February 2025

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah it was colder because the trough was positioned directly over us and deeper and not as wide. This trough was broader. Check out the pack the ridge encompassed part of the West Coast where this year it was further west allowing more of the cold air to spill into the middle of the country.

the question is was the pacific jet also very fast in those late 80s winters?

 

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Over under on NYC March snowfall? 1.5 inches?

Depends on cold air supply-will need below average temps for any frozen precip as normals rise into the upper 40's and low 50's.

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the question is was the pacific jet also very fast in those late 80s winters?

 

Yeah I don't know however whether it was or wasn't it was the exact same result of cutter suppression cutter suppression cutter suppression on and on LOL. 

What's incredible is in that frigid look in 1989 the one big storm we had ended up changing to rain LOL.

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Depends on cold air supply-will need below average temps for any frozen precip as normals rise into the upper 40's and low 50's.

We may have a shot when the mjo gets to phase 2 however not counting on it LOL.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

We may have a shot when the mjo gets to phase 2 however not counting on it LOL.

I would think there's a 7 to 10 window in there....

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah I don't know however whether it was or wasn't it was the exact same result of cutter suppression cutter suppression cutter suppression on and on LOL. 

What's incredible is in that frigid look in 1989 the one big storm we had ended up changing to rain LOL.

yes this forum would have exploded if we had a month like December 1989 lol.  I was 16 years old at the time and they were still forecasting 6-8 inches of snow on the late night news while it was raining and thundering here lol.  I was so angry I slammed my portable radio into the TV and broke both lol (they were both making the same snowy forecast.) It was the second 6-8 inch bust that year, we also had the virga storm bust in February 1989 when I took a day off from school to enjoy the snow and nothing fell, not even a flake lol.

 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

yes this forum would have exploded if we had a month like December 1989 lol.  I was 16 years old at the time and they were still forecasting 6-8 inches of snow on the late night news while it was raining and thundering here lol.  I was so angry I slammed my portable radio into the TV and broke both lol (they were both making the same snowy forecast.) It was the second 6-8 inch bust that year, we also had the virga storm bust in February 1989 when I took a day off from school to enjoy the snow and nothing fell, not even a flake lol.

 

I lived near Philly at the time-senior in HS we were lucky to get the northern fringe of a few of the storms  but it was small potatoes like this year...and then the torch came and we roasted Jan/Feb/Mar.  Lawns were being mowed mid March that year lol

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I lived near Philly at the time-senior in HS we were lucky to get the northern fringe of a few of the storms  but it was small potatoes like this year...and then the torch came and we roasted Jan/Feb/Mar.  Lawns were being mowed mid March that year lol

I remember spring break was awesome right at home in March 1990 everyone was wearing Bermuda shorts in the middle of the month with temperatures between 85-88 for 3-4 days in a row! I wonder if we'll get that this March?

But then in early April winter came back for one last whimper and we had a 1-2 inch snow event.

[Krs4Lfe]

Not much to say about the long range model runs last night. Rain at the end of next week as a storm moves through the area. Then it looks like some colder than average weather gets stuck over the East but not much in the way or precip. CONUS looks pretty inactive as well, as spring like weather returns to the West and Central US. East US appears to be only place that will have some colder weather for the foreseeable future. Without any storms moving through though, the chance for any snow in March is next to zero. I think that’s all for this winter folks. 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Not much to say about the long range model runs last night. Rain at the end of next week as a storm moves through the area. Then it looks like some colder than average weather gets stuck over the East but not much in the way or precip. CONUS looks pretty inactive as well, as spring like weather returns to the West and Central US. East US appears to be only place that will have some colder weather for the foreseeable future. Without any storms moving through though, the chance for any snow in March is next to zero. I think that’s all for this winter folks. 

transient cold only? That's what Lee Goldberg was saying last night, he said the big pattern change starting next week is that we will go from the arctic cold of winter to springtime transient cold shots only

 

[Stormlover74]

38 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

transient cold only? That's what Lee Goldberg was saying last night, he said the big pattern change starting next week is that we will go from the arctic cold of winter to springtime transient cold shots only

 

It looks briefly cold and dry around the 2nd

[Krs4Lfe]

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It looks briefly cold and dry around the 2nd

Aside from that it seems like Spring has sprung for most of the country and I think we’re on borrowed time for any wintry weather. GFS was showing insane cold yesterday but considering I haven’t seen that posted anywhere, I assume it’s not being shown anymore. 

