February 2025

[JustinRP37]

I've moved this winter back down to the C-/C range from a skier's point of view. I cannot give it a higher score at this time because of how it always seems to rain during the holiday weekends this season killing conditions and creating treacherous, icy slopes. Mountains even in Vermont were struggling with heavy icing today and for the first time I can remember, there were widespread refunds. The temperatures have been decent and sustained cooler than average, but it looks like the season may have an abrupt end in March. Our winters are just too short lately. Hoping to still get up to Vermont and the Catskills through the end of March (maybe even a Tremblant trip), but we will see! 

[bluewave]

Snowfall across the coastal zones has pretty much reverted to the 2020s mean this season. Our new 6 year average for the 2020s has been generally between 10-20 inches. There have been a few exceptions like 20-21 areawide and locally in eastern sections during 22. This is the new average snowfall range with the very fast Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. It leads to cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks beginning in 18-19. Since we have need benchmark tracks to go over 20” in the local means since the 1990s. It will be interesting to see if we can change up this storm track pattern through 28-29 in order to avoid a permanent shift under 20” if this continues into the 2030s and beyond. The current 7 station average for the 2020s is 16.3”.
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	T	0.0	3.3	4.6	8.4	0.3	T	16.5
2024-2025	0.0	0.0	3.5	3.7	6.2	M	M	13.4
2023-2024	0.0	T	T	3.1	9.1	T	0.0	12.2
2022-2023	0.0	T	0.1	T	2.0	0.6	0.0	2.7
2021-2022	0.0	0.1	0.1	14.6	2.3	0.8	0.0	17.9
2020-2021	T	0.0	11.9	3.2	30.6	T	0.0	45.7
2019-2020	0.0	T	4.2	2.7	T	T	T	6.9

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.0	T	2.7	4.2	7.0	0.1	T	13.9
2024-2025	0.0	0.0	2.8	3.0	6.7	M	M	12.5
2023-2024	0.0	T	T	2.3	5.2	T	0.0	7.5
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	T	T	2.2	0.1	0.0	2.3
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.2	15.3	2.0	0.4	0.0	17.9
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	10.5	2.1	26.0	T	0.0	38.6
2019-2020	0.0	0.0	2.5	2.3	T	T	T	4.8

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.0	T	2.7	5.6	7.1	0.3	T	15.7
2024-2025	0.0	0.0	3.2	4.5	7.3	M	M	15.0
2023-2024	0.0	T	T	3.9	6.6	T	T	10.5
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	0.4	T	2.9	0.1	0.0	3.4
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.6	20.4	2.7	1.6	0.0	25.3
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	10.2	1.9	23.2	T	T	35.3
2019-2020	0.0	T	2.0	2.6	T	T	T	4.6

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.0	T	2.1	4.3	8.0	0.2	T	14.5
2024-2025	0.0	0.0	3.0	2.5	6.4	M	M	11.9
2023-2024	0.0	T	T	2.4	10.4	T	0.0	12.8
2022-2023	0.0	T	T	T	1.7	0.4	0.0	2.1
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.2	17.8	3.2	0.5	0.0	21.7
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	7.2	0.9	26.4	T	T	34.5
2019-2020	0.0	T	1.9	1.9	T	T	T	3.8

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	T	0.0	2.4	6.9	7.6	0.6	T	17.5
2024-2025	0.0	0.0	2.1	2.7	6.7	M	M	11.5
2023-2024	0.0	T	T	3.1	7.8	0.0	0.0	10.9
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	0.4	T	3.0	1.6	0.0	5.0
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.3	31.8	3.3	1.6	0.0	37.0
2020-2021	T	0.0	7.5	1.1	24.9	T	T	33.5
2019-2020	0.0	0.1	4.2	2.5	0.0	T	T	6.8

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	T	T	3.0	6.4	10.4	0.4	T	20.0
2024-2025	0.0	0.0	1.3	4.1	12.6	M	M	18.0
2023-2024	0.0	T	T	5.5	10.1	0.0	T	15.6
2022-2023	0.0	T	0.8	T	4.1	T	0.0	4.9
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.2	20.8	4.7	2.0	0.0	27.7
2020-2021	T	T	10.0	3.1	30.7	0.0	0.0	43.8
2019-2020	0.0	T	5.5	4.6	T	T	T	10.1

