February 2025

[LibertyBell]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Factors other than ENSO ruled the roost this winter. There’s obviously been a huge, large scale change in the North Pacific, arctic and North Atlantic. It’s been a predominant -EPO/-WPO/+PNA/-NAO/-AO, cross-polar flow winter. The only thing missing was a strong, juiced STJ, if we had that, this probably would have been a historic, record breaking winter for both snow and cold, definitely rivaling, if not surpassing 95-96, 13-14 and 14-15

it's especially weird because as a la nina after an el nino we should have had a strong juiced STJ and lots of snow

95-96 and 10-11 should have been strong analogs this winter

 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The PV is currently splitting on the Euro. I don't get all the doom . We are tracking a potential big storm next week and another one at the end of the month. 

Like I said if we get 1 or 2 big storms , that would put alot of people above average. 

All the warm forecasts have busted so far this winter. It will eventually get warmer but not until March.

a second storm around the 28th?

[Allsnow]

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The block is very close to where it was for the other 15 times when the -AO reached -4.8 and lower going back to 1969. So it’s not too far north. The greatest difference is that there was no Southeast Ridge in the other dates. So suppression would have been a risk in the old days and not an intense cutter.
 

15 date composite since 1969 with -AO of -4.8 or lower

 

We also have a -pna that has trended stronger 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

a second storm around the 28th?

Possible 

We are entering a favorable pattern. Hope it pans out this time.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We also have a -pna that has trended stronger 

Negative ?

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We also have a -pna that has trended stronger 

look up 1967-68 it's an interesting analog. There were some cold not snowy winters in the 60s in a predominantly -PNA  along with the ones that were snowy.  1962-63 and 1967-68 were similar to this winter.  In both cases the following winter was a snowy el nino winter, so let's see if we get an el nino next winter.

 

[jm1220]

43 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yup, we wasted an opportunity in the snow department. The Nina background still had some lingering effects. So much for the climate change juiced up day after tomorrow storms that were supposed to become more frequent 

Every storm setup is ruined by some random shortwave or destructive interference of some kind. A cold winter like this 10 years ago should have all of us over 40” if not 50” but we’re scraping to 15” for the most part around the city. Ridges/troughs get knocked down or we have confluence in the wrong spot etc because of the Pacific jet spraying random crap at us, so nothing really has room to itself to amplify, or it gets suppressed/booted. Or when the SE ridge does take over again (favored in Nina winters) we get cutters like this one upcoming or SWFEs. We’ll see what happens with this storm coming up around 2/20, looks like the best chance we’ve had all winter, but it can be easily ruined by the factors that have been all winter and for the most part over the past 4-5 winters. Long term, the Pacific jet has to slow down. 

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Negative

This has been one of those cases where the 500mb anomalies have varied from the CPC official PNA index. Most of us on this forum would consider it a -PNA pattern when there is a deep trough sitting over Seattle. It really pumped the Southeast Ridge forcing the gradient further north than NYC wanted to see. 

 

[MJO812]

This weekened is just one cutter in phase 7 then it's over .We didn't cut in January and we aren't cutting after we go into 8.It's snowed three times since Feb 8. I'm fine with that. 

It's going to get really cold for 2 weeks with a MECS most likely . Good things come when the AO drops really low. 

Enjoy everyone and stop glooming.

[MJO812]

Just now, bluewave said:

This has been one of those cases where the 500mb anomalies have varied from the CPC official PNA index. Most of us on this forum would consider it a -PNA pattern enhancing there is a deep trough sitting over Seattle. It really pumped the Southeast Ridge forcing the gradient further north than NYC wanted to see. 

 

But this winter has been colder than the past winter in years. Yes the south has seen more snow than us but we have seen multiple little storms. No one should complain. 

We all might be near normal if we get the storm next week.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This weekend will be our first cutter dropping under 970 mb with a -5 -AO. So the Southeast Ridge got so strong that it prevented the low from sliding to our south like in the past. Should at least be gusts over 50 mph and possibly 60 mph by Monday.

