February 2025

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 71 (2011)
NYC: 68 (1981)
LGA: 67 (2011)
JFK: 67 (2011)


Lows:

EWR: -1 (1979)
NYC: 0 (1979)
LGA: 0 (1979)
JFK: 2 (1979)

Historical:

 

1899 - While much of the central and eastern U.S. was recovering from the most severe cold wave of modern history, the temperature at San Francisco soared to 80 degrees to establish a record for month of February. (David Ludlum)

1959 - Some of the higher elevations of California were in the midst of a five day storm which produced 189 inches of snow, a single storm record for North America. (13th-19th) (David Ludlum)

1987 - A small but intense low pressure system combined with northerly upslope winds to produce eight inches of snow in five hours at Meeteetsie WY, located southeast of Cody. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms soaked the Central Gulf Coast Region with heavy rain. Totals in southern Louisiana ranged up to 8.50 inches near the town of Ridge, with 6.55 inches at Plaguemine. Thunderstorms in northern Florida drenched Apalachicola with 5.41 inches of rain in 24 hours, and produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Mayo. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Low pressure off the coast of North Carolina brought freezing rain and heavy snow to Virginia and the Carolinas. Snowfall totals in Virginia ranged up to 18 inches at Franklin. Freezing rain reached a thickness of two inches around Charlotte NC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - An intense but slow moving Pacific storm worked its way across Utah over a two day period. The storm blanketed the valleys with 4 to 12 inches of snow, and produced up to 42 inches of snow in the mountains. Heavy snow also fell across northern Arizona. Williams received 22 inches of snow, and 12 inches was reported along the south rim of the Grand Canyon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1992: A thunderstorm spawned a powerful F4 tornado for so far north for the time of the year in southern Van Wert County in Ohio. The tornado touched down just west of US Route 127 and traveled northeastward for about 3 miles. One house was completely leveled, and nine others experienced severe damage. Six people were injured. 

Was this the famous Norfolk and Atlantic City snowstorm that was a big bust up here, Tony?

 

1989 - Low pressure off the coast of North Carolina brought freezing rain and heavy snow to Virginia and the Carolinas. Snowfall totals in Virginia ranged up to 18 inches at Franklin. Freezing rain reached a thickness of two inches around Charlotte NC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There was also a couple of seasons like that in late 80s, too.

Indeed, I have been saying this for months lol.  88-89 is one example.

[Brian5671]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Was this the famous Norfolk and Atlantic City snowstorm that was a big bust up here, Tony?

 

1989 - Low pressure off the coast of North Carolina brought freezing rain and heavy snow to Virginia and the Carolinas. Snowfall totals in Virginia ranged up to 18 inches at Franklin. Freezing rain reached a thickness of two inches around Charlotte NC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

it was later than now-like Feb 24th or something like that.

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

While climate change, particularly through marine heatwaves, likely played a role in shaping the overall hemispheric pattern and contributed to pattern persistence, the pattern specifics likely drove the January outcome and February outcome to date. Pattern specifics are a function of internal variability within the context of a warming climate. 

Climate change likely made this winter somewhat warmer than it might otherwise have been, but that likely had only a marginal impact on the snowfall. Absent climate change, New York City would likely have seen its coldest temperature reach the single digits rather than 10°.

Those pattern specifics were are direct outcome of the record air and SSTs this winter across the globe. I understand that you are using a linear approach in your analysis of the winter pattern across the Northern Hemisphere. But when SST thresholds are crossed we can see non-linear outcomes. Such that a few tenths of a of degree temperature shift in one SST area can cause a regional shift of a much greater magnitude in other areas. 

Changing the structure of the 500mb pattern by what seems like a small amount along with a faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet can lead to non-linear outcomes. Such that it can shift what would have been a 25” to 50”or greater snowfall season in NYC to one under 20” on the season. So your marginal impact on snowfall statement could work under a linear understanding but not if we have experienced threshold effects acting as a force multiplier. This is an interesting conversation and I can see how you came to your description and understanding. It could be a small SST difference in a region like the WPAC east of Japan accelerated the Pacific Jet just enough to prevent a benchmark storm track from emerging and lead to the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. That right there is the difference between a 25” to 50” season and one with under 20” of snowfall. 