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.0	T	2.1	4.2	9.2	0.4	T	15.9
2024-2025	0.0	0.0	4.0	5.0	4.1	M	M	13.1
2023-2024	0.0	0.0	0.0	6.3	16.0	T	0.0	22.3
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	T	T	2.0	1.3	0.0	3.3
2021-2022	0.0	T	T	12.0	2.6	0.9	0.0	15.5
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	6.5	0.2	30.6	0.0	0.0	37.3
2019-2020	0.0	0.0	2.0	1.8	T	0.0	T	3.8

 

[Allsnow]

Models have that it’s over look going into March…

 

[LibertyBell]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Snowfall across the coastal zones has pretty much reverted to the 2020s mean this season. Our new 6 year average for the 2020s has been generally between 10-20 inches. There have been a few exceptions like 20-21 areawide and locally in eastern sections during 22. This is the new average snowfall range with the very fast Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. It leads to cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks beginning in 18-19. Since we have need benchmark tracks to go over 20” in the local means since the 1990s. It will be interesting to see if we can change up this storm track pattern through 28-29 in order to avoid a permanent shift under 20” if this continues into the 2030s and beyond. The current 7 station average for the 2020s is 16.3”.
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	T	0.0	3.3	4.6	8.4	0.3	T	16.5
2024-2025	0.0	0.0	3.5	3.7	6.2	M	M	13.4
2023-2024	0.0	T	T	3.1	9.1	T	0.0	12.2
2022-2023	0.0	T	0.1	T	2.0	0.6	0.0	2.7
2021-2022	0.0	0.1	0.1	14.6	2.3	0.8	0.0	17.9
2020-2021	T	0.0	11.9	3.2	30.6	T	0.0	45.7
2019-2020	0.0	T	4.2	2.7	T	T	T	6.9

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.0	T	2.7	4.2	7.0	0.1	T	13.9
2024-2025	0.0	0.0	2.8	3.0	6.7	M	M	12.5
2023-2024	0.0	T	T	2.3	5.2	T	0.0	7.5
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	T	T	2.2	0.1	0.0	2.3
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.2	15.3	2.0	0.4	0.0	17.9
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	10.5	2.1	26.0	T	0.0	38.6
2019-2020	0.0	0.0	2.5	2.3	T	T	T	4.8

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.0	T	2.7	5.6	7.1	0.3	T	15.7
2024-2025	0.0	0.0	3.2	4.5	7.3	M	M	15.0
2023-2024	0.0	T	T	3.9	6.6	T	T	10.5
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	0.4	T	2.9	0.1	0.0	3.4
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.6	20.4	2.7	1.6	0.0	25.3
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	10.2	1.9	23.2	T	T	35.3
2019-2020	0.0	T	2.0	2.6	T	T	T	4.6

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.0	T	2.1	4.3	8.0	0.2	T	14.5
2024-2025	0.0	0.0	3.0	2.5	6.4	M	M	11.9
2023-2024	0.0	T	T	2.4	10.4	T	0.0	12.8
2022-2023	0.0	T	T	T	1.7	0.4	0.0	2.1
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.2	17.8	3.2	0.5	0.0	21.7
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	7.2	0.9	26.4	T	T	34.5
2019-2020	0.0	T	1.9	1.9	T	T	T	3.8

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	T	0.0	2.4	6.9	7.6	0.6	T	17.5
2024-2025	0.0	0.0	2.1	2.7	6.7	M	M	11.5
2023-2024	0.0	T	T	3.1	7.8	0.0	0.0	10.9
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	0.4	T	3.0	1.6	0.0	5.0
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.3	31.8	3.3	1.6	0.0	37.0
2020-2021	T	0.0	7.5	1.1	24.9	T	T	33.5
2019-2020	0.0	0.1	4.2	2.5	0.0	T	T	6.8

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	T	T	3.0	6.4	10.4	0.4	T	20.0
2024-2025	0.0	0.0	1.3	4.1	12.6	M	M	18.0
2023-2024	0.0	T	T	5.5	10.1	0.0	T	15.6
2022-2023	0.0	T	0.8	T	4.1	T	0.0	4.9
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.2	20.8	4.7	2.0	0.0	27.7
2020-2021	T	T	10.0	3.1	30.7	0.0	0.0	43.8
2019-2020	0.0	T	5.5	4.6	T	T	T	10.1