Near record 5.5 sigma 500 mb block around Greenland 

 

The lack of an nao I believe is to blame. This leaves room for a storm to go into the apps. However the strength of the AO kept it from going into Canada and well redevelop East. If the nao was negative there would be no chance of it cutting. 

 

[Nibor]

What’s been causing the pac jet to be on steroids?

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The block is very close to where it was for the other 15 times when the -AO reached -4.8 and lower going back to 1969. So it’s not too far north. The greatest difference is that there was no Southeast Ridge in the other dates. So suppression would have been a risk in the old days and not an intense cutter.
 

15 date composite since 1969 with -AO of -4.8 or lower

 

Brooklyn WX explained before that it was not a Southeast ridge flex but rather an amplifying system. So we have two opinions on this phenomenon. I wish another red tagger would weigh in.

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

But this winter has been colder than the past winter in years. Yes the south has seen more snow than us but we have seen multiple little storms. No one should complain. 

We all might be near normal if we get the storm next week.

I think you are mistaking the description of the pattern as complaints. We were bound to have a colder than normal winter eventually after 9 warmer to record warm winters. Even the summers had 3 colder ones out of the last 15. So 12 warmer summers out of 15 is less impressive than 9 out of 10 warmer than average winters. 

[EastonSN+]

43 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

when will New York get its turn?

In the changing climate you have to move to the Delmarva or Florida to get snow.

 

[EastonSN+]

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

look up 1967-68 it's an interesting analog. There were some cold not snowy winters in the 60s in a predominantly -PNA  along with the ones that were snowy.  1962-63 and 1967-68 were similar to this winter.  In both cases the following winter was a snowy el nino winter, so let's see if we get an el nino next winter.

 

Would be interesting to see as that period mirrored 2000 to 2018 which were dominated by KU events. 

From a large scale perspective I don't think we can compare to those Winters.

[EastonSN+]

20 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Every storm setup is ruined by some random shortwave or destructive interference of some kind. A cold winter like this 10 years ago should have all of us over 40” if not 50” but we’re scraping to 15” for the most part around the city. Ridges/troughs get knocked down or we have confluence in the wrong spot etc because of the Pacific jet spraying random crap at us, so nothing really has room to itself to amplify, or it gets suppressed/booted. Or when the SE ridge does take over again (favored in Nina winters) we get cutters like this one upcoming or SWFEs. We’ll see what happens with this storm coming up around 2/20, looks like the best chance we’ve had all winter, but it can be easily ruined by the factors that have been all winter and for the most part over the past 4-5 winters. Long term, the Pacific jet has to slow down. 

And this is likely the reason we have these long extended multi-decade periods where it seems everything goes wrong for snow events here and the Mid-Atlantic usually scores as well as the mountains of New England. This will work again down the road however how many of us will still be around LOL

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, Nibor said:

What’s been causing the pac jet to be on steroids?

west pac heatwaves near Japan and Indonesia

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

And this is likely the reason we have these long extended multi-decade periods where it seems everything goes wrong for snow events here and the Mid-Atlantic usually scores as well as the mountains of New England. This will work again down the road however how many of us will still be around LOL

first we worry about that asteroid in 2032, who knows maybe that will come close enough to neutralize the Pacific Jet?

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

first we worry about that asteroid in 2032, who knows maybe that will come close enough to neutralize the Pacific Jet?

I think more analysis is needed as we thought that Indonesian Waters would create a semi-permanent 456 mjo which for some reason has not been the case at all. 

Heck even the southeast ridge linking to the nao per Don has increased in frequency but has also occurred in the past per his stats. We do not know how much variability there is since the sample size is small. 

Not saying the above are not true however literally just 6 years from an epic period is not time to state that everything has changed and nothing is going to go back.

I might as well put this in here again does anybody know why the rising Indian ocean temperatures are not discussed if the Indonesian water temperatures rising causes such an effect on our weather?

[EastonSN+]

Was the 6z EPS posted?

[bluewave]

31 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Brooklyn WX explained before that it was not a Southeast ridge flex but rather an amplifying system. So we have two opinions on this phenomenon. I wish another red tagger would weigh in.