The same can be said for the temperatures. By warming the global temperatures by just a few degrees, our local winter average temperatures could have been 3-5 degrees colder under a similar winter pattern from the 1970s into early 1990s. This would have also meant that the 10° low this winter in NYC could have been a 0 to -2 in that colder era. 

 

 

 

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Finally, in terms of longer-term snowfall averages, I suspect that the combination of climate change and internal variability are responsible for the recent decline with NYC perhaps in the very early stages of a structural decline in seasonal snowfall (I don't believe the area running from Boston to Caribou is currently experiencing any long-term decline in seasonal snowfall; gains in moisture as winters warm may actually be leading to an increase at Caribou right now). By the mid-2030s, the impact of climate change should be more evident with New York City's 30-year average snowfall falling to or perhaps somewhat below 20". Even then, there will still be periodic snowy winters and big snowstorms for decades to come.

My take on snowfall averages and distribution is that we have seen a marked shift since the 1960s. The first colder winter regime from the 1960s into early 1990s featured a very stable distribution near the middle of the snowfall range. So that many seasons were in the 19” to 30” range around NYC and the coast. Very few seasons under 15” and over 31”. This all changed since the 1990s with very few 19-30” seasons and many more under 15” and over 31”. So the great outcomes from 09-10 to 17-18 were masking this shift as the climate has continued to warm.

Since 18-19 we have been in a much faster Northern Stream of the Pacific regime leading to only one snowy season in spots like NYC in the last 7 seasons. This is directly a function of the warmer winters combined with the lack of benchmark storm tracks. So cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks have dominated. 

From the 60s into the early 90s we had multiple ways to reach the 19” to 30” snowfall range around NYC. So we didn’t have to exclusively rely on benchmark storm tracks like we have since the 90s. The lack of benchmark storm tracks has resulted in the NYC and other local sites 7 year snowfall averages dropping into the 14” to 18” range. We are going to need a return to BM tracks next several winters for our area to avoid  its least snowy decade so soon after our snowiest one during the 2010s. 

So I am open to possible changes in the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet in coming winters. But if there isn’t a big shift away from this regime over the next 3-5 winters, then it’s possible it will become permanent or at least semi permanent. So 40/70 is mischaracterizing my position on the future. As I am always open to new data should it present itself in the future. I for one hope we can at least introduce some degree of a return to benchmark tracks in the future if only a weaker reflection of the 09-10 to 17-18 era. 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Northof78 said:

As it should, historically (looking back over 100,000's of years) we are currently in roughly the 80th percentile of cold vs. warm (80% of the time the world was warmer than current). Over periods of time it should normally warm off these levels and the ice caps should melt, if the past repeats itself, does man have a meaningful impact to the natural course of the warming (if there is a statistically signifcant one), no way we can say with certainty. 

An element of the warming is certaintly anthropogenic, but how much is nebulous.

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Those pattern specifics were are direct outcome of the record air and SSTs this winter across the globe. I understand that you are using a linear approach in your analysis of the winter pattern across the Northern Hemisphere. But when SST thresholds are crossed we can see non-linear outcomes. Such that a few tenths of a of degree temperature shift in one SST area can cause a regional shift of a much greater magnitude in other areas. 

Changing the structure of the 500mb pattern by what seems like a small amount along with a faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet can lead to non-linear outcomes. Such that it can shift what would have been a 25” to 50”or greater snowfall season in NYC to one under 20” on the season. So your marginal impact on snowfall statement could work under a linear understanding but not if we have experienced threshold effects acting as a force multiplier. This is an interesting conversation and I can see how you came to your description and understanding. It could be a small SST difference in a region like the WPAC east of Japan accelerated the Pacific Jet just enough to prevent a benchmark storm track from emerging and lead to the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. That right there is the difference between a 25” to 50” season and one with under 20” of snowfall. 