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.0	T	2.1	4.2	9.2	0.4	T	15.9
2024-2025	0.0	0.0	4.0	5.0	4.1	M	M	13.1
2023-2024	0.0	0.0	0.0	6.3	16.0	T	0.0	22.3
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	T	T	2.0	1.3	0.0	3.3
2021-2022	0.0	T	T	12.0	2.6	0.9	0.0	15.5
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	6.5	0.2	30.6	0.0	0.0	37.3
2019-2020	0.0	0.0	2.0	1.8	T	0.0	T	3.8

 

Question, why does a fast pacific prevent benchmark tracks vs the suppressed cutter and hugger tracks? What keeps them going but prevents benchmark tracks specifically?  I thought that was more controlled by the SE ridge?

 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Just did a check-the only city at/over average is DC. Every other is below to well below. Safe to say this was a huge bust.

Philly-50% of average to date

Trenton-74% of average to date

Central Park: 62% of average to date

JFK: 68% of average to date

LGA: 75% of average to date

BDR: 85% of average to date

ISP: 55% of average to date

BDL: 61% of average to date

PVD: 62% of average to date

BOS: 86% of average to date (SWFE is a good pattern for I-90 and they had 2 good ones now)

Baltimore is above average too isn't it? It's interesting how Philly is so far below normal, even more than us.  It's not been a Mid Atlantic winter, it's been a below the Mason Dixon line winter.

 

[Dan76]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Models have that it’s over look going into March…

 

Get this shit show over with.

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

I've moved this winter back down to the C-/C range from a skier's point of view. I cannot give it a higher score at this time because of how it always seems to rain during the holiday weekends this season killing conditions and creating treacherous, icy slopes. Mountains even in Vermont were struggling with heavy icing today and for the first time I can remember, there were widespread refunds. The temperatures have been decent and sustained cooler than average, but it looks like the season may have an abrupt end in March. Our winters are just too short lately. Hoping to still get up to Vermont and the Catskills through the end of March (maybe even a Tremblant trip), but we will see! 

Definitely C- here, I might even give it a D for the stupid storm we tracked for no reason that just pissed me the hell off plus the useless wind last night and the power and heat outage I had.  Now that I think about it. It's a D-!

 

[Brian5671]

57 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Models have that it’s over look going into March…

 

Haven't had a good March since 2018.    I'd be happy with a torch March this year...time to move on.

[Brian5671]

12 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

I've moved this winter back down to the C-/C range from a skier's point of view. I cannot give it a higher score at this time because of how it always seems to rain during the holiday weekends this season killing conditions and creating treacherous, icy slopes. Mountains even in Vermont were struggling with heavy icing today and for the first time I can remember, there were widespread refunds. The temperatures have been decent and sustained cooler than average, but it looks like the season may have an abrupt end in March. Our winters are just too short lately. Hoping to still get up to Vermont and the Catskills through the end of March (maybe even a Tremblant trip), but we will see! 

Yeah it's down to 2 months for skiing in the northeast generally speaking.   I went out to Breckenridge 1st week of Feb-was even warm out there lol.

[donsutherland1]

Back on Thursday, the flaws in the 500 mb pattern were showing up on some of the guidance e.g., the GFS. 

At the time, I noted:

The 18z GFS had a largely suppressed solution. It showed a big snowfall in southeastern Virginia. I've taken the 500 mb map and identified where the features have typically been for blockbuster February snowstorms that occurred after February 7th and the cluster for such snowstorms during the second half of February. Details make a difference. If the ridging is on or off the Pacific Northwest at this time of year, one will be more likely than not to see a suppressed solution.

Unfortunately, the 500 mb pattern has only deteriorated further. Below is the 2/17 0z EPS output:

The EPS pattern is remarkably similar to the GFS forecast from last Thursday. At that time, the GFS was in a distinct minority of models indicating a suppressed solution.

In January, with its longer wave lengths, ridging off the Pacific Northwest and into the Gulf of Alaska can facilitate storm tracks for significant or major snowfalls. But in the second half of February, with its shorter wave lengths, one gets suppressed solutions, as appears poised to play out.

