February 2025

[wdrag]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm kind of shocked Mt Pocono only has 3.9 inches of snow this month, Walt!

That's what CoCoRaHs said...the surrounding datapoints look similar. 

I was in the Poconos this morning... their glaze at 2000' was twice mine from overnight (Wantage 0.05-0.08 radial), but essentially not damaging from what I could see nor anything posted in the NWS LSR's. Going to be more serious Saturday night-Sunday morning, 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, wdrag said:

That's what CoCoRaHs said...the surrounding datapoints look similar. 

I was in the Poconos this morning... their glaze at 2000' was twice mine from overnight (Wantage 0.05-0.08 radial), but essentially not damaging from what I could see nor anything posted in the NWS LSR's. Going to be more serious Saturday night-Sunday morning, 

Yes, I'm wondering how bad it will be this weekend, as I intend to go there next week.  I hope it isn't too hazardous!

 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Snowstorm Caboose is a new one.

Phase 8 induced snowstorm Caboose.

anything Phase 8 induced has to be considered a Caboose.

 

[wdrag]

I probably will start a thread this evening or tomorrow morning for 18z Wed 2/19 -Fri morning 12z/21 20, pending 18z GEFS. 12z GEFS was lack lackluster and yet still could be right though I dont think so.  Then the question becomes is much more than 4" and your start end times etc etc.  Looks like powder to me embedded within a cold subfreezing week.  WPC already has us in 10-29% chance 4".

Also the thread for Saturdays roughly 1-maybe 3" LI/CP, heavier nw suburbs where ice will be problem too... that should begin at 7A Saturday, and will include damaging wind gust for 00z/17-00z/18 Sun night-Monday. 

 

Back later, Thanks for posts on modeling etc.

[donsutherland1]

33 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow and that was supposed to be one of our most extensive heavy snow events.

January 2016 didn't either Don?

January 2026 wasn't on the list.

[bluewave]

This is only the 2nd time since 1950 that NYC translated such a low seasonal snowfall total by 02-12 into 20 to 25 days of 1” snowcover. This extension of 12.0” to 21 days has been very impressive. Only rivaled by 80-81 which had 21 days with 10.8”. But 80-81 had a 4.9” event in January while the biggest snow this season to date in NYC has been only 3.0”. So a great job of making so many small snow events last so long on the ground. 
 

2-12-25……21 days..….12.0”

2-12-21……20 days…..33.8”

2-12-15……24 days…..23.5”

2-12-09……21 days…..19.3”

2-12-05….. 20 days…..18.3”

2-12-01…….21 days…..25.4”

2-12-88…….25 days….18.5”

2-12-85…….22 days…..23.9”

2-12-81……..21 days …..10.8”

2-12-78…….21 days……38.6”

2-12-65……22 days……18.8”

2–12-58……22 days……20.8”

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is only the 2nd time since 1950 that NYC translated such a low seasonal snowfall total by 02-12 into 20 to 25 days of 1” snowcover. This extension of 12.0” to 21 days has been very impressive. Only rivaled by 80-81 which had 21 days with 10.8”. But 80-81 had a 4.9” event in January while the biggest snow this season to date in NYC has been only 3.0”. So a great job of making so many small snow events last so long on the ground. 
 

2-12-25……21 days..….12.0”

2-12-21……20 days…..33.8”

2-12-15……24 days…..23.5”

2-12-09……21 days…..19.3”

2-12-05….. 20 days…..18.3”

2-12-01…….21 days…..25.4”

2-12-88…….25 days….18.5”

2-12-85…….22 days…..23.9”

2-12-81……..21 days …..10.8”

2-12-78…….21 days……38.6”

2-12-65……22 days……18.8”

2–12-58……22 days……20.8”

January 1981 was just as dry as January 2025 was, there might be a connection there.

