest?

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I will post the final rankings at the end of the season. Here's where things stood as of yesterday:

2024-2025 was marginally worse than 1965-1966. 2024-2025 was the worst ranked winter with a mean temperature to date of 34.3° or below.

I would rank 1982-83 as a hell of a lot better than this winter, a big 22" HECS and the latest accumulating snowfall on record at JFK 2" on April 20th.