TriPol Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 2 hours ago, nycsnow said: Gfs blows the storm up offshore missed us I don't want to be in the bullseye this far out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 11 hours ago, Ji said: @donsutherland1 don….what do you mean by social media forecasting is the Wild West? I finally had a chance to go back to look at the 2/13 0z ECMWF individual ensembles. I'm not sure where he gets the 1-in-4 odds. At 0z, the following was number and share of ensemble members showing 12" or more snow from the storm: NYC: 3 (6%) PHL: 4 (8%) DCA: 3 (6%) The 12z odds were higher, but again they did not even reach 20%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 40 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I finally had a chance to go back to look at the 2/13 0z ECMWF individual ensembles. I'm not sure where he gets the 1-in-4 odds. At 0z, the following was number and share of ensemble members showing 12" or more snow from the storm: NYC: 3 (6%) PHL: 4 (8%) DCA: 3 (6%) The 12z odds were higher, but again they did not even reach 20%. Nothing needs fo be true. It's 2025. Clicks. And the audience is too brain-F'd to even look at past results. We live in a world where sensationalism officially sells more than sex. It's bizarre. It's also sad... but recognizable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Image 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Image 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Def not the 12z run but it’s still a solid event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 You guys ever check out the Twitter (X) handle @lockingitin ? They post screenshots of the most extreme model runs, presumably as a joke, given that the handle is named LOCKITIN (all caps) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irish Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Def not the 12z run but it’s still a solid event Windshield wiper effect. It'll be back. We're gonna get hammered next Wednesday! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Ridge placement looks bad out west. Unfortunately I think the 20th is a southern slider. Parts of Mid Atlantic/SE will end up with more snow than us this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Irish said: Windshield wiper effect. It'll be back. We're gonna get hammered next Wednesday! Thursday works better for me lol but ya seems like that’s also another difference in models some are a wed night early Thursday event others Thursday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Ridge placement looks bad out west. Unfortunately I think the 20th is a southern slider. SE will end up with more snow than us this winter. Yea I tend to agree, trend of winter. But still plenty of time. Next week can be very active models really picking up on a pretty big wind event Monday followed by a storm Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: Yea I tend to agree, trend of winter. But still plenty of time. Next week can be very active models really picking up on a pretty big wind event Monday followed by a storm Thursday Doesn't look any windier than usual. Maybe a low end advisory event at best. Gusts look to cap around 40-45mph but since lapse rates have been unusually strong this season I can see 50mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Doesn't look any windier than usual. Maybe a low end advisory event at best. Gusts look to cap around 40-45mph but since lapse rates have been unusually strong this season I can see 50mph. Past few runs I noticed there’s been some 50-55mph gust showing up on models. Also, just seems like it’s widespread not confined to coast or anything etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irish Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Thursday works better for me lol but ya seems like that’s also another difference in models some are a wed night early Thursday event others Thursday afternoon Yeah, I've seen it's likely a Wednesday- Thursday deal, over overnight early hours Thursday into Friday. Can't wait to see how this plays out... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Gfs might do it for next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irish Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs might do it for next week Anticipating some elaboration... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Image 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, Irish said: Anticipating some elaboration... It's coming up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Certainly improved over 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 It’s gonna be good Image 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Image 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Crawling oh man it’s gonna go boom Image 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 KU 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 OH MY GOD Image 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Snow map is gonna be absolutely stupid Image 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Image 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Still going Image 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Boom goes the dynamite. Over 2' 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Snow map is gonna be 20+ over metro area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 massive change on the GFS 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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