[nycsnow]

Models also hinting at a fairly impressive wind event Monday, gfs euro icon all showing wind gust in the 50-60 with isolated 65 mph range 

[Franklin0529]

Icon looks like it would've been a big hit for next week. Only goes out to 120 though 

[donsutherland1]

It will turn colder tomorrow. Another storm will bring a period of snow changing to rain during the weekend. A 1"-3" accumulation is likely in and around New York City. A few places could see some slightly higher amounts.

The precipitation will likely begin on Saturday and continue into Sunday. A general 1"-2" of precipitation is likely from Washington, DC to New York City. Some locally higher amounts are possible. The temperature could surge into the 50s in New York City and lower 60s in Washington, DC on Sunday.

In the wake of the storm, it will turn sharply colder on Monday. Temperatures could fall into the teens on Tuesday morning from Baltimore northward into New England. The cold will likely persist through the remainder of the week. A storm could bring snow to parts of the East Coast after the middle of next week.

Overall, generally colder outcome is likely during the second half of February. Precipitation will likely be near or somewhat above normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was -5.43 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.663 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.4° (3.5° below normal).

 

[nycsnow]

Gfs continues to show winds 45-55 Monday 

[nycsnow]

Image

 

[wdrag]

2/19-20... nothing right now from me... as other have stated..a thread for this possibility can wait... certainly GFS has misgivings as do some of our group.

Will check again tomorrow.

Walt

[nycsnow]

2 minutes ago, wdrag said:

2/19-20... nothing right now from me... as other have stated..a thread for this possibility can wait... certainly GFS has misgivings as do some of our group.

Will check again tomorrow.

Walt

What are your thoughts about the wind event Monday? Models all seem to be coming into agreement on a solid 45-55 gust event with isolated 60

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It will turn colder tomorrow. Another storm will bring a period of snow changing to rain during the weekend. A 1"-3" accumulation is likely in and around New York City. A few places could see some slightly higher amounts.

The precipitation will likely begin on Saturday and continue into Sunday. A general 1"-2" of precipitation is likely from Washington, DC to New York City. Some locally higher amounts are possible. The temperature could surge into the 50s in New York City and lower 60s in Washington, DC on Sunday.

In the wake of the storm, it will turn sharply colder on Monday. Temperatures could fall into the teens on Tuesday morning from Baltimore northward into New England. The cold will likely persist through the remainder of the week. A storm could bring snow to parts of the East Coast after the middle of next week.

Overall, generally colder outcome is likely during the second half of February. Precipitation will likely be near or somewhat above normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was -5.43 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.663 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.4° (3.5° below normal).

 

Don I see the projected temperature for February keeps getting lower, what are the chances that it finishes below 32.0? When was the last time both January and February finished below 32.0 (and also with total snowfall of both months combined under 10.0 inches)?

 

[nycsnow]

Gfs blows the storm up offshore missed us 

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

Gfs blows the storm up offshore missed us 

Weird evolution. Looks nothing like other models up top

[winterwx21]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don I see the projected temperature for February keeps getting lower, what are the chances that it finishes below 32.0? When was the last time both January and February finished below 32.0 (and also with total snowfall of both months combined under 10.0 inches)?

 

Pretty impressive to be getting below normal temps in all 3 months of met winter. I know this was the first time in 7 years that both December and January were below normal. I wonder how long it has been since all 3 months were below normal like what is happening this winter. Feels strange to be having a cold winter during these days of climate change. 

[cleetussnow]

Nah GFS is on the right track for next week.  Maybe the following wave but lala land.  

I can hear the clock on winter ticking loudly. 

[donsutherland1]

The 18z GFS had a largely suppressed solution. It showed a big snowfall in southeastern Virginia. I've taken the 500 mb map and identified where the features have typically been for blockbuster February snowstorms that occurred after February 7th and the cluster for such snowstorms during the second half of February. Details make a difference. If the ridging is on or off the Pacific Northwest at this time of year, one will be more likely than not to see a suppressed solution. The suppressed solution is consistent with the 500 mb pattern that operational GFS is forecasting.