In the colder era with colder SSTs too the east an amplifying system would not cause the Southeast Ridge to flex. Those were the composites I posted earlier in this thread. Probably a warm water feedback process becoming more common. This is why strong -PNAs in the old days used to have a Southeast Trough more often and not a Southeast Ridge.

[Monty]

31 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Was the 6z EPS posted?

At TT H144 it looks good. Northern stream lobe a bit further back, southern stream a touch slower, antecedent confluence stronger keeping heights dampened. 

[LibertyBell]

42 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I think more analysis is needed as we thought that Indonesian Waters would create a semi-permanent 456 mjo which for some reason has not been the case at all. 

Heck even the southeast ridge linking to the nao per Don has increased in frequency but has also occurred in the past per his stats. We do not know how much variability there is since the sample size is small. 

Not saying the above are not true however literally just 6 years from an epic period is not time to state that everything has changed and nothing is going to go back.

I might as well put this in here again does anybody know why the rising Indian ocean temperatures are not discussed if the Indonesian water temperatures rising causes such an effect on our weather?

I think people have an uneasy feeling, if we can't crack 20 inches of snowfall with all three DJF below normal temperatures, what will it take? Comparing this winter to 2009-10, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15 makes people more uneasy than anything.  Was this supposed to be a historically snowy winter for us but climate change took it away from us? For the record I don't agree with that since we have found even colder winters with less snow from a supposedly snowy decade in the 60s, but it's still unsettling.

 

*another factor is that the 1960s were a very dry decade, so maybe we are returning to that? But people said that cold and dry were extinct so....

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think people have an uneasy feeling, if we can't crack 20 inches of snowfall with all three DJF below normal temperatures, what will it take? Comparing this winter to 2009-10, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15 makes people more uneasy than anything.  Was this supposed to be a historically snowy winter for us but climate change took it away from us? For the record I don't agree with that since we have found even colder winters with less snow from a supposedly snowy decade in the 60s, but it's still unsettling.

 

*another factor is that the 1960s were a very dry decade, so maybe we are returning to that? But people said that cold and dry were extinct so....

Yeah those who just lived through 2000 onwards I can see panic. Otherwise we see how much of any we shave off of the 1970 to 1999 average.

 

[dseagull]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

And this is likely the reason we have these long extended multi-decade periods where it seems everything goes wrong for snow events here and the Mid-Atlantic usually scores as well as the mountains of New England. This will work again down the road however how many of us will still be around LOL

How many of us?  Depends on if there's a mass extinction event among weenies when the models break hearts and minds for the 19th/20th storm.   Should probably shut down all rooftops and bridges to be safe. 

[Feen]

Looks like GFS 12z is a miss for Thursday

[Yanksfan]

5 minutes ago, SnowLover2025 said:

Looks like GFS 12z is a miss for Thursday

I’m not surprised. This next week is really going to test our patience.

[North and West]

Every storm setup is ruined by some random shortwave or destructive interference of some kind. A cold winter like this 10 years ago should have all of us over 40” if not 50” but we’re scraping to 15” for the most part around the city. Ridges/troughs get knocked down or we have confluence in the wrong spot etc because of the Pacific jet spraying random crap at us, so nothing really has room to itself to amplify, or it gets suppressed/booted. Or when the SE ridge does take over again (favored in Nina winters) we get cutters like this one upcoming or SWFEs. We’ll see what happens with this storm coming up around 2/20, looks like the best chance we’ve had all winter, but it can be easily ruined by the factors that have been all winter and for the most part over the past 4-5 winters. Long term, the Pacific jet has to slow down. 

You’re better at this than me, but doesn’t it feel like just plain old bad luck as well?

I don’t know how much of this is background warming induced (note I’m not denying warming); I just know that it’s snowed in recent memory in warmer winters.

Wondered what you thought.


.

[SACRUS]

 

36 / 7 sunny.  Rain  / snow mix Sat - warmer (40s) Sunday with rain totals liquid 0.75 - 1.25 inches.  Colder overall 2/17 - 2/24 with chance for the coastal / noreaster Wed - Thu.