Below are the 6" or greater snowstorm clusters for the second half of February (Clusters 2 and 3 are the ones with the KU storms):

In comparison, here are clusters for January for the dominant patterns for significant (6" or above) snowstorms:

There still remains a degree of uncertainty. That uncertainty could be the difference between a period of light snow/flurries or no snowfall whatsoever in the New York City area. At this time, the guidance has moved into a skillful range for synoptic features, so barring unexpected and unusual developments, any changes will likely be modest.

The overall point is that time of season matters. A pattern that might work very well in mid-winter e.g., January, isn't necessarily a great pattern near the end of winter (second half of February).

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Models have that it’s over look going into March…

 

Yep. Very good Multi-ensemble agreement with the EPS, GEPS and GEFS for the beginning of March 

[Krs4Lfe]

Does it look like the pattern is active across CONUS? because if the pattern is still active across the country with an injection of cold air maybe something can work out for these parts but without that activity across the country which has been lacking for much of the winter it’s hard to get something over here

[Krs4Lfe]

Well, at some point there was going to be a thaw over here after three months of below average temperatures, regardless of whether it accompanied a big storm or not but ideally what we would want is for a cold regime to redevelop for the rest of March and give us a chance at some snow considering March is a warmer month. It’s pretty much impossible for it to snow with the average temperatures.

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yep. Very good Multi-ensemble agreement with the EPS, GEPS and GEFS for the beginning of March 

A big snowstorm before the warmth will most likely happen at the end of this month or March.  Winter is just about over. 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

A big snowstorm before the warmth will most likely happen at the end of this month or March.  Winter is just about over. 

Seasonal trend argues against anything big....a lot of little events this year...yesterday's rains were the largest since 12/31/24

[MJO812]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Seasonal trend argues against anything big....a lot of little events this year...yesterday's rains were the largest since 12/31/24

I agree maybe one more moderate evenrt. I thought I was finally going to get near average snowfall with the big snowstorm on Thursday .

Looks like I will end up below 15 inches .

 

[Brian5671]

Just now, MJO812 said:

I agree maybe one more moderate evenrt. I thought I was finally going to get near average snowfall with the big snowstorm on Thursday .

Looks like I will end up below 15 inches .

 

About 18 here.   Better than the last couple of years at least and I still have a few inches of cement out here

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Question, why does a fast pacific prevent benchmark tracks vs the suppressed cutter and hugger tracks? What keeps them going but prevents benchmark tracks specifically?  I thought that was more controlled by the SE ridge?

 

One aspect of a fast Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet is shortwaves too close together like we are seeing this week leading to a suppressed outcome. So when you have lows coming into the West at the same time as one is trying to amplify along the East Coast it acts as a kicker low or trough. 

The next pattern is a hugger track. These were the string of small snows around NYC this month. Too much amplitude on the Southeast Ridge so we get the lows riding too far north leading to mixed precipitation events. 

And then this weekend was a record setting cutter for an -AO below -5 and a Greenland Block of +500 meters. In the old days we wouldn’t have had a Southeast Ridge link up with such an intense Greenland Block. My guess is that warm water feedback from the record Atlantic SSTs are combining with the faster Pacific to create this pattern. I posted composites a while back showing how in the 1950s to early 1970s when we had troughs in the West and a -AO there would often be a trough in the East instead of a Southeast Ridge. So in this case a little too much spacing between lows leading to one amplifying too much.

So we have been seeing multiple ways not to get the benchmark track which has been a prerequisite since the 1990s for seasons in the 20-30” range and above. This has been a frequent occurrence since the 18-19 winter. It’s possible that this is related to competing marine heatwaves in the Pacific and Atlantic Basins. Could even be the IO marine heatwaves also. But we would probably need a research effort in order to confirm why the Pacific Jet has been following this type of pattern.

[SACRUS]

 

32 / 9 windy and for some 72 hours below the freezing mark and lows in the lower teens inland near single digits.  Storm has been following a 3-4 season tendency to correct south and east, we'll see if the overcorrection and a light snow is the final verdict.  Beyonf there moderation to normal and above later next week and to close the month.

 

Gusting 35 - 405here now.