Fortunately, as this is an operational run at a 6-7 day timeframe, there remains considerable room for changes.

Blockbuster February snowstorms for NYC (February 8-29):

[Northof78]

Should be a classic Gulf of America Miller A

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Pretty impressive to be getting below normal temps in all 3 months of met winter. I know this was the first time in 7 years that both December and January were below normal. I wonder how long it has been since all 3 months were below normal like what is happening this winter. Feels strange to be having a cold winter during these days of climate change. 

I think it might be since 2013-14, not sure? Long time ago regardless.

 

[nycsnow]

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 18z GFS had a largely suppressed solution. It showed a big snowfall in southeastern Virginia. I've taken the 500 mb map and identified where the features have typically been for blockbuster February snowstorms that occurred after February 7th and the cluster for such snowstorms during the second half of February. Details make a difference. If the ridging is on or off the Pacific Northwest at this time of year, one will be more likely than not to see a suppressed solution. The suppressed solution is consistent with the 500 mb pattern that operational GFS is forecasting.

Fortunately, as this is an operational run at a 6-7 day timeframe, there remains considerable room for changes.

Blockbuster February snowstorms for NYC (February 8-29):

Don, didn't you write something about such features not being properly ironed out until 3 days before the expected date of the storm? That means Monday of next week is when we'll have a good idea.

[donsutherland1]

28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, didn't you write something about such features not being properly ironed out until 3 days before the expected date of the storm? That means Monday of next week is when we'll have a good idea.

Yes. That’s why there’s considerable room for change.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Don I see the projected temperature for February keeps getting lower, what are the chances that it finishes below 32.0? When was the last time both January and February finished below 32.0 (and also with total snowfall of both months combined under 10.0 inches)?

 

Here's the full list:

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here's the full list:

Wow and the last time both January and February were below freezing was 2014-15 Don?

It's interesting that two of the four in the above list were in the snowy 1960s decade. 1967-68 is the most extreme of the entire bunch.

 

[donsutherland1]

24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wow and the last time both January and February were below freezing was 2014-15 Don?

It's interesting that two of the four in the above list were in the snowy 1960s decade. 1967-68 is the most extreme of the entire bunch.

 

Yes, 2014-15 was the last such winter.

[wdrag]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, I'm wondering how bad it will be this weekend, as I intend to go there next week.  I hope it isn't too hazardous!

 

I think this is a warnable WS for the Poconos and on up north of I84 due to combined freezing rain accretion preceded. by 2 to possibly 6" of snow Sat aft-eve per ensembles and ops.   The hope is that a lot of the freezing rain depicted is sleet... difficult to remove,  but prevents 1/4" glaze which I think is more damaging for birches and white pines.   Even if the ensembles are too generous with 1.5 qpf, I think 8 tenths will. occur and most of it will be frozen or freezing there... and hopefully mostly snow-sleet.

Additionally, and we dont know yet where this will  ut wherever the glaze is heavy, winds should be gusting 35-50 MPH beginning near midnight Sunday night and if glaze still remains that's a branch breaker-power outage maker  For now low prob until we know ice and temps Sunday.  

So, there are unknowns of course but for sure, at a minimum it will be hazardous Sat aft-night in the Poconos, and nw NJ Sussex County with subfreezing temps and accumulations.

One other supporting piece... I'm starting to track AI EC 2m temp... it did a good job in the cycles leading up to today (12z this morning and now 00z/14) and its comparatively colder than most other models for Sunday morning-midday.  

Also, you'll note the low pressure system trying to move into Central NYS has a lobe of pressure falls along the warm front s of Li.  That focuses some of the heavy qpf there, but also traps cold air in the interior due to a tendency for winds to cross the isobars toward the max Pres falls near LI-Cape Cod. 

 

[Dark Star]

4 hours ago, nycsnow said:

Models also hinting at a fairly impressive wind event Monday, gfs euro icon all showing wind gust in the 50-60 with isolated 65 mph range 

I think the only harder thing the models have to predict than snow, is wind...