The same can be said for the temperatures. By warming the global temperatures by just a few degrees, our local winter average temperatures could have been 3-5 degrees colder under a similar winter pattern from the 1970s into early 1990s. This would have also meant that the 10° low this winter in NYC could have been a 0 to -2 in that colder era. 

 

 

 

My take on snowfall averages and distribution is that we have seen a marked shift since the 1960s. The first colder winter regime from the 1960s into early 1990s featured a very stable distribution near the middle of the snowfall range. So that many seasons were in the 19” to 30” range around NYC and the coast. Very few seasons under 15” and over 31”. This all changed since the 1990s with very few 19-30” seasons and many more under 15” and over 31”. So the great outcomes from 09-10 to 17-18 were masking this shift as the climate has continued to warm.

Since 18-19 we have been in a much faster Northern Stream of the Pacific regime leading to only one snowy season in spots like NYC in the last 7 seasons. This is directly a function of the warmer winters combined with the lack of benchmark storm tracks. So cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks have dominated. 

From the 60s into the early 90s we had multiple ways to reach the 19” to 30” snowfall range around NYC. So we didn’t have to exclusively rely on benchmark storm tracks like we have since the 90s. The lack of benchmark storm tracks has resulted in the NYC and other local sites 7 year snowfall averages dropping into the 14” to 18” range. We are going to need a return to BM tracks next several winters for our area to avoid  its least snowy decade so soon after our snowiest one during the 2010s. 

So I am open to possible changes in the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet in coming winters. But if there isn’t a big shift away from this regime over the next 3-5 winters, then it’s possible it will become permanent or at least semi permanent. So 40/70 is mischaracterizing my position on the future. As I an always open to new data should it present itself in the future. I for one hope we can at least introduce some degree of a return to benchmark tracks in the future if only a weaker reflection of the 09-10 to 17-18 era. 

 

 

First of all, I have no issue with the bolded part of your statement....that isn't really speculation, or a hypothesis since we have decades of data to validate the notion that the climate is in fact warming.

As far as your assertions regarding the warmer SSTs east of Japan inducing a faster northern jet that is making BM tracks exceedingly difficult, that may very well be true, but I don't that accounts for all of the missed opportunity....there are always going to nuances within the larger scale flow due to variability; CC doesn't prevent that. Frankly, having a confluence or a PV lobe too close in ME is just bad luck. Maybe your point regarding the jet is part of the reason why these storms aren't phasing proficiently, but we haven't had great ridges out west, either.

Here is an excerpt from the blog post that I made on Friday night, cancelling this storm (never bought in for this reason) as guidance was ostensibly converging on a major NE blizzard.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/02/major-storm-threat-next-week-likely-to.html

 

 

However, there is ample reason to doubt that this system will phase proficiently enough with the southern stream wave moving up the coast to impact the forecast area in a major way. Note the similarity in the forecast position of the PNA ridge next week in the above image to that which preceded the major storm threat of January 11th.

 

This has been a very prevalent feature in the seasonal mean, which may at least partially explain the relative absence of major snowfalls across the region despite the relative cold temperatures.

 

 

 

 

In closing, I have a question for you....why do you think the 1950s and 1980s, especially the 1988-1992 period, were so poor for snowfall on the east coast?

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

How many major NE US blizzards have seen with se-ne oriented PNA ridge off of the west coast? I'm going to venture to say not many-

That works further down the coast, but it limits phasing potential and ability to turn the corner.

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How many major NE US blizzards have seen with se-ne oriented PNA ridge off of the west coast? I'm going to venture to say not many-

That works further down the coast, but it limits phasing potential and ability to turn the corner.

Agreed-you want the axis of the PNA ridge to be over Idaho, not off the west coast

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Agreed-you want the axis of the PNA ridge to be over Idaho, not off the west coast

You also don't want it leaning to the NE like that. 

