February 2025

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

I’m not convinced of that. It can still easily snow all the way down to NC as we clearly see this year. The overall pattern has just shifted to a very hostile one here and a 30” long term average was never going to stick around for NYC. Boston has also had a very rough few years but Nina patterns that bring SWFEs can produce there vs maybe 1/10 of those being decent in any way here. I don’t think a 50” long term average can stick around for Boston either. 

la ninas have become more common haven't they? that explains why New England remains more resistant to snowfall decline but doesn't explain what's been going on down south this season.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, JetsPens87 said:

Agreed

People act like the models have no idea whatsoever. This event was literally telegraphed from 5 days out minus a few hiccup runs that the weenies all latched onto. 

It's not our fault people don't know how to use the tools

 

it's not just one storm it's been the entire season and it's been happening for several years now as Chris pointed out.

As met fan said the models should not be run past 5 days or at the very least don't make them accessible to the public after 5 days.

Meteorology isn't an exact science.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, JetsPens87 said:

Please re read your post.

 

FRIDAY. From Fri everyone latched onto a few crazy runs at almost a WEEK out. That's their fault.

 

No respectable met ever called for a HECS that early.

no one anywhere called for an HECS but many were calling for  a significant storm at least, including  well respected Cornell graduating meteorologist on our major networks.

 

[SACRUS]

 

19 / 1 off a low of 13.   At or near freezing as the cold continues.  Mainly dry next 4- 5 days.  The once potential major snowstorm is staying well south and perhaps a period of snow flurries or showers is possible.  Moderation by the weekend and into early next week.  Cold does seem to be forecast to reload and remain nearby after any moderation as we move into the close of the month and start of next.  Perhaps some late inning snow awaits before a meaningful change in the pattern to warmer.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes and no....can you look me in my virtual eyes and tell me the aggresssive northern stream isn't wreaking havoc with models in the medium range this year?? 48 hours if probably hyperbole, but flip it....84 hours is not.

I blogged on Friday night that tomorrow would not be a big deal....guidance was converging on a NE blizzard at that time....then Saturday...POOF.

anyone who says the models are never wrong is in denial, they have been wrong plenty.  But if you can't admit when they are wrong, you're not going to be open to help fix them either.

 

[MJO812]

Epo reloading on the models

Can we please get snow 

[LibertyBell]

42 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Or the screaming warm Indian Ocean which has phases 1 and 2 of the mjo which are cold. Doesn't seem to be talked about or acknowledged for some reason.

they have now been saying that  a warm IO is hostile to east coast snowstorms too'

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 69 (2017)
NYC: 66 (1997)
LGA: 66 (2017)
JFK: 68 (2017)


Lows:

EWR: 1 (1936)
NYC: 1 (1936)
LGA: 9 (2015)
JFK: 9 (2015)


Historical:

 

1884 - Severe thunderstorms spawned sixty tornadoes in the southeastern U.S., killing more than 420 persons and causing three million dollars damage. Georgia and the Carolinas hardest were hit in the tornado outbreak. (David Ludlum)

1888 - A tornado struck Mount Vernon IL. The tornado killed sixteen persons along its 62 mile path. (David Ludlum)

 

1888: Severe thunderstorms over southern Illinois spawned a violent tornado in Jefferson County and devastated the southeast half of Mount Vernon. The tornado killed 24 people, injured 80 others, and destroyed or damaged 300 homes and 50 businesses. In addition, overturned wood stoves ignited many fires in the wreckage. The tornado currently stands as the 9th deadliest Illinois tornado on record and was one of the first disasters to which the American Red Cross responded.

 

1954 - High winds across the southern half of the Great Plains, gusting to 85 mph, caused the worst duststorms since the 1930s. Graders were needed in places to clear fence high dirt drifts. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A winter storm over the southern and central Rockies produced 28 inches of snow at Echo Lake CO, and two feet of snow at Gascon NM and Los Alamos NM. Mora County NM was declared a disaster area following the storm. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Showers and thunderstorms in the southeastern U.S. drenched Valdosta GA with more than five inches of rain, and the 24 hour rainfall total of 7.10 inches at Apalachicola FL more than doubled their previous 24 hour record for February. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - An upper level weather disturbance brought heavy snow to parts of Nebraska, with six inches reported at Loup City and Surprise. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A moist Pacific storm worked its way into New Mexico and southern Colorado. Up to 36 inches of snow blanketed the Wolf Creek and Red Mountain passes of southwest Colorado, and up to 15 inches of snow was reported around Trinidad. In New Mexico, the eastern slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains were blanketed with 9 to 28 inches of snow, and 50 to 60 mph wind gusts were reported from Taos to Albuquerque. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2011 - Strong winds reaching as high as 40 mph with gusts to 53 mph topple the 48 year old National Christmas tree. The 42 foot tall Colorado blue spruce sat just south of the White House on the Ellipse. It was transplanted there from York, Pennsylvania in 1978. The Weather Doctor

[SACRUS]

 

NYC Feb 19, 1972 : 5.2 inches of snowfall

1979: 12.2 inches of snowfall (PDI Blizzard)

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i saw people even comparing this to Jan 2015. that was on a totally different level of fail. not even close

Probably comparing it to that because it was the Euro in both cases who had it first.

[SACRUS]

 

1979 Feb 17 - 19 Presidents Day Storm (Blizzard)

https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/nws-heritage/-/unpredictable-the-president-s-day-storm-of-1979

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I remember I came in into this forum right after the 3' run for NYC and opined that it would be captured later and trend NE....it wasn't recieved well.

The memory of it didn't last long, unlike March 2001, because the year after we got clobbered by a much bigger storm, the 30 inch plus behemoth January 2016 (my favorite snowstorm of all time), 30+ inches of snow here, 12 consecutive hours of true blizzard conditions, snowfall for 30+ hours.

