February 2025

[the_other_guy]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Perhaps the fast pac ext can help us with that in March 

 

Back to my previous post, all I was pointing out is that spring like warmth is going to need to wait. That’s a chilly looks on the eps moving forward 

You are right!

 

There has been nothing warm about the last 3 months. Why anyone would predict or expect an early spring is beyond me.

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Perhaps the fast pac ext can help us with that in March 

 

Back to my previous post, all I was pointing out is that spring like warmth is going to need to wait. That’s a chilly looks on the eps moving forward 

chilly in March is a lot different than chilly in January and February, we're talking 40s here, not 20s like we have right now.

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

chilly in March is a lot different than chilly in January and February, we're talking 40s here, not 20s like we have right now.

40’s isn’t spring like warmth and below avg for March 

[snowman19]

23 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

With the ridge axis off the west coast we risk more cutters/SWFE to dry windy cold. We want it further east. 

Exactly. The model depicted PAC pattern isn’t changing one iota. It’s the exact same pattern we have had literally all winter long, since the end of November. An exact replica, carbon copy. Good luck with big snow threats in March since nothing is changing. More of the same. Just because it’s a different month, doesn’t mean we get a different result, this PAC pattern has been a complete failure for the last 4 months. Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result….

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Exactly. The model depicted pattern PAC isn’t changing one iota. It’s the exact same pattern we have had literally all winter long, since the end of November. An exact replica, carbon copy. Good luck with big snow threats in March since nothing is changing. More of the same. Just because it’s a different month, doesn’t mean we get a different result, this PAC pattern has been a complete failure for the last 4 months. Madness is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result….

Right, the most it will do is alternate between 40s and sunshine and 40s and rain.  Maybe upper 30s on the coldest days.

This winter hasn't been extremely cold either, it's been around normal to slightly below.  No single digits at all and a few teens here and there.  Progressing that same pattern to March means a mean temperature in the 40s.

 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Exactly. The model depicted pattern PAC isn’t changing one iota. It’s the exact same pattern we have had literally all winter long, since the end of November. An exact replica, carbon copy. Good luck with big snow threats in March since nothing is changing. More of the same. Just because it’s a different month, doesn’t mean we get a different result, this PAC pattern has been a complete failure for the last 4 months. Madness is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result….

I never said anything about snow 

 

the only thing I said was more cold is coming 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

40’s isn’t spring like warmth and below avg for March 

40s for the mean temperature, the month might be slightly below normal but that means a mean temperature around 40 or low 40s.

[snowman19]

Just now, Allsnow said:

I never said anything about snow 

 

the only thing I said was more cold is coming 

I know you didn’t. Wasn’t talking about you

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

40s for the mean temperature, the month might be slightly below normal but that means a mean temperature around 40 or low 40s.

40’s are normal 

 

this is below normal 

[SnowGoose69]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Exactly. The model depicted PAC pattern isn’t changing one iota. It’s the exact same pattern we have had literally all winter long, since the end of November. An exact replica, carbon copy. Good luck with big snow threats in March since nothing is changing. More of the same. Just because it’s a different month, doesn’t mean we get a different result, this PAC pattern has been a complete failure for the last 4 months. Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result….

It can be easier to get something in March that might miss to the east in Dec/Jan/Feb.  My memory is the April 82 storm did not have a very favorable pattern and probably would have missed to the east in winter due to things being progressive.

[psv88]

16 this morning. 

[LibertyBell]

27 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It can be easier to get something in March that might miss to the east in Dec/Jan/Feb.  My memory is the April 82 storm did not have a very favorable pattern and probably would have missed to the east in winter due to things being progressive.

That was such a cold winter, we were below zero in January with three days of snowfall.  That was when the plane crashed into the Potomac.

 

[jm1220]

Take the stupid bickering somewhere else. 

[JetsPens87]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

EPS really cool off from the 28 into March. We haven’t had any luck with snow but I don’t see spring coming anytime soon 

It's very hard for me to envision any sort of sustained warmth in the next 2 to 4 weeks.

[LibertyBell]

42 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

40’s are normal 

 

this is below normal 

I can't remember the last time we had a March mean temperature in the 30s, even 39.9.... March 2015? If it's like the winter has been, it won't as cold as that month was, it's been only slightly below normal.

 

[JetsPens87]

CFS Weekly show the PV staying put until week 4 until it (abruptly) retreats W and allows heights to spike in the E. 

 

That evolution given background state seems abrupt to me and I'd expect it later week 4 and beyond.