We are certainly experiencing CC, but we have also always experienced shitty patterns that have lasted for the better part of a decade....maybe Chris is 100% correct and CC is causing this, but all I am saying is that that shouldn't be assumed because we need more time. I have gone on record as saying if we get through the early 2030's and are still struggling like this, then I will buy it. Chris said he is open to more data in the future, well I am, too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

45 minutes ago, bluewave said:

But if there isn’t a big shift away from this regime over the next 3-5 winters, then it’s possible it will become permanent or at least semi permanent.

Rereading and this line near the end is very fair. I see why you felt I mischaracterized your stance. I am at work and don't always read exhuastively.

I would give it until past the early 2030s, through the solar min and anticipated Pacific phase change.

[Krs4Lfe]

I think we can all discount the 12z GFS, showing a lobe of the TPV descending onto the Northeast at the end of next week. Likely, that would lead to a stormier regime as well, but the more Ryan Maue is discussing it online, the less it'll likely occur. I would expect highs to be consistently around 50 degrees by next weekend. Not too far off from when we usually have our first 50s but I'd expect the 12z GFS to snap back to reality by the next run. 12z CMC and 12z Euro show no precip over next 7 days and mild temperatures. Good news is that there's plenty of cold bottled up in Canada and northern tier so maybe some of that can spill down our way when we would need it in order for it snow in March

[LibertyBell]

42 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I think we can all discount the 12z GFS, showing a lobe of the TPV descending onto the Northeast at the end of next week. Likely, that would lead to a stormier regime as well, but the more Ryan Maue is discussing it online, the less it'll likely occur. I would expect highs to be consistently around 50 degrees by next weekend. Not too far off from when we usually have our first 50s but I'd expect the 12z GFS to snap back to reality by the next run. 12z CMC and 12z Euro show no precip over next 7 days and mild temperatures. Good news is that there's plenty of cold bottled up in Canada and northern tier so maybe some of that can spill down our way when we would need it in order for it snow in March

Is Ryan Maue a protege of JB?

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

First of all, I have no issue with the bolded part of your statement....that isn't really speculation, or a hypothesis since we have decades of data to validate the notion that the climate is in fact warming.

As far as your assertions regarding the warmer SSTs east of Japan inducing a faster northern jet that is making BM tracks exceedingly difficult, that may very well be true, but I don't that accounts for all of the missed opportunity....there are always going to nuances within the larger scale flow due to variability; CC doesn't prevent that. Frankly, having a confluence or a PV lobe too close in ME is just bad luck. Maybe your point regarding the jet is part of the reason why these storms aren't phasing proficiently, but we haven't had great ridges out west, either.

Here is an excerpt from the blog post that I made on Friday night, cancelling this storm (never bought in for this reason) as guidance was ostensibly converging on a major NE blizzard.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/02/major-storm-threat-next-week-likely-to.html

 

 

However, there is ample reason to doubt that this system will phase proficiently enough with the southern stream wave moving up the coast to impact the forecast area in a major way. Note the similarity in the forecast position of the PNA ridge next week in the above image to that which preceded the major storm threat of January 11th.

 

This has been a very prevalent feature in the seasonal mean, which may at least partially explain the relative absence of major snowfalls across the region despite the relative cold temperatures.

 

 

 

 

In closing, I have a question for you....why do you think the 1950s and 1980s, especially the 1988-1992 period, were so poor for snowfall on the east coast?

 

 

1990 and 1991 were two of our hottest years on record with 22 out of 24 above normal months, there was also a solar max around then.  

[Krs4Lfe]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Is Ryan Maue a protege of JB?

I'll never understand the constant hyping for cold and snow (or any extremes of that nature) that those two do on social media. It trickles down to weather boards and forums as well. Not in any way that is intentionally malicious, but the amount of times we've seen pretty Day 15 OPS or Ensembles posted on here, just for them to not verify *imagine the shock there*. And then we sit back and do :/ how did that happen, as if we haven't been doing that since 2019, knowing they probably won't verify (with the exception of 2021 winter and January 2022). 

