February 2025

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Franklin0529 said:

Perfectly sums up our winter 

More consolation coatings! 

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

In closing, I have a question for you....why do you think the 1950s and 1980s, especially the 1988-1992 period, were so poor for snowfall on the east coast?

Those were better periods for snowfall around NYC Metro than the last 7 season stretch here.

We are currently on pace for a new 10 year snowfall low average across the area if we don’t get a big increase over the next 3 seasons.  This current 7 year lower running snowfall average began in 18-19. The past slumps were followed by 50” seasons boosting the totals back up in the following years. But reaching such heavy totals in recent years has been a significant challenge. So we are going to need a big shift back to benchmark storm tracks in the coming seasons in order to avoid the least snowy calendar decade and 10 year running mean.
 

Lowest 10 year averages and ending year and current 7 year average since 18-19

 

EWR…..1977……19.4”…….2025….17.3”

NYC…..1993……18.8”…….2025….14.9”

LGA…..1977…….17.7”……..2025….16.0”

JFK…..1993….…18.0”…….2025…..14.5”

ISP……1995…….19.3”……..2025…..16.8”

 

[SnoSki14]

18 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

we'll have more chances into March. cold with -AO/-EPO persisting

Lol yeah ok. More pretty maps 

[brooklynwx99]

10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Lol yeah ok. More pretty maps 

anything of substance to add? no? 

no wonder why mets barely post here anymore. doesn't seem to be an issue in other subforums

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Lol yeah ok. More pretty maps 

You do realize that this pattern we are in is going to continue and eventually we will see a storm. It's just a matter of time.

You ignore facts all the time

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

anything of substance to add? no? 

no wonder why mets barely post here anymore. doesn't seem to be an issue in other subforums

Keep posting. He's sarcastic. 

[Franklin0529]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You do realize that this pattern we are in is going to continue and eventually we will see a storm. It's just a matter of time.

You ignore facts all the time

Been waiting all winter. Just because it was cold an got a couple storms with 2" doesn't make it good lol.. I think everyone is just ready for Spring with how bad we've been shafted this year. I think next weekend may be our last shot 

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, MJO812 said:

The issue this winter was the PV.  Suppression. 

The issue has been the storm tracks which have been favoring the higher elevations and LES zones. 
 

 

[psv88]

29 today. I have a legit glacier in the backyard. Mounds of solid ice. Pretty cool 

[Rjay]

55 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Lol yeah ok. More pretty maps 

Next time we're handing out timeouts

[Rjay]

45 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

anything of substance to add? no? 

no wonder why mets barely post here anymore. doesn't seem to be an issue in other subforums

Stop.  Don't let an idiot stop you from posting here.  

[Rjay]

38 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You do realize that this pattern we are in is going to continue and eventually we will see a storm. It's just a matter of time.

You ignore facts all the time

This is not necessarily true and @brooklynwx99would tell you that himself. 

[mattinpa]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

we'll have more chances into March. cold with -AO/-EPO persisting

Thanks, good to see the writeups. Maybe the pattern needed to break down a little to get a storm to hit. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Franklin0529 said:

Been waiting all winter. Just because it was cold an got a couple storms with 2" doesn't make it good lol.. I think everyone is just ready for Spring with how bad we've been shafted this year. I think next weekend may be our last shot 

March should be good for cold and snow until the MJO heads into the warm phases which might be mid March 

[Franklin0529]

Just now, MJO812 said:

March should be good for cold and snow until the MJO heads into the warm phases which might be mid March 

I know one thing, I won't trust a model unless it's inside 3-4 days. This was brutal 

[cleetussnow]

2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

I know one thing, I won't trust a model unless it's inside 3-4 days. This was brutal 

Theres been way worse model busts than that one I can tell you but yeah. Every model last Friday had a coastal on the bullseye or close. Disheartening. You can’t write off the next one because the last one failed. Recency bias. 

[donsutherland1]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

Those pattern specifics were are direct outcome of the record air and SSTs this winter across the globe. I understand that you are using a linear approach in your analysis of the winter pattern across the Northern Hemisphere. But when SST thresholds are crossed we can see non-linear outcomes. Such that a few tenths of a of degree temperature shift in one SST area can cause a regional shift of a much greater magnitude in other areas. 

Changing the structure of the 500mb pattern by what seems like a small amount along with a faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet can lead to non-linear outcomes. Such that it can shift what would have been a 25” to 50”or greater snowfall season in NYC to one under 20” on the season. So your marginal impact on snowfall statement could work under a linear understanding but not if we have experienced threshold effects acting as a force multiplier. This is an interesting conversation and I can see how you came to your description and understanding. It could be a small SST difference in a region like the WPAC east of Japan accelerated the Pacific Jet just enough to prevent a benchmark storm track from emerging and lead to the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. That right there is the difference between a 25” to 50” season and one with under 20” of snowfall. 

The same can be said for the temperatures. By warming the global temperatures by just a few degrees, our local winter average temperatures could have been 3-5 degrees colder under a similar winter pattern from the 1970s into early 1990s. This would have also meant that the 10° low this winter in NYC could have been a 0 to -2 in that colder era. 

 

 

 

My take on snowfall averages and distribution is that we have seen a marked shift since the 1960s. The first colder winter regime from the 1960s into early 1990s featured a very stable distribution near the middle of the snowfall range. So that many seasons were in the 19” to 30” range around NYC and the coast. Very few seasons under 15” and over 31”. This all changed since the 1990s with very few 19-30” seasons and many more under 15” and over 31”. So the great outcomes from 09-10 to 17-18 were masking this shift as the climate has continued to warm.

Since 18-19 we have been in a much faster Northern Stream of the Pacific regime leading to only one snowy season in spots like NYC in the last 7 seasons. This is directly a function of the warmer winters combined with the lack of benchmark storm tracks. So cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks have dominated. 

