LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: if this gets too close to the coast and deepens there will be the possibility of mixing issues along Jersey coast and eastern LI - happened during the Jan 96 Blizzard I remember when I lived in Northern Ocean County NJ......probably in other stronger events also...... Indeed, but as long as the mixing just stays way out east or south of us, we'll be fine. In storms like this JFK jackpots even if there is a slight bit of mixing (although don't expect the mixing to get back here)-- see February 1961. Higher qpf > trumps any slight mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said: Feb 17 had unreal consensus best I've seen. Same with dec 2020 in the D4-5 range also March 2001 and January 2015 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 hours ago, RU848789 said: So, the UK is the least snowy of the 3 major global models that have run so far and it shows 12-18" for the entire region for 2/20 and for DC to Boston really. The least snowy. The GFS shows the most with 18-32" and the CMC shows 12-24". I've never seen anything like this before in decades of tracking storms - consensus on an historic east coast snowstorm 6 days out. Obviously, storms like this are rare, so it might not happen at all, but this is as strong a signal for a significant to major snowstorm one is ever likely to see this far out. Euro up next and I have no idea what to expect. What's bigger than BECS? January 2016 was bigger than any I've ever seen, the most widespread 30 plus inch amounts across the most densely populated regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: That includes Saturday so subtract 3 or 4 Great so Delaware would have even more than us since they don't get anything for Saturday. Isnt there a way to run the model just for next week instead of including every storm between now and then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: The pattern will be the best so far this season. The AO is crashing towards negative 5 and when that happens , get ready. buckle up buttercup? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 hours ago, Heisy said: I continue to say that H5 is pretty similar to March 2001. Piece of tpv breaks off and drops down to phase with southern shortwave . it's a triple phaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 hours ago, Metasequoia said: Models have been consistently showing a storm around this time-frame for several days now. Still six or so days away though. Better six days out than ten days out. We just need one more day. When it gets to five days out, it becomes a serious threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said: You guys ever check out the Twitter (X) handle @lockingitin ? They post screenshots of the most extreme model runs, presumably as a joke, given that the handle is named LOCKITIN (all caps) it should be named BUCKLEUP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 hours ago, nycsnow said: Snow map is gonna be 20+ over metro area how many hours would this storm last as per the GFS? it looks like a 24+ hour storm based on the maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 hours ago, Monty said: Yes but is that change correct or noise. Here's the last six runs and we can see some buckling of the northern stream jet but it really takes tonight's 00z run to bring home the bacon. I want it. 00z models are famous for being the first to catch changes because they get new upper air data and they have the highest verification scores. In 1993-94 our storms always trended snowier/icier with the night time runs and they ended up being correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I know better than to get my hopes up for this one. Always wanted to hunt in a blizzard with the dog. Hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 hours ago, rgwp96 said: 5 for 5 if you count the Korean model you mean the upside down model? does it have 81-21 inches for us too? or 42-21 inches? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Thanks Walt, I'm very worried about the winds Sunday night and into Monday too, looks like Wind Warning criteria winds might be on tap. They're bad enough tonight as it is.... Worst probably ridges. Nothing you can do... except shelter what you can and I would not be driving around casually later Sunday night-Monday in the ridge areas. High profile vehicles probably impacted. Offline for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 How dare you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I’m just talking about the overall H5 progression with the tpv dropping south into a separate wave…not the actual results. .