 

[the_other_guy]

13 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

I've moved this winter back down to the C-/C range from a skier's point of view. I cannot give it a higher score at this time because of how it always seems to rain during the holiday weekends this season killing conditions and creating treacherous, icy slopes. Mountains even in Vermont were struggling with heavy icing today and for the first time I can remember, there were widespread refunds. The temperatures have been decent and sustained cooler than average, but it looks like the season may have an abrupt end in March. Our winters are just too short lately. Hoping to still get up to Vermont and the Catskills through the end of March (maybe even a Tremblant trip), but we will see! 

What are you talking about?

 

Adirondacks having a spectacular season.

Im at Belleayre every week with 100 percent terrain open the entire winter

Been the best season in the NE in several years…todays ice and wind aside

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 69 (2022)
NYC: 68 (2022)
LGA: 66 (1976)
JFK: 65 (1976)


Lows:

EWR: 0 (1979)
NYC: -5 (1896)
LGA: 2 (1979)
JFK: 5 (1979)

Historical:

 

1894: According to Grazulis, an estimated F2 tornado hits 5 miles south of Warren, Arkansas. An older woman was killed in one of the small homes that were destroyed. In addition, fruit trees were ripped out and carried a half-mile. Another tornado, estimated F3, killed two people in Claiborne County, Louisiana.

 

1926: A deadly avalanche, Utah's worst, demolishes 14 miner's cottages and a three-story boarding house in Bingham Canyon. Thirty-six were killed and 13 injured. 

1930 - Eureka, CA, reported an all-time record high of 85 degrees, a record which lasted until September of 1983. (The Weather Channel)

1936 - The temperature at McIntosh SD plunged to 58 degrees below zero to establish a state record. (David Ludlum)

1958 - The greatest snowstorm of the mid 20th century struck the northeastern U.S. The storm produced 30 inches of snow in interior New England, including more than 19 inches in 24 hours at the Boston Airport. The same storm produced up to three feet of snow in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region, with 14 inches at Washington D.C., and 15.5 inches at Baltimore MD. The storm resulted in 43 deaths and 500 million dollars damage over the Middle Atlantic Coast States. (David Ludlum)

 

1958: From the 14th through the 17th, one of the most significant snowstorms of the mid 20th century struck the northeastern U.S. The storm produced 30 inches of snow in the interior of New England, including more than 19 inches in 24 hours at the Boston Airport. The same storm produced up to three feet of snow in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region, with 14 inches in Washington D.C. and 15.5 inches in Baltimore, Maryland. The storm resulted in 43 deaths and 500 million dollars damage over the Middle Atlantic Coast States.

 

1973: Snow showers moved across southeast Texas, with most locations only reporting snow flurries. However, the Houston Intercontinental Airport measured 1.4 inches of snow.

1987 - A couple of winter storms, one off the Atlantic coast and another over the south central U.S., produced snow and ice from the Mississippi Valley to the Mid Atlantic Coast Region. Freezing rain produced a coat of ice three inches thick in northern South Carolina, and 30,000 homes around Pee Dee were left without electricity. Parts of south central Kentucky were without electricity for three days following the storm, which was their worst in 35 years. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Santa Ana winds in southern California gusted to 63 mph at Ontario. Heavy snow blanketed parts of Colorado, with 11 inches reported at Strontia. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Low pressure off the Washington coast produced more than a foot of snow in the Cascade Mountains, and more than three inches of rain along the Northern Pacific Coast. Spokane WA was blanketed with 13 inches of snow. Cold arctic air in the Upper Midwest produced all-time record high barometric pressure readings of 31.10 inches at Duluth MN, 31.09 inches at Minneapolis MN, and 31.21 inches at Bismarck ND. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - The biggest winter storm of the season hit the Pacific Coast Region. In northern California, snow fell along the coast, and two day totals in the mountains ranged up to 67 inches at Echo Summit. Snowfall totals in the mountains of southern California ranged up to 48 inches at Green Valley, with 46 inches reported at Big Bear. Up to two feet of snow blanketed the southern Cascade Mountains of Oregon, and 20 to 35 inches were reported in the northern Cascades of Oregon. Up to ten inches of snow blanketed Seattle WA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[SACRUS]

Feb 15 - 17 , 1958

 

NYC: 6.9 inches of snowfall

LGA: 10.1 inches of snowfall

EWR: 13.3 inches of snowfall

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

One aspect of a fast Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet is shortwaves too close together like we are seeing this week leading to a suppressed outcome. So when you have lows coming into the West at the same time as one is trying to amplify along the East Coast it acts as a kicker low or trough. 