I'm also not really as knowledgeable in the long range so take that fwiw. Just being honest.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

CFS Weekly show the PV staying put until week 4 until it (abruptly) retreats W and allows heights to spike in the E. 

 

That evolution given background state seems abrupt to me and I'd expect it later week 4 and beyond.

I'm also not really as knowledgeable in the long range so take that fwiw. Just being honest.

I know you and others have said this isn't similar to 2013-14 and 2014-15 and of course it isn't in terms of snowfall, but what about that sustained EPO?

 

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

It's very hard for me to envision any sort of sustained warmth in the next 2 to 4 weeks.

I’m thinking we probably default below avg until mid March 

 

[JetsPens87]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I know you and others have said this isn't similar to 2013-14 and 2014-15 and of course it isn't in terms of snowfall, but what about that sustained EPO?

 

I actually don't think I chimed in on that. 

My thoughts on the EPO are that we are struggling with the PAC even given that EPO. 

Ringing has been displaced W and there has been consistent pesky poorly timed energy dismantling these ridges given the fast Pac flow which has cursed us for 3 plus years now.

[JetsPens87]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

anybody else have a feeling March will end up being our snowiest month this season because of the forecasted cold signals - MJO etc. etc. and suppressed storm tracks are less common later in the season ?

Yes but please keep in mind you're asking for a feeling not a forecast here.

It's not a high bar to achieve right now and I think we get a shot at one very large event (possibly more) as the PV looks to eventually retreat.

Go ahead and put your poop emoji. Idc.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Yes but please keep in mind you're asking for a feeling not a forecast here.

It's not a high bar to achieve right now and I think we get a shot at one very large event (possibly more) as the PV looks to eventually retreat.

Go ahead and put your poop emoji. Idc.

If you want la nina analogs, March 1956 and March 1984 are two.

I would lean more towards March 1984 since that had a dry and cold winter similar to this one and came after a strong el nino.

I won't list March 2018 since we didn't have a SSW like that this year.

 

[North and West]

Hecs

.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, North and West said:

.

Now it's a slopfest. Bit of snow over to heavy rain. Probably a more likely outcome

[North and West]

Now it's a slopfest. Bit of snow over to heavy rain. Probably a more likely outcome

Not our year. Can’t wait for warmth and baseball.


.

[Krs4Lfe]

15 minutes ago, North and West said:

Not our year. Can’t wait for warmth and baseball.


.

Hasn't been our year since 2021. Something has gone awry this decade. I think what Bluewave says about record warm SSTs in North Pacific is leading to a stronger Pac Jet and faster Northern stream. As favorable as the North Atlantic might be, we need the pacific and northern stream to slow down. Until then, there will be no KUs, and we won't reach above average snowfall. 

[North and West]

Hasn't been our year since 2021. Something has gone awry this decade. I think what Bluewave says about record warm SSTs in North Pacific is leading to a stronger Pac Jet and faster Northern stream. As favorable as the North Atlantic might be, we need the pacific and northern stream to slow down. Until then, there will be no KUs, and we won't reach above average snowfall. 

May be right. I don’t know enough; I don’t disagree with what you’re saying, though I think it’s more random and luck than we want to admit, as for most things in life. Kind of like, you’re not wrong, but also big snowstorms in New Orleans and Pensacola? Seems just good or bad luck.

Or the other day, there was a flipped over tractor trailer on 24, occurring minutes before I left home. If I had a left a few minutes earlier… who knows. Just random things.


.

[MorristownWx]

I laughed so hard when I saw MJO post the GFS at 228. 
 

at this point unless there is a major storm, I’d love for the 2-3” of solid ice to melt over getting a couple more nickel and dime events which I usually like for the wintery feel and the easy clean up. 

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Hasn't been our year since 2021. Something has gone awry this decade. I think what Bluewave says about record warm SSTs in North Pacific is leading to a stronger Pac Jet and faster Northern stream. As favorable as the North Atlantic might be, we need the pacific and northern stream to slow down. Until then, there will be no KUs, and we won't reach above average snowfall. 

Wow 3 whole years, what are we going to do!  One was a terrible year, one average and one a bit below average here.  The 90s had 7 bad years out of 10, but maybe you weren't born yet.  

[winterwarlock]

Please bring on the 60s and 70s..tired of this brutal cold

[Big Jims Videos]

we need more moisture - in whatever form - as we start to approach fire season. The next 7 days looks dry.