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 00z suite was pretty epic. Trying to only check once a day since we’re still 6 days out and don’t want to get caught up in run to run noise. At this point a storm is a possibility, that’s all I got lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Is anyone concerned about how far out to sea the EURO AI is? IMO that’s the risk with next week. I can definitely see how it can turn into a coast/LI/eastern New England special 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Currently 28 back home in HPN, here in western MA it's 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 This weekend will be our first cutter dropping under 970 mb with a -5 -AO. So the Southeast Ridge got so strong that it prevented the low from sliding to our south like in the past. Should at least be gusts over 50 mph and possibly 60 mph by Monday. Near record 5.5 sigma 500 mb block around Greenland 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, bluewave said: This weekend will be our first cutter dropping under 970 mb with a -5 -AO. So the Southeast Ridge got so strong that it prevented the low from sliding to our south like in the past. Should at least be gusts over 50 mph and possibly 60 mph by Monday. Near record 5.5 sigma 500 mb block around Greenland Block is too far north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 33 minutes ago, bluewave said: This weekend will be our first cutter dropping under 970 mb with a -5 -AO. So the Southeast Ridge got so strong that it prevented the low from sliding to our south like in the past. Should at least be gusts over 50 mph and possibly 60 mph by Monday. Near record 5.5 sigma 500 mb block around Greenland The block is too far north where is the Nina February with above normal temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 41 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Block is too far north The block is very close to where it was for the other 15 times when the -AO reached -4.8 and lower going back to 1969. So it’s not too far north. The greatest difference is that there was no Southeast Ridge in the other dates. So suppression would have been a risk in the old days and not an intense cutter. 15 date composite since 1969 with -AO of -4.8 or lower 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The block is too far north where is the Nina February with above normal temps? Factors other than ENSO ruled the roost this winter. There’s obviously been a huge, large scale change in the North Pacific, arctic and North Atlantic. It’s been a predominant -EPO/-WPO/+PNA/-NAO/-AO, cross-polar flow winter. The only thing missing was a strong, juiced STJ, if we had that, this probably would have been a historic, record breaking winter for both snow and cold, definitely rivaling, if not surpassing 95-96, 13-14 and 14-15 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Factors other than ENSO ruled the roost this winter. There’s obviously been a huge, large scale change in the North Pacific, arctic and North Atlantic. It’s been a predominant -EPO/-WPO/+PNA/-NAO/-AO, cross-polar flow winter. The only thing missing was a strong, juiced STJ, if we had that, this probably would have been a historic, record breaking winter for both snow and cold, definitely rivaling, if not surpassing 95-96, 13-14 and 14-15 Yup, we wasted an opportunity in the snow department. The Nina background still had some lingering effects. So much for the climate change juiced up day after tomorrow storms that were supposed to become more frequent 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: So much for the climate change juiced up day after tomorrow storms that were supposed to become more frequent Tell that to New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Despite the snowfall frustrations here on the coast, at least this winter showed we can still get three consecutive below normal (with all caveats) winter months. I would have bet aginst that prior to this winter for sure. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yup, we wasted an opportunity in the snow department. The Nina background still had some lingering effects. So much for the climate change juiced up day after tomorrow storms that were supposed to become more frequent The pac screwed us 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 55 minutes ago, bluewave said: This weekend will be our first cutter dropping under 970 mb with a -5 -AO. So the Southeast Ridge got so strong that it prevented the low from sliding to our south like in the past. Should at least be gusts over 50 mph and possibly 60 mph by Monday. Near record 5.5 sigma 500 mb block around Greenland 1 minute ago, Snowshack said: Despite the snowfall frustrations here on the coast, at least this winter showed we can still get three consecutive below normal (with all caveats) winter months. I would have bet aginst that prior to this winter for sure. At least we saw a white Christmas and a few small events. It also has been cold. Icing on the cake will be a huge storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 22 minutes ago, bluewave said: The block is very close to where it was for the other 15 times when the -AO reached -4.8 and lower going back to 1969. So it’s not too far north. The greatest difference is that there was no Southeast Ridge in the other dates. So suppression would have been a risk in the old days and not an intense cutter. 15 date composite since 1969 with -AO of -4.8 or lower The PV is currently splitting on the Euro. I don't get all the doom . We are tracking a potential big storm next week and another one at the end of the month. Like I said if we get 1 or 2 big storms , that would put alot of people above average. All the warm forecasts have busted so far this winter. It will eventually get warmer but not until March. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: Tell that to New Orleans. when will New York get its turn? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now