 

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

they have now been saying that  a warm IO is hostile to east coast snowstorms too'

 

They're not hostile to snow storms however they are not phase 8 which is where our KU events are usually born from. 

[EastonSN+]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The question is what changed so greatly between 2017-18 and 2018-19? Was that when the marine heatwaves in the West Pacific began or just when they reached the threshold to cause the Pacific jet to interfere with the spacing of shortwaves?

Also what happened between 69 and 70 which was the same exact light switch from epic periods to horrid snowfall periods.

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

19 / 1 off a low of 13.   At or near freezing as the cold continues.  Mainly dry next 4- 5 days.  The once potential major snowstorm is staying well south and perhaps a period of snow flurries or showers is possible.  Moderation by the weekend and into early next week.  Cold does seem to be forecast to reload and remain nearby after any moderation as we move into the close of the month and start of next.  Perhaps some late inning snow awaits before a meaningful change in the pattern to warmer.

 

even if it does get a little cooler for the beginning of next month, it probably won't get lower than around 40 for highs, it's March by then.

[SACRUS]

23 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Cold period
 

 

 

Cold period

2/17

NYC: 36 / 26 (-5)
LGA: 38 / 27 (-4)
EWR: 38 / 27 (-3)
JFK: 39 / 29 (-1)

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

2/18

JFK: 32 / 22 (-8)
EWR: 30 / 20 (-11)
NYC: 27/19  (-13)
LGA: 28 / 20 (-13)

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[the_other_guy]

you’ll probably get another one or two 2-3 inchsnowstorms before it’s all set and done. That’s your winter this year.

No big one coming to save annual total

 

meanwhile, out in Bozeman, I’ve never seen so much snow. at least 4 feet of snow on the ground and while I’ve seen that in the mountains, I’ve never really seen that in a town before. We had another 6 inches last night and the sky finally cleared.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Also what happened between 69 and 70 which was the same exact light switch from epic periods to horrid snowfall periods.

The differences in snowfall averages makes me wonder if the real sign of CC are greater extremes.  The snowfall drought we are in now is of a greater magnitude than we had in the 70s and 80s but so was the extreme of our snowier period between 2000 and 2018.  So maybe our extremes are getting more extreme in both directions.

 

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The differences in snowfall averages makes me wonder if the real sign of CC are greater extremes.  The snowfall drought we are in now is of a greater magnitude than we had in the 70s and 80s but so was the extreme of our snowier period between 2000 and 2018.  So maybe our extremes are getting more extreme in both directions.

 

So far the 30 yr avg 1970 through 1999 is 21.907 (14 of those years below 19 inches) compared to 18/19 through this year of 15.38. could be more extreme waiting to similar yearly average but we shall see.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

120 hours.....capitulation was Saturday. Saturday AM everyone woke up naked in a hot tub with their laptops in hand....by Sunday AM they were all lying tits up.

96 to perhaps 120 hours for a general idea of where the storm will go, 48 hours for exact details like snowfall amounts in that region.

This is based on my own experience with storms that hit here, 96-120 hours we have a general idea, and I'd emphasize the 96 hours over the 120 hours, and 48 hours to pin down exact details like snowfall amounts.

 

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i mean, it is, but 48 hours is a bit much. the models capitulated and it totally blew, but it was at 120-144 hours out. that happens. we're in agreement that it would be a different story if we were inside of three days

god, i can't wait for an effective El Nino. hopefully next year

Still looking like another weak or even chance of a borderline moderate Nina at the moment.  The QBO may be more favorable next winter though

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The memory of it didn't last long, unlike March 2001, because the year after we got clobbered by a much bigger storm, the 30 inch plus behemoth January 2016 (my favorite snowstorm of all time), 30+ inches of snow here, 12 consecutive hours of true blizzard conditions, snowfall for 30+ hours.

 

Yea, you exacted big time revenge on SNE in that one....I got like an inch of sand.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, you exactef big time revenge on SNE in that one....I got like an inch of sand.

That makes me sad though I actually like sharing snow, that's what made storms like February 1983, January 1996 and PD2 2003 so special.

 

[JetsPens87]

36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

anyone who says the models are never wrong is in denial, they have been wrong plenty.  But if you can't admit when they are wrong, you're not going to be open to help fix them either.

 

Please don't conflate me not believing this is a startling 'bust' per se with me thinking the models are never wrong.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, JetsPens87 said:

Please don't conflate me not believing this is a startling 'bust' per se with me thinking the models are never wrong.

I should have amended my post about the 48 hours, I meant that in regards to more precise details like snowfall amounts.  For general details about where a storm will go, more like 96 hours.

[JetsPens87]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

I should have amended my post about the 48 hours, I meant that in regards to more precise details like snowfall amounts.  For general details about where a storm will go, more like 96 hours.

Fair

[Allsnow]

EPS really cool off from the 28 into March. We haven’t had any luck with snow but I don’t see spring coming anytime soon 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

EPS really cool off from the 28 into March. We haven’t had any luck with snow but I don’t see spring coming anytime soon 

With the ridge axis off the west coast we risk more cutters/SWFE to dry windy cold. We want it further east. 

[SACRUS]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

EPS really cool off from the 28 into March. We haven’t had any luck with snow but I don’t see spring coming anytime soon 

 

Cooler/cold look with trough into the east to close the month and start of next - some stronger cold nearby as well in this timeframe.

 

[Allsnow]

Just now, jm1220 said:

With the ridge axis off the west coast we risk more cutters/SWFE to dry windy cold. We want it further east. 

Perhaps the fast pac ext can help us with that in March 

 

Back to my previous post, all I was pointing out is that spring like warmth is going to need to wait. That’s a chilly looks on the eps moving forward