The next pattern is a hugger track. These were the string of small snows around NYC this month. Too much amplitude on the Southeast Ridge so we get the lows riding too far north leading to mixed precipitation events. 

And then this weekend was a record setting cutter for an -AO below -5 and a Greenland Block of +500 meters. In the old days we wouldn’t have had a Southeast Ridge link up with such an intense Greenland Block. My guess is that warm water feedback from the record Atlantic SSTs are combining with the faster Pacific to create this pattern. I posted composites a while back showing how in the 1950s to early 1970s when we had troughs in the West and a -AO there would often be a trough in the East instead of a Southeast Ridge. So in this case a little too much spacing between lows leading to one amplifying too much.

So we have been seeing multiple ways not to get the benchmark track which has been a prerequisite since the 1990s for seasons in the 20-30” range and above. This has been a frequent occurrence since the 18-19 winter. It’s possible that this is related to competing marine heatwaves in the Pacific and Atlantic Basins. Could even be the IO marine heatwaves also. But we would probably need a research effort in order to confirm why the Pacific Jet has been following this type of pattern.

Something I find interesting and something we now lack are the west to east bowling ball lows that pass about 100 miles south of us.  These were fairly common in the 80s an 90s and gave us semifrequent 4-6 inch snowstorms (they occurred 2-3 times a winter and although they weren't benchmark tracks, they did not mix or change over and temperatures stayed in the 20s during these events.)  This kind of storm could work in a fast Pacific flow and although they would only give us snow for around 12 hours, they'd still be good for a moderate 4-6 inch snowfall.  But that kind of track, with the low exiting off of Delaware or south NJ seems to have gone away.  Also related to the SE ridge being strong or the suppressive fast Pacific flow? We are always either under the influence of one or the other.  We don't even get the lows along the arctic fronts anymore that also used to dump 4-6 inches of snow.  We had something like that in December but it just wasn't cold enough to give us a substantial snow and break that 4 inch barrier.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

With the southweast progression forecasted for the Wed-THu system - its looks like a generally dry week

 

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

32 / 9 windy and for some 72 hours below the freezing mark and lows in the lower teens inland near single digits.  Storm has been following a 3-4 season tendency to correct south and east, we'll see if the overcorrection and a light snow is the final verdict.  Beyonf there moderation to normal and above later next week and to close the month.

 

Gusting 35 - 405here now.

 

Looks like dry and sunny from here on out to close the month and temperatures hitting the 40s next weekend, Tony?

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Feb 15 - 17 , 1958

 

NYC: 6.9 inches of snowfall

LGA: 10.1 inches of snowfall

EWR: 13.3 inches of snowfall

a three day snowstorm Tony? How much did JFK get?

 

[SACRUS]

 

Feb dep and precip through Feb 16

 

NYC: -0.8 (2.58 in)  Snow: 6.7inches

LGA: -0.5 (2.62 in) Snow 7.3 inches

EWR: +0.7  (2.8 in) Snow 6.3 inches

JFK: +3.0 (3.17 in) Snow 6.4 inches

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 69 (2022)
NYC: 68 (2022)
LGA: 66 (1976)
JFK: 65 (1976)


Lows:

EWR: 0 (1979)
NYC: -5 (1896)
LGA: 2 (1979)
JFK: 5 (1979)

Historical:

 

1894: According to Grazulis, an estimated F2 tornado hits 5 miles south of Warren, Arkansas. An older woman was killed in one of the small homes that were destroyed. In addition, fruit trees were ripped out and carried a half-mile. Another tornado, estimated F3, killed two people in Claiborne County, Louisiana.

 

1926: A deadly avalanche, Utah's worst, demolishes 14 miner's cottages and a three-story boarding house in Bingham Canyon. Thirty-six were killed and 13 injured. 

