February 2025

[MJO812]

Just now, Rjay said:

Who's starting the thread? 

Not until 84 hours out 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, MJO812 said:

We are most likely going to get a storm. It's good to be cautious this far out but it's a really good pattern .

Why do you this to yourself? It'll be gone by tomorrow. Cmc has nothing

[Heisy]

The 27-28th time frame is suddenly trending better pattern wise, I think it’s legit if this trend continues we’ll see


.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Why do you this to yourself? It'll be gone by tomorrow. Cmc has nothing

Because the pattern is ripe. No one is telling you to track anything.  It's a weather forum. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

The 27-28th time frame is suddenly trending better pattern wise, I think it’s legit if this trend continues we’ll see


.

Gfs is a weenie run. Another storm in early March.

[Heisy]

Gfs is a weenie run. Another storm in early March.

-EPO on steroids


.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Because the pattern is ripe. No one is telling you to track anything.  It's a weather forum. 

2 days ago you canceled winter 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

2 days ago you canceled winter 

Frustration

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

-EPO on steroids


.

Another week of tracking for me. I do think we enter a favorable pattern. 

[Franklin0529]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We are most likely going to get a storm. It's good to be cautious this far out but it's a really good pattern .

Let me know how it looks next Wednesday 

[MJO812]

Just now, Franklin0529 said:

Let me know how it looks next Wednesday 

Definitely 

Thread lightly right now 

 

( No spring in sight on the gfs )

[Franklin0529]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is a weenie run. Another storm in early March.

Dude you're setting yourself up for failure!! I do hope we get atleast one storm of 6" or more. I'm rooting for it. Just hard to buy in at this point 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

Dude you're setting yourself up for failure!! I do hope we get atleast one storm of 6" or more. I'm rooting for it. Just hard to buy in at this point 

Yes it has been frustrating but it's not like spring is coming.  Have to keep tracking. 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yup, some people never understand that good patterns just increase the odds for snow, not guarantee it. we literally just saw that play out this week!

But having none at all work out for 3+ years and you understand why people are tuning everything out.  At this point, nothing can be trusted until it's within 48 hours.

 

[brooklynwx99]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

But having none at all work out for 3+ years and you understand why people are tuning everything out.  At this point, nothing can be trusted until it's within 48 hours.

 

that's kinda silly. that attitude is borne out of frustration rather than anything scientific

[Yanksfan]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

that's kinda silly. that attitude is borne out of frustration rather than anything scientific

Welp I guess you can put me in the pessimistic group. Last Friday when everyone was talking up this so called historic storm and models were spewing out ridiculous clown maps, in the back of my mind my thought process was “well I’m hoping this happens but more likely than not the other shoe will drop.” 

[SnoSki14]

Euro/CMC show nothing. GFS backed down. It'll either be rain or cold/dry. 

EPS is warmer than GEFS to start March, I hope it's correct. Screw this winter, give me spring please. 

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

But having none at all work out for 3+ years and you understand why people are tuning everything out.  At this point, nothing can be trusted until it's within 48 hours.

 

There has been an interesting phenomenon happening with the modeling since 18-19. Some models have been showing unrealistic snowfall outcomes longer range given the jet dynamics which have been in place. But the storm tracks once under 120 and 72 hrs conformed to the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. So my guess is that the new model bias is showing too little Pacific interference or disruption longer range which becomes evident once the storm comes into closer range.

A faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet can lead to shortwave spacing issues like we have this week. So the shorter term models will be able to see the shortwave behind acting as a kicker. But this distinction isn’t clear longer range leading to false positive snowfall outcomes. Then when we do have enough wavelength spacing like this past weekend, a suppressed or hugger initial long range forecast can become a cutter in the short range. Other times we had snowier long range forecast outcomes which had a slightly stronger Southeast Ridge like models were snowing earlier this month. This is why the EPS 240 to 360 hr snow means kept showing double digit totals for NYC which didn’t verify. The gradient drifted about 30 to 50 miles further north over time since the faster flow and warm water feedback off the East Coast worked in tandem.