[HeadInTheClouds]

16 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I'll never understand the constant hyping for cold and snow (or any extremes of that nature) that those two do on social media. It trickles down to weather boards and forums as well. Not in any way that is intentionally malicious, but the amount of times we've seen pretty Day 15 OPS or Ensembles posted on here, just for them to not verify *imagine the shock there*. And then we sit back and do :/ how did that happen, as if we haven't been doing that since 2019, knowing they probably won't verify (with the exception of 2021 winter and January 2022). 

The cold has been there and so have the opportunities as well. It just hasn't worked out in the snow dept for many in NYC metro but it's likely that February is below normal temp wise and that makes 3 months in a row of below normal temps. When was the last time that has happened? Not everybody has done so poorly in the snow dept either. I have 24 inches so far which is below normal but not that bad and we still have 3-4 weeks of winter that can still produce especially north of I84 where i reside. 

[TJW014]

Wasted potential this winter. People have been calling me that for the last 10 years. 

[JustinRP37]

I'm not so sure this jump to spring many are claiming to see is going to be happen as quickly as claimed. It is looking like the first half of March could be average (still above freezing across much of the forum area) to just below average. I mean sure 40s are warmer than we have had, but 40s in the city are still 30s and lower in the Catskills and points north. We'll see, but models seem to be backing off "early spring". I think March will finish right about averages for temperatures and average or below for precipitation. 

[EastonSN+]

The EPO won't go away

[jm1220]

46 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The EPO won't go away

And looks like it could mean more dry cold to SWFE/cutter. Pacific jet looks fast, ridge axis is off the W Coast, NAO looks neutral to positive.

[BxEngine]

2 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I think we can all discount the 12z GFS, showing a lobe of the TPV descending onto the Northeast at the end of next week. Likely, that would lead to a stormier regime as well, but the more Ryan Maue is discussing it online, the less it'll likely occur. I would expect highs to be consistently around 50 degrees by next weekend. Not too far off from when we usually have our first 50s but I'd expect the 12z GFS to snap back to reality by the next run. 12z CMC and 12z Euro show no precip over next 7 days and mild temperatures. Good news is that there's plenty of cold bottled up in Canada and northern tier so maybe some of that can spill down our way when we would need it in order for it snow in March

So…youve spent every post here complaining about people not using the science, and just doing “modelology”, but you want to guess at what future runs of a shitty model are gonna show, not because of what its trending towards or away from, but because “you dont believe it”. 
 

 

[vegan_edible]

4 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

So…youve spent every post here complaining about people not using the science, and just doing “modelology”, but you want to guess at what future runs of a shitty model are gonna show, not because of what its trending towards or away from, but because “you dont believe it”. 
 

 

 

[Krs4Lfe]

4 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

So…youve spent every post here complaining about people not using the science, and just doing “modelology”, but you want to guess at what future runs of a shitty model are gonna show, not because of what its trending towards or away from, but because “you dont believe it”. 
 

 

Sort of. I just have a feeling it'll trend badly like it always seems to 

[EastonSN+]

25 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

And looks like it could mean more dry cold to SWFE/cutter. Pacific jet looks fast, ridge axis is off the W Coast, NAO looks neutral to positive.

Correct it's dry but unfortunately cold when we want to warm up right.

[LibertyBell]

30 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Correct it's dry but unfortunately cold when we want to warm up right.

Not as cold as it has been though.  40s with sunshine are pretty tolerable right now. Might even hit 50s a few times.

[Franklin0529]

Perfectly sums up our winter 

[Brian5671]

24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Not as cold as it has been though.  40s with sunshine are pretty tolerable right now. Might even hit 50s a few times.

Sun angle increasing nicely now so sun will feel alot warmer than a month ago

[MJO812]

Gfs has more snow next week

[SnoSki14]

34 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs has more snow next week

Lol sure Jan

[Krs4Lfe]

34 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs has more snow next week

Sure, next year maybe. 

[brooklynwx99]

we'll have more chances into March. cold with -AO/-EPO persisting