1930 - Eureka, CA, reported an all-time record high of 85 degrees, a record which lasted until September of 1983. (The Weather Channel)

1936 - The temperature at McIntosh SD plunged to 58 degrees below zero to establish a state record. (David Ludlum)

1958 - The greatest snowstorm of the mid 20th century struck the northeastern U.S. The storm produced 30 inches of snow in interior New England, including more than 19 inches in 24 hours at the Boston Airport. The same storm produced up to three feet of snow in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region, with 14 inches at Washington D.C., and 15.5 inches at Baltimore MD. The storm resulted in 43 deaths and 500 million dollars damage over the Middle Atlantic Coast States. (David Ludlum)

 

1958: From the 14th through the 17th, one of the most significant snowstorms of the mid 20th century struck the northeastern U.S. The storm produced 30 inches of snow in the interior of New England, including more than 19 inches in 24 hours at the Boston Airport. The same storm produced up to three feet of snow in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region, with 14 inches in Washington D.C. and 15.5 inches in Baltimore, Maryland. The storm resulted in 43 deaths and 500 million dollars damage over the Middle Atlantic Coast States.

 

1973: Snow showers moved across southeast Texas, with most locations only reporting snow flurries. However, the Houston Intercontinental Airport measured 1.4 inches of snow.

1987 - A couple of winter storms, one off the Atlantic coast and another over the south central U.S., produced snow and ice from the Mississippi Valley to the Mid Atlantic Coast Region. Freezing rain produced a coat of ice three inches thick in northern South Carolina, and 30,000 homes around Pee Dee were left without electricity. Parts of south central Kentucky were without electricity for three days following the storm, which was their worst in 35 years. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Santa Ana winds in southern California gusted to 63 mph at Ontario. Heavy snow blanketed parts of Colorado, with 11 inches reported at Strontia. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Low pressure off the Washington coast produced more than a foot of snow in the Cascade Mountains, and more than three inches of rain along the Northern Pacific Coast. Spokane WA was blanketed with 13 inches of snow. Cold arctic air in the Upper Midwest produced all-time record high barometric pressure readings of 31.10 inches at Duluth MN, 31.09 inches at Minneapolis MN, and 31.21 inches at Bismarck ND. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - The biggest winter storm of the season hit the Pacific Coast Region. In northern California, snow fell along the coast, and two day totals in the mountains ranged up to 67 inches at Echo Summit. Snowfall totals in the mountains of southern California ranged up to 48 inches at Green Valley, with 46 inches reported at Big Bear. Up to two feet of snow blanketed the southern Cascade Mountains of Oregon, and 20 to 35 inches were reported in the northern Cascades of Oregon. Up to ten inches of snow blanketed Seattle WA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1958 - The greatest snowstorm of the mid 20th century struck the northeastern U.S. The storm produced 30 inches of snow in interior New England, including more than 19 inches in 24 hours at the Boston Airport. The same storm produced up to three feet of snow in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region, with 14 inches at Washington D.C., and 15.5 inches at Baltimore MD. The storm resulted in 43 deaths and 500 million dollars damage over the Middle Atlantic Coast States. (David Ludlum)

 

1958: From the 14th through the 17th, one of the most significant snowstorms of the mid 20th century struck the northeastern U.S. The storm produced 30 inches of snow in the interior of New England, including more than 19 inches in 24 hours at the Boston Airport. The same storm produced up to three feet of snow in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region, with 14 inches in Washington D.C. and 15.5 inches in Baltimore, Maryland. The storm resulted in 43 deaths and 500 million dollars damage over the Middle Atlantic Coast States.

What I find interesting with this storm is there was close to 20 inches in Boston and 14-16 inches in DC and BWI over three days== and yet only around 6 inches in NYC but double digits at the airports? What happened to cause this outcome-- was this a stemwinder?

 

It would be very interesting to see a snowfall accumulation map or KU map from this storm!

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

Feb dep and precip through Feb 16

 

NYC: -0.8 (2.58 in)  Snow: 6.7inches

LGA: -0.5 (2.62 in) Snow 7.3 inches

EWR: +0.7  (2.8 in) Snow 6.3 inches

JFK: +3.0 (3.17 in) Snow 6.4 inches

Tony whats the actual average/mean temperature for the month for these locations-- how could NYC be at -0.8 but JFK is at +3.0, is it because of higher mins from the westerly winds?

 

[SACRUS]

 

1958