This has been a pretty big departure from the modeling from 2010 to 2018. Now we all know that there were false positive long range snowfall outcomes during this era. But there were also several successful long range modeling events. We can all remember the Euro control run from a week out nailing the 950mb benchmark blizzard in January 2018. And there were other examples of the models correctly forecasting  longer range snowstorms. 

The Pacific Jet was much weaker and we had we had a well established benchmark storm track for the better part of 9 seasons. So these days it’s pretty much become the norm that the benchmark storm tracks only show up days 6-10 and 11-15 but don’t  make it into the under 120 hr range once the full impact of the Pacific Jet comes into better focus.  So models showing benchmark tracks beyond 120 hrs need to be taken with a grain of salt. But if this multiyear storm tracks is to end, it will have to occur in the short range in order to be believed. 

[nycsnow]

Don’t worry another week to get disappointed 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, bluewave said:

Those were better periods for snowfall around NYC Metro than the last 7 season stretch here.

We are currently on pace for a new 10 year snowfall low average across the area if we don’t get a big increase over the next 3 seasons.  This current 7 year lower running snowfall average began in 18-19. The past slumps were followed by 50” seasons boosting the totals back up in the following years. But reaching such heavy totals in recent years has been a significant challenge. So we are going to need a big shift back to benchmark storm tracks in the coming seasons in order to avoid the least snowy calendar decade and 10 year running mean.
 

Lowest 10 year averages and ending year and current 7 year average since 18-19

 

EWR…..1977……19.4”…….2025….17.3”

NYC…..1993……18.8”…….2025….14.9”

LGA…..1977…….17.7”……..2025….16.0”

JFK…..1993….…18.0”…….2025…..14.5”

ISP……1995…….19.3”……..2025…..16.8”

 

I think part of the disconnect between us is due to the difference in perspective given our locales. This is simply regression to the mean for me, as evidenced by the 60" average since 2015, though that looks to drop after this season. See Don's point regarding NYC potentially being in the early stages of decline, but not yet Boston...I'm on the NH border.

 

[NYER72]

9 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Don’t worry another week to get disappointed 

NYC Bullseye a week out = Congratulations Boston or Virginia

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think part of the disconnect between us is due to the difference in perspective given our locales. This is simply regression to the mean for me, as evidenced by the 60" average since 2015, though that looks to drop after this season. See Don's point regarding NYC potentially being in the early stages of decline, but not yet Boston...I'm on the NH border.

 

I’m not convinced of that. It can still easily snow all the way down to NC as we clearly see this year. The overall pattern has just shifted to a very hostile one here and a 30” long term average was never going to stick around for NYC. Boston has also had a very rough few years but Nina patterns that bring SWFEs can produce there vs maybe 1/10 of those being decent in any way here. I don’t think a 50” long term average can stick around for Boston either. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’m not convinced of that. It can still easily snow all the way down to NC as we clearly see this year. The overall pattern has just shifted to a very hostile one here and a 30” long term average was never going to stick around for NYC. Boston has also had a very rough few years but Nina patterns that bring SWFEs can produce there vs maybe 1/10 of those being decent in any way here. I don’t think a 50” long term average can stick around for Boston either. 

You are preaching to the choir....I'm in your camp, however, its obviously going to begin impacting NYC snowfall before it is mine. I don't think Don (I know I am not) is convinced that NYC is alreading being impacted, either....he was simply entertaining the possibility that NYC is in the early stages.

[JetsPens87]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

that's kinda silly. that attitude is borne out of frustration rather than anything scientific

Agreed

People act like the models have no idea whatsoever. This event was literally telegraphed from 5 days out minus a few hiccup runs that the weenies all latched onto. 

It's not our fault people don't know how to use the tools

 

[JetsPens87]

1 hour ago, Yanksfan said:

Welp I guess you can put me in the pessimistic group. Last Friday when everyone was talking up this so called historic storm and models were spewing out ridiculous clown maps, in the back of my mind my thought process was “well I’m hoping this happens but more likely than not the other shoe will drop.” 

Please re read your post.