From the 60s into the early 90s we had multiple ways to reach the 19” to 30” snowfall range around NYC. So we didn’t have to exclusively rely on benchmark storm tracks like we have since the 90s. The lack of benchmark storm tracks has resulted in the NYC and other local sites 7 year snowfall averages dropping into the 14” to 18” range. We are going to need a return to BM tracks next several winters for our area to avoid  its least snowy decade so soon after our snowiest one during the 2010s. 

So I am open to possible changes in the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet in coming winters. But if there isn’t a big shift away from this regime over the next 3-5 winters, then it’s possible it will become permanent or at least semi permanent. So 40/70 is mischaracterizing my position on the future. As I am always open to new data should it present itself in the future. I for one hope we can at least introduce some degree of a return to benchmark tracks in the future if only a weaker reflection of the 09-10 to 17-18 era. 

 

 

Great post, Bluewave.

I agree with you about non-linear effects. Jennifer Francis has highlighted the connection between a warming Arctic and downstream impacts in the mid-latitudes. The quantification of the share of climate change vs. internal variability on specific patterns isn't yet as robust as other areas in attribution science. The existence of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) has also contributed to long-duration patterns (one saw this in some of the recent persistent heat in Mexico/SW U.S. from the late spring into the fall). My reference about slightly colder than it would otherwise have been refers to the magnitude of cold given the pattern that prevailed. Now, if the pattern would not have prevailed absent climate change, then there's a larger impact. I reserve judgment on that until attribution improves. It is plausible and perhaps likely that there's a larger impact.

Changes in extreme temperatures are larger than changes in means. That's why I am confident that NYC would have easily been in the single digits in January were it not for climate change. It's why Baton Rouge and Phoenix had months that were hotter, by far, than anything that would have been expected given just linear warming.

On seasonal snowfall, I believe climate change is playing a role, as well and that NYC is in the early stages of a structural decline in snowfall. Internal variability is noisy, but it should be clear by the mid-2030s. Already, one has seen such declines in seasonal snowfall in such cities as Richmond and Washington. The marine heatwave-driven changes in the MJO, Pacific Jet, and warmer temperatures overall are all mechanisms by which climate change may be driving the structural decline in seasonal snowfall. I believe these mechanisms, and others, are topics of active research, but worry that the research could be disrupted or terminated in the current political environment. 

Have a great evening.

[donsutherland1]

A very cold air mass covers the East. The temperature could fall into the teens tomorrow morning from Baltimore northward into New England. The cold will likely persist through the remainder of the week. Conditions will moderate during the weekend.

A storm passing well south and east of New York City will bring a significant snowfall to parts of the lower Middle Atlantic region tomorrow into Thursday. The forecast 500 mb pattern for eastern North America has some similarities to January 29-31, 2010 but is even more suppressed. A period of light snow or flurries is still possible in the New York City area from the associated upper-level low. The light snow event could bring a coating to a half-inch of snow. Somewhat higher amounts are possible from central New Jersey southward and across eastern Suffolk County.

The models continue to show 8" or more snow in Norfolk. The last time Norfolk saw 8" or more snow from a storm was January 3-4, 2018 when 10.3" fell. Since 1895, there were 17 storms that brought 8" or more snow to Norfolk. The breakdown for NYC snowfall was: 6" or more: 18%; Less than 1": 76%; No measurable snowfall: 53%; No snowfall: 41%.

Currently, the PNA is above +1.000. In January and the first half of February, a strongly positive PNA would be conducive toward facilitating patterns favorable for potentially major snowfalls in the New York City area. During the second half of February, such a strong PNA works against such snowstorms due to the shorter wave lengths. The storm this week will be no exception.

Overall, generally colder outcome is likely during the second half of February. Precipitation will likely be near or somewhat above normal. However, there are growing indications for a major pattern shift during the first week of March. Some of the guidance begins to break down the pattern in the closing days of February. The CFSv2 is currently a cold outlier.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions have peaked and are beginning to fade. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was -16.91 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.917 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 91% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.2° (2.7° below normal).

 

[brooklynwx99]

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

This is not necessarily true and @brooklynwx99would tell you that himself. 

yup, some people never understand that good patterns just increase the odds for snow, not guarantee it. we literally just saw that play out this week!

[MJO812]

Nice ridge in the west

[MJO812]

Hecs

[ChillinIt]

BOMB!!! just saying....

[MJO812]

Just now, ChillinIt said:

BOMB!!! just saying....

Beautiful ridge 

Over 200 hours away so thread lightly but the ensembles also have a signal.  This time we should be in phase 8. 

[Snowguy66]

Hecs

How much snow? Sign me up. I am ready to track.


.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Snowguy66 said:

How much snow? Sign me up. I am ready to track.


.

Too far out to ask that question.

 

[Franklin0529]

Looks familiar. This time next week it'll be congrats Virginia Beach 

[Franklin0529]

2 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said:

How much snow? Sign me up. I am ready to track.


.

Shows 2ft. But it can't be trusted obviously 

[Snowguy66]

How much snow? Sign me up. I am ready to track.


.

I think most of our big storms have come after a relatively normal temperature temperatures or above normal temperatures. You just need enough cold air to filter in when a big storm develops.. I just don't remember many storms that were really coming in after our care was already in place.. i'm sure there have been something but that's not the norm.


.

[Rjay]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Beautiful ridge 

Over 200 hours away so thread lightly but the ensembles also have a signal.  This time we should be in phase 8. 

Who's starting the thread? 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Looks familiar. This time next week it'll be congrats Virginia Beach 

We are most likely going to get a storm. It's good to be cautious this far out but it's a really good pattern .