[gravitylover]

Can I hope for above avg overnight temps? It's ok for daytime temps to be a bit on the low side because *sun angle* helps keep the house warm so the heat doesn't run as much. I'd like it if I don't have to get another oil delivery before the cold season ends.

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Can I hope for above avg overnight temps? It's ok for daytime temps to be a bit on the low side because *sun angle* helps keep the house warm so the heat doesn't run as much. I'd like it if I don't have to get another oil delivery before the cold season ends.

its good for now, but when we get to summer I love higher temps during the day and lower temps at night.  the predominantly westerly wind will help accomplish that

 

[psv88]

Gradual warming trend every day for the next 6 days. Upper 40s by end of next week. 
 

Spring is coming 

[Allsnow]

 

[MJO812]

27 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Gradual warming trend every day for the next 6 days. Upper 40s by end of next week. 
 

Spring is coming 

Not even close. Gfs about to show a coastal at the end of this month. 

Eps is cold through early march.

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not even close. Gfs about to show a coastal at the end of this month. 

Eps is cold through early march.

Rain for the coast

[MJO812]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Rain for the coast

Yep but nice ridge out west. Favorable mjo. We don't want it good this far out. 

 

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep but nice ridge out west. Favorable mjo. We don't want it good this far out. 

 

It was a blizzard 2 days ago and hasn't been close since

[wishcast_hater]

Once rain is on the table its a lock     

[Metasequoia]

56 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not even close. Gfs about to show a coastal at the end of this month. 

Eps is cold through early march.

Canadian has something interesting during this time frame. Storm signal on multiple models.

[psv88]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Not even close. Gfs about to show a coastal at the end of this month. 

Eps is cold through early march.

What’s not even close? The temps will be warming up. March is meteorological sprint. It’s coming 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Not even close. Gfs about to show a coastal at the end of this month. 

Eps is cold through early march.

Tick tock tick tock--days lengthening rapidly, Met spring starts in 8 days.    We're on borrowed time for anything decent-maybe 3 weeks left

[snowman19]

[Yanksfan]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

For once I hope you’re right. This winter has been down right torture on my soul.

[psv88]

10 minutes ago, Yanksfan said:

For once I hope you’re right. This winter has been down right torture on my soul.

Nothing worse than cold and dry 

[nycsnow]

Euro has a 994 low into PA on the 28… good luck riding Canadian 

[Krs4Lfe]

57 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

That's why we haven't seen nice looking model depictions of blues over the east lately. Because they show the opposite. I give you credit Snowman, you have been spot on lately. Looking past pretty model depictions have showed the failure mode all winter long. No reason to think it'll change in March

[donsutherland1]

Today, the preliminary PNA value is +1.663. Since 1980, there have been seven years where the PNA reached +1.500 or above during the February 15-29 period. Those cases did not feature any major snowstorms during March. Moreover, during the second half of February, strongly positive PNA regimes do not favor major snowstorms. Indeed, New York City received no 10" or greater snowstorms when the PNA was +1.000 or above during the second half of February through the remainder of the snow season (1950-2024).

All said, given the lack of model support for its solution and the historic data concerning strongly positive PNA events at this time of year, the 2/20 12z GGEM solution is very unlikely to verify. This does not mean that there can't be any snowfall for the remainder of this month or during March. It just means that major events are unlikely. There were some significant snowfalls (6"+), so that might be about the top end of what could reasonably be expected.

As always, sample size considerations and the low probability of an exceptional event can't be ruled out. But unless there is strong and consistent evidence for such an event, one should be skeptical about outlier model solutions such as that which was shown on this morning's GGEM run.