 

FRIDAY. From Fri everyone latched onto a few crazy runs at almost a WEEK out. That's their fault.

 

No respectable met ever called for a HECS that early.

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There has been an interesting phenomenon happening with the modeling since 18-19. Some models have been showing unrealistic snowfall outcomes longer range given the jet dynamics which have been in place. But the storm tracks once under 120 and 72 hrs conformed to the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. So my guess is that the new model bias is showing too little Pacific interference or disruption longer range which becomes evident once the storm comes into closer range.

A faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet can lead to shortwave spacing issues like we have this week. So the shorter term models will be able to see the shortwave behind acting as a kicker. But this distinction isn’t clear longer range leading to false positive snowfall outcomes. Then when we do have enough wavelength spacing like this past weekend, a suppressed or hugger initial long range forecast can become a cutter in the short range. Other times we had snowier long range forecast outcomes which had a slightly stronger Southeast Ridge like models were snowing earlier this month. This is why the EPS 240 to 360 hr snow means kept showing double digit totals for NYC which didn’t verify. The gradient drifted about 30 to 50 miles further north over time since the faster flow and warm water feedback off the East Coast worked in tandem.

This has been a pretty big departure from the modeling from 2010 to 2018. Now we all know that there were false positive long range snowfall outcomes during this era. But there were also several successful long range modeling events. We can all remember the Euro control run from a week out nailing the 950mb benchmark blizzard in January 2018. And there were other examples of the models correctly forecasting  longer range snowstorms. 

The Pacific Jet was much weaker and we had we had a well established benchmark storm track for the better part of 9 seasons. So these days it’s pretty much become the norm that the benchmark storm tracks only show up days 6-10 and 11-15 but don’t  make it into the under 120 hr range once the full impact of the Pacific Jet comes into better focus.  So models showing benchmark tracks beyond 120 hrs need to be taken with a grain of salt. But if this multiyear storm tracks is to end, it will have to occur in the short range in order to be believed. 

I the crux of the issue is that while many of your claims likely have at least some validity, most view it has natural variability and that should be the baseline assumption for now. I know you ultimately assert that you are open to new information moving forward and are not resigned to this being permanent, but I think this issue is that your tone seems to suggest that your baseline assumption is that it will be permanent moving forward. Maybe I am off base, but that is how it comes across to me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

that's kinda silly. that attitude is borne out of frustration rather than anything scientific

Yes and no....can you look me in my virtual eyes and tell me the aggresssive northern stream isn't wreaking havoc with models in the medium range this year?? 48 hours if probably hyperbole, but flip it....84 hours is not.

I blogged on Friday night that tomorrow would not be a big deal....guidance was converging on a NE blizzard at that time....then Saturday...POOF.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Agreed

People act like the models have no idea whatsoever. This event was literally telegraphed from 5 days out minus a few hiccup runs that the weenies all latched onto. 

It's not our fault people don't know how to use the tools

 

Yes, valid point.

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes and no....can you look me in my virtual eyes and tell me the aggresssive northern stream isn't wreaking havoc with models in the medium range this year?? 48 hours if probably hyperbole, but flip it....84 hours is not.

I blogged on Friday night that tomorrow would not be a big deal....guidance was converging on a NE blizzard at that time....then Saturday...POOF.

 

[SnoSki14]

Crazy seeing Norfolk, VA under a warning for 5-10" while we struggle to get anything more than a 2-3" storm all winter. 

Even crazier when parts of Louisiana had a foot of snow earlier

[brooklynwx99]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes and no....can you look me in my virtual eyes and tell me the aggresssive northern stream isn't wreaking havoc with models in the medium range this year?? 48 hours if probably hyperbole, but flip it....84 hours is not.

I blogged on Friday night that tomorrow would not be a big deal....guidance was converging on a NE blizzard at that time....then Saturday...POOF.

i mean, it is, but 48 hours is a bit much. the models capitulated and it totally blew, but it was at 120-144 hours out. that happens. we're in agreement that it would be a different story if we were inside of three days

god, i can't wait for an effective